Whom to believe? The first two polls conducted during the election campaign proper have turned in wildly different results. Newspoll has Labor with a lead so overwhelming that The Australian describes it as “solid”. On the primary vote Labor holds the lead for the first time since mid-April, with their own vote steady on 42 per cent and the Coalition down two points to 38 per cent. That translates into a landslide-winning two-party preferred split of 55-45, compared with 53-47 at the previous poll three weeks ago. We are told that Julia Gillard now holds a 30 point lead as preferred prime minister, up from 24 per cent last time. Galaxy on the other hand has turned in its second poll in as many days, this one conducted on Saturday night from a sample of 800 (yesterday’s poll, which had Labor ahead 52-48, was conducted in the last days before the election was called), and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 38 per cent and the Coalition up two to 44 per cent. However, Julia Gillard maintains huge leads on attitudinal questions, in particular “more in touch with voters” (56-28). Both polls have the Greens on 12 per cent. The margins of error are about 3 per cent for Newspoll and 3.5 per cent for Galaxy.
UPDATE: Full results from Newspoll here and Galaxy here. Newspoll has sought personal ratings on Julia Gillard for the first time, which have her at 48 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott’s ratings have sagged heavily: approval is down six to 36 per cent, disapproval up 10 to 51 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 53-29 to 57-27. Both polls also ask voters to identify the best party to handle the economy, climate change and asylum seekers/border security. Oddly, Labor gets better results on items two and three (and the same on item one) from Galaxy.
Other news:
• According to Sid Maher in The Weekend Australian, Coalition polling in the Brisbane area has it “12 points clear of Labor in one marginal seat, and Labor sources concede that the party’s primary vote remains below 40 per cent in some key areas”. Discussing internal polling in Queensland on Insiders yesterday, Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail spoke of “seats that are next to each other, one which has got a 5, 6 per cent swing against Labor, the other one hasn’t budged, no swing whatsoever”. He also related that “even the Liberals are saying they can’t make it in Herbert”.
• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports leaked party research indicates Labor has been focus group testing television advertisements featuring Julia Gillard attacking Tony Abbott on health, education, broadband and WorkChoices, unified by the theme: “Don’t let Tony Abbott take us backwards”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports police are investigating what appear to have been gun shots fired into the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hughes.
• Two men have been reported for allegedly assaulting a Liberal volunteer who was on the campaign trail with Jassmine Wood, candidate for the marginal Labor Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. The incident reportedly followed a dispute over the Liberals’ policies on asylum seekers.
• Drew Warne-Smith of The Australian reports GetUp! will take the Australian Electoral Commission to court over its determination that it would not accept enrolments placed through its OzEnrol.com.au website, which sought to facilitiate online enrolment by having the required signature filled out through a mouse of trackpad.
• Malcolm Mackerras has tipped a slightly increased majority for Labor, of 85 seats to the Coalition’s 65.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research, conducted from Tuesday to Sunday, concurs with Newspoll at 55-45. This is the same result as the previous week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent, Labor steady on 41 per cent and the Greens steady on 13 per cent. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (four points to 52 per cent) and disapproval (three points to 30 per cent), while Abbott’s three point gain on approval (40 per cent) comes out of a lower disapproval. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from her debut from 49-29 to 53-26. Also featured are most important election issues, best party to handle them and some hard-to-read stuff on “Australian values”.
Oops Gladstone is of course in Flynn not in Hinkler – Hinkler is Bundaberg and Hervey Bay. Not that any of you lot picked up my mistake.
Given those MoEs, the most feasible result is 53:47. Ish.
William “WHOM”? – way to go.
I won’t make predictions on the polls, but I will make another prediction.
The press is going to see the writing on the wall if this, and the next few polls show a similar figure for Labor (even if overcooked). There will come a point during the election when the news services will have to start jumping on board with what they perceive will be the winning side.
They KNOW that ‘authentic’ Tony is not going to ‘improve’ much in his performance. He is who he is and he has been around long enough that if there was improvement in him, then he’d have done so long ago.
Thus, they cannot be seen to be promoting or supporting the ‘loser’. While he was just underdog, he had hope. But once he is seen as gone, the fickle MSM will be forced to desert.
Julia has been calm, professional and Prime Ministerial. She is not about to suddenly drop the ball — she is also a seasoned campaigner.
You’ll suddenly see less of the Akermans and Bolts and Milnes on the news broadcasts. SKY won’t be interviewing them so often, for instance, because all the ultra conservatives will be running scared.
They’ll jump onto the Julia bandwagon because they want to be seen as backing the winner. It might take a couple of weeks, maybe three but watch the worms turn!
[…so overwhelming The Australian describes it as “solid”.]
