Whom to believe? The first two polls conducted during the election campaign proper have turned in wildly different results. Newspoll has Labor with a lead so overwhelming that The Australian describes it as “solid”. On the primary vote Labor holds the lead for the first time since mid-April, with their own vote steady on 42 per cent and the Coalition down two points to 38 per cent. That translates into a landslide-winning two-party preferred split of 55-45, compared with 53-47 at the previous poll three weeks ago. We are told that Julia Gillard now holds a 30 point lead as preferred prime minister, up from 24 per cent last time. Galaxy on the other hand has turned in its second poll in as many days, this one conducted on Saturday night from a sample of 800 (yesterday’s poll, which had Labor ahead 52-48, was conducted in the last days before the election was called), and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 38 per cent and the Coalition up two to 44 per cent. However, Julia Gillard maintains huge leads on attitudinal questions, in particular “more in touch with voters” (56-28). Both polls have the Greens on 12 per cent. The margins of error are about 3 per cent for Newspoll and 3.5 per cent for Galaxy.
UPDATE: Full results from Newspoll here and Galaxy here. Newspoll has sought personal ratings on Julia Gillard for the first time, which have her at 48 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott’s ratings have sagged heavily: approval is down six to 36 per cent, disapproval up 10 to 51 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 53-29 to 57-27. Both polls also ask voters to identify the best party to handle the economy, climate change and asylum seekers/border security. Oddly, Labor gets better results on items two and three (and the same on item one) from Galaxy.
Other news:
• According to Sid Maher in The Weekend Australian, Coalition polling in the Brisbane area has it “12 points clear of Labor in one marginal seat, and Labor sources concede that the party’s primary vote remains below 40 per cent in some key areas”. Discussing internal polling in Queensland on Insiders yesterday, Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail spoke of “seats that are next to each other, one which has got a 5, 6 per cent swing against Labor, the other one hasn’t budged, no swing whatsoever”. He also related that “even the Liberals are saying they can’t make it in Herbert”.
• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports leaked party research indicates Labor has been focus group testing television advertisements featuring Julia Gillard attacking Tony Abbott on health, education, broadband and WorkChoices, unified by the theme: “Don’t let Tony Abbott take us backwards”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports police are investigating what appear to have been gun shots fired into the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hughes.
• Two men have been reported for allegedly assaulting a Liberal volunteer who was on the campaign trail with Jassmine Wood, candidate for the marginal Labor Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. The incident reportedly followed a dispute over the Liberals’ policies on asylum seekers.
• Drew Warne-Smith of The Australian reports GetUp! will take the Australian Electoral Commission to court over its determination that it would not accept enrolments placed through its OzEnrol.com.au website, which sought to facilitiate online enrolment by having the required signature filled out through a mouse of trackpad.
• Malcolm Mackerras has tipped a slightly increased majority for Labor, of 85 seats to the Coalition’s 65.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research, conducted from Tuesday to Sunday, concurs with Newspoll at 55-45. This is the same result as the previous week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent, Labor steady on 41 per cent and the Greens steady on 13 per cent. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (four points to 52 per cent) and disapproval (three points to 30 per cent), while Abbott’s three point gain on approval (40 per cent) comes out of a lower disapproval. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from her debut from 49-29 to 53-26. Also featured are most important election issues, best party to handle them and some hard-to-read stuff on “Australian values”.
Mr Budgie Smuggler’s problem is that he can’t rabbit on and on about boat people for 5 weeks.
Do the Libs have any sort of economic plan, other than some ridiculous promise to keep interest rates low?
Dee @ 139
[This poll might make voters too comfortable making a protest vote.]
The idea of a protest vote, or the ‘underdog’ effect is a bit of a myth, in my view. There should be just as much credence due to the ‘bandwagon’ effect, ie: voters piling on to the Gillard juggernaut as polling day approaches so they can back the winner.
I am not sure either effect is that large, but for those voters who are less engaged in the political process, I suspect the ‘bandwagon’ is more likely than the ‘underdog’ to be more significant, especially for women this time around.
[Do the Libs have any sort of economic plan, other than some ridiculous promise to keep interest rates low?]
