Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

  1. I’ve avoided posting on here about immigration, as my party and I do not see eye to eye on this topic. Welcome to Australia where being a dick to the “darkies” is how you win votes.

    Remember the Tampa affair. Remember the outrage the left felt, that they assumed the majority of Australians would share, about being lied to? In the end, the average Australian just shrugged and figured that “if it stops them from coming over” they’re happy for the government to be a little dishonest!

    It’s regrettable that a government needs to take a draconian AS approach to not just win the issue, but to even survive the election. But that’s how it is. To be fair to Australia though, the immigration issue is one that stirs up reactionary sentiment amongst the population in just about every nation, from Africa to Asia to the Americas, even to the most liberal parts of Europe. It’s not really an ethnic bigotry, but rather a human one. People are naturally scared of that which they are not familiar with.

    It just really doesn’t help when the extremist reactionary opposition are dogwhistling and using every despicable tactic – including lying, just to pander to the irrational fears of people. Not to mention the useless media in this country that back them up, echo their message and are sure to remind us of every boat that arrives (extra points if that get footage of it) and infer it’s the failure of government policy that brought them here to “steal our jobs” or “rape our women” or whatever BS talking point going around at the moment.

    Yes, the government could educate the people with empirical evidence suggesting that the amount of refugees on our shore are proportionally less than the rest of the world, or that immigration intake are important to economic survival or indeed that it’s the legally arrive by plane, visa overstayers that are, in fact, draining this economy and, at times, are contributing to the crime rate (drug trade, white slavery etc.) but who is going to listen? I can certainly mention the names of dozens of people who will just close their ears and yell “bullshit!” when somebody has a bias, it’s very hard to convince them that they are wrong. I mean, you know how many people still don’t believe me when I tell them that we did not believe the world was flat in the middle ages?

    So how can this be solved? It can’t in this environment. When you have a major party using this as a wedge issue and telling the people “It’s ok if you irrationally hate things, we do too!” you are never going to get tolerance for immigration. It’s like a parent telling a kid that there are, in fact, monsters under their bed and they’re scared of it too. It is completely irresponsible and keeps the fear alive. Until (if) the Liberal party can have grown ups in it again, instead of these deranged, power hungry nutters, it will always be a hot issue, wherein “the meaner the better” will be the only winning position. Let’s just hope that in the mean time, n bad fate befalls this country, it would be a shame if we need the rest of the world’s help, and they decide we can go f___ ourselves!

  2. Pebbles.
    I am a geat believer in compulsory voting but issues like AS at times make me feel otherwise. The dogwhistling would probably be most heeded by those less likely to turn up to vote in a voluntary scheme.

  3. If you have an ideological prostitute as Pm then no direction is out of bounds so long as it delivers government.

    With JGillard as PM Labor will be chasing the Liberals further to the right year after year. But that is ok because Labor will still be less on the right than the Liberals.

    The more she moves to the right the less extreme does the current extreme right seem, in fact it is partially validated by the movement. The only way to reset the political landscape is to put a stop to this idiocy and stop the Labor party becoming JHoward’s Liberal Party is vote them.

    What on earth is the point of voting for a party wandering to the right on the basis the will always be less on the right than the alternative?

    I am no Labor Party person though I most often vote them. But the genuine committed Labor person around the place will have to ask themselves do they want this perversion or not.

  4. [She has been ‘branded’ by the BER thingy.]

    Yep – especially at the opening I attended. JuliaG was mentioned a lot in glowing terms. What a good branding. 1% of problems in a project as big as the BER says how good she is.

  5. BK 1302

    Although the inverse of that is that if they could whip up hateful fervour among the masses, the reactionaries could have an easier time getting in.

    Honestly, I don’t know if there ever is going to be sanity again on this issue. I really do fear that soon someone is going to propose something truly barbaric and inhuman and everybody is going to cheer it on.

    I often worry that if fascism (true fascism, not just “government not wiping my bottom” confected outrage) were ever to arrive in this country, we’d welcome it with open arms.

  6. [But the genuine committed Labor person around the place will have to ask themselves do they want this perversion or not.]

    TP – I’ve asked myself that question and I put it alongside all the other questions which need to be asked. The answer came out that, for me, it would be far worse to let the Opposition have power at the moment.

