The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.
Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.
Mumble points out the Westpoll of 4 marginals suggests a 1% 2pp swing to Labor:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/women_love_julia/
rua and boerwar – pains me to say it but I think caretaker government conventions are just that, they only constrain government. The only constraint is that parliamentary allowances wouldnt properly be available for the trip .
Morrison’s statement might make sense of sorts (whether he meant it that way or not) if it’s read as meaning that Nauru wouldnt talk to him previously but they will now. Hard to see what difference the election period makes to that though – Gough rather famously went to China in opposition after all. Stopping there as the comparisons are getting way too much for me.
Greentard dont know why Grattan doesnt mention NSW? But agreed, there must be a swing TO Labor to come out at 54/46. So why is this excluded?
From the reporting of both the Newspoll and Neislen, it seems as if the MSM doesnt really want the public to notice in which direction the polling is going. Both had a 2% 2PP to Labor
[rua and boerwar – pains me to say it but I think caretaker government conventions are just that, they only constrain government. The only constraint is that parliamentary allowances wouldnt properly be available for the trip .]
Joolia should just say that she thought Scott Morrison was trying to win re-election to a seat that is in New South Wales, Australia, not in Nauru.
scorpio, Abbott says he wont touch workchoices, is denying business the 1% tax cut and wants to increase tax to big business to pay for his PPL. Why would business (except miners) push the coalition t his time around???
Marrickville Mauler@102
Small problem – Gough didn’t visit China smack bang in the middle of a Federal Election 🙂
Nielsen pdf
http://blogs.news.com.au/images/uploads/Nielsen_table_July_20_22_2010.pdf
59-41 in NSW ???
I bet Abbott wishes he had of announced the reintroduction of the Pacific Solution before Gillard’s regional processing centre. She seems to have caught him off guard, and now it looks like they are playing catch up.
The Lib campaign is so unfocussed. You’d think they would devote at least a few days at a time to the same issue.
I really hope this is our last boat people election, and Abbott’s replacement can look to a bipartisan approach
OMG rua, 59/41 in NSW. Isnt this MASSIVE news??
This is an example of when the MSM drive me crazy. Grattan at pains to point out the Qld and WA may be difficult for Labor (true), but the NSW result would result in a pick up of seats, and it is the strongest state in this poll. Why not mention it??
steve,
[Now Pauline Hanson wants to rejoin the Liberal Party because she doesn’t like the way Kevin Rudd was replaced. It’s fast becoming an identifying mantra in Queensland that conservative voters didn’t like the way Kevin Rudd was replaced and so now the people who have never voted Labor have a reason to never vote Labor. ]
They’re aiming at the Howard battler mob which swung across to Howard in 2006 and stuck with him till the Ruddslide in 2007. They are sitting back in the LNP tent at the moment as the Qld polling clearly indicates.
They are the voters that have been the most vocal about Rudd’s demise as it was his personal attraction and being a Q’lander that moved them across from the LNP side of the ledger in the first place.
Those Qld marginals are still recoverable, but the brains trust down south will have to come up with some strategy to neutralise it as an issue with those voters and not just depend on an increased vote in NSW, Vic, SA & Tas to get Labor over the line.
An increased vote in safe Labor seats won’t make up for substantial losses in the 20 marginal Labor seats.
There’s no way that I believe the election is done & dusted and now just a formality and if the Labor campaign team sit back on their laurels now and depend on a 3% swing towards Labor from the debate Sunday night and a nice steady cruise through to the 21st August, they are dreaming.
In the same chart, it shows the ALP getting hammered 46-54 in both queensland and WA. I wouldn’t read too much into that then.
rua @ 107, presumably the Possum will be along at some point to suggest that the overall number is more reliable in terms of MOE etc than the State numbers and the implausibly high NSW number gives reason to think that others such as Qld might be undercooked?
Frank and TTH:
From:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/23/2962335.htm
So the Greens are to blame, as usual.
Andrew,
[Scorpio, Abbott says he wont touch workchoices, is denying business the 1% tax cut and wants to increase tax to big business to pay for his PPL. Why would business (except miners) push the coalition t his time around??? ]
Because they still want it, some of them badly and are apparently still prepared to dig into their pockets to get it back.
The Neilsen poll is interesting for age breakup 18-24yo 74/26 for Labor 57/43 for 25-39 yo 52/48 Labor for 40-54 yo and 54/46 for Libs for 55+
A lot to do with Greens votes which are 21 14 11 8 across the 4 age groups.
Where are Seniors for Julia and Seniors for Bob hiding?
Scorps:
Of course privi, more important to point out in the reporting where Labor is behind rather than ahead.
We have heard so much about the boat people/Western Sydney issue so it is interesting to see NSW as Labor’s BEST state in this poll
[OMG rua, 59/41 in NSW. Isnt this MASSIVE news??]
Has it even been reported? I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere.
With 59-41 in NSW even Turnbull might be in a bit of trouble.
Does anyone know how many seats this would translate into.
[OMG rua, 59/41 in NSW. Isnt this MASSIVE news??]
I would’ve thought the state sample sizes would be too small to draw any sensible conclusions.
[Unless that issue is neutralised here and soft voters can be encouraged to get on board the Gillard express, Qld is shaping up to be a repeat of the 1996 result.]
Ah yes, Poll Bludgers, the lynchpin of the Queensland election results and therefore the reelection of Gillard. William must be amused.
ruawake @ 24
[Sky news just read out an email criticising them for left wing bias. John Mangos (a self confessed member of the Liberal Party) says I think not. ]
I had the misfortune yesterday to read the ‘Daily Telegraph’ while sitting in a hospital waiting room, and I noted with some considerable amusement that Piers Akerman is trying to prosecute the case that the ABC is biased towards the ALP!
