Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

  1. [Yeah the Rudd-Gillard government was incompetant at best

    But it is good to know that Gillard agrees with the truth]
    Your very biased interpretation of the truth, which happens to be nowhere near it. What page of the Lib handbook is that on?

  2. jv@1129
    [That damage Howard did is reprehensible. Losing the Presidency of the ICC, while delicious, is nowhere near enough humiliation for that flea in my opinion. ]

    You got my vote with that one, JV.

  3. The hard nosed political operatives’ mating call.

    The position of the fearful on this is xenophobic, irrational and baseless. It has no merit, but the party stalwarts want to adopt it as their own – to give in to the red-necks; to collapse and capitulate, even though you know they are idiots.

    Who lives in an unreal world? A world in which those saying we should uphold human rights, and the Refugee Convention are fantasists? A world in which giving in to idiots is applauded as good policy? That’s seems are very weird world to me.

  4. Hmm maybe my earlier suspicions will be judged correct in that I suggested history could show Kevin Rudd as the last Labor Prime Minister, followed by a series of ideological prostitutes.

    Next to go is probably CC / GW , lets take some time to build a consensus … lol

  5. Well can’t say that I like the prospect of two Liberal Parties. Maybe the copy should be booted so as to not drag Australia’s centre way to the right.

  6. [A world in which giving in to idiots is applauded as good policy?]

    There’s a difference between good politics and good policy. Unfortunately, most significantly good policy needs to be bipartisan. The only way we can move forward with our treatment of asylum seekers is when we reach a stage where neither of the two old parties attempt to score cheap and easy political points. I really feel as if the Rudd Government attempted to steer us in the right direction but it’s not been going down well with the electorate. Either way, it looks like we’re headed back to the past.

  7. [Well can’t say that I like the prospect of two Liberal Parties. Maybe the copy should be booted so as to not drag Australia’s centre way to the right.]
    This is crap. You keep repeating yourself. Boring.

  8. I know, why don’t we hope PMJG adopts Birnside’s approach and watch Tone end up in The Lodge and then we can complain about Tone bringing in far right wing policies. Yeah, that’s it.

  9. Thomas, you really don’t need anyone’s approval to vote Liberal. If you think that’s the best direction for our future go right ahead.

  10. Looks like it has to be copied & pasted in the address bar to watch it. Sorry, links don’t seem to paste in full if they come off Facebook or other sources.

  11. Given what Rudd and now Gillard have done on the ETS, and what seems Gillard’s new ‘politically incorrect’ approach on refugees, there’s no doubt we are currently watching a further shift to the right in Australian politics.

    As the Labor party shark swims further to the right its little sucker remora fish stay glued to it, sucking like mad:

  12. The last resort of the Labor remora fish – “Yes my host Labor shark is moving to the right and is virtually indistinguishable from the mad Libs, but we are slightly less toxic than the Libs so we should be strongly supported in keeping them out.”

  13. Gee, don’t tell me Labor might be listening to the majority of the people when it comes to AS. Sheesh, what next? Next they’ll be wanting people to vote them in. What type of political party is this this?

  14. [ Dr Henry, facing questions on Monday from the Senate Select Committee on fuel and energy, was asked whether he was disappointed the RSPT had been rejected as government policy.

    “Believe it or not, not really, or at least not much,” Dr Henry replied. “After 25 years of providing difficult and controversial or contentious advice to government, it is almost something of a surprise when something does get up,”]

    [But he would not give an opinion on the MRRT. “You are inviting me to express an opinion on government policy and I prefer not to.”]

  15. [The last resort of the Labor remora fish – “Yes my host Labor shark is moving to the right and is virtually indistinguishable from the mad Libs, but we are slightly less toxic than the Libs so we should be strongly supported in keeping them out.”]

    This is a political reality. At the end of the day you need to cast your preference for 1 of 2 major parties. Centre-right or extreme right.

  16. What type of political party is this this?

    One that has lost the capacity to lead, and is now simply wallowing in the base fears of the ignorant, while making the rest of us wallow with them.

  17. [JGillard solved nothing, in fact she capitulated, in fact she gave away $1.5bn to the mining industry]

    Dr. Henry has just said it is possible that new tax will raise more than originally modelled.

  18. Gusface@1272

    JV
    let it out son
    this weight must really be heavy
    I feel your pain

    Ah, Gusface, do I detect a remnant DNA strand of compassion and empathy? 😆
    Don’t waste it on me – apply it to the refugees. Their need is greater.

  19. [One that has lost the capacity to lead, and is now simply wallowing in the base fears of the ignorant, while making the rest of us wallow with them.]
    Well, you know what to do. Vote for the Libs and teach that Labor scum a lesson. Put Tone in and let him go wild. But don’t come complaining here when he does his thing.

  20. [Hmm maybe my earlier suspicions will be judged correct in that I suggested history could show Kevin Rudd as the last Labor Prime Minister, followed by a series of ideological prostitutes.]

    That is of course exactly what was said about Whitlam, Hawke and (very frequently) Rudd. For anti-Labor leftists, the last Labor PM was always a great radical visionary and the current one is always a right-wing sell-out. I remember very well the fear and loathing on the left when Hawke became leader.

    In fact Rudd was the most right-wing leader Labor has ever had, as people at this very blog were bewailing in 2006. He had almost nothing to do with the labour movement by background or inclination. His contempt for Caucus showed his lack of understanding of the labour movement and how the Labor Party works. Gillard is a much more authentic Labor PM, the first genuine working-class PM since Chifley. And she’s still a card-carrying member of the Socialist Left!