    I asked about the Greens too but the answer – not while they have a lot of extreme lefties fighting with the moderate greenies. They also will have no voice in HoR so my questioning led to the same place each time. I’m sticking with what I consider best and that’s the centre – a little to the left a little to the right, but mostly OK.

    You can do the same. It’s a luxury we enjoy in this country and it comes from all those who fought their backsides off to protect this place. The loss of a father in War gets ones priorities into place as well.

  7. [I am no Labor Party person though I most often vote them. But the genuine committed Labor person around the place will have to ask themselves do they want this perversion or not.]
    Yes, if it keeps the disgusting perversion that exists on the other side out of office. Ever heard of the “lesser of two evils” principal?
    I am not opposed to AS and never have been but I recognise I’m in a minority. If Labor comes out with a policy that is less severe than the Libs in anyway, I will be happy. What the Libs have done is obnoxious and they don’t deserve to be rewarded with government IMHO.

  8. [(1) The community has been ‘deeply unsettled’ by the way in which Gillard got the job.]

    This is quite a potent item remembering that Rudd until quite recently had very strong support.

    Imagine how upset people will be when they learn that there was a programmed misinformation and smearing campaign to get them to not like Rudd. So that he could be replaced by his ‘loyal’ deputy.

    Or that issues that apparently cost Rudd support were urged on him by his loyal team. They could then question if Rudd’s team all along were trying to misdirect him into error so they could replace him with a party faction.

    People don’t like disloyalty, especially when it involves harming another for selfish gain.

    And I think this is why the denigration of Rudd since his removal has been intense and viral across the board.

    Gillard must demonise Rudd to the maximum amount possible to make herself look more attractive.

    Will be interesting to see how the Liberals prosecute that.

  9. [The Kibs are advicating that hundreds of Afghans be sent home.

    Gee, I’d hate to be the pilot on that flight, or the captain of that ship.]

    Don’t worry BB – they’ll do what Howard used to do and give them ‘downers’ to keep them quiet.

  10. Gee, if I ever wanted to write a paper about the inner-city elite and its contempt for the Australian people, I know where I’d come to find source material. The vitriol of recent posts could be bottled and used as weedkiller. To sum up recent debate: the Australian people, in particularly those rednecked yahoos the working class, are a lot of stupid, ignorant, conformist, racist xenophobes, who need to be “educated” by the benevolent and enlightened elite so that they express correct thoughts in future. And any political party that dares listen to their views and address their concerns is leading us to fascism. Did I miss anything?

  11. [The community has been ‘deeply unsettled’ by the way in which Gillard got the job]
    Yep, so unsettled the polls and the money on the betting markets say Labor will win the next election. You don’t get more unsettled than that.

  12. ‘ideological prostitute’ is soooo Twentieth Century. It intimates that there is something morally reprehensible about being a sex worker.

    Time to move on guys, so concoct some other pejorative that helps get the sh*t off your livers.

    Or are you intimating that being an ideologue is reprehensible?

  13. [Imagine how upset people will be when they learn that there was a programmed misinformation and smearing campaign to get them to not like Rudd. So that he could be replaced by his ‘loyal’ deputy.

    Or that issues that apparently cost Rudd support were urged on him by his loyal team. They could then question if Rudd’s team all along were trying to misdirect him into error so they could replace him with a party faction.

    People don’t like disloyalty, especially when it involves harming another for selfish gain.]

    TP, You are reading from today’s fish and chip wrapper. It’s happened and it’s now history. This will not be an issue in the campaign. The issue will be the fitness or otherwise of the Liberals to govern.

    [my second preference is pending.]

    Give it to the Libs then you can say you give it a good shot.

  14. ‘ideological prostitute’ is soooo Twentieth Century. It intimates that there is something morally reprehensible about being a sex worker.

    Ideological telemarketer?

  15. BH@1307

    “………………I’m sticking with what I consider best and that’s the centre – a little to the left a little to the right, but mostly OK.”

    We are at one on this. The question of BB and refugees really makes me angry beause Labor can never, never outdo the racist Libs on this one. However, Labor will never to all things to me and I have to accept that.

