Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

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  1. Dennis Atkins plays a straight bat for a Murdoch journalist and I think his take on the Qld seats is probably fairly accurate. The most difficult for Labor are Dawson, Flynn, Leichhardt, Longman and Herbert, but none of them is hopeless. I think Brisbane, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Blair and Moreton are safe. I agree that Labor’s chances in Ryan have receded, but who knows what might happen when Gillard gets out on the road? I think Bowman is still a chance too.

  4. BB @ 53

    [So where’s the dividing line between one poor sampling technique and another poor sampling technique? Why is one poor sampling technique plain wrong and the other unimpeachable?]

    In evaluating any polling, we should make a clear distinction between methodology, which is a description of a research process, and sampling error, which is the deviation or margin of error caused by observing a sample instead of the whole population.

    In the two instances you are referring to (the Westpoll on line poll and Morgan’s marginal seats poll) the fundamental process (methodology) of the newspaper ‘online’ poll is flawed as they are self selecting in that any person going onto this newspaper’s website can access and answer the poll question, so the results reflect nothing more than the biases of that newspaper’s readers, in addition to the ease with which political operatives from any political party can, and do, ask their apparatchiks to access these polls and vote to deliberately skew the results towards their party. Result = nonsense, and not worthy of the description ‘poll.’

    The Morgan poll is not a flawed methodology per se (as far as can be seen from their published data and known information about their work) only a less meaningful set of data because of sample error resulting from the relatively small numbers (200 surveys in each subset) giving a Margin of Error of about 6% to 7%. And all of that has to again be separated from Gary Morgan’s sometime wayward analysis of his own data. Result = some validity, but don’t read too much into them because of the relatively large MOE.

    I have no brief for Gary Morgan, but I do not believe that his company’s published research is wrong, doctored or even overly biased, just needing to be evaluated, like all other company’s working in this area, on their merits and on their historical record of success.

  5. [I read it as a declaration of surrender]

    So does he see it as game set and match to labor?

    this whole saga reminds me of a good old fashioned game of chess

  10. my say

    dennis A is normally quite a good journo,tho normally tad liberal biased

    the most telling point was how the senior lnp source was happy to concede they were stuffed

  17. [The Big Ship
    Posted Friday, July 2, 2010 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill @ 6
    …
    Gary Morgan has a well earned reputation as a Coalition shill and right wing idealogue, and his company in the past was bent on union busting his casual workforce in opposition to almost all other research fieldwork companies who worked well with unions over many years to observe the rights of their casual survey interviewing staff.

    It is no surprise to those of us who know and have dealt over the years with Mr Morgan that his verbose and self important opinion pieces accompanying his published research often bear no discernible relationship to the actual tabular data. In that respect maybe Dennis Shanahan is Gary’s avatar?]

    I remember a lifetime ago (late 1970s) when one of the Morgans was so-called ‘Centre Unity’ faction of ALP. Member of East Melbourne Branch.
    Remember him being a guest speaker at my Branch about ‘polling’ and how it works.

  18. That is not the plural it is the possessive. Did you not notice the apostrophe before the “s”?

  20. Barnaby’s latest rant :

    Mr Albanese has let the debt grow to approximately $150 billion gross without delivery on nation building infrastructure. The inland rail remains only a dream thanks to Mr Albanese.

    The money wasted on school halls could have duplicated the Pacific Highway all the way from Sydney to Brisbane and a large way up the Queensland coast. The ceiling insulation debacle could have built the tunnel through the Toowoomba Range and the money from the $900 cheques could have built a rail line from Mt Isa through to Darwin and probably much of the way to Port Headland.

    Mr Albanese, everywhere you look you see nothing. The infrastructure list shows that he truly is the Minister for Nothingness, playing second fiddle to Prime Minister Gillard of “School Halls” fame.

    Well barnaby with the money john howard and the national party squandered during the last minerals boom, a tripe laned highway could have been built around Australia three times with rail links to every major centre and to the moon and back.

    The only thing all that money would not have been able to do would have been to shut your big (SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management) dumb mouth.

    barnaby if you are part of the coalition brains trust, get comfortable on the back benches for you are there for a long time sunshine.

  22. Dave

    i have been sent a few emails from pals

    the underground is chugging again

    apparently the sad,mad and bad one are doing a media blitz this weekend

    I wonder if we have a poll monday?

  23. Thanks, Gusface @ 71

    I had a jolly good wheaze remembering the good old days when PJK strode the stage of Parliament and served up the Opposition with a series of pithy one liners and caustic jibes – the description of Howard as a ‘dessicated cocoanut’ is a particular favourite, especially as I saw some horrid close ups of JWH on TV last night as he got off the plane from Singapore – Good God, those eybrows! Get the pruning shears!

    I was also very fond of PJK’S portrayal of Dr John Hewson as ‘the feral abacus’ and his use of Proverbs for the memorable ‘Like a dog that returns to its vomit is a fool who repeats his folly’ when Hewson was proposing the GST in 1993.

    They just don’t make ’em like that anymore …

  25. Old Tom @ 117

    That would be Gary’s brother Geoff – the black sheep of the family (don’t know what happened to him but he was a really nice bloke).

  26. TBS
    Albo from a V young age has had a touch of the keatings

    he ,like PJK, has that mongrel in him

    I think he is the best attack dog of the present gov

  28. Albo from a V young age has had a touch of the keatings

    he ,like PJK, has that mongrel in him

    I think he is the best attack dog of the present gov

    I liked the fact that albo did THE walk with rudd along with maxine. What happened happened but I give albo marks for loyalty.

