Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Galaxy: 50-50

Whom to believe? The first two polls conducted during the election campaign proper have turned in wildly different results. Newspoll has Labor with a lead so overwhelming that The Australian describes it as “solid”. On the primary vote Labor holds the lead for the first time since mid-April, with their own vote steady on 42 per cent and the Coalition down two points to 38 per cent. That translates into a landslide-winning two-party preferred split of 55-45, compared with 53-47 at the previous poll three weeks ago. We are told that Julia Gillard now holds a 30 point lead as preferred prime minister, up from 24 per cent last time. Galaxy on the other hand has turned in its second poll in as many days, this one conducted on Saturday night from a sample of 800 (yesterday’s poll, which had Labor ahead 52-48, was conducted in the last days before the election was called), and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 38 per cent and the Coalition up two to 44 per cent. However, Julia Gillard maintains huge leads on attitudinal questions, in particular “more in touch with voters” (56-28). Both polls have the Greens on 12 per cent. The margins of error are about 3 per cent for Newspoll and 3.5 per cent for Galaxy.

UPDATE: Full results from Newspoll here and Galaxy here. Newspoll has sought personal ratings on Julia Gillard for the first time, which have her at 48 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott’s ratings have sagged heavily: approval is down six to 36 per cent, disapproval up 10 to 51 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 53-29 to 57-27. Both polls also ask voters to identify the best party to handle the economy, climate change and asylum seekers/border security. Oddly, Labor gets better results on items two and three (and the same on item one) from Galaxy.

Other news:

• According to Sid Maher in The Weekend Australian, Coalition polling in the Brisbane area has it “12 points clear of Labor in one marginal seat, and Labor sources concede that the party’s primary vote remains below 40 per cent in some key areas”. Discussing internal polling in Queensland on Insiders yesterday, Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail spoke of “seats that are next to each other, one which has got a 5, 6 per cent swing against Labor, the other one hasn’t budged, no swing whatsoever”. He also related that “even the Liberals are saying they can’t make it in Herbert”.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports leaked party research indicates Labor has been focus group testing television advertisements featuring Julia Gillard attacking Tony Abbott on health, education, broadband and WorkChoices, unified by the theme: “Don’t let Tony Abbott take us backwards”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports police are investigating what appear to have been gun shots fired into the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hughes.

• Two men have been reported for allegedly assaulting a Liberal volunteer who was on the campaign trail with Jassmine Wood, candidate for the marginal Labor Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. The incident reportedly followed a dispute over the Liberals’ policies on asylum seekers.

• Drew Warne-Smith of The Australian reports GetUp! will take the Australian Electoral Commission to court over its determination that it would not accept enrolments placed through its OzEnrol.com.au website, which sought to facilitiate online enrolment by having the required signature filled out through a mouse of trackpad.

• Malcolm Mackerras has tipped a slightly increased majority for Labor, of 85 seats to the Coalition’s 65.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research, conducted from Tuesday to Sunday, concurs with Newspoll at 55-45. This is the same result as the previous week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent, Labor steady on 41 per cent and the Greens steady on 13 per cent. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (four points to 52 per cent) and disapproval (three points to 30 per cent), while Abbott’s three point gain on approval (40 per cent) comes out of a lower disapproval. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from her debut from 49-29 to 53-26. Also featured are most important election issues, best party to handle them and some hard-to-read stuff on “Australian values”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,348 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 27
1 2 3 4 … 27

  2. news.com.au has NOTHING on it’s front page on Newspoll.

    ABC2 stream at bottom of screen – “Labor leads on two-party preferred in Newspoll”… no figures.

  4. to get as far away from Julia as he can next stop for him is Perth where we will be welcomed by openarms/baseball bats/etc etc . He only opens his mouth to change feet, it must be time for him to join the Tour de France or Christmas Island or Nauru or anywhere

  5. If Abbott does poorly in the debate, it is really is curtains for them.
    So while Labor is justifiably nervous and a lot of marginals appear to be volatile, I’d still rather be in Julia’s shoes.

  6. You have got to love News Ltd. papers. On page 3 Herald Sun Galaxy Poll and News Poll figures are shown, then on page 5 it shows people meter (who would you rather have as PM?) Abbott 66.65% Gillard 33.35% Go figure.

  8. [Tony Abbott confirms that Julie Bishop will be foreign minister if the coalition wins the election.]

    Another good reason to vote Labor. 😀

    I wonder if Mesma would put up her hand for the Liberal leadership if Phoney goes down in a crashing heap? 😆

  9. Given the MOEs it may be the real answer is more like the 53/47 Rabotih suggested, which would actually suggest there will be very little change in this election (except in the Senate?). If it is better than that for Labor it woudl still be wise not to be too presumptuous about it.