LOL!
[TBS, First time I’ve heard that suggested. Makes good sense to me.]
I compared Chrissy Pyne’s 2007 result in the booth I voted at with the Liberal result in the same booth at the S.A. election this year. There was a 5% 2pp swing to the Labor candidate.
The booth is the primary school I attended which has a prominent BER project – a brand new library – right at the front of the school that everyone walked past. The actual voting was in the school hall that had been completely upgraded inside thanks to another BER project. Both projects combined cost $1.6 million.
[William “WHOM”? – way to go.]
William is another member of Pebbles’ Whom Cult 😆
[Labor and the Greens are on the verge of a comprehensive preference deal that would boost the government’s prospects of holding on to power while helping the Greens achieve the balance of power in the Senate.
Sources said the deal was close to fruition and more comprehensive than that crunched at the last election, while the Greens leader, Bob Brown, indicated it was all but done.
The agreement would give Labor crucial Greens preferences for House of Representatives seats in all but a handful of electorates where Greens branches will exercise their right to choose otherwise. In return, Labor will direct its Senate preferences towards the Greens.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/greenslabor-preference-deal-20100718-10g33.html?autostart=1
Labor-Greens do preference deal:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/greenslabor-preference-deal-20100718-10g33.html
Apparently Bob Brown was opposed to a comprehensive deal, he thinks it should be left to voters to decide.
Latest Lib Ad – complete with subtitles for the drunk bogans 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qudBB6haJw&feature=youtu.be
delighted to see that, Tom H. Now we’re talking.
Lets CRUSH Abbott together. Then we can get back to bickering.
[They’ll jump onto the Julia bandwagon because they want to be seen as backing the winner. It might take a couple of weeks, maybe three but watch the worms turn!]
Oh, I’m totally expecting The Australian editorial to endorse Labor, even though they have spent the last 3 years attacking nearly everything Labor has done.
55/45 is disneyland stuff
Best Labor result i can recall is Hawkie about 53.5 , so 55/45 just into never never lands , and if Labor gets anywhere near that it will be fortunate I predicts
Also this PPF preferred PM test to me is like a beauty contest , all show no substanse
Think net approval is better test but cannt see it in Newspoll stuff so far printed , but on Neilsen it was holding up Labor vote and Abbott was pulling Libs down , that is good
“Oops Gladstone is of course in Flynn not in Hinkler – Hinkler is Bundaberg and Hervey Bay. Not that any of you lot picked up my mistake.”
I did , but I’m your mate
[Latest Lib Ad]
Frank, The 3rd point in his list is to “Stop Labor’s New Taxes” but no mention of the “Liberals New Tax On Big Business.” How did he miss that one?
[So maybe a Labor-Greens gain from the Libs of three or four.]
I think this is realistic even without the inflated Newspoll. This is the end of the Howard 2004 senate election results, so I assume we’ll see things return to a more realistic reflection of where voting intention stands today.
[I’m so looking forward to the Liberals/Nationals losing their relevance in the next parliament.]
You win the ‘Hubris Tool of the Week award’
[Oh, I’m totally expecting The Australian editorial to endorse Labor, even though they have spent the last 3 years attacking nearly everything Labor has done.]
Oh of course.
“Us? Anti-Labor? But we endorsed them!”
[55/45 is disneyland stuff]
If Labor gets 55 on election day, Gillard will be pissed she didn’t call a D.D.
lefty e
The bridge building is another Gillard win. She’s travelling very nicely.
[Best Labor result i can recall is Hawkie about 53.5 , so 55/45 just into never never lands, and if Labor gets anywhere near that it will be fortunate I predicts]
It’s not the number itself, it’s the momentum that comes with it.
er, which bridge?
[I’m so looking forward to the Liberals/Nationals losing their relevance in the next parliament.]
It will be good though won’t it Glen?
Tom Hawkins@19
And Julias Parents on Sunrise on Saturday Morning sure helped.
to nowhere…
[It’s not the number itself, it’s the momentum that comes with it.]
Rudd was stuck around 55 for most of 2007 but ‘only’ got 52.7 on election day.
Having said that, he was in opposition so you could say the Coalition needed the incumbency factor to get it closer which they don’t have this time.
[which bridge?]
The bridge enabling preference swapping with the Greens.
[It will be good though won’t it Glen?]
No the only thing worse than bad government (Rudd/Gillard) is bad Opposition (Nelson/Turnbull/Abbott).
That is nothing to cheer about. We all suffer as a result and our politicians are roundly a disgrace IMHO.
I’m happy to see it Tom. There’s been way too much BS on that front. Lets all try not to elect Fielding this time, shall we? :0)
Hey, is it just me, or does the lameass LNP tune sound more like “Stand up for re-election” than “…real action”?
