The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.
Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.
[Talk about reporting through gritted teeth! It’s their ABC!]
The ABC is biased! Everyone knows that!
^ I can also say with confidence that if it was something in the realm of 55-45 then Oakes’ wouldn’t have bothered with it. He wouldn’t have been able to have his “bombshell”.
It’s time 44
I doubt it; most of that capacity already exists. If this money is to increase state interconnector capacity, build a Melbourne Adelaide coastal link, or a central link through SA/Qld for geothermal and gas sources, that woudl all be good. Like I said, my only concern is knowing where it is going.
The one bad outcome would be if this Fed money was just used to bail state or private power operators from paying for the maintenance too many of them have failed to do for years. That is not an “upgrade” it is just fixing the existing system. Likewise, if it is to increase the capacity of suburban distribution grids for population growth again, that is not an upgrade. That cost should be born by property developes, adn headworks charges are supposed to be paid for that purpose.
Sigh, infrastructure was much better when run by engineers who were responsible for it working rather than a bunch of accountants whose only job was to rip money OUT of the system.
Now that we know how little we can trust Labor on climate change, we really need to get these details pinned down: the $1 billion must have been based on some costings. What works were included in the costing?
As an aside, given how weak Labor’s climate change policy now is, it makes you wonder how many unscietnific climate skeptics there are i the Labor Party? Martin Ferguson can’t be alone.
[I can also say with confidence that if it was something in the realm of 55-45 then Oakes’ wouldn’t have bothered with it.]
If we keep getting 54s and 55s then that is a bomb shell cos that would suggest a first term government about to increase its vote and seats.
[Talk about reporting through gritted teeth! It’s their ABC!
The ABC is biased! Everyone knows that!]
Well, Showie, what would you call it when they report that Labor are “edging” the Coalition, when the previous Nielsen showed they had already begun to “edge” the Coalition a fortnight ago?
[the previous Nielsen showed they had already begun to “edge” the Coalition a fortnight ago?]
They must be edging their bets guvnar.
Their ABC still referring to it as a “Gobfest”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/24/2963071.htm?section=justin
Just on the women’s vote, Mega George today:
[Younger voters aren’t afraid of globalisation in the way their parents were. It has taken some years for this trend to assert itself, but there is an inescapable social and economic logic at play.
Twenty- and thirty-somethings are more likely to have tertiary degrees than their parents. They are also more likely to have have experienced multiple career paths.
The girls outnumber the boys with degrees and, notwithstanding the mining boom since 2004, women are the employee of choice for the modern economy, claim-
ing 1.802 million of 3.483 million jobs created since the end of Paul Keating’s recession we had to have.
They are, in short, the model of the flexible worker. Yet the Coalition doesn’t want to know them because the female voter favours Labor.]
I guess what he’s saying is women my age aren’t seeing anything about the coalition’s policies that are attractive, because they’ve essentially ignored us, so why would we vote for them? He goes on to say that Labor’s social policies are attractive to working women (even though its economic policies aren’t – whatever that means), which I see as yet another reason why women would favour Labor and not the Libs.
I expect there are women out there who would vote for Labor just because of Gillard, but I can’t imagine they are in the majority. Frankly, I find it patronising to be told by men that the only reason I’m voting for Labor is because its leader is a woman.
[Their ABC still referring to it as a “Gobfest”]
They are biased! What do you expect!
You can just about hear their ABC cheering him on:
[… Tony Abbott has been campaigning heavily in the resource-rich state, hoping unease over the Government’s mining tax could result in a flow of votes to the Coalition.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/24/2963056.htm
[36
Bushfire Bill
Posted Saturday, July 24, 2010 at 8:32 am | Permalink
…
C’mon Psephos. Tell us again how the ABC doesn’t slant the news towards the Coalition. I like a good fairy story.]
Come on BB, do Labor really want stories along the line, “Liberals are going to be reduced to telephone box status”, that is what 54% is about.
To see the alternate point of view read this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abc-picks-sides-while-the-editor-in-chief-watches-on/story-fn59niix-1225896320487
You have to feel sorry for the ABC, they know they have the balance about right when the complaints of bias pretty much balance.
[I guess what he’s saying is women my age aren’t seeing anything about the coalition’s policies that are attractive, because they’ve essentially ignored us]
Are you a woman? I thought you were a man.
Sorry.
Someone please email/typewriter a letter to the ABC and tell them it’s GABfest.
Whoever is writing these stories is an idiot.
Non-answer noted, Showie.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/24/nielsen-54-46-westpoll-marginal-seat-polls/comment-page-2/#comment-532150
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/24/nielsen-54-46-westpoll-marginal-seat-polls/comment-page-2/#comment-532152
No, definately female.
I’ve worked out whats happening…. a New Zealander is writing the stories!
[Gullard defeands clemate chinge ‘gobfest’]
fredn,
[… You have to feel sorry for the ABC, they know they have the balance about right when the complaints of bias pretty much balance.]
May I refer you to ABC WATCH.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/ABC-Watch.aspx
[Someone please email/typewriter a letter to the ABC and tell them it’s GABfest.]
Write your own letter, we aren\’t your secretaries.
Since when is confessions a female?!
Wow you learn something everyday here. Can’t assume anything with all these strange and vague noms de blog!
[Since when is confessions a female?!]
I think \’she\’s\’ lying. He\’s an impostor!
Scott Morrision is talking about going to Nauru for talks.
It is usually the Government that is constrained by the caretaker conventions. Has the idea that an Opposition should be constrained by caretaker conventions come up before?
Boerwar@71
Check here:
http://www.dpmc.gov.au/guidelines/docs/caretaker_conventions.pdf
[It is usually the Government that is constrained by the caretaker conventions.]
What caretaker convention would limit Sergent Dog Whistle going to Nauru?
[Scott Morrision is talking about going to Nauru for talks.
It is usually the Government that is constrained by the caretaker conventions. Has the idea that an Opposition should be constrained by caretaker conventions come up before?]
I dunno, Rudd pissed off to the U.N for a Job Interview, you tell us.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abc-picks-sides-while-the-editor-in-chief-watches-on/story-fn59niix-1225896320487?from=public_rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Wow, Frank – I opened that link and it’s one humdinger of an ABC bashing by the OO. The fight between Sky and ABC24 will be interesting. Perhaps it’s hurting already.
I can’t get ABC24 – no FTA and it looks as tho Austar is not going to pick it up to add to their ABC1,2&3 channels.
I’ll have to rely on what you guys say about its programs.
Of course some wome are going to vote for Gillard because she is a woman. We don’t know how many.
On the gender thing, I suggest that many men tolerate Abbott being an aggro boof bloke. Many women, OTOH, do not find this particularly attractive.
I suggest that another of the reasons for the gender gap is that there are male misogynists who would vote against Gillard simply because she is a women.
BH
ABC24 is live streamed, if that is technically possible for you.
TTH
You excel at being silly. Apples and oranges.
Rudd was not conducting public policy during an election campaign. Morrison is.
Listen and watch this amazing Tony Abbott conversation with Joe Hockey,
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/6828397/
Darren Laver: pretty much since I was born. I’ve mentioned previously that I’m female, but I suppose maybe you missed it.
[I suggest that another of the reasons for the gender gap is that there are male misogynists who would vote against Gillard simply because she is a women.]
Yes, I think that’s true as well. But, as with the women voting for a woman, I can’t believe these people aer in the majority.
The Australian has an interesting table on most mentioned election issues by medium from July 17 to July 23. Rounded to nearest thousand:
Rudd; 18,000
Climate Change: 14,000
IR: 14,000
Population Policy: 13,000
Border protection: 13,000
Resources tax: 8,000
Education policy: 7,000
Afghanistan: 7,000
Slogans: 4,000
Budget cuts: 2,000.
I am very happy about Hasluck (my home electorate) and of course Canning is looking good for Allanah.
Cuppa
I watch the ABC, I’m watching channel 24, I am enjoying the range of views. In the case of the Liberals, they are hanging themselves, and it is their job, it is not the job of ABC reporters. There is basically nothing there for the reporters to push against. They are a bunch of idiots.
And like it or not Labor are running a very professional campaign, the reporters have something to push against.
That really is the problem, one campaign is being ran by professionals and reported n by professionals, the other is being ran b a bunch of amateurs; what are the professionals meant to do.
Take the bias complaint in the linked article, they didn’t play Abbott’s speech in full, seems to be the crux of the matter.
Well first of all the Liberal minders were not smart enough to give the talk at a university and leave the side door access to the canteen open. The Liberals didn’t get a protester.
I tell you what it really surprised me Labor minders found a protester. The young really aren’t into that sort of stuff. Hell in my day they would have occupied the hall. One arrest, pathetic.
Secondly, the sad truth, the ABC is trying to make the station interesting, there are interesting people in the Liberal party, with interesting things to say. Abbott is not one of them.
Poor Journos 🙂
[I watch the ABC, I’m watching channel 24, I am enjoying the range of views.]
Wrong. The ABC is clearly biased. Just look at the story on the cover of today\’s Australian.
Lead Item on the Hearld Scum’s Website:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/navy-warned-to-brace-for-election-surge-of-asylum-seeker-boats/story-fn5ko0pw-1225896292783
Greentard
And if you read the story they are complaining that they are biased to Labor, that is not the message being ran by the ABC bashers on this blog.
And if the Greens win the BOP in the Senate I will be rightly thrilled 🙂
[And if you read the story they are complaining that they are biased to Labor]
That\’s bias!
[And if the Greens win the BOP in the Senate I will be rightly thrilled ]
Yes that will be good cos the Greens are the only party that supports the NBN and is against the filter.
[Scott Morrision is talking about going to Nauru for talks.]
I hope he won’t be charging us for the trip.
No Greentard, thats people who want to only see one point of view.
An article in the OO, co-written by Geoff Elliott, Michael Sainsbury and Caroline Overington, about how biased the ABC is in favour of the Left.
They cite Red Kerry’s first interview with PM Gillard as not even mentioning the,
Gee, after all the work the OO did “proving” the BER was a “debacle” (never mind the AG’s report which said it ws at least 95% welcomed by all and sundry)… and Red Kerry didn’t trouble the scorers about it. Then there’s batts… why didn’t Kerry bring this up for the ten-thousandth time to remind viewers of how incompetent Labor is? I mean, everyone else has been droning on about the Insulation “catastrophe”, why shouldn’t Kerry? He also didn’t mention Fuel Watch and Grocery Watch, or even the 2020 Summit, some things I’m sure the OO would have been cranky about going AWOL, too, if they’d had the space to list them. So many instances of Labor incompetence and waste to harangue the new PM about, and O’Brien muffed them all. Only the “failed” East Timor initiative got a mention.
But there’s hope. A new breed of ABC journalists is in the offing…
Presumably when Chris, Ali, Annabel and Leigh get into management, when that day comes, then we’ll see some rectification of the egregious wrongs that have been done to the Liberal Party over the decades.
By the way, OO, thanks for your list of likely Coalition sympathisers among up and coming ABC journos. It confirms the suspicions of a few around here.
But seriously…
Articles like this, in their dozens, and complaints and questions in Senate Committee hearings from the likes of Abetz, in their hundreds, put a lot of pressure on the ABC to drift towards the right. They are based on the political predispositions of their authors first, and on the perception that the Coalition is the full equal in political muscle, policy development and voter approval of Labor.
Never mind the cobbled-together sham of an “alternative government” that we are seeing in this campaign. Never mind the backflips and the obfuscations. Never mind the lack of real “First XV” talent on their front bench. Never mind Abbott’s thought bubbles that may or may not be true or survive more than 24 hours. According to its critics, the Coalition is entitled to be presented as in every way the equal of the government, and it is therefore the ABC‘s duty to present them as such. And if the Coalition falls short a little in the presentation stakes, it should as, “required by (its) charter to walk both sides of the street”, give a leg-up to whoever’s on the slippery-slide a bit. That’s the only humane option, isn’t it?
Apart from what I believe to be the fallacy that it is the duty of the ABC to present political stories politically, who does the OO offer up as authorities on this proposition? Gerard Henderson and someone you’ve never heard of,
Wow, a huge depth of experience there. But Naughton has other experience too. In the next sentence we hear:
A nice couple of impeccable, unbiased commentators there. Gerard the plummy think tank guy and the ex-ABC reporter turned Liberal PR man. We can trust those two to get it right on ABC bias. Right?