Do they really need one? Most polling suggest the Liberals always hold a lead as better able to manage the economy.
Gillard should call on him to put in writing his ‘never ever’ and for all of his front bench to sign off on it.
She should say that unless he is prepared to do this then his ‘never ever’ line is simply another example where he has lied when under pressure.
[The BIG question for me is “Will Tony lobby FOR a world agreement on climate change or lobby AGAINST it?”]
And what do you suppose the answer to that would be? Given Abbott’s leadership is propped up by extreme denialists I know how I’d answer it.
In the OO today re: SerfChoices:
“We have no plans, no plans whatsoever to make any changes to the legislation. Not now. Not ever.”
Now one of Honest John’s most quoted lines was “never, ever” to the GST which of course everyone believes they had no “plans” to go ahead with when he said it. 🙂
If the front page of the OO is this bad for Abboot third day into the campaign then i think he is in for a world of pain (probably largely self inflicted) over the next few weeks.
Itep
[And what do you suppose the answer to that would be? Given Abbott’s leadership is propped up by extreme denialists I know how I’d answer it.]
I would like to see the question put to him.
Yes the interest rate promise was very Lathamesque. I’m suprised he did pull out the whiteboard and the giant cheque
A Good Lurk @ 142
[Every election Malcolm Mackerras is wheeled out like a tattered Xmas decoration. When did he last get something rightregarding elections?]
Whilst ‘Wrongway’ Mackerras doesn’t have an enviable record of getting election results right, he was pretty well spot on in the 2007 election, not that it would have been hard to predict that result.
that was didn’t pull out
Like any contest, you want and need a good start. This Newspoll is an excellent start for Jules.
But she must not be complacent and cocky. She must work on the principle that it is a 2 horse race – 50-50 at all times.
“The tattered Xmas decoration” is a classic. Anyone seen Barnyard of late? boozing in a corner I suspect
Oh Yes – it a dozzy backflip with triple pike and may well have cut his own throat.
*Conviction* abbott has just walked away from the very thing he and the libs believe so deeply about – IR reform. IR reform has been front and centre for the libs for over 30 years and now on election eve, abbott has blundered into *never ever* – that on top of repeating howards self destructive promise on lower interest rates.
Abbott is blundering into promises that he has buckleys chance of keeping. Great ! 🙂
centaur, Barnaby talked to Jon Faine this morning.
Triton, how did Barnaby go?
Did he come across as drunk?
Dee this *thing* the libs have about brough is curious. A junior poly of very limited experience who was so unpopular that he lost his own seat. But the libs are always looking for a short cut – a massiah to once again lead their cult of greed hatred and bile.
Lets hope they get what they wish for. 🙂
triton @ 149
[On the other hand, A Good Lurk, Hugh Mackay has been on the money in past elections, IIRC. This is what he says this time:
All the polls are clearly telling us Labor will win. Marginal seats can be unpredictable, but most election results reflect the general national mood. And there’s nothing in the present mood to suggest we want more change. Gillard will probably increase Labor’s majority,]
Hugh Mackay is, indeed, a reliable and reasonable voice in social commentary, and he almost always has his finger on the people’s pulse with a high degree of accuracy. I’d give his opinions a high degree of kudos given his proven track record over many decades of accurate and informed socio-demographic commentary. Certainly his opinions are more informed and well reasoned than those of the average media hack scribbling away for the Murdoch empire who are either in thrall to the desires of their boss in New York, or just plain lazy and incompetent.
The Libs really need to promote their younger members, the likes of Hunt and Tony Smith and that woman in Higgins!
Abbott’s problem is that old has beens like Ruddock and Robb and Downer swamp all the media coverage, and it compares unfavourably with Gillard’s younger looking front bench.
Gillard has confirmed that the botched home insulation scheme was ‘a mess’. Good to see she’s not taking up the advice of some who suggest she should claim is as a resounding success.
Oh dear. They just said on Sky that on a radio station this morning Abbott signed a piece of paper guarranteeing no return of Workchoices. The presenter called it “the written truth” by Tony Abbott.
Farcical.
Evan14
[Abbott’s problem is that old has beens like Ruddock and Robb and Downer swamp all the media coverage, and it compares unfavourably with Gillard’s younger looking front bench.]
Plus it is an ever present reminder to the voters of why they booted out the Howard government especially when the old hacks start the sour dough express.
Straight out of the Latham play book confessions. Now for the whote board
Obviously the WorkChoices issue is going down like a lead balloon with focus groups otherwise surely Abbott would just stop talking about it and try and move on. Signing a bit of paper is meaningless and just draws attention to his lack of trustworthiness.
171
They just need to keep mentioning Workchoices to him and he will lose it and go the knukle on someone.
They probably have a internal bet to see who can be first to get him to do it.
[ confessions
Posted Monday, July 19, 2010 at 10:04 am | Permalink
Oh dear. They just said on Sky that on a radio station this morning Abbott signed a piece of paper guarranteeing no return of Workchoices. The presenter called it “the written truth” by Tony Abbott.
Farcical.]
A demonstration of desperation??? Will anybody trust ‘any’ position the Rabbott takes on this issue?
confessions. did he seriously sign a paper, or was that a tongue in cheek comment?
[Triton, how did Barnaby go?]
I was only half-listening while browsing PB. He sounded sober and relatively calm at the beginning. I tuned out completely soon after.
Abbott was dreadful on 3AW this morning – and on Agenda yesterday.
I can’t wait for the debates. l
PNG PM Somare is expected to face leadership challenge today:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/19/2957368.htm?section=justin
Will Thomas Paine be here to give us his views on the leadership change?
evan14 @ 169
[The Libs really need to promote their younger members, the likes of Hunt and Tony Smith and that woman in Higgins!]
Kelly O’Dwyer, the Member for Higgins, is an appalling example of the young members of the Liberal Party – reactionary, incoherent and bigoted, she is the polar opposite within the Liberal Party of the former member, Peter Costello, who was at least a social progressive.
If the egregious O’Dwyer is being held up as an exemplar of where the Liberal Party is headed, then she and her party will end up in the perpetual winter of Opposition because they are unelectable with extremists like her representing their party to the electorate.
Workchoices won’t go away. Abbott can say and do whatever he wants to try to make it go away, but he will continue to face questions about it. Even Scott Morrison was quizzed by Fran Kelly about Workchoices and tweaking when he was on the radio this morning.
[confessions. did he seriously sign a paper, or was that a tongue in cheek comment?]
victoria: that’s what they said – he signed a ‘declaration’ guarranteeing he won’t bring back Workchoices.
[Abbott signs WorkChoices’ death certificate]
From the 3AW website.
http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/3aw-generic-blog/tony-abbott-with-neil-mitchell/20100719-10ghz.html
The Big Ship
[The idea of a protest vote, or the ‘underdog’ effect is a bit of a myth, in my view. There should be just as much credence due to the ‘bandwagon’ effect, ie: voters piling on to the Gillard juggernaut as polling day approaches so they can back the winner.]
I agree with that comment.
This can be filed under “another old person talking about modern times”…but…the world, of course, continues to change, and over the last 6 years or so, (i.e. 2 federal elections), seen much greater rise of vox populi type TV shows, Big Brother, Masterchef(?), maybe others where people get to vote. I also wonder whether the “band-wagon” effect may be signficant federally, as people think Abbott is a joke, like some bad TV show contestant, and seek to ensure that he gets hit with a big vote out of the BB house
I was first thinking about this in the Penrith byelection. Sure NSW Labor is really on the nose (to the extent that Abbott is not); but there was also a fair degree of speculation as to whether it would be a record swing or not. The people voted a record swing…query how much to almost fulfil a Big Brother expectation of big swing to vote Labor out of the house….
..anyway, back after some more caffeine and hopefully more coherence 😉
Abbott is making a Great Big Mess.
News from Hughes 🙁
[ FEDERAL Labor candidate has fled his Engadine home with his wife and two children after suspected shots were fired into their house.
Brent Thomas, the candidate for Hughes, was preparing to leave home at 5am on Friday when an unidentified object struck their house.