  21. Get real, youse lot.

    If you want a seriously left party, stop whinging about Labor and go the Greens. Most of the homeless ex-coms and footloose socialists migrated there some time ago. They are socially progressive. They are also home to some amenity-type and some sustainability-type environmentalists.

    If you want a right tory party, go to the Libs.
    There is no small ‘l’ liberal party left. The Libs have a few dribs and drabs of small ‘l’s but they don’t count any more. The remaining Wets have been drained dry by the huge blotter of Dries which infest the erstwhile broad church. (If you want a small ‘l’ liberal party, don’t whinge, form one.)
    If you want a far right reactionary party, go to the Nats.
    If you want a centre party with some right but mostly left tendencies, go to the Labs.
    There is no wholly centre left party.(If you want one, don’t whinge, form one.)

    If you expect policy purity and consistency from any of them when they are actually in government, get real. Governments have to balance what they want to do, their resources, vested interests, scattered power centres, and idealogues of all sorts and persuasions. In the process they rarely, if ever, satisfy everyone. There is no one Australia.

    First-past-the-post will always ensure that the juggling between interests and compromises gets done within parties and not between parties (as per the proportionately elected Senate).

  22. [That is of course exactly what was said about Whitlam, Hawke and (very frequently) Rudd. For anti-Labor leftists, the last Labor PM was always a great radical visionary and the current one is always a right-wing sell-out. I remember very well the fear and loathing on the left when Hawke became leader.

    In fact Rudd was the most right-wing leader Labor has ever had, as people at this very blog were bewailing in 2006. He had almost nothing to do with the labour movement by background or inclination. His contempt for Caucus showed his lack of understanding of the labour movement and how the Labor Party works. Gillard is a much more authentic Labor PM, the first genuine working-class PM since Chifley. And she’s still a card-carrying member of the Socialist Left!]
    Spot on. Some have short memories.

  23. In regards to the mining tax and Gillard, is the fact that ads stopped, and we Australians gain $10 Billion, a loss of $1.5B is nothing.

    It’s a compromise, otherwise we may have nothing.

  24. [Enjoy having no values/beliefs other than winning Gary.]
    So, if we copy the Libs we end up with “no values/beliefs other than winning”. Is that what you’re saying Glen?

  25. [Get real, youse lot.

    If you want a seriously left party, stop whinging about Labor and go the Greens.]

    Exactly. I preference Greens first exactly because ideally I’d like my Government to be more to the left of centre than either of the main political parties. This doesn’t mean I can’t understand why the ALP needs to be pragmatic, nor does it mean that I’m going to vote for far right if the centre-left isn’t enough to the left for me.

  26. [watch Tone end up in The Lodge and then we can complain about Tone bringing in far right wing policies. Yeah, that’s it.]

    Gary, Gary, Gary – then we’d have 3 years of TP still complaining. Or would he?

  27. No we have values/beliefs in most Liberal Policies.

    For Labor to copy ours and trash their own values and beliefs in the process then they are essentially saying they have no beliefs except for winning.

    Very low road Gary!

  28. [solved nothing, in fact she capitulated, in fact she gave away $1.5bn to the mining industry]

    L I B ER A L S P I N and dreaming tone says no miner should pay tax

    so then we poor tax payers would pay MORE tax with tone s mob

    and have less super for retirement great liberal policy that one

  29. Glen
    The remora must go where the host fish goes. I guess the water must get uncomfortably cold and dirty sometimes, but still they hang on, loyally sucking.

    Boerwar
    Agree that the Greens being the only party of the left now. I’ve never liked the remnant hard-line SWP element that seems to infect every new party and organisation of the left with a view to total control, and a totally inflexible attitude. But I guess if the party attracts more and more of the softer left, their influence will diminish.

    And if Gillard keeps this up, the softer left will flow back to the Greens again. The question is whether that’s before or after the election. How long does a political honeymoon last among the soft left?

  30. Obviously Labor copied the Libs tax policy, the MRRT. You know, the one the Libs want to get rid of because it is a GBNT? Has Labor adopted the Libs GBNT? I don’t think they have.

  31. the dreamers and the impractical people vote green

    the far right people with extreme views may vote liberal

    the people that want even handed forward government policies with social policy thrown in to the mix
    vote labor

    simple really

  32. Milne has a bootstrapper in today’s OO. Basically, Milne (and presumeably the Libs) think that there are four areas for Abbott to have some hope. Based on Liberal Party focus group results, he reckons the Libs have targeted four weak points:

    (1) The community has been ‘deeply unsettled’ by the way in which Gillard got the job.
    (2) Approval of Gillard is only ‘top of mind’. Ie, the Libs reckon that people don’t really mean it when they say they will vote for Gillard.
    (3) She has been ‘branded’ by the BER thingy.
    (4) Voters have still not made up their minds.

  33. [1) The community has been ‘deeply unsettled’ by the way in which Gillard got the job.
    (2) Approval of Gillard is only ‘top of mind’. Ie, the Libs reckon that people don’t really mean it when they say they will vote for Gillard.
    (3) She has been ‘branded’ by the BER thingy.
    (4) Voters have still not made up their minds.]
    LOL. They hope.

  34. The Kibs are advicating that hundreds of Afghans be sent home.

    Gee, I’d hate to be the pilot on that flight, or the captain of that ship.

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