Then there’s the point Naughton makes: all of us – Lefties and Wingnuts – have essentially the same complaint about how the ABC treats claims of bias. The ABC always adjudges itself to be totally unbiased. Those bland emails we reprint here on PB when we complain to the Corporate Affairs Dept. are sent to rightwing complainers as well. Fancy that!
So where’s the difference between the two sides? It’s this: whingers from the ranks of both sides of politics complain to the ABC and get nowhere, so they cancel each other out. But the real distinction is in the “connected” complainers. While the likes of Psephos deny that the ABC is biased, in an almost masochistic way (as if they enjoy the bias against Labor), the right wing machine – media and politicians – actually do something about it.
We see article after article in the OO and elsewhere about ABC bias towards the Left. We see question after question from Liberal inquisitors in the Senate about it. While Labor politicians are too scared of complaining about the ABC, to the ABC, the Right has no such inhibition.
Until Labor has a weighty voice in the media and, in Parliament, and is prepared to stand up for itself (and not just wimp out of it by denying ABC bias against them exists) the ABC will continue to run anti-government stories. They will continue to editorialize, exchewing reporting for opinionation. They will continue to reprint News Ltd. talking points, interview News Ltd. journalists, cite right wing “think tank” experts like the Sydney Institute and the IPA, and in general parrot the tabloid obsessions that depict our country as a basket case among nations under Labor, when in fact it is so far ahead of the pack that the others haven’t even rounded the turn while we flash past the finish post…. all under Labor.
Labopr has a choice: continue to live out the self-conscious myth that it is somehow not worthy of government, and that therefore the media isn’t biased against it but has in fact, in Labor’s masochistic mind, sort-of gotten it right about their incompetence, or they can stand up for themselves and shout just as loud as their right wing critics. Until Labor gets over its inferiority complex and addresses the issue of blatant media bias, especially at the ABC, it will never be free of its own demons.
It’s time to kick heads, Julia. Get out the footy boots for after the election.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abc-picks-sides-while-the-editor-in-chief-watches-on/story-fn59niix-1225896320487
[Mr Morrison says from Opposition it had not been feasible to start negotiations with another country, but that has now changed because the election is underway.]
Does Morrison believe he can negotiate with another country because the Govt is in caretaker mode? Idiot.
ruawake@94
I believe the Nauru Govt is also in Caretaker mode as well.
Double Plonker.
The opposition is not bound by caretaker conventions. Of course they couldnt come up with an agreement with Nauru, as they are the opposition
If Labor is on 54% national, but only 44% in WA and QLD. Where is the vote?
If you give them 55% 2pp in Vic and SA, they still need to be getting a swing TO them in NSW in order to acheive a national vote of 54%:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=1.2&vic=0.7&qld=-4.4&wa=-0.7&sa=2.6&tas=0&act=2.6&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Greentard,
It’s all in Kingston.
The Finnigans,
[By the way Jules is campaigning and how badly Abbott is campaigning, i have no doubt Queensland will come in OK for Labor. Come in Spinner. ]
I wish I could share your optimism about Queensland. I copped an absolute pasting and derision from Brierfly, Its Time & Ltep last night when I had the audacity to point out that their on-line campaign against Rudd was unhelpful to Labor’s cause in Qld.
There has been no movement here in regional Qld that I can determine and it is IMO mostly due to the Rudd coup factor that I outlined in me focus group survey about four weeks ago.
Unless that issue is neutralised here and soft voters can be encouraged to get on board the Gillard express, Qld is shaping up to be a repeat of the 1996 result.
They can make fun of me for all they are worth, but it is clear from what is being flogged incessantly through the local regional media, that the very thing I have been warning of is exactly what is doing Labor the most damage in regional marginal seats and also outer Brisbane marginals.
But keep it up people and reap the result. Increased votes in safe Labor seats and losing enough marginals and failing to pick up notional Labor LNP seats could still see a hung Parliament or the Libs scrape government together with the Independents.
A lot of water to flow under the bridge yet and the Libs and their media cheer squad, business supporters aren’t going to just lay down and hand it to Labor on a platter.
To which Grog replied:
Gold 🙂