    And let me be very clear – When all the evidence is placed in front of the Nation I am totally confused as to why anyone should be concerned. Not a single boat person has been responsible for any terrorism – please feel free to correct me. However, wasn’t Osama a friend of USA? and this was right through the front door.

  16. Boerwar – I thought ‘how fantastic’ – 2 cultures uniting and the beneficiaries are their progeny who will get to sample both. Lucky people.

  17. [my second preference is pending.]

    What do you expect TP? For people to beg you to vote Labor? Nobody cares. Wallow in your bitterness.

  18. Having said what I said before, supporting Abbott to punish Labor for not being good enough is just foolish. Do you honestly think booting out a government after just one term for a right wing opposition, led by an ultra-conservative leader, which only got to where it was in the polls by moving further to the right is going to make Labor, in its time in opposition, move to the left? If a party moves too far one way and gets away with it, the centre moves with them!

  19. Has Labor moved to the right? I can’t find that text at the moment, but I recall that Labor’s election platform in 1901, and up to 1914, was:
    * The unity of the British Empire
    * A White Australia
    * Compulsory military service
    * Tariff protection for Australian industry
    * Compulsory arbitration of industrial disputes

  20. Gordon Brown’s biggest mistake was not calling an election as soon as he became PM. British Labour’s biggest mistake was not deposing Brown last year when he was obviously headed for defeat. Australian Labor observed those errors and is not repeating them.

  21. Psephos 1313

    Now where have I heard that kind of namecalling and argumentum ad populum before?

    Truthy, have you hacked Psephos’ account? Maybe Truthy was an alternate ego of Psephos for when he is bored…

  22. Psephos

    the inner-city elite and its contempt for the Australian people,

    I don’t live in the inner city, so I don’t know for whom you label.

    But using Paddy McGuiness’ trivialising labels for those more educated and aware is nothing more than an attempt to support ignorance over insight and moral understanding. Next you’ll be using the term ‘the chattering classes’. Best to stick to the merits of the issue rather than resort to labelling those espousing the opposite view to yourself.

    To say that those who support human rights and compassionate treatment of refugees rather than xenophobic mistreatment of them have ‘contempt for the Australian people’ is outrageous.

    It’s a choice between baseless xenophobic ignorance on one hand or international standards of humanitarianism and basic decency. I have contempt for the concept of discrimination against people.

    in particularly those rednecked yahoos the working class, are a lot of stupid, ignorant, conformist, racist xenophobes, who need to be “educated” by the benevolent and enlightened elite so that they express correct thoughts in future.

    The attempt to apply the term ‘working class’ to xenophobes is highly unfair to thinking workers.

    The elite that should be educating the populace as to the truth about refugees is the government.

    And any political party that dares listen to their views and address their concerns is leading us to fascism.

    I don’t know where that came from. Any political party that panders to the ignorant racist element that was emboldened by John Howard, instead of leading us back to a neutral approach in line with basic human rights, is capitulating to base fears, and risks further emboldening racists and xenophobes.

    So, yes, you missed quite a lot, actually.

  23. Has Labor moved to the right? Who said: “This country shall remain forever the home of the descendants of those people who came here in peace in order to establish in the South Seas an outpost of the British race.”

  24. [“People should feel free to say what they feel and for people to say they’re anxious about border security doesn’t make them intolerant it certainly doesn’t make them a racist it means they’re expressing a genuine view.

    “People who express concern about children being in detention that doesn’t mean they’re soft on border protection it just means they’re expressing a real human concern.”]

    Interesting that the focus has been on the first part of that statement, while the second part has been given little air time. Taken with Gillard’s other comments it seems like Labor strategy is to broaden support in the centre rather than taking a step to the right.

  25. To Speak of Pebbles@1331

    Psephos 1313

    Now where have I heard that kind of namecalling and argumentum ad populum before?

    Truthy, have you hacked Psephos’ account? Maybe Truthy was an alternate ego of Psephos for when he is bored…

    Unfortunately he is correct – The Libs in WA’s most marginal ALP seat Hasluck launched that Boat people trailer last week and that was one of the key issues.

    And Colin Barnett is milking the Leonora Detention Centre woes in his attack on Labor trying to find other solurtions in other towns.

    THAT is the political reality.

