Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Excellent. Very little movement, except some primary back to the Greens. Labor still at 40.5% primary which is quite alright for me.

    54.5%-23.5% that Australia is indeed heading in the right direction. Good for an incumbent.

  2. Why does Morgan think that expressing his poll findings to a decimal place makes any sense at all? Who is he trying to fool? This latest batch of polls are all basically saying the same thing: Labor starts ahead (assuming we are about to start), but not overwhelmingly so.

  3. [William, it says 54.5-45.5, not 53.5-46.5]

    William is reporting preferences as 2007 election, Gary Morgan has changed the way he reprts stuff.

  4. [ 54.5%-23.5% that Australia is indeed heading in the right direction. Good for an incumbent. ]

    Definitely. It’s what many people will be thinking (although perhaps not quite in those words) when they stand in front of the ballot paper.

  5. Taking the Morgan poll at face value, it is interesting that most of the movement of the ALP (-5) has gone to the coalition (+3) rather than to the Greens (+1.5) and others (+0.5).

    Most of the other polls have shown the movement to be between the ALP and Greens whilst the Coalition and Others vote was flatlining.

  6. Psephos, Morgan only rounds to the nearest 0.5. Newspoll has taken to reporting to the first decimal place in its last polls before an election. I suspect this is because they were sore that Morgan won in 2007 with its 53-47 phone poll while they lost with 52-48 (it was 52.7-47.3), but would have won if they hadn’t rounded to a whole number.

  7. William

    Thank you for clarifying that. It saves me taking my calculator out!

    Agree with Adam that the so called “accuracy” is quite gratuitous and is probably only there to sound authoritative.

  8. [Taking the Morgan poll at face value, it is interesting that most of the movement of the ALP (-5) has gone to the coalition (+3) rather than to the Greens (+1.5) and others (+0.5).]
    And if we take indicated preferences on face value that improves Labor’s standing markedly.

  9. OK, so what time tomorrow is it all happening?

    Has Gillard booked a time with Quenty?

    For amateur psephologists, it’s like Xmas eve tonight!

  10. I ask again, when was the last time a government went into an election campaign AHEAD 52/48, and what was the result?

  11. Thanks for your reply William. I agree with you that the MSM should have badgered him for a reply, and didnt, rather than whether the phone call itself will be a vote changer

  12. [Taking the Morgan poll at face value, it is interesting that most of the movement of the ALP (-5) has gone to the coalition (+3) rather than to the Greens (+1.5) and others (+0.5).

    Most of the other polls have shown the movement to be between the ALP and Greens whilst the Coalition and Others vote was flatlining.]

    Hold your nose and vote liberal.

    Julie better get going fast, she has lost Rudd’s positive momentum and if she holds much longer she will lose the lead.

  13. [we take indicated preferences on face value that improves Laborโ€™s standing markedly]

    so before i go who is correct here gary dont quite understand
    and what was our prim vote 2007

  14. [I suspect this is because they were sore that Morgan won in 2007 with its 53-47 phone poll while they lost with 52-48 (it was 52.7-47.3), but would have won if they hadnโ€™t rounded to a whole number.]

    The vagaries of polling.

    That they feel they ‘own’ the numbers is interesting. If completely legit (and I am not impugning any pollster) the only control they should have is the way they frame the question.

  15. David Speers on Sky said earlier that JG hairdresss (not her OH) has been asked to come to Canberra tomorrow. Based on that, they believe she will be visiting GG.

  16. Sireggo

    For amateur psephologists, the night before the election is Xmas Eve.

    Today is more like the day the decorations go into the stores and the corny christmas songs start playing!

  17. [David Speers on Sky said earlier that JG hairdresss (not her OH) has been asked to come to Canberra tomorrow. Based on that, they believe she will be visiting GG.]

    Her roots were showing at the Press Club.

  18. [I ask again, when was the last time a government went into an election campaign AHEAD 52/48, and what was the result?]

    Howard in 2001? (He won)

  19. my say on one of the blogs for the UK elections posters had to chose an avatar of the Tories, Labour or Lib Dems or i think Independent.

    This might make it easier for bludgers. But it does tie ones colours to the mast sort of thing.

  20. [Today is more like the day the decorations go into the stores and the corny christmas songs start playing!]
    That usually happens sometime in late October these days.

  21. Glory if it was a phone poll then if i were a Laborite I’d be giddy.

    It’s a FTF so take the result on face value pardon the pun.

  22. [so that look ok or am not seeing this correctly.]

    Morgan is normally held to over-estimate the Labor vote somewhat. I’d also use the 53.5/46.5 result that William is using as I’m pretty sure past experience tells us we should prefer the formulas using preference flows from the previous elections.

  23. My Say

    FTF polls usually slightly overestimate the ALP vote. The telephone polls being more reliable. But frankly, I don’t think you have too much to worry about … unless your beloved Kevin makes a nuisance of himself.

  24. [32 Glen
    Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 6:28 pm | Permalink
    my say on one of the blogs for the UK elections posters had to chose an avatar of the Tories, Labour or Lib Dems or i think Independent. ]

    are they the ones i was told about when you click on the symbol i am a bit worried i may have to change my name and also may muck it all up so to speak

    also every time i leave the site if i shut down my computer or just click the X i have to re load my pass word do you all have to do that.

  25. Glen

    Is there anybody else in your Bruce Billson for PM club, or is it some fetish that you have conceived on your own?

  26. [my say
    Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 6:26 pm | Permalink
    so is fredn a liberal
    like to know these things helps me reason it out]

    Don’t know what I am to be sure. Had a lot of respect for Rudd, never liked labor’s factions, can’t stand Abbott, think Turnbull will make a good prime minister, think the greens are on the right path but economically irrational. Can’t decide if Fraser or Keating was the best prime minister in my lifetime. As I have voted labor, green and Liberal I think I might be a swinging voter.

  27. [Glen, donโ€™t they have an avatar for Recently Resigned from Tory Party?]

    No if they did I’d consider it but me likes Winston ๐Ÿ˜€

    He was a flip flopper too Tory, Liberal, Tory ๐Ÿ˜€

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