A hole was left in the front wall, only centimetres from the window of a bedroom where Mr Thomas was getting dressed, News Limited reported.
It follows a similar attack on his Moorebank campaign office earlier in the week in which a projectile was fired through the shopfront window.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-candidate-flees-after-two-suspected-shootings-20100719-10g90.html
WorkChoices won’t go away because during an election the Rabbott wishes it to. One only has to read Battlelines to realise that even the Rabbott’s written word means diddly squat.
[he signed a ‘declaration’ guarranteeing he won’t bring back Workchoices.]
But what exactly does he mean by “WorkChoices”? Technically he’s right because it won’t be called that, but will he bring back its substance? If what he signed just rules out the name then he’s put his foot in it again because Labor was already running the theme that he’s only killed off the name.
I can’t find any proper history of the Galaxy polling on their website, just the polls they took directly before elections. I got the feeling especially in the last federal election and possibly also the one before, that they spent the entire campaign a couple of points higher for the Coalition than anybody else. And when the late swing came back to the incumbent, their polling didn’t reflect it. So their basis for the claim of accuracy is only dependent upon that very last poll.
So I’d probably trust their very last poll this time around, and nothing else up to that point. They seem to spend a lot of time being the spoiler, giving the News Ltd people something to cling to for the bulk of the campaign.
I’d trust that 44 primary for the Coalition about as much as that 38 Newspoll gave us – not much.
Is there a debate confirmed for next Sunday?
triton
[But what exactly does he mean by “WorkChoices”? Technically he’s right because it won’t be called that, but will he bring back its substance? If what he signed just rules out the name then he’s put his foot in it again because Labor was already running the theme that he’s only killed off the name.]
He’s a slippery reptile, who, like his mentor is apt at playing on words to relieve himself of a promise.
Abbort can say what he likes and sign what he likes about workchoices.
The question remains, what are the intentions of Abetz and co who have a different opinion to Abbort.
[Is there a debate confirmed for next Sunday?]
They want to compete with the Masterchef finale?
Kelly O’dwyer’s sole purpose is that of lib party ornament. To sit behind the leader and look pretty on cameras at question time.
Had to laugh flyer came through about public safety forum with her and Bronwyn Bishop. I thought it was a mother daughter ad for something
Triton @ 194
Thats why I was checking. would be crazy to have it this Sunday
Been following the bludger from 2006 but normally just read rather than say anything. Just cannot resist making a comment for the 2010 election though, it is like watching a car crash is slow motion for the Coalition. I would love to not vote for Labor but the Rabbott is so awful..
I don’t know what the hell Abbott is trying to achieve with this WorkChoices nonsense. Liberal HQ must truly believe that it’s the only thing holding voters from flocking to him.
But he ought to realise that just mentioning it is poison, whether he’s talking about keeping it or dumping it. He’s just reinforcing the attachment of the word to his name.
What he needs – desperately – is a bridge from the WorkChoices issue to something positive he can spruik. If, whenever he is asked about it, he can say, “Well, as I’ve said, we won’t be revisiting WorkChoices; what we will be doing is this, this and this, which is a win for all Australians etc….” he can deflect all the interest into a new, positive direction. But a simply denial and further denial is just standing on the same spot, and it attracts journalists like flies to a carcass. And they’ll keep buzzing around until they’re sure it’s dead.
Unfortunately for Tony, he has no fresh meat to offer them right now.
Johhny Cash’s song “what is truth” could be a new theme song, however as everything Rabbott and rabble spout are non core promises they become meaningless in the scheme of things ,Julia keep on rolling.
Abbott confirms ‘never ever’ means ‘not in the next term of government’:
[One caller asked if he would bring back Work Choices-style laws via a “back door” – by tinkering with regulations.
Mr Abbott said the legislation was gone, but admitted individual regulations were made “all sorts of times, to cover all sorts of day-to-day issues”.
“Obviously I can’t say that there will never, ever, ever for 100 or a thousand years time be any change to any aspect of industrial legislation,” he said. “But the Fair Work Act will not be amended in the next term of government if we are in power.
“Obviously I can’t give an absolute guarantee about every single aspect of workplace relations legislation.”]