Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.
| ALP 2PP | |||
| 2007 | POLL | SWING | |
| Macarthur | 50.1 | 38.5 | -11.6 |
| Robertson | 50.1 | 48.5 | -1.6 |
| Eden-Monaro | 52.3 | 59 | 6.7 |
| Macquarie | 50.1 | 60.5 | 10.4 |
| NSW SEATS | 1.0 | ||
| Hasluck | 51 | 50 | -1.0 |
| Brand | 56.1 | 54.5 | -1.6 |
| Perth | 58.1 | 57 | -1.1 |
| Fremantle | 59.15 | 62 | 2.9 |
| WA SEATS | -0.2 | ||
| Flynn | 52.3 | 45 | -7.3 |
| Longman | 51.7 | 43.5 | -8.2 |
| Dawson | 52.4 | 49 | -3.4 |
| Leichhardt | 54.1 | 54 | -0.1 |
| QLD SEATS | -4.8 | ||
| Corangamite (Vic) | 50.85 | 55.5 | 4.7 |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | 55.05 | 56.5 | 1.5 |
| Bass (Tas) | 51 | 62.5 | 11.5 |
| ALL SEATS | 0.1 | ||
[Mr Albanese has let the debt grow to approximately $150 billion gross without delivery on nation building infrastructure. The inland rail remains only a dream thanks to Mr Albanese.
The money wasted on school halls could have duplicated the Pacific Highway all the way from Sydney to Brisbane and a large way up the Queensland coast. The ceiling insulation debacle could have built the tunnel through the Toowoomba Range and the money from the $900 cheques could have built a rail line from Mt Isa through to Darwin and probably much of the way to Port Headland.
Mr Albanese, everywhere you look you see nothing. The infrastructure list shows that he truly is the Minister for Nothingness, playing second fiddle to Prime Minister Gillard of “School Halls” fame. ]
http://australia.to/2010/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3800:barnaby-joyce-labor-fails-on-infrastructure&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=201
Barnyards latest brainfart
🙁
Gusface@45
It sure is in that instance. Can’t bowl, can’t catch, voted out. Remember Muller? Howard is the new Muller.
Psephos,
[I have never accused Morgan or anyone else of poll fixing.]
Maybe you should change your Gravatar. The “Target” one might be suitable! 😉
I’mk not talking about ALL his polls, just this group of them. They are their own evidence. Even William dissed their validity.
They use a poor sampling technique. Correct? The numbers are too low?
So why does a pollster who should know (and does know) better present them as meaningful?
Let’s take another poor sampling technique: on-line polls. They’re useless as polls but are cited regularly as having import (and are regularly laughed off the stage around here).
So where’s the dividing line between one poor sampling technique and another poor sampling technique? Why is one poor sampling technique plain wrong and the other unimpeachable?
And don’t give me any guff about “reputations”. Morgan made it pretty plain this morning on radio that he is fighting a war to the death.
That this thread exists at all is evidence that he’s had some success in getting people to discuss his polls, poor sampling technique or not.
I repeat, I’m not saying that his mainstream polls are particularly biased one way or the other (if anything they’re towards Labor), but why the sudden publicity for relatively unscientific polls that just happen to push his particular barrow on the RSPT?
JV
LOL
50
The railway to Mount Isa is narrow gauge and the railway to Darwin is standard gauge. If a railway was being built from Darwin to Qld then it would be standard gauge and go all the way to Brisbane.
[You were highly defonmatory of Morgan.]
It’s actually not logically possible to be defamatory (or even defonmatory) of Gary Morgan.
Gillard should command he go back again and again.
There’s nothing like seeing an alleged influential political opponent demonstrating they’re has beens in the modern world.
What in the blazes would they carry on a railway line between Darwin & Brisbane?
It would be an even bigger loss maker than the Alice to Darwin one!
TTfab
Thats why they built the adel darwin link
😉
Winston,
Try him. I’m sure Morgan can show you are wrong.
scorps,
Cane toads.
