Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

  1. [Interesting that the focus has been on the first part of that statement, while the second part has been given little air time. Taken with Gillard’s other comments it seems like Labor strategy is to broaden support in the centre rather than taking a step to the right.]

    bakunin – I’ve been thinking that myself. I think it’s good to get both sides talking. The voices of those in the churches, human rights,etc. are relatively quiet about the Abbott and Morrison policy. Why? Surely they can become a trifle more persuasive and visible.

  2. [I mean the decision she is taking is the ‘politically correct’ one, it’s the one that will help the ALP win Govt.]

    I see 🙂 Well at the end of the day I think the ALP are willing to sacrifice first preferences on the left in order to secure a larger chunk of the rest of the voters. Sad but true. As voters we have the responsibility of deciding which of the two majors is the least bad option. It’s still very clear to me who that is. Some may choose to perpetually lodge protest votes.

  3. TTH must be watching these posts in utter frustration that he can’t join in. Thank goodness you banned him when you did William. Plesae don’t unleash him until election week at the earliest.

  4. [However the majority choose to write and speak a language, is how the language will end up being.]

    Yes, in the long run, if everyone decides that minuscule comes from the same stem as minivan, and spells it accordingly, that will become the standard spelling. But not while I’m around to defend the current spelling.

  5. David Cameron is no Tone though.

    Hear hear!

    The Tories tried that Australian right wing approach in 2005, did not work at all.

    Interestingly, I am not sure if Cameron could win an election in Australia, his wealthy background and his refined elocution would probably be a liability here 😆

  6. “Spectator gets ten points for owning up to elite contempt for the Australian people. ”

    Incorrect I have no contempt whatsoever. I respect their right to have an opinion however I would like to know what facts they are basing their opinion on. On any measure the problem is miniscule so they are clearly responding with their emotions which John Winston Howard introduced with the Tampa and forever stands condemned.

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