    That being said, the Labor – Greens preference deal would be great; I have said for some time I wished Labor would bury the hatchet with the Greens and reach a realistic deal. With Abbott running the coalition they won’t evne pass the paid parental leave scheme with the current Senate. Labor will need to deal with the Greens if it retains government and the sooner it is realistic about that the better. Gillard would grow in stature if she could be seen to achieve that. There is a common enemy – unrepresentative nutters like Fielding in the Senate.

  10. I wonder if Mesma would put up her hand for the Liberal leadership if Phoney goes down in a crashing heap?

    If (hopefully – when) abbott goes down at the election, the libs may do a hewson on him, ie keep his around for a while as an interim measure while they sort out who will take them into the 2013 poll.

    I think they know hockey hasn’t got what it takes. Turnbull would be formidable but has heaps of baggage and got so many of his own party offside. Even the libs surely would never put mesma up as leader.

  11. [ With Abbott running the coalition they won’t evne pass the paid parental leave scheme with the current Senate.]

    It’s already been passed.

  12. Very interesting to hear Abbott on ABC radio with Lyndal Curtis. It is clear that the MSM are NOT going to give him a free run. She challenged his contradictions on tax, carbon price and IR. And I see that he made a NEVER EVER pledge on changing the workplace laws. This is what Abbott does, he runs his mouth of in an undisciplined way, then goes to far. ie., not in the next 3 years becomes never.

    In fact, he cant get a clear message out on anything eg. I’m against new tax but I have one of my own- yes but, but it is a social reform one

    Also interested to hear Abbott’s view that the views “in the field” are more important/better for Liberals than polling.

  14. Very subdued headline in the OO. Shanahan must have been fighting back tears. Funny how the report starts with the words “Rudd’s executioners”. By Shanahan’s standards, the moves on PPM and satisfaction are monumental- except of course when they go Labor’s way

  16. Can someone please explain which of these is the gospel truth?

    Probably none, because the libs have no idea WTF their policies are. Apart from regaining power and opposing labor.

  17. I’m a Keating fan but I still got a laugh from Possumn’s last line in this

    [Gillard debuts on the Newspoll satisfaction charts (they left these out for the first Gillard poll) with a satisfied rating of 48, a dissatisfied rating of 29, a still relatively high Uncommitted of 23 – giving us a net satisfaction of +19. Ordinarily we’d say that was a pretty low debut figure for a leader – but we don’t really have anything to compare it too apart from Keating replacing Hawke. Keating’s debut in the polls back at the beginning of 1992 (for Newspoll) had his Satisfaction 21, Dissatisfaction 42, Uncommitted at a surprisingly high 37, giving us a net satisfaction of -21.

    So, by the Keating yardstick Gillard is pretty popular – but then, by the Keating yardstick of raw public opinion approval, so is a dose of clap.]

  18. I don’t expect ABC2 breakfast to emuluate the froth and cheer of MelandKochie, but a few smiles every now and again wouldn’t go astray. Very gloomy this morning.

  19. I don’t expect ABC2 breakfast to emuluate the froth and cheer of MelandKochie, but a few smiles every now and again wouldn’t go astray. Very gloomy this morning.

    Is that *show* being rolled over into abc news24 ? or will it continue as is ?

  21. Slynews has finally woken up to the reality by carrying the first 2 headline news as:

    1. The first Newspoll shows that Labor is 10pts a head a winning election lead.
    2. Greens and Labor Preferences deal.

  22. Did I just hear on the news Tony say “Not ever” in relation to IR changes? He said it about something: “Not next year, not the year after, not ever.” A shift already from not in the next term can only damage him.

  25. Yes, NEWS BREAKFAST will move over to ABC NEWS 24(which starts on Thursday evening).
    The media better put Abbott & his lightweight team under some scrutiny over the next 5 weeks, or at least the non-Liberal hacks in the gallery. 😉

  27. Reports are that JG has armed herself with three attack ads against Abbott. Wonder what context of them will be?

  28. However, I think it’d be a healing gesture if Gillard did a joint campaign appearance with Kevy, in a marginal QLD seat – like Bonner, or Moreton, for instance.

  29. triton. Yes Abbott did just say no changes to IR never ever. Yesterday, it was not for the first three years. Is that considered a backflip?

  30. would be great Evan but would it happen? If they had any sense and belief in the party they would but ego’s are a big thing

  31. Dave
    [I think they know hockey hasn’t got what it takes. Turnbull would be formidable but has heaps of baggage and got so many of his own party offside. Even the libs surely would never put mesma up as leader.]
    In my opinion that is why the Rabbott is trying to court Mal Brough back. The Coalition do not want to be in a position where they will beg Turnballs to take the leadership.
    It will be Brough.

  32. Newspoll at 55% to 45% TPP is as good a start as could have been reasonably expected for the ALP, and there is not one iota of sunshine for the Coalition amidst the unrelieved gloom of these polling results.

    On every metric published in this Newspoll, Abbott is going backwards in a hurry, with the yawning 30 point gap in the Preferred PM now an unbridgeable gulf beyond redemption inside 5 weeks. As soon as Abbott hit the airwaves for the series of interviews he subjected himself to over the weekend, his personal approval ratings plummeted to new lows. The more the voters see of him, the more they dislike him, it’s as simple as that.

    These results also defuse the alleged ‘bombshell’ results from Channel 9’s Galaxy Poll given such a lavish Oakes treatment last evening. The well upholstered veteran commentator was wheeled out to spruik his psephologic wares, but then found himself dumped into the crater left by the Newspoll with him still clutching the dud Galaxy results to his ample bosom. Pension off the old dinosaur!

    Time will tell how long the Coalition cheerleaders in the Murdoch Media will be able to mantain their uniform support for the fast disappearing Abbott. How long before some of these media rats jump the sinking ship?

  33. Yes, it’s a backflip, but that in itself isn’t the main problem. It’s that now he’s less believable than ever on the one issue he wants most to be believed on. It sounds as though he’s willing to say anything to kill off the doubts after ruling out changes for one term didn’t work.

  34. I find it difficult to be objective on the issue of media bias but ABC2 did seem deliberately hostile to Simon Crean this morning. I thought he acquitted himself very well, even managed, at times, to speak in something that sounded like suspiciously real language.

  35. I find it difficult to be objective on the issue of media bias but ABC2 did seem deliberately hostile to Simon Crean this morning. I thought he acquitted himself very well, even managed, at times, to speak in something that sounded like suspiciously real language.

  39. The Big Ship
    My OH said he heard on the morning show that the ALP are terrified of Laurie Oakes.
    What the???
    Sorry to rain on the parade but…….
    Wouldn’t it be far better for the ALP to look like as Gillard puts it, we are on a knifes edge???
    This poll might make voters too comfortable making a protest vote.

  41. Abetz contradicted Abbott’s supposed burying of Work Choices on Saturday – that pledge was already dead in the water. 😀

    One thing that struck me watching Phoney’s TV ad – the shot of the Liberal Shadow Front Bench, with Hockey looking very glum.
    A contrast with Julia’s very slick and positive ad. 🙂

  42. Every election Malcolm Mackerras is wheeled out like a tattered Xmas decoration. When did he last get something rightregarding elections?

  43. Channel 9 is pro-Abbott and pro-Liberals, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Oakes continues to peddle out supposedly bad polls for Labor.

  44. Was Bob Brown rolled by faceless party machine hacks on the ALP preference deal?

    [“The Greens party will be putting out a media release about that in an hour or so,” Senator Brown told ABC Radio today, adding he did not know details of the deal.]

    😉

  45. [triton
    Posted Monday, July 19, 2010 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    “Not ever” and “never ever” are synonyms.]
    Exactly, so therefore Workchoice is a goer, going on previous liberal election promises.

  47. [Tony Abbott has already spruiked his ”15,000-strong green army” several times during this campaign but he hasn’t mentioned that voters would have to elect him not once, but twice, before the environmental force ever got that big.

    When it is due to start, in the second half of next year, its numbers would be more like 2000.]

    Another Abbott sham.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbotts-environmental-warriors-will-be-slow-to-mobilise-20100718-10g4s.html

  48. [It’s that now he’s less believable than ever on the one issue he wants most to be believed on. It sounds as though he’s willing to say anything to kill off the doubts after ruling out changes for one term didn’t work.]

    Abbott wants to defuse every issue except AS.

  49. On the other hand, A Good Lurk, Hugh Mackay has been on the money in past elections, IIRC. This is what he says this time:

    All the polls are clearly telling us Labor will win. Marginal seats can be unpredictable, but most election results reflect the general national mood. And there’s nothing in the present mood to suggest we want more change.

    Gillard will probably increase Labor’s majority,

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/talk-might-be-of-moving-forward-but-spirit-retro-20100718-10g4e.html

  50. Socrates

    [Can someone please explain which of these is the gospel truth?

    Tony Abbott: “Mr Abbott said the Coalition did ”not believe in artificially imposing a carbon price on consumers”.
    Joe Hockey: who said in May a carbon price was ”inevitable”.]

    It think it clear the coalition will do nothing until the world forces Autralia to do so.

    The BIG question for me is “Will Tony lobby FOR a world agreement on climate change or lobby AGAINST it?”

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 27
1 2 3 4 … 27