Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Psephos@746

    And still unmarried to Bob Hogg.

    Is that so? I thought they were married. Anyway, the distinction hardly exists anymore.

    Watch the Libs use that against Julia.

    FFS BER.

  2. Frank. It is the 21st century. Argentina (a very christian based society) has just passed law for same sex rights and marriage. If the Libs use her unmarried status as an issue, Australia is stuffed!

  3. ABC NewsRadio ABC_NewsRadio

    Asylum seekers, Economy the main issues in pre-election polling, says Roy Morgan poll boss … (audio) http://bit.ly/a8hwkA half a minute ago via TweetDeck

    And from Grog:

    GrogsGamut

    lol Kroger thinking Oakes’s source could bring down Gillard #keepgraspingkroger 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

    And The Terror:

    dailytelegraph

    Michael Kroger quizzes @LaurieOakes on his informant who helped him leave Gillard silent. Laurie plans to get more from his source. half a minute ago via Echofon

  4. ltep,

    [or those who usually whine about ABC being biased to the Liberal Party, the coverage this morning has definitely been almost completely slanted to the ALP. ]

    Well they “are” the Government and Julia “is” calling the election on.

    Bit hard to not give prominence to that fact.

    Abbott isn’t calling it. 😉

  5. Every election in recent times has been compared as ‘the most Presidential-like campaign ever’. I have no doubt that this will be said again. (With some justification I suspect). Get ready for some appalling ‘reporting’ and plenty of opinion dressed as fact. I wonder if, like the last election, the Canberra Press rat pack will end up being out of step with the wider public…?

  6. Just had a long phone call from our oldest kid who until last Wednesday was totally uninterested in politics and wouldn’t have a bar of it being discussed.

    She said because of that ‘thing’ (Oakes) setting off the media into a frenzy about Julia and Kev having an agreement and then the next day saying there was no agreement she decided to sign on to twitter and wants to join a chorus of dissent against the media and Abbott.

    She said ‘how long has the media thought it owned democracy. Why can’t they just report the news instead of telling us what we should think.’ I said you haven’t really noticed enough because you only listen to sound bites on the news.

    She was a very mild Kev fan but is now a huge Julia fan and is going to do handouts. Julia may have more fans than we know about.

  7. [But the octopus’s reaction to conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott’s photo was less enthusiastic — she turned a “defensive black colour”, the paper said.]

  8. # the_kennel

    “It’s not for someone to win the election, it’s for someone to lose” – Ben Fordham on #channel9 #ausvotes Tips Gillard to win. half a minute ago via web

  9. [But the octopus’s reaction to conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott’s photo was less enthusiastic — she turned a “defensive black colour”, the paper said.]

    So Abbott’s problem with women crosses species?

  10. GrogsGamut

    Kroger outlays Libs election winning strategy – a leak from inside the ALP that will bring down the Govt #aus2010 #graspingatstraws less than a minute ago via TweetDeck

  11. [But the octopus’s reaction to conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott’s photo was less enthusiastic — she turned a “defensive black colour”, the paper said.]

    Frank, thanks. The Octopussy was not impressed with his dongle then?

  12. Slynews is saying at moment that Labor need to do more in area of mental health. I don’t agree much with what they say, but on this issue, I do.

  13. [Slynews is saying at moment that Labor need to do more in area of mental health. I don’t agree much with what they say, but on this issue, I do.]

    and undoubtedly they will an it will be more than the Abbott announcement

  14. [Well I’ve put a big John Curtin pic up at my facebook page, so the election had better be on 21 August, or I’ll have to take it down again.]

    Please remind me – if it’s the 21st when do the rolls close?

  15. she decided to sign on to twitter and wants to join a chorus of dissent against the media and Abbott.

    She said ‘how long has the media thought it owned democracy. Why can’t they just report the news instead of telling us what we should think.’ I said you haven’t really noticed enough because you only listen to sound bites on the news.

    Interesting point – this is the first Federal election held where Twitter and Facebook are “mainstream”.

  16. BIG LETTERS HELP

    I JOINED TWITTER BUT I CANNOT GET TO THE JULIA TWEETS AND OTHERs HOW DO I DO this.

    i put my password in ect and says thats not me wtte i would really like to be able to do this.

    do you get tweets from the people you select to join, i was in Kev’s but never got a tweet.

    proably have not described this well
    should i start again but if i do the system will recognise my email address and say it s taken etc. screeeeeeeeem

  17. [Slynews is replaying Abbotts speech to kick of campaign. I can’t listen. I have a real aversion. Is it just me?]

    god help us if he was pm i would never ever watch the news again

    You know and i think mean that, i would be sick

  18. my say. John Howard did not have the same effect on me, no matter how distasteful I found him. What is that all about? I don’t understand.

Comments are closed.

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