The West Australian has published another small-sample Patterson Market Research-Westpoll survey (401 respondents) to follow on the poll of June 12, which had the federal Coalition with a gaping two-party lead in WA of 62-38. The newer poll paints a much rosier picture for Labor, who are up 8 per cent on the primary vote to 36 per cent and have narrowed the two-party deficit to 54.5-45.5. This would mean a 1.2 per cent swing to the Coalition, which would only threaten Labor in Hasluck and leave them well clear in their other three seats. In contrast to every other poll since the leadership change, this one shows Labor’s gains coming at the expense of the Coalition, who are down seven points on the primary vote to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent, but the result in the earlier poll did not square with last week’s Newspoll quarterly geographic breakdown which had it at 16 per cent. The Nielsen survey of late last week included a sub-sample of 100 Western Australian voters, which had the Coalition on 50 per cent, Labor on 42 per cent and the Greens on 5 per cent.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan throws a curve ball: a phone poll of 600 respondents conducted between Friday and Monday which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party, and 45.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent on the primary vote (with the Greens on 9 per cent). It should be stressed that this is a phone poll as distinct from the weekend face-to-face surveys Morgan usually publishes on Fridays, which are the most Labor-leaning in the business. The results of this poll and the one from Friday should thus not be compared, though the Morgan press release does just that. The last Morgan phone poll was conducted May 26-67, and had Labor at 37.5 per cent on primary, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent, with two-party on 50-50. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. For those confused by this apparently aberrant result, Possum offers the clarification that “exogenous shocks have a large random component to the resultant impulse response function”.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard’s atheism having emerged as an issue, I thought I’d crunch some Australian Election Study survey data on church attendance and voting behaviour, as there have been suggestions Labor will suffer the loss of Christian voters attracted by Kevin Rudd. Defining church attenders as those who go at least once a year and everyone else as non-attenders, 2007 was unusual out of elections going back to 1993 for the narrow gap between the Coalition church attender vote and the total Coalition vote – 2.6 per cent, whereas in other years it had ranged from 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. However, the Labor vote was unexceptional: 1.0 per cent lower for church-attenders than the Labor vote overall, in keeping with an overall range from 3.9 per cent lower to 0.3 per cent higher.
I’m thrilled both Truthy and Bob are absent, if only temporarily, from here.
And in the general spirit of goodwill pervading this board tonight……..I must apologise to Glen, who I was very rude to just before the 2007 election.
Glen, you’re still my favourite Liberal voter! 😀
I say this with the upmost respect for PM Gillard and she may give him a portfolio but it is clear from her langauge that she considers Rudd to be weakest.
Therefore just as a Women who rejects a dull guy might make a promise to catch up knowing full well that she wont.
As I say I am not having a crack at Gillard but women have a way for talking to men they consider dull or weak. bascially the best Rudd can do is go to the backbench and focus on retaining his seat and putting his elbow to the wheel within the ALP’s policy making commitees.
[2582
Gusface
Pspeh outlined in kevs case that it was kev himself the problem,In turnbulls case it was more the policy]
I think Turnbull also lacks some basic political attributes – in particular the talent to cultivate his fellow Liberals and the party supporters. He doe not have the patience for it (very few do, let’s face it). He is lots of things – fluent, funny, self-assured, ambitious to name some. But he is not “deeply rooted” in the party. Perhaps, to take the horticultural analogy further, politicians need to be hardy perennials, whereas he is more your showy annual….
[“I would be absolutely delighted for him to serve as a Senior Cabinet Minister … if our team is re-elected”, Ms Gillard said.]
Hmm, I hadn’t seen that. It’s not exactly a promise, but not far off. It won’t be an easy situation to manage.
It will be impossible for Gillard to go back on that statement.
I disagree, Jules as played Rudd and she may well deliver a position but the odds are small.
Yup, the damage done over Batts i think was in no small part because Rudd didnt stand and fight on the issue when he could have.
I remember some of the conversations here about that time and it was raised that they had to be carefull of not appearing callous when those installers got zapped. But, Rudd seems to have gone too far the other way and and over cooked the mea culpa.
Actually, no you didn’t.
You said that all conspiracy theories were bunk, simply because they were conspiracy theories.
You cited a book on the JFK assassination that was supposed to prove the hit was a one-man operation, and thus all conspiracy theories about his death were bunk. Except that the book was written by a con man, a plagiarist, well-known for being a fraud. You never answered that point, either.
Phephos, you just flit from one convenient fiction to another. When you’re exposed as a dill, just as vulnerable to stupidity and cant as anyone, you either attack the one who exposes you, ignore the charge, or change the subject.
On occasions you go the whole hog and demand an apology. Later on you claim you never ask for apologies. When your error is pointed out you go back on the attack.
Yours is the worst kind of sophistry, a sort of nihilistic and completely accidental connection with the truth and logic that causes people to flee the political scene in their millions.
You’re just a smartarse who’s conned a few posters here into thinking you’re a political savant, and a decent chap.
