Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.
| ALP 2PP | |||
| 2007 | POLL | SWING | |
| Macarthur | 50.1 | 38.5 | -11.6 |
| Robertson | 50.1 | 48.5 | -1.6 |
| Eden-Monaro | 52.3 | 59 | 6.7 |
| Macquarie | 50.1 | 60.5 | 10.4 |
| NSW SEATS | 1.0 | ||
| Hasluck | 51 | 50 | -1.0 |
| Brand | 56.1 | 54.5 | -1.6 |
| Perth | 58.1 | 57 | -1.1 |
| Fremantle | 59.15 | 62 | 2.9 |
| WA SEATS | -0.2 | ||
| Flynn | 52.3 | 45 | -7.3 |
| Longman | 51.7 | 43.5 | -8.2 |
| Dawson | 52.4 | 49 | -3.4 |
| Leichhardt | 54.1 | 54 | -0.1 |
| QLD SEATS | -4.8 | ||
| Corangamite (Vic) | 50.85 | 55.5 | 4.7 |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 55.05 | 56.5 | 1.5 |
| Bass (Tas) | 51 | 62.5 | 11.5 |
| ALL SEATS | 0.1 | ||
morewest@132
abrahams were the dessicated coconuts greatest crime against Aus military.
We have no aircraft big enough to air lift them OS, no near neighbours where we could use them, no likely internal territorial use if attacked (too few to mass in more than one place and too far to move from one location to anoither).
BUT, they make Ausi armour able to be ‘integrated’ / ’embedded’ with our Yank allies.
Yep, our armour can become just another statistic as front line fodder alongside the U S of A in a conventional hot war. THAT was J W Howard’s great betrayal of our military. The Aus Regular Army is not, and never will be, sufficiently large to maintain or support a US Style ‘big battalion’ army. (Likewise, we haven’t had a flying RAAF REserve since the last Spitfires in the 1950s.)
Our national interests are much better served by the 3 x Regiment structure, with multiple specialised Task Forces being established when required.
If it ever came to continental combat, lighter armour as support for our relatively mobile forces and specialist units such as SAS, provide a complimentarity that the Abrahams dinosaurs do not.
Howard’s buying in to embedding with the Yanks was a betrayal of our armed forces, of our national interests and defence preparedness and a HUGE waste of money.
[Outside a handful of shoe-ins with little party background]
Firstly it’s “shoo-in”, not “shoe-in.”
Secondly the word you actually wanted was “blow-in.”
Thirdly this thesis is not correct. Labor governments always get a hostile press. The party would have backed Rudd 100% against the press, the miners and everyone else, had he not alienated absolutely everybody by his pathological control-freakery, high-handedness and refusal to listen to anyone, and had he not clearly lost his ability to speak to the electorate in comprehensible English. I know everyone loves to hate “power-brokers” like Arbib, but in fact all they did on this occasion was bring matters to a head so that Caucus could do what it had been itching to do for weeks.
copper my be up, but the Baltic Dry is down another 3%
Old Tom
but realistically arent we just a division of the us 7th fleet
ie one on one we represent about 5% of the US’s pac capacity
we dont share NZ’s splendid isolation?
“I thought Baltic Dry was a brand of gin until I discovered Pollbludger.”
Antony Green points out that Gillard has no overtaken Frank Forde and is now no longer the shortest-serving Australian PM. On 14 July she’ll also overtake Sir Earle Page.
154
Tanks are not a naval weapon.
We are not as isolated as New Zealand but Indonesia aren`t about to invade us either and they would have great difficulty if they tried.
Gusface@150
So the Chittaway for the PB election party night? Do they have security?
Pseph
you realise that the swedes invented Gin dont you?
the poms only claimed it after they learnt to cultivate juniper
Old Tom,
I read that the Abrahams are too big to move by rail and we don’t have the appropriate road transporters for them either.
I think they are just destined to sit in a big shed somewhere and rust.
JV
currently the Rebs
😉
156
Gillard to overtake Christmas Morning Grafton on the day the French celebrate the demolition of a prison.