Glen, The current opposition is the worst I can recall. They are a disgrace. They tried their best to drag this country into recession for whatever political advantage that would bring them. I hope they get smashed to kingdom come in 5 weeks time.
Apart from that may the best man win. 😉
[That is nothing to cheer about. We all suffer as a result and our politicians are roundly a disgrace IMHO.]
But the Coalition losing for a second time will be good for them and the country in the longer term.
For starters the next Liberal leader will support a price on carbon, Abbott won’t.
Secondly, the NBN will go ahead cos in 3 years the Libs won’t be able to cancel it when some people have access and others don’t. The NBN is the most important infrastructure project the nation has embarked on since the electricity grid.
Also, we will have a hospital system that is effectively funded from the GST and income taxes, which are the biggest growth taxes, instead of the states funding hospitals out of pissy taxes like stamp duty. So that will set the health system on a sustainable footing.
The Coalition effectively spent the last parliament opposing everything in sight. They won’t be able to do that after losing another election, which is good for the country cos things will get done.
[Apart from that may the best man win.]
Ummm Ms Gillard is a woman the last time I checked?
That Libs ad is the single worst ad I have ever seen. In my life. What’s with the little jingle with the words falling over each other? And that young fogey getting cranky about “Labor’s debt”? But I think my favourite bit is after he talks about economics (sort of…) through the ad, he then has a four point plan, and “stop the boats!” just sneaks in like sly little non-sequiter at the end. That poor doofus really has nothing. It’s gonna be fun seeing him get smashed.
[Ummm Ms Gillard is a woman the last time I checked?]
very droll
Jim Hacker for Leader of Liberal Party 😀
Glen@34
Small problem – Paul Eddington died a few years back.
[Oh, I’m totally expecting The Australian editorial to endorse Labor, even though they have spent the last 3 years attacking nearly everything Labor has done]
I’ll believe that when I see it.
[Labor, Coalition look to no-frills campaign]
Posted a few minutes ago at the ABC. So someone is working in the ABC newsroom but that someone hasn’t seen fit to post the Newspoll result. I wonder why.
Ummm Jim Hacker the character never died.
The guy who played him might have from skin cancer but Hacker is better than Tone no matter what.
While everyone seems to think this Newspoll is overcooked, it is interesting that it is almost identical to the last Essential Poll.
If the next Essential is similar or even better, it is going to make that Galaxy look like a real outlier.
ShowsOn @30, yes but its a shame they’re not holding a DD election because that would mean getting the new Senate up and running 6 months early. I predict if Abbott loses he will be a sore loser and be even more obstructionist and use even more petty Select Committee muck raking while he still can.
I predict if Abbott loses he will either resign the leadership or it will be taken from him.
[But the Coalition losing for a second time will be good for them and the country in the longer term.]
It would certainly be good for the country, but would it necessarily be good for them?
All their reactionary Abbott types hold the safest seats with the biggest margins, meaning the moderates (those more willing to act on climate change) are the ones who would lose out in an electoral routing. I think it’s going to be a third Labor term that finally sees the Libs start to wake up and realise they can’t hold onto Howard forever and they have to step into the future and modernise before they will be electorally viable.
pancho, I especially love the ‘real action’ slogan.. it fools noone but the baked on LNP supporters.
[I’ll believe that when I see it.]
I’m almost certain that The Australian endorsed Labor in 2007. Of course they bagged Labor for the duration of the campaign, but then endorsed them as an after thought.
[I predict if Abbott loses he will either resign the leadership or it will be taken from him.]
The Liberals have an automatic spill when they lose an election. I doubt Abbott will even run. It will be Turnbull V Hockey and Hockey will win with the support of the right who hate Turnbull.
The OO also named Rudd as Man Of The Year for his efforts in saving us from recession then they spend every day after that destroying him.
@41, yes, but to whom will Abbott’s puppet masters turn to? My prediction is an immediate coup led by Turnbull. Abbott only squeaked it in with one vote and with one MP unable to attend and two MPs having bi-elections. And not everyone that voted for Abbott is a climate denier – some thought somehow that re-energising the base meant more primaries.
Funi picks Bob Brown:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/who-do-the-pandas-pick/story-fn5rizbk-1225893660105
That must mean Funi is gay, so don’t expect any baby pandas.
[If the next Essential is similar or even better, it is going to make that Galaxy look like a real outlier]
I’m predicting that Essential will be much the same as newspoll.
Dont libs hav any advert sense
‘real action’ slogan just makes people think of what tont PUBLICLY pushed , bike riding and those slim snuggler bugglers