Westpoll: 54.5-45.5 to federal Coalition in WA

The West Australian has published another small-sample Patterson Market Research-Westpoll survey (401 respondents) to follow on the poll of June 12, which had the federal Coalition with a gaping two-party lead in WA of 62-38. The newer poll paints a much rosier picture for Labor, who are up 8 per cent on the primary vote to 36 per cent and have narrowed the two-party deficit to 54.5-45.5. This would mean a 1.2 per cent swing to the Coalition, which would only threaten Labor in Hasluck and leave them well clear in their other three seats. In contrast to every other poll since the leadership change, this one shows Labor’s gains coming at the expense of the Coalition, who are down seven points on the primary vote to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent, but the result in the earlier poll did not square with last week’s Newspoll quarterly geographic breakdown which had it at 16 per cent. The Nielsen survey of late last week included a sub-sample of 100 Western Australian voters, which had the Coalition on 50 per cent, Labor on 42 per cent and the Greens on 5 per cent.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan throws a curve ball: a phone poll of 600 respondents conducted between Friday and Monday which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party, and 45.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent on the primary vote (with the Greens on 9 per cent). It should be stressed that this is a phone poll as distinct from the weekend face-to-face surveys Morgan usually publishes on Fridays, which are the most Labor-leaning in the business. The results of this poll and the one from Friday should thus not be compared, though the Morgan press release does just that. The last Morgan phone poll was conducted May 26-67, and had Labor at 37.5 per cent on primary, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent, with two-party on 50-50. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. For those confused by this apparently aberrant result, Possum offers the clarification that “exogenous shocks have a large random component to the resultant impulse response function”.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard’s atheism having emerged as an issue, I thought I’d crunch some Australian Election Study survey data on church attendance and voting behaviour, as there have been suggestions Labor will suffer the loss of Christian voters attracted by Kevin Rudd. Defining church attenders as those who go at least once a year and everyone else as non-attenders, 2007 was unusual out of elections going back to 1993 for the narrow gap between the Coalition church attender vote and the total Coalition vote – 2.6 per cent, whereas in other years it had ranged from 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. However, the Labor vote was unexceptional: 1.0 per cent lower for church-attenders than the Labor vote overall, in keeping with an overall range from 3.9 per cent lower to 0.3 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Westpoll: 54.5-45.5 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. Briefly and Frank: if the move to Gillard has saved the jobs of Gary Gray and maybe even Sharon Jackson in WA, that’s a plus for the ALP. 🙂

  2. jaundiced view,

    One thing I picked up with my little exercise and questioned by Psephos, was how easily it could be to influence outcomes derived from smaller number, participant focus groups thus making any findings to some degree unreliable.

    A convenor could easily skew opinion of participants by tossing leading questions into the mix and subjects feeling they “should” follow the introduced suggested point rather than going against the herd instinct of not wanting to be seen to be following a different line than that which they felt was expected of them.

    Of course highly skilled conveners do get good results in normal focus group sessions, but I was really happy with what I picked up because it was a fairly large group but the survey was done only with small subsections in isolation from other subsections or individuals and with only the briefest of generalisations to kick off discussion.

    Because I acted just as an interested observer without an agenda, discussion flowed quite freely although subjects did feed off others points but only to the extent that it prompted others to put their view on that particular point forward.

    Most people like a “chat” and if they feel that their discussion is not being analysed then they tend to be freer with their opinions. Just my thoughts on it though. If people “know” that they are in a position where their opinion “is” being analysed for a specific reason, then they may not be as open or honest in their opinion as they would be in say a more informal “chat” style as I did.

    As I say, just my thoughts but the formal style might not be as reliable for gauging opinion for political policy stances as the apparatchiks think it is.

  3. [I tend to think that Julia Gillard is the one who has averted disaster. Sure, the factional leaders put their case to her. But if she had no been wiling to act, there was nothing they could realistically have attempted to do. The conveners deserve credit for having the fortitude to put their case and being prepared to back Gillard. But without her resolve, nothing would have been accomplished.]

    It required both ends of the equation.

  4. [Well may we say ‘God Save the Queen’ because nothing will save Sharon Jackson in WA.]

    It’s Sharryn, and I think it’s waaaay too early to say that.

  5. [2643
    Centre

    How about the fact that he put Downer to shame in the same portfolio from opposition, Briefly.]

    He did a good job, dogging Downer day after day on the AWB and scoring well in relation to Iraq. It was the making of Rudd, really. I suppose my reservations about Rudd are that he would use the platform of Foreign Affairs to attract attention to himