Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Galaxy: 50-50

Whom to believe? The first two polls conducted during the election campaign proper have turned in wildly different results. Newspoll has Labor with a lead so overwhelming that The Australian describes it as “solid”. On the primary vote Labor holds the lead for the first time since mid-April, with their own vote steady on 42 per cent and the Coalition down two points to 38 per cent. That translates into a landslide-winning two-party preferred split of 55-45, compared with 53-47 at the previous poll three weeks ago. We are told that Julia Gillard now holds a 30 point lead as preferred prime minister, up from 24 per cent last time. Galaxy on the other hand has turned in its second poll in as many days, this one conducted on Saturday night from a sample of 800 (yesterday’s poll, which had Labor ahead 52-48, was conducted in the last days before the election was called), and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 38 per cent and the Coalition up two to 44 per cent. However, Julia Gillard maintains huge leads on attitudinal questions, in particular “more in touch with voters” (56-28). Both polls have the Greens on 12 per cent. The margins of error are about 3 per cent for Newspoll and 3.5 per cent for Galaxy.

UPDATE: Full results from Newspoll here and Galaxy here. Newspoll has sought personal ratings on Julia Gillard for the first time, which have her at 48 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott’s ratings have sagged heavily: approval is down six to 36 per cent, disapproval up 10 to 51 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 53-29 to 57-27. Both polls also ask voters to identify the best party to handle the economy, climate change and asylum seekers/border security. Oddly, Labor gets better results on items two and three (and the same on item one) from Galaxy.

Other news:

• According to Sid Maher in The Weekend Australian, Coalition polling in the Brisbane area has it “12 points clear of Labor in one marginal seat, and Labor sources concede that the party’s primary vote remains below 40 per cent in some key areas”. Discussing internal polling in Queensland on Insiders yesterday, Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail spoke of “seats that are next to each other, one which has got a 5, 6 per cent swing against Labor, the other one hasn’t budged, no swing whatsoever”. He also related that “even the Liberals are saying they can’t make it in Herbert”.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports leaked party research indicates Labor has been focus group testing television advertisements featuring Julia Gillard attacking Tony Abbott on health, education, broadband and WorkChoices, unified by the theme: “Don’t let Tony Abbott take us backwards”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports police are investigating what appear to have been gun shots fired into the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hughes.

• Two men have been reported for allegedly assaulting a Liberal volunteer who was on the campaign trail with Jassmine Wood, candidate for the marginal Labor Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. The incident reportedly followed a dispute over the Liberals’ policies on asylum seekers.

• Drew Warne-Smith of The Australian reports GetUp! will take the Australian Electoral Commission to court over its determination that it would not accept enrolments placed through its OzEnrol.com.au website, which sought to facilitiate online enrolment by having the required signature filled out through a mouse of trackpad.

• Malcolm Mackerras has tipped a slightly increased majority for Labor, of 85 seats to the Coalition’s 65.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research, conducted from Tuesday to Sunday, concurs with Newspoll at 55-45. This is the same result as the previous week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent, Labor steady on 41 per cent and the Greens steady on 13 per cent. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (four points to 52 per cent) and disapproval (three points to 30 per cent), while Abbott’s three point gain on approval (40 per cent) comes out of a lower disapproval. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from her debut from 49-29 to 53-26. Also featured are most important election issues, best party to handle them and some hard-to-read stuff on “Australian values”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,348 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Galaxy: 50-50”

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  1. ShowsOn, the Australian editorial aside, what I’d really like to see is the likes of Milne and Bolt finally disappear in ignominy.

  2. [ShowsOn, the Australian editorial aside, what I’d really like to see is the likes of Milne and Bolt finally disappear in ignominy.]
    Michael Kroger is the one I want to see eat his words.

    I want Labor to win, and then Leigh Sales gets Kroger on Lateline so she can ask him:
    [Michael Kroger, how did the Liberal and National parties lose an election to what you call “the worst government in Australia’s history”?]

  3. [It will be Turnbull V Hockey and Hockey will win with the support of the right who hate Turnbull]

    If Hockey becomes leader they’ll lose again in three years time.

  5. [If the next Essential is similar or even better, it is going to make that Galaxy look like a real outlier

    I’m predicting that Essential will be much the same as newspoll]

    And let’s not forget that the last Morgan poll was 54-46 before William adjusted it.

  7. [If Hockey becomes leader they’ll lose again in three years time.]
    If Hockey becomes leader he will support a price on carbon which is all that matters. He isn’t PM material, but if he helps get a price on carbon through the next parliament then that is good.

    To be honest, I will be disapointed if Labor doesn’t get an ETS or carbon tax through in the next parliament. They will have a much more favourable Senate next time. If they end up having to do a deal with the Greens and Xenophon, then so be it. I can’t comprehend that we won’t have a carbon price until sometime after the 2013 election. It needs to be done in the next parliament.

  9. [I suspect we’ll see a Christopher Pyne leadership tilt before 2013.]
    He ran for Deputy Leader straight after the 2007 election remember. But got bundled out in the first round of voting.

    Pyne doesn’t believe in much. If Scott Morrison asks him to run on a ticket as deputy then he would do it. He is only interested in his own self interest, he hasn’t proposed a single policy in 17 years in the parliament.

  10. [I suspect we’ll see a Christopher Pyne leadership tilt before 2013]

    If Christopher Pyne becomes leader they’ll lose by even more than if Hockey took over.

  11. @57, I think Julia is being fair dinkum – we won’t get a new carbon scheme unless or until public opinion has moved back to where it was in 2007. Damn the deniers and the toxic media, but its the fact that presently no government could get one through.

  12. [If Hockey becomes leader they’ll lose again in three years time.]

    I don’t think it will be Hockey who takes them to the 2013 election.

  14. OO:

    # The Australian australian

    Leaders shrinking from growth: THE 2010 poll won’t be about big spending pledges because the politicians are force… http://bit.ly/9x4fsF 9 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Gillard poll gamble paying off: LABOR’S execution of Kevin Rudd appears to be paying dividends. http://bit.ly/c3Punl 9 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    PM vows to share the load on population: JULIA Gillard has broadened her population policy pitch, promising to shi… http://bit.ly/cvDIXX 9 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Labor stakes its reputation: FOR Labor, election defeat next month is too horrible to imagine. http://bit.ly/cgvMzo 9 minutes ago via twitterfeed

  15. no wish to be party poopers but Williams thread lists 2 polls , one Galaxy 50/50 (so there’s a close election to actualy be won) , and Newspoll suggest is fantasy (but i do luv it)

  17. I can’t believe the liberals are using that jingle in a real ad. It seems so old fashioned, a bit like tony really. But maybe stuff like that appeals to swinging voters what do I know. And guy who says “authorised by ..” at the end still sounds like the devil.

  19. [He’s made a difference, He’s showed us how.

    Nixon Now, Nixon Now, More than Ever Nixon Now.

    Nixon Now, Nixon Now, Listen America Nixon Now.]

  23. Plus ‘Nixon Now’ was part of a landslide victory for the Repugs in 72′.

    It’s catchy and tells me that Nixon has made a difference and shakes hands with Mao and making friends with Brezhnev 😀

  26. And the lovely Dolly sang jingles, if I’m not mistaken, usually about soap powder and cornflakes.

    A bit like Abbott’s mob really… all snap, crackle and no pop.

  29. Their ABC Radio News at Midnight WA Time leading with the Ch 9 Galaxy Poll and Tony Burke saying that Labor will win, but then again we will wake up on the 22nd with PM Abbott.

  30. 55/45 to the forces of goodness and light is a pretty good result. 🙂

    Looking at history its almost GOT to be a bit overcooked for the ALP, but if its indicative of the mood in the electorate then The Fibs are in all sorts of trouble.

    Since Abboot was appointed leader i have thought that during the campaign he is going to crack at some point. With polls coming thick and fast, if we get a run like this, how long will he be able to hold it together??

    Front page of the OO must not be a very good read for him over breaky tomorrow morning.