58
I once saw an item on Landline saying that a Brisbane-Darwin line would have more traffic than than just an Alice Springs-Darwin line and provide the Tennant Creek-Darwin section with much more traffic (I seem to remember the figure 10 times). Tighter restrictions on shipping in the vicinity of the Great Barrier Reef had something to do with this.
GG,
ha ha.
Yes, he has a well-earned reputation for being litigious.
I’ve said I think Morgan is a crackpot, and that I think his crackpottery tends to discredit his polls. I’ve never said he actually rigs or fixes his polls. I also pointed out that he got sacked from The Bulletin after predicting that Beazley would win the 2001 election. You can read all about that here:
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=HRl9GyjSOB8C&pg=PA80&lpg=PA80&dq=Morgan+polls+dropped+The+Bulletin&source=bl&ots=nmnuT4aERZ&sig=QoLfNGMWkaaepY5u5LGrEZowcC0&hl=en&ei=8sotTOnRF9GqcdKwob0D&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&ved=0CCcQ6AEwBjgK#v=onepage&q=Morgan%20polls%20dropped%20The%20Bulletin&f=false
Winston,
Then tell the truth. At least you’ll be protected by your warm virtue as your family pays for your folly.
psphos,
“tends to” are interesting weasel words.
I’d love to see Barnyard get all those highway projects up and running in a year without some serious stuffups 🙂
Copper is up! About time. I think this can be attributed to jubilation in world markets at the prospect of a glorious victory to Labor in the impending election.
[think this can be attributed to jubilation in world markets at the prospect of a glorious victory to Labor in the impending election]
i never ever quite get you lot is that tongue in cheek i get very confused around you lot
just had an email from my cousin in qld who says kev stuffed up etc.
thinks the miners up there very happy and thinks things will now return to normal
and she was a real kevin fan
any other qlds agree with the assessment
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/people/guide-to-being-memorably-rude-hint-keatings-a-master-20100702-zstw.html
[Australian prime minister from 1991 to 1996. The Lizard of Oz, as he became known, pulled no punches, describing his opponents variously as “mangy maggots”, “intellectual rust buckets”, “gutless spivs”, “foul-mouthed grubs” and “painted, perfumed gigolos”. The more colourful his language, the more the Australian voters chuckled – he had put their darkest thoughts into words.
Keating reserved some of his choicest insults for John Howard, then leader of the opposition, whom he dubbed “the little desiccated coconut”. The barb struck home because, as a physical description of Howard, it was impossible to better. To this day, I for one can’t think of a coconut without thinking of John Howard.]
Total distance Brisbane to Darwin, 3,425 klms. If they used 965 Klms of the existing Alice Darwin line and used an upgraded Westlander line to Charlville of 777 klms, they would “only” need to build a missing link of 1,683 klms, to join up.
Sounds like some “BIG” dollars here because much of it would have to be built through the channel country with probably thousands of stream/channel crossings.
Mmmm!
Roy Morgan is in the business of doing polls.
These polls are on dog food, shampoo and everything else.
Producing polls that are newsworthy gets him in the media which presumably increases brand awareness for his “brand”.
Being first to market makes a poll more newsworthy eg if a poll is published on Friday it will get headlines, if it is followed by similar polls from competitors on Saturday and Sunday they will be on page 3.
Poor sampling is something a reputable pollster is unlikely to do as they will do their best to get gender mix, age etc in correct proportions.
Small sampling is something a pollster may do in the rush to be first to press.
I think the small sample means that there is a bigger margin for error but not a conspiracy.
I also think with the news cycle running so fast on Julia at the moment that it very much depends on time of day people were asked.
Small sampling
[Total distance Brisbane to Darwin, 3,425 klms.]
Hmm. A great big new rail link.
can some one please tell me why was tone burning his smugglers
A bridge-builder’s wet dream eh scorp?
my say 70
This may sound profoundly stupid, but I think the election will be decided in QLD. I think QLD will be a mixed bag on election night. It is hard to read things up here. People are annoyed with what happened to Rudd, but at the same time there is a significant amount who really hated him. How that plays out is anyone’s guess. it might be the case that Labor picks up a few in Victoria to offset loses in QLD.