Given the current ‘cut and paste’ direct from AAP/News Ltd news and current affairs mentality that pervades all parts of the ABC, I wonder by what conceivable measure Piers can advance such a manifestly untrue proposition?
I suppose we can only conclude that Piers remains seriously and permanently addled by his past indulgences, although I will concede he is, if nothing else, consistent – he has written 1,000’s of opinion pieces over the last decade and more, and they have ALL been pro Coalition and/or anti ALP.
Scorpio, i think your caution re: the Qld marginals is appropriate. What makes you think the Labor is not aware of this and not planning targetted marginal campaigns? Do you really think they will look at the 2PP federally and say we’re home??
Scorps – Your views re Qld are valued and welcomed whether some of us agree with you or not. We’re lucky to have that freedom.
Is Kev really the problem up there? I appreciated your focus group results. It would be interesting to know whether their answers are the same now.
I hear some of the radio you get up there and it seems that Barnaby Joyce and his cohorts have made big inroads into the debt and deficit, Labor is incompetent, BER and insulation, mining tax will lose everyone their job, etc. Joyce is very, very effective noise and he is doing meetings all over the place, assisted by Hockey and Turnbull. His word is gospel to many in my area. Do you not think that this is helping the Coalition vote up there.
Remember that Kev was on the nose with Qlders before the spill.
Meanwhile on the Road with Julia:
Ltep you completely miss the point. Grattan saw fit to make a deal of the Qld and WA numbers, so why not the NSW ones??
And the whole “we’re upset about Kev” queenslander thing is so overblown. They had gone off him before he was replaced, and now they are crying that he was?? Pull the other one.
[Ltep you completely miss the point. Grattan saw fit to make a deal of the Qld and WA numbers, so why not the NSW ones]
You make a good point Andrew. If QLD was about 50-50 and NSW was 41-59 to the Libs Grattan would be all over it. But because it’s Labour it somehow becomes invisible.
Also love how Grattan calls Gillard’s CC announcement not well received, with comments from a Mr Abbott. Mmmm
Frank,
I hope Julia spends the next two weeks in Qld campaigning side by side with Kevvie and gets all those Qld marginals back into the Labor ledger.
It’s possible to do and those soft Labor and battler swingers “can” be brought back on board.
Barnaby & the Nats have been barnstorming Qld for weeks now and the main issue they have been pushing is the Rudd hard done by issue. It had a lot of traction and a lot of local media support. Even Abbott & a number of Lib front benchers gave regional Qld marginals a good work over.
You can bet they will be back, as they already have them in their book or consider them low hanging fruit ripe for the plucking.
The complainants about ABC bias “The Opposition says…etc” are the same people who were complaining that the media were giving Abbott a free ride.
Dont you want the Opposition to be the focus – giving them plenty of airplay is the way to do it. Very little commentary required. Voters have been turned off mightily by Abbott and Co negativeness.
In fact I want to see more of the Nationals on air putting out nonsense and policies that contradict the Libs – bring it on. “National Party says…..”
Don’t complain here – complain to ABC. Its obvious from the typical Internet polls that the raving Right have the numbers on complaints and ABC thinks it is balanced if complaints from both “sides” are about equal.
I’d forgive the SMH if they want to save the NSW results for a story tomorrow! But, I doubt it
Again I ask Scorpio, what makes you think Labor are not going to fight hard in the Qld marginals??
BH,
[Is Kev really the problem up there? I appreciated your focus group results. It would be interesting to know whether their answers are the same now.]
I have not noticed any change whatsoever and the polling figures back me up on this.
See my post @ 133 as to why it is being kept alive. It is the foremost issue that the LNP are campaigning on in Qld.
Frank. thanks for that.
I still haven’t fathomed out how to use Antony’s calculator. Are you able to tell us how may seats Labour would pick up in NSW?
Is that a one way ticket for morrison no point in him returning is there?
Interesting to read in The Age that Rudd has been an “unwelcome distraction” for the Gillard campaign.
I dont think he could have been more low-key. Its the MSM that are giving him way to much attention, yet somehow its Labor’s fault
Meanwhile the bimbo on Channel Oakes:
[I hope Julia spends the next two weeks in Qld campaigning side by side with Kevvie and gets all those Qld marginals back into the Labor ledger.]
I don\’t understand why they haven\’t already done events together in QLD to show unity. And Rudd shoudl\’ve gone out and said that if people are still annoyed that he isn\’t PM, the worst way they could express that is by making Tony Abbott Prime Minister.
Andrew@141
Exhibit a:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/07/23/2962995.htm
The 59-41 NSW result is bigger news in my view than WA/Qld. Everyone accepts that Labor is on the nose in NSW, the MSM narrative has been thus, including an assumption that state Labor’s unpopularity will hurt LAbor federally. Yet here’s a poll which shows a massive result for Labor in NSW, and it goes unmentioned in favour of WA/Qld results. How can this be explained?
[What makes you think the Labor is not aware of this and not planning targetted marginal campaigns? ]
Because they don’t have The Messiah leading them anymore.
Crikey’s grand plan for William Bowe – via First Dog 😛
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/23/great-masterchef-debate-drunk-nudie-shark-bingo/#comments
[Ashleigh Gillon ash_gillon
After keeping us guessing all morning, ]
The poor darling – has she forgotten that Howard rarekt told them where he was going through the 07 election.
59-41 in NSW? Ludicrous.
Gee, the NSW figures in the Nielsen poll must be causing the Libs some pain! Nearly a third of the sample is from NSW (430 ) and while the margin for error is high surely it isn’t high enough to make a 59% 2PP for Labor look anything other than potentially devastating for the Libs in Abbott’s home state!