  31. One poll was taken Friday to Sunday ie covers the period both before and after the election was actually called. The second was only Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps having an election date changes people’s focus. Perhaps people resent going to the polls early.

    I know it technically isn’t early but it may be that there is a reaction by some to JG avoiding a period when they can assess her.

  33. Seen adverts from the Liberals and Labor now. Has anyone told the nongs at Liberal HQ that is isn’t student politics. Can’t they afford a advertising agency. Point 4, sorry I can’t hold my nose that hard, the current collection of ratbags can go to hell.

    Didn’t like the labor ad that much either, but at least it was professionally produced. And what is it with the Liberal logo being removed from the Liberal ad, the problems not the party, it’s the right wing crap and a leader that isn’t even close to being prime minister material.

    Perhaps someone in the Liberal party doesn’t want the brand damaged anymore and is refusing to allow the parties name to be associated with the mess that is the current parliamentary wing.

    80+ seats to labor, believe news poll.

  35. yay the ABC have woken up at last.

    [Labor’s leadership change appears to be paying off, with the first Newspoll conducted since Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the federal election showing the ALP has a commanding lead over the Coalition.]

    5am news was all doom and gloom Galaxy stuff. 🙂

  36. #4
    [ They’ll jump onto the Julia bandwagon because they want to be seen as backing the winner. It might take a couple of weeks, maybe three but watch the worms turn!
    ]

    When that happens, I am praying we will also see the end of the media bashing.

    Hopefully, it will be replaced with at least some plaudits, some commentary on journalists insightfulness and the even handed way the media is reporting the true facts.

  37. Trigger Trioli looks like a forlorn sad figure this morning on ABC22, like a pricked balloon. It must be the Mewpolls.

  38. What a hypocrite. Abbott accused Jules of “me tooism” and look what he is doing;

    [TONY Abbott has abandoned a proposal to exempt small business from unfair dismissal laws.

    And the sector declared yesterday it had become the victim of politics.

    Employers were disappointed by the Opposition Leader’s pledge on Saturday not to change federal workplace laws for three years and urged Mr Abbott to keep an open mind about industrial reform.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/small-business-a-victim-of-politics/story-e6frg6n6-1225893681603

  40. Trouble with a poll on the upside like this is that the next one is likely to be a correction down a few points, then the headlines will be “Labor losing ground” or “Labor failing to sell connect with voters” etc.

  41. Dino, Dino, Dino, too many slip catches and not enough bowling maidens?

    [DEAN Jones’ 2007 Father of the Year award has been revoked. The shock decision follows an admission yesterday by the former cricket legend that he had an affair for nine years with Sydney flight attendant Kerri-Anne Hamilton and has had a love child with her he is believed to have never seen………. “What sort of fathering is that?”]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/dean-jones-no-top-dad-after-hostie-affair-with-kerri-anne-hamilton-and-love-child/story-e6freuy9-1225893649135

  43. This poll will set the mood for the first week, Labor will be bouyed by it, Libs will be wondering if their strategy is sound.

  44. That Liberal ad is sooo wrong. My tax has come down twice in the last 2 years. Be it by about $20 but still that is $1K. My wage has gone up 3.25% each year as well. My child care rebate that was 30% pre 2007 is now 50% paid quaterly- soon to be fortnightly. The stim pacs gave me $2000 in 2008 and $900 in 2009. I can offset $398 for educational purchases and soon school uniforms. My company tax is also reducing by 1%. And the family tax beneefit has consistantly increased.
    Add it all up and I’m $10k better off under ALP.

  45. When you think about it the adds make sense.
    You have to be standing up, not sitting down, so you can move forward.
    What Tone is really saying is stand up Australia so you can freely move forward with Julia.

    Well done Tone.
    Glen does he play for Melbourne kicking own goals?

  49. Not that Gillard’s rather narrow and insular style inspires me that much(I’m hankering for the optimism of Kevin O7), but any Labor leader is preferable to Phoney/Sloppy/Poodle/Ruddock/Mr Mogadon. 😉

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