In fact the office of which you were a key member of staff was plotting all along to depose the PM. But of course, you didn’t know a thing: the Sergeant Shultz Defence.
It took you days to get back here and face the music, presumably while you dreamt up some kind of complicated defence of either your ignorance or your treachery.
You’re a very sad excuse for a human being, mate.
[“I would be absolutely delighted for him to serve as a Senior Cabinet Minister’s Gopher … if our team is re-elected”, Ms Gillard said.]
Isn’t this what she really said?
I will not be easy situation to manage all the different personalities on the frontbench, all eager for a higher position, all eager for their pet policies to be endorsed, some eager to be leader, some eager to get in the paper and some eager for a bit of TA and few more perks.
Bet Ellis is rapt to travel the world at taxpayers expense and lobby for the World Cup.
Rudd would be a great Foreign Minister. Easily the best since Gareth Evans. That is his specialty.
[You’re a very sad excuse for a human being, mate.]
And you’re a liar and a fool, so I suppose that makes us even.
Redwombat For I moment I shell make a sexist comment but Women when talking about men should be judged on their actions not their words.
The PM has bascially called Rudd weak and lacking what she consideres leadership skills and she could see him getting beaten up by Tony Abbott therefore she reacted by removing him.
[Glen, you’re still my favourite Liberal voter!]
That is quite a compliment. Though I doubt Frank sees it that way too Evan 😀
Evan14 I’ll bet I was rude to you aswell so I am sorry too.
As long as I get through the 2010 election without speaking in German I’ll be alllllright 😀
I really reckon though we are heading for an early election. Gillard was put in to win one and to go during the honeymoon is the smartest thing to do eh it worked for Bob Hawke.
Then god knows how the Liberals will end up after losing. I most certainly am thinking about no longer being a member. I wish there was an alternative centre-right party to vote for because Tone’s mental health policy aside I’d prolly vote for another party this year.
I’ve never lied, at least here, but being a fool I’ll plead guilty to.
That’s better than being a traitor.
Psephos@2590
But I’ve given you my impeccable credentials before.
You can’t have had the working life I’ve had and not know the inner world of the Party at least as well as the average member. I’m afraid I’m steeped in it – all without ever joining the party. I was an official in a union full of the party’s factions and a delegate to state Labor Council for many years. I have since worked with various unions in another capacity. I have many friends in the party including MPs, ministers and state officials. I know all about it. I’m so steeped in it I’m an honorary Mate.
Plus, there’s the Captains Flat heritage. 😆
So, that’s how I know the real nature of Labor’s internal politics and can therefore see through your glossing to suit the current post-knifing narrative.
I am not going to stoop that low Bushfire Bill no place for it, as i never get into personanel insults, but the person you have attacked does without hestitation so i will say this-
I wonder if David Feeney is eyeing of a cabinet or secretarial post and Rudd was not willing to offer him a sniff. I wonder after the next election that sniff will be honoured? Victorian Prime Minister and Victorian Senator…
You don’t win elections on minor policy adjustments for minority sections of the community. All the talk today about it being a vote changer is just that: talk. A one-day wonder. Somehow I can’t see a schizophrenia-led recovery on the horizon anytime soon.
Sorry Glen, but Tone’s going to have to come up with something more imaginative than looking after bi-polar sufferers, as noble and needed as that may be as a cause.
Hopefully Glen, after the next election the Lib oppo will manage to get some of their deadwood out of safe seats to get set up to put some talent in parliament. I’d say they are looking at limbo for a while longer though.
One can dream imacca but I doubt it.
[Hopefully Glen, after the next election the Lib oppo will manage to get some of their deadwood out of safe seats to get set up to put some talent in parliament. I’d say they are looking at limbo for a while longer though.]
Unfortunately lack of preselection is the only way most of those will leave.
BK also as it the case for major parties those long time MPs virtually hand pick their replacements.
Politics sucks!
For heavens heavens sake. Abbott only came up with his mental health policy because Rudd was criticised for his. Abbott saw an opportunity and went for it.
He couldn’t give a rats about mental health or anything to do with more funding for health.
BB, you just can’t get over the fact that I was right and you were wrong, can you? You put forward, several times and in all seriousness, and with much accompanying rhetoric but no evidence, the proposition that Newspoll is rigged. Every time you put it forward, I said it was nonsense. When last Tuesday’s poll proved that I was right and you were wrong, you went into complete hysterics and you haven’t got over it yet, a week later. It’s all a bit pathetic, really.
“Unfortunately lack of preselection is the only way most of those will leave”
Yup, so surely there are people in the Liberal Party machine who can have a quiet, firm, word?? Would be interesting if the Libs could organise for a swath of members who should be moved on to retire at the same time so there were simultaneous bye elections across the country?
If they were all in safe Lib seats they would win no worries and that would give them a good look to most of the punters not voting that day who wouldnt really have that they were safe seats in their minds at the time.
[For heavens heavens sake. Abbott only came up with his mental health policy because Rudd was criticised for his. Abbott saw an opportunity and went for it. ]
We are still waiting for the sums. What in particular will be the savings nominated to fund the $1.5b program?
You see they need a Mental Health policy for all those public servants they attend to sack and the workers that will be working under workchoices 2.
I think they will need more money though and lots of it.
Not that I mourn for Rudd. My motivation in all politics is to get decent policies in the public interest passed. He was failing in that.
My worry now is that the gravitational pull of centrist politics will make Gillard fail as well. Just as every modern leader in our duopoly is virtually assured of doing.
Doing nothing beats leadership in the risk-averse world of poll-driven politics.
The irony for Rudd that, and one that should haunt him, is that if he had been a natural leader, ignored prissy focus groups (sorry scorpio, I don’t mean yours :lol:) and taken a strong leadership position on the ETS and sold it hard; and done the same on the Henry review, and, yes, even refugees, he would have still been PM with healthy poll numbers.
But he just wasn’t up to it. Learn that lesson Julia.
Glen you could be right about Bruce Billson. Maybe he could be their future. The Liberals have got to get rid of their extreme right wingnuts like Abbott and then develop good economically conservative and good socially progressive policies. I’m sure that’s what Menzies intended with the party.
[I’m afraid I’m steeped in it – all without ever joining the party. ]
So the answer is no. Thanks. Everyone and their auntie is an expert on the internal workings of the Labor Party. I don’t pretend that said inner workings are particularly edifying. They’re not. They’re often quite unpleasant, as is also the case in the Liberal Party. For the record, I’m not actually a member of a faction, and I’d like to see them abolished. But in their crude and messy way, they do a reasonable job of keeping the party facing in the right direction. Last week the faction conveners did an outstanding job of saving the party from disaster.
Psephos and Bushfire Bill: gentlemen, don’t fight, I have ultimate respect for both of you, life is too short to engage in these silly spats. 🙂
Glen: Bruce Billson and Marise Payne are the last hope for your side of politics, if you want to avoid going too far to the loony right under Phoney. 😉
2553 by Psephos,
I have worked out the following about the results of the Ethiopian election from this page:
That would be a good leadership team.
Sad that there is so much rubbish in the Shadow Cabinet who would take those position ahead of them 🙁
I would have a Billson/Payne ticket over Abbott/Bishop anyday!
Psephos@2630
I note that your description of how it works is consistent with mine. And my auntie isn’t an expert, just me.
And I agree it was the faction leaders who were responsible for what happened.
Looks like the Libs should have had 3 Rudd nerdy look alikes in their 2007 advertising instead of those 3 burly unionists.
Will Abbott say anything about a Conservative NZ goverment bringing in an ETS? 😆
[Will Abbott say anything about a Conservative NZ goverment bringing in an ETS?]
Turnbull might lol!
It could be argued that the mining tax devised in the Henry Review was the demise of a Prime Minister. Julia is rightfully softening the tax.
Also, she should move to the right, and show she is tough but still compassionate, on boatpeople. And certainly move to the right on the ETS. Now is not the right time for an ETS given the global economic outlook. She should tell the Greens anything to shut them up and keep them on side. Yeah possibly a carbon tax that should do. 😆
[Last week the faction conveners did an outstanding job of saving the party from disaster.]
I believe this is yet to be established.
[2611
Centre
Rudd would be a great Foreign Minister. Easily the best since Gareth Evans. That is his specialty.]
I cannot see what special talents Rudd would bring to the job, which is essentially to represent the country. Rudd would likely turn it into a vehicle to represent himself.
Evan, the Greens rejected a tougher ETS that Rudd and Turnbull agreed on than the one in NZ. 😆
How about the fact that he put Downer to shame in the same portfolio from opposition, Briefly.
[I believe this is yet to be established.]
That’s true, but I think it’s the general view in the party.
Small World time – Brad Petit from the Greens WA was in the same Primary School Class as West Swan MLA Rita Saffiotti.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=571274487&v=photos#!/photo.php?pid=260806&id=100000298791582
[2640
confessions
Last week the faction conveners did an outstanding job of saving the party from disaster.]
I tend to think that Julia Gillard is the one who has averted disaster. Sure, the factional leaders put their case to her. But if she had no been wiling to act, there was nothing they could realistically have attempted to do. The conveners deserve credit for having the fortitude to put their case and being prepared to back Gillard. But without her resolve, nothing would have been accomplished.
The ICC has asked Australia to bring on the 12th man to replace Howard.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/01/2942641.htm?section=justin
As I have said Gillard may give hom the post for his ability to speak Chinese but then again Gillard will want people around that mnirrow her world view. this excludes Rudd.
mnirrow = mirror
It would seem Julia is about to do what Rudd couldn’t do: fix up the mining tax mess!
After that, I guess asylum seeker policy is the next cab off the ranks, and then Crean does some tweaking with the BER…..and then if the polls are looking good, an election in late August. 😉