Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. I get the feeling I am going to be feeling very very bad on the 22nd of August…

    from the hangover I have from celebrating the night before… 🙂

  2. [My Say, my version is coming up soon. just need to learn few more correct phrasings. btw where is the Amigo]

    i am wondering to BH may know next time you see bh on screen ask her.

    perhaps treatment. I know she was very up set over kev but i think we need to help her got by that as when you have a cancer scare you need i would think to have all you postive vibes in action.

    Vera where are you we miss you, we need you.

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