  29. dave

    many many moons ago imet albo in less than harmonious circumstances

    but bygones rae bygones

    he is one of the top performers and closer to the LOTH than many

    🙂

  31. If you are there scorpio, my focus group session at the RSL tonight wasn’t as focussed as I would have liked. I obviously need lessons when you have time. There were a lot of participants seemed to find it more interesting to shout beers and crack a few jokes. I am not averse to that activity myself, so I cracked a few with the best of them, and the rest happened in between. So much more natural; not like those hollow men.

    My target group comprised persons between the ages of 19-96 (I kid you not), about 15 in total. I came proudly away with these key reflections of voter attitudes, by majority in group:

    1. The world has gone crazy. (age group 95-100)
    2. It is regressive that household appliances are so complex these days that we need a technician to come around and fit them at home. (age group 95-100)
    3. It is terrific to see that bastard John Howard getting the arse again. (All groups)
    4. We have to stop those boats. (age groups 45-100)
    5. The rugby league jersey colours are a joke these days compared to the 60s and 70s. (Age groups 45-100)
    5. There should indeed be a tax on mining our resources. (all groups)
    6. Phar Lap was a handsome horse, but when I look at Gillard … (individual in age group 70-75)
    7. Nah, I don’t know anything about that stuff. (age group 18-23 (1))

    So, anyway, now I’m convinced. Focus groups are the way to go for all politicians. Rudd should have come to my club and he would have still been in office.

  32. The Adelaide-Darwin railway might be a white elephant commercially, but it has significant defence value. Even more so since we bought heavy Abraham tanks. Rail lines are more difficult to knock out from the air and quicker to rebuild.

  34. Winston @ 125:

    Yep, Geoff, thats right. Walked with a stick and a limp. Either a stroke or Parkinsons, I think.
    I hope I am wrong about this, but I think he may have passed away.

  35. [Gary Morgan has a well earned reputation as a Coalition shill and right wing idealogue, ]

    You will notice that both BB and Truthy spell “ideology” and “ideologue” as “idealogy” and “idealogue.” I think this is the giveaway. Has anyone ever seen them in the same place at the same time? No.

    [Psephos: Why haven’t you ever stood for parliament?]

    Because when I was the appropriate age I was doing other things.
    http://www.adam-carr.net/vachistory.txt
    Also I’m too lazy and I value my privacy.

  36. You got a feeling that Twiggy is looking like a “jilted lover” by Jules for ignoring him in the nego.

  38. I think that this weekend would be a great time to catch up with family and friends, get away from the big smoke.

    If mum’s in on the joke, she is going to be working hard to contain herself.

  41. Johnny Button,

    [I’d say Brisbane is safe, North Qld will be harder. What do you think scorps?]

    Sorry for the delay,been busy doing something else.

    I really can only speak for a few. The LNP were giving Flynn away two weeks ago, bitching about the distribution putting some rock solid Labor bits in from Capricornia But I thought it was pretty safe anyway.

    Capricornia would need a landslide to the LNP for Labor to lose.

    Dawson I always thought was safe, Brunker is well known, it has a good margin, the LNP candidate looks a dud and the polling backs me up there.

    Hinkler should fall to Labor this time, the LNP margin is very thin.

    I agree with the Green from Cairns that Leichhardt is safe for Labor. I don’t think bringing back a former Member as a candidate will do much for the LNP and there is a big indigenous vote there which will stick with Labor.

    Not game to give an appraisal on any others up this way at present but will try and get some intel on Herbert as I have a number of contacts there.

    Kennedy will stay with Katter, no worries.

  43. Old Tom @ 134

    Yes, I think he had Parkinsons. He didn’t work in the research company (although he may have when he was younger) – had his own business I think. Didn’t really get on with the rest of his family – he was older than Gary. But they were total opposites in both character and politics – think Peter and Tim Costello.

  44. [I hear there’s a big rodent inbound from Singapore]

    Amigo, i’ll be in Singapore in a few weeks. i’ll make sure the rodent dont get on board. 👿

  45. BB,
    I think this summarises your point quite well.

    http://www.pipingshrike.com/2010/06/the-dead-hand-of-the-party-rises.html#more-4749

    “The Gillard ‘challenge’ may have never existed in the electorate nor even in the party room, but it did in the media and the power brokers that clearly fed them over the last few weeks.

    Outside a handful of shoe-ins with little party background, Rudd never built a base in the party and as the party itself has lost much of its base, the combination of power brokers, a viable candidate in an acquiescent Gillard and nerves from a relentless media campaign was able to decisively switch the mood leaving Rudd without even a broker to do the numbers for him.”

    If the media campaign (fed, it seems by the ALP right as much as the Libs) had not so undermined Rudd to begin with, they would never had been able to justify polling whether Gillard was more popular than Rudd or Abbot in the first place. This wasn’t rigging the polls, but posing a question from a biased, or self-interested, viewpoint.

    The subsequent damage to the extremely effective Rudd+Gillard partnership has not just wasted a brilliant and successful PM, but also damaged the credibility and effectiveness of Gillard.

  46. scorps 141

    No need to apologise. You are on the ground up there so I trust your feedback. Thanks for the info.

  47. Finns, just be careful, the rodent you could handle with one fin tied behind your back but don’t mess with his mate! She’s deadly! 😉

  48. Gusface@142

    JV

    ourimbah RSL is not your typical club

    cue banjos

    Never been in it; although I have visited the Tall Timbers pub once or twice, and escaped without the assistance of an ambulance.

    Also can’t play the banjo. But my father can and I look a bit like him. I’ll take him if I ever visit the Ourimbah RSL.

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