  26. Has Labor moved to the right? Who said: “This country shall remain forever the home of the descendants of those people who came here in peace in order to establish in the South Seas an outpost of the British race.”

    John Curtin, well over 60 years ago.

    I don’t buy into the whole “Labor is too far to the right/a clone of the Liberal Party” rhetoric (in fact, I argue against), but juxtaposing quotes from over half a century ago with current party policy is a pretty flawed argument.

  27. [Interesting that the focus has been on the first part of that statement, while the second part has been given little air time. Taken with Gillard’s other comments it seems like Labor strategy is to broaden support in the centre rather than taking a step to the right.]

    Of course it is. It allows left-moaners the chance to whinge and whine some more. Just vote Green and think about your preference allocation. It’s a simple solution.

  28. Frank 1335

    Agreed 100%

    That’s why I am avoiding criticising the Gillard government for whatever they do. I appreciate their hands are tied behind their backs. I wish they wren’t but that’s how it is.

  29. I recall that Labor’s election platform in 1901, and up to 1914, was

    Labor is slightly to the left of the policies of neanderthal man too. That puts things in perspective. 😆

  30. “To sum up recent debate: the Australian people, in particularly those rednecked yahoos the working class, are a lot of stupid, ignorant, conformist, racist xenophobes, who need to be “educated” by the benevolent and enlightened elite so that they express correct thoughts in future.”

    Yes correct except for the comment correct thoughts – I would of said more considered thoughts. For a large body of people to truly think people seeking asylum is such a big issue to the country demonstrates gross ignorance. The numbers are miniscule, represent no threat to the country and can only be explained by one word racism.

  31. Psephos

    What has gone wrong in your mind?
    Quite clearly last night you were incapable of having a rational discusson on this issue, and yet again this morning all you have to offer is vitriol, and bitterness. What on Earth was that garbage about inner city elites? It’s really low-brow and it’s strange that an apparently intelligent person would resort to trivial name-calling here. Especially when the discussion was pretty civil until you showed up with your anger bandwagon.

    You are playing exactly the same game that Howard played.

    I find it amusing that people playing a political game try and pretend that there is some sort of rationale to it all, as if the thought processes are well considered and are a sound basis for Government. It’s just hysterical.

    Oh and I love the irony of Julia Gillard’s statement on ‘not being politically correct’… Quite obviously she is being ‘politically correct’ in taking a hard line…

  32. Also, if I could reiterate a point I made before. Fear of immigration is not just an issue that affects Australia. Just about every country (even the ones whom the left portray as a liberal Utopia have general anti-immigration sentiment) it’s not an Australian bias, it’s a human one.

  33. Spectator gets ten points for owning up to elite contempt for the Australian people. He/she loses half a point for spelling minuscule as miniscule. Everyone does it but it’s still wrong. (Oh! I have contempt for majority spelling!)

  34. [Labor’s election platform in 1901, and up to 1914, was:
    * The unity of the British Empire
    * A White Australia
    * Compulsory military service
    * Tariff protection for Australian industry
    * Compulsory arbitration of industrial disputes]

    What a bunch of RW wangkers!! Lucky for us we have someone who can recall history pretty quickly. Thanks Psephos

  35. [Oh and I love the irony of Julia Gillard’s statement on ‘not being politically correct’… Quite obviously she is being ‘politically correct’ in taking a hard line]

    It mustn’t be that obvious because I have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.

  36. Spectator gets ten points for owning up to elite contempt for the Australian people. He/she loses half a point for spelling minuscule as miniscule. Everyone does it but it’s still wrong. (Oh! I have contempt for majority spelling!)

    Language is but a medium of consensus.

    However the majority choose to write and speak a language, is how the language will end up being.

  37. ltep

    I mean the decision she is taking is the ‘politically correct’ one, it’s the one that will help the ALP win Govt.

  38. [Quite clearly last night you were incapable of having a rational discusson on this issue, and yet again this morning all you have to offer is vitriol, and bitterness.]

    Au contraire, last night I was the only person being rational, pointing out that the 1951 Refugee Convention says what it says and not what various people would like it to say, that the UNHCR doesn’t decide what Australia law means, and other helpful facts. And today I am offering some mild irony and a small labour history lesson. I feel no bitterness or vitriolicness, just the usual mild exasperation.

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