I thought the Dutch invented gin. I will check.
Twiggy is still on the Front page of Someone’s ABC still whinging – oh and the Boss of Atlas was on Stateline in WA saying he was screwed by the Big Boys who he thought were his friends.
Diddums.
[the French celebrate the demolition of a prison.]
They stormed it, they didn’t demolish it. That was done some time later.
154
would you class aircraft as a naval weapon?
btw the overall command structure for pac comm is the navy
anyhoo as AMOI the abrahams CAN be transported by rail as can many other units and ordinance
Gusface@161
Damn, my mates are in the Bandos. Could be interesting.
Wikipedia says it was the Dutch.
More here. Howard’s white elephants would be a good description.
[THE army’s newest frontline weapon, the Abrams battle tank, arrived in Australia yesterday and immediately encountered problems, with no rail transport available to carry the tank to the Northern Territory.
Its deployment will be further hampered because, at 68 tonnes, the Abrams is too heavy to travel across road bridges in the Northern Territory.
As the first 18 of the tanks were delivered to Port Melbourne, the operators of the Adelaide-to-Darwin railway said they lacked the equipment to carry them. Adelaide-based Freightlink said the tanks were too big.
“Freightlink has participated in a rail study with the implication for new rolling stock to be acquired,” the company said.
It did not say when or if it intended to acquire the required rolling stock and suggested it was waiting for contracts to be signed with the Defence Department before going ahead with the purchase. A total of 59 refurbished tanks were bought from the US for $500 million.
Transporting them north by road is likely to be problematic.
A senior Northern Territory shire engineer said road bridges in the Katherine Shire had a maximum capacity of 50 tonnes, 18 tonnes less than the weight of one Abrams tank. Road trains weighing up to 50 tonnes are able to use the bridges by disconnecting a trailer, he said.
The tanks, described by federal Defence Minister Brendan Nelson as the best in the world, have a fuel economy as low as 200m alitre.
http://www.news.com.au/m-abrams-tanks-in-the-wars/story-e6frfkp9-1111112254964
pseph
youi trust wiki?
I trust the viking over the cowherder anyday
I have never understood what we are supposed to use the Abrams tank for. Are we planning to invade Russia?
[youi trust wiki?]
On matters of fact which are not politically contentious, yes.
JV
aint seen a bandido on the CC for years
mostly rebs and hells and V V’s
From my inbox…….
[Dear briefly,
Today I am proud to tell you that the Gillard Government has reached a break through agreement with the mining industry.
Through this agreement the superannuation saving of 8.4 million working Australians will increase and we can invest $6 billion in additional Regional Infrastructure Funding over the next decade.
We can now help 2.4 million small businesses who will benefit from a $5,000 instant asset write-off. This agreement will also help 770,000 companies who could benefit from a cut in the company tax rate.
I believe these tax reforms offer a better future for Australians and I need your help to spread this news. Please send this email on to your friends and family. If we pull together, we can do great things.
Julia Gillard]
Pseph 163
Same here. I thought the Dutch did as well.
Gusface@173
Only kidding. If I was still riding, which I did for 15 years, I’d be a meek member of the Ulysses mob I reckon. 😆
Anything interesting happen on LL?
[171
Psephos
I have never understood what we are supposed to use the Abrams tank for. Are we planning to invade Russia?]
They may come in handy when WA attempts to secede.
Julia looks very Prime Ministerial – those sharp dark suits are doing it for me! 😉
172
Who invented Gin could be quite contentious.
I guess the next thing for the PM is a statement on asylum seekers/boat people – gradually knocking out all the negatives & limiting Phoney’s capacity to run scare campaigns. 🙂
evan14@179
Less cake make-up than this morning would be a good idea I think. Politicians already wear a mask.
Gusface
The beauty of our navy was our conventional powered hunter-killer submarine fleet – i.e. Oberon class.
The real problem with the new Collins Class is that they have been fitted with a totally unsuited (U.S.) weapons control computer system, designed for nuclear armed and powered subs. Completely different ‘fish’ with a totally different purpose.
