Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. my blood pressure is up and i think this has a lot to do with it never had high blood pressure before its gone from bein 70/120 to 92/140

    thats another reason to say away from the news for me.
    making a very lovley quilt for my granddaughter I may even make two in the next 6weeks.

  2. [god help us if he was pm i would never ever watch the news again]

    My say, you are welcome to join me and amigo Vera, we will swim down to the deep blue and stay there. :kiss:

  3. Julia Gillard is no doubt locked in the toilet at the Governor Generals residence contemplating her political career.

  4. “If you want a competent team in Canberra you’ve got to change the government”.
    Yes, Tone, you’ve got a really competent team. A real bunch of stars.

  5. my say. Good idea. Enjoy your quilt making. I am not good at that sort of thing. I have some reading to catch up on, that may help.

  6. From Grog:

    Grog GrogsGamut

    I have a feeling the entire Lib’s economic election strategy is based on the RBA raising interest rates next month #aus2010 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

  7. [I have just seen 5 minutes of Abbott’s presser of this morning. I don’t know how I’m going to survive five weeks of him.]

    Yep. Five whole weeks of nasty childish rhetoric from him, being described by the commentators as “strong” and “putting Gillard on the defensive”

  8. Abbott is only promising not to change the unfair dismissal provisions back to businesses with 100 employees and to not remove the no disadvantage test.

  9. [“If you want a competent team in Canberra you’ve got to change the government”.
    Yes, Tone, you’ve got a really competent team. A real bunch of stars.]

    12 Years of economic success and surpluses.

    We won’t see a sniff of Labor budget surplus until at least 2014 assuming they don’t piss away even more money in the meantime(an almost guaranteed in my view)

  10. [my say. John Howard did not have the same effect on me, no matter how distasteful I found him. What is that all about? I don’t understand.]

    yes i agree i think he looks through you when we where young you would meet people like that and say that to each other.

    scary the anti woman vote is around 66 percent so Ari said last week i think that will go up

    did you read the disgraceful piece by a woman on the drum about Julia even mentioned
    woman hood in areas we do not discuss i was appalled and it made me shudder.

  11. Victoria: it’s not just you. I can’t stand him – the shouting, the aggressive demeanor, the over the top hyperbole, the stuttering. Ugh!

  12. [Yep. Five whole weeks of nasty childish rhetoric from him, being described by the commentators as “strong” and “putting Gillard on the defensive”]

    Well he did take care of Rudd and Turnbull, seems Abbott’s got what it takes to do Gillard in as well.

  13. Barry Cassidy mentions that of three key political interviews to be held today/tomorrow the Opposition hasn’t made any of its front bench available. The Government has provided a person for each interview.

  14. Frank – Isn’t it nice that Josh is getting politiness from Kooyongites.

    Yes it is true that pollies normally receive a positive feeling and if the Liberals were getting bagged in Kooyong then that would be lets say just unacceptable behaviour from people that are clearly from the other side of town 😉 (read that thinking of a plum voice)

    I thought both channel 7 and 9 did a good job, and for some reason the ABC’s coverage was nearly impossible to hear.

  15. ruawake@811

    How come all the vox pops done by Gillan in Perth are with people who have pommy accents?

    cos we have too many of the buggers here, along with the Sth Effrikans.

  16. [Kroger is a sour puss in more ways than one.]

    was he on the board of the abc and he the one married to the cannot remmeber his name liberal family daughter years ago.

  17. My say – Ann Peacock.

    The Liberals are so pathetic that the local Kooyong branh refused her joining it. would a daughter of an ALP leader ever be blocked from mjoining an ALP branch. I think not

  18. Abbott’s election themes: incompetence, taxes, debt, boats, Gillard is not really a woman, she is a Prime Minister, and I have three daughters, no Work Choices.

    So, where is the vision thing?

  19. Victoria it was something about sister hood,. i cannot even bring my self to go there
    i actually rang the abc and spoke to some one on the drum
    but he was quite good i said who decides these things he said a panel

    well i certainly let him, know that these things well with my generation and i would say most woman is just not discussed i bet you all know what i am talking about. well the girls will any way. and to discuss our pm in that way and then let it be printed mortified me is there no hope for good manners and decorum any more more.
    I think i belong in Jane Austins days. perhaps i will watch Pride and Prejudice etc every day instead of news also

  20. Finns,

    Should have done on it the back of a Harley with a Chico Roll in hand. Australia’s first Chico Chick PM.

  21. Boerwar,

    [In white… oooh…. looks good. ]

    Getting ready for the wedding ceremony to get wedded to the Australian electorate in her own right! 😉

  22. As predicted by me:

    [Adam Carr Saturday 21 August will be the 67th anniversary of the 1943 federal election, Labor’s greatest ever victory, under John Curtin. Just a thought…
    June 4 at 5:01pm · Comment ·LikeUnlike · View Feedback (6)Hide Feedback (6)]

  23. Two pressers today.
    Both had speech notes – Abbott was a slave to them. Julia hardly ever looked at the.
    Abbott’s delivery was flat, expressionless, stultified and not engaging the audience. Julia’s smooth, genuine, directly spoken to us.
    Abbott essentially negative. Julia essentially positive.
    Julia looked great – Abbott a spiv.
    A telling comparison that won’t go away in five weeks.

  24. [Should have done on it the back of a Harley with a Chico Roll in hand. Australia’s first Chico Chick PM.]

    GG, strewth, that sheila is a bit of an Ok mate. bloody bewdy.

  25. Perhaps this would be a good time to point something out to those waiting for the “blowtorch of an election campaign’s scrutiny” to be applied to Abbott, the Coalition and their policies: they will be almost wholly disappointed.

    There will be a blowtorch, but it will not be pointed at the Coalition. Nor will it be pointed at Labor.

    It will be pointed at “Fantasy Labor”, which will be a fact-free construct run up by the blowtorch pointers themselves.

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