Nothing to link to yet, but the Channel Nine news has told of Galaxy polling to appear in News Limited’s Sunday tabloids showing Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55-32. On the former count Galaxy has shown impressive consistency: it’s the same result as the poll conducted on the first two evenings of Gillard’s prime ministership (which came with breakdowns for each of the two evenings, both of which had it at 52-48), as well as its poll of last week. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results here. Stability too on the primary vote: Labor and the Coalition steady on 39 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, the Greens down one to 13 per cent and others up one to 6 per cent. A very healthy 67 per cent support an early election (which Patricia Karvelas of The Australian absurdly described as “exceptionally early” – as Possum points out, this was in fact the longest serving first term government since World War II). Labor is rated as less underserving to win than the Coalition, 40 per cent to 30 per cent, but 57 per cent think Labor’s treatment of Kevin Rudd will harm its chances against 37 per cent who disagree.
Tony Abbott makes Billy Snedden look good 🙁
Were the Libs advised by Newt Gingrich when making those “contract” ads?
[Of course, they will probably try and spin this as a Latham-like start, and predict a “narrowing” and voter return to the Libs.]
Except that the Latham start led directly to the Latham finish – net loss of four seats.
If the polling continues to consolidate for the ALP, as I expect it will, the ALP primary at around 42% to 44% is on a par with the 2007 result, and I expect the Greens primary to top out at 8%, at the most 9% come election day. That should yield an election day result similar to 2007 – the ALP at around 53% to the Coalition’s 47% on a two party preferred basis
5 weeks to go, and even those people not very interested in politics will start to refine their opinions and move towards settling on who they will really vote for come 21st August. This election is a bit different from any we’ve had for many years in one major respect – both the leaders are relatively new to their jobs, so in my view, the Preferred Prime Minister ratings will have a bit more significance as to how the electorate ends up voting than in other elections, and on this metric Julia Gillard is streets ahead of Tony Abbott, more than 30 points ahead, if Newpoll is to be believed, and we have no reason to doubt these figures as all of the other opinion polls say the same thing. I believe that it defies credibility to think that Gillard can have such a huge lead over Abbott in the PPM rating, and for this to not be a leading indicator as to how many people will actually vote on the day for their ALP candidate, and by extension for Gillard as their PM.
One other unremarked point by the media pundits – a large chunk of the electorate still make up their minds finally in the last few days prior to the poll, many on election day, or even in the polling booth, and I don’t think it will do the ALP any harm that the majority of the electorate will have to walk past brand new school halls or libraries to vote, or even into these new buildings, all courtesy of the BER programme managed by Julia Gillard.
Show off
“Official Ronald:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/julia-gillard-and-labor-make-solid-start/story-e6frg6n6-1225893666515”
thanks for that , thought it was a joke there
actualy show off still abit of joke i mean 55/45 just is not reel
also you will be pleased to note my grammar school teecher bit here:
on abov link
oz dated SUNDAY 18/7/10 wrote by Dennis Shanegans himself :
“According to the latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian LAST weekend”
so is this a poll from Sunday 11/7/10 , OR has Dennis Shanegans made a blue and upset my luv of proper english grammars
[Speaking of betting – people should be very careful not to read too much into the individual seat markets on Betfair]
In 2007, didn’t something like 80% of the money come in the final week? People basically just waited and followed the polls.
[p.s. I’m looking forward to William returning, hopefully he will pull Shows On into line, his abuse of Truthy is both boring and over the top]
I found it really entertaining.
Assuming 55% is accurate, then what does this make the senate look like?
And if the swing is on in Vic, then please sweep out the awful Sophie Mirabella! 👿
re my post at 1748 that should read Labor should be at least $2.20 in Melbourne (Go the Greens!!!)
[Assuming 55% is accurate, then what does this make the senate look like?]
Depends what you mean by accurate.
Do you really think Labor will get 55% on election day? Hasn’t that only happened ONCE since federation? Since it is so rare, do we really think it will happen again at this particular election?
I think labor will be happy with 52.5% anything more will just be a bonus.
[I don’t think it will do the ALP any harm that the majority of the electorate will have to walk past brand new school halls or libraries to vote, or even into these new buildings, all courtesy of the BER programme managed by Julia Gillard.]
TBS, First time I’ve heard that suggested. Makes good sense to me. 🙂
Speaking of Victoria, I hope everyone has this page suitably bookmarked 🙂
http://filter-conroy.org/index.html
[Assuming 55% is accurate, then what does this make the senate look like?]
It depends what states the swing is in. I think it’s certain that Trood’s seat in Qld and Fielding’s seat in Vic will go to either Labor or the Greens. Labor could win a seat from the Libs in Tas. The Greens will probably win a seat from the Libs in SA, and could win a seat from either Labor or the Libs in NSW, but I think that’s less likely. So maybe a Labor-Greens gain from the Libs of three or four.
Are we doing the WW2 German general analogy again??
About time 🙂
[First time I’ve heard that suggested.]
Oh that’s been around for a while. The Libs have asked the AEC to ensure that all signs and plaques crediting the government for buildings which are used as polling places be covered up. I think that’s a reasonable request actually.
@1761, that’s why the Libs were so pissy over there being signs at each school pointing it out 🙂
The signs are hardly necessary now. Everyone knows who built the halls.
I’m so looking forward to the Liberals/Nationals losing their relevance in the next parliament.
Dennis must have had to grit his teeth to churn that one out. 55-45!
Cue panic stations at LNP HQ.
Psephos@1765
Easy, just cover it with a Big ALP Banner 🙂
Oops Gladstone is of course in Flynn not in Hinkler – Hinkler is Bundaberg and Hervey Bay. Not that any of you lot picked up my mistake.
New thread.