These systems just haven’t been able to be successfully modified to do what WE need to do as well as it can be done, and needs to be done. I.e. we have been saddled with second rate equipment, because the Fibs weren’t prepared to go against ‘Gee Dubya’ and his mates in the US arms industry.
Likewise with the new airforce strike fighters. Yanks won’t ‘let’ us have the top level avionics and weapons control systems. After all, we may have fought along side them in every war of the 20th Century – albeit that they barely made it to WW1 – but we are still not genuine ‘good ole’ boys’.
Our best option for defence is a functioning submarine fleet, scalable land forces and fighter aircraft capable of being dispersed to remote locations and maintained with minimal support. For the last, Saab Viggen type aircraft, rotated through small scale facilities based at outback cattle stations and flown off cattle roads.
If the purpose of Defence is ‘defence’ (rather than attack) then such forces would be able to make attack too problematic for any probable aggressor.
(152) Absolutely right on the typo. Would think, though, that those who had power would be the most upset at losing it.
I like how Rudd was the only one who made the wrong political decisions. Seemed to make all the right ones for quite a while.
jv,
As alway,s you critique the person not the policy.
Bitch.
Scorpio @ 160 Correct.
Water tanks in the desert would be more use!
Old Tom
I agree re the A/F
I was merely pointing out that we are inescapably linked to the US command structure
In a way that is both a godsend as and as you pointed out a curse
In any event if Oz was invaded a guerilla army would derail any attempt at occupation
tho the abrams would nice as a bulwark in the top end
😉
I also like the idea of a caucus highly resistant to media campaigns. Hah!
Scorps
the rolling stock is the same as used by the mining Co’s for transhipment of the D series
I would love to know how many times I have seen similar statements as this comment on Tim Dunlop’s piece in The Drum.
They can’t all be wrong, and why is there so many with similar thoughts. There has to be something in it.
[The ABC is *competing* with News Ltd?
Could have fooled me.
It’s hard to tell the difference between the two these days.
ABC news and current affairs is like ‘The Australian’ on the air. Both in the right-wing editorial slant, the stories they decide to cover (and leave out) and with all the News Ltd journalists regularly appearing on the ABC.]
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2941821.htm#comments
Perhaps Kev should serve on the ICC Board instead of Howie – considering he could play the game a lot better than the snubbed one 🙂
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/video//-/watch/20656803
Night all, the Oh wants a belly rub! 😉
TTfab
i have sent an email to the swedish bro
I am intrigued how the cowherders have claimed the firewater of the warrior
I hope to be able to post the appropriate rebuttal as soon as i get a reply
scorps,
News want prestige and have info that no one will pay for.
The ABC want info they refuse to pay for but they think is prestigious.
Gusface,
In (the EXTREMELY unlikely event of) a ‘hot’ war, use the new rail line to move population south and then ‘take out’ the infrastructure at least as far south as Katherine as necessary.
The real problem these days is all the great new roads and bridges, etc put in over the last 30 years for cattle trains and ‘grey nomads’. Our northern deserts are no longer the bastion against a land army they once were.
Greensborough Growler@185
Yes, but I can learn from your own gentle christian new testament restraint as always.
Policy? If only there was a tired old policy on carbon reduction, refugees, education and social equity that didn’t require make-up to look attractive.
There is also all that mining rail infrastructure, etc as well!
(191) Given he probably set up the little media event in Brizzie the other day I would think they would want any post that takes him out of the country!
OT
so true
but say the Enemy swept into the darwin triangle
where and what do they do next?
do they force march on to cath?
do they hold Darwin and resupply
do they set up a perimeter
meanwhile does aus request atacticat nuke strike
do we regroup in alice with guaranteed resupply via Ad
do the enemy have the overwhelmiong force to take out our E seaboard
NB
How long for an ICBM to obliterate the enemy’s capital?
ps a tacticat
is tactical nuke strike based on different categories
1 being a shallow ie 25*50K impact thru to
5 being acarpet of 5-10 nukes coveringa roughly 1000k matrix