What about NSW anyone?
my say,
Something about toxic odours.
Gus 71
Who could forget ‘all tip and no iceberg’.
my say@70
You have cousins outside Tasmania? How did they do it?
My Say,
[just had an email from my cousin in qld who says kev stuffed up etc.
thinks the miners up there very happy and thinks things will now return to normal
and she was a real kevin fan
any other qlds agree with the assessment]
Queenslanders are very parochial and Kevvie is one of ours, so lots of fans up here.
It would be pretty hard to get a handle on anything much in Qld at the moment. The Unions are waging war against the Bligh Government on all sides and it would seem that Federal and State issues are getting mixed up in the turmoil somewhat.
72
The railway to Charlville is narrow gauge and the line to Darwin is standard gauge. A new line would be needed from Tennant Creek to Brisbane (the northernmost standard gauge in Queensland).
Johnny Button@77
NSW? – 25.5% swing from state Labor in Penrith two weekends ago – one of the cited reasons for Rudd being dumped. The mining issue doesn’t rate.
The short answer for both states is … the next series of polls, especially after the next two weeks when things have settled down.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/red-haired-hawke-julia-gillard-dashes-lnps-queensland-hopes/story-e6frerff-1225887209433
[‘Red-haired Hawke’ Julia Gillard dashes LNP’s Queensland hopes ]
Hmmm
gus,
Rangas are ruthless.
cud chewer,
[A bridge-builder’s wet dream eh scorp?]
I reckon. Have a look on Google Earth and you get a good indication of what they have before them.
I’ve got piles of aerial photos of that part of the country and there are just channels as far as the eye can see in every direction.
During flood times like the recent one, there are sheets of water 30 klms and up to 60 in places for weeks at a time.
They might not have water in them often but they would still have to have bridges & culverts built over them.
That is a great piece about Morgan, Psephos.
I note that the respected English pollster David Butler observed that Morgans poll methodology was less transparent than others – and apparently nothing has changed.
My own recollection is that the relationship between Morgan and the Bulletin was always difficult (mainly because of Morgan’s arrogance – they actually couldn’t stand him) and that the Bulletin may have simply taken advantage of an opportunity to dump him.
Not so different from recent politics.
Tom the first and best,
That’s why I said the Westlander line would have to be rebuilt.
Big bickies there too.
GG
SWMBO is not ruthless
just efficient
🙁
gus,
pussy!
[You have cousins outside Tasmania? How did they do it?]
ist gen first fleet bowen 4
second 12 children
third 14 children
4 12 children then they came to their sences but my grandmother had
120 grandchildren i suppoe that how.
gus 84
Interesting piece. I think it is going to be tight up here. Even though Rudd is QLDer, there has been a lot of bile oozing out of people here for years. Whether Gillard makes enough of a difference is hard to tell. I think jv has a point, we’ll get a clearer picture in a few weeks once things calm down. I’d say Brisbane is safe, North Qld will be harder. What do you think scorps?
I would probably be cheaper to build a new line.
my say
Ah, yes, of course. I forgot. 😆
GG
having borne 3 little gussies who am I am to even question her wisdom
I simply plead that i am of the non ranga class and as such have no sense of greatness
Works everytime
😉
my say 70
[This may sound profoundly stupid, but I think the election will be decided in QLD. I think QLD will be a mixed bag on election night. It is hard to read things up here. ]
thats scary my cousin is a school teacher so she would mix with a lot parents
she seems to think it will be the status quo in a week or so. she thinks the mind thing upset people more than the kevin thing
MINE THING
Telling it like it is – easy.
Figuring out what to feed my cat? Different story.
I think somethings in the water.
I hope to meet you all some day!
JB
the fact that the article was written by atkins was quite surprising and telling
I read it as a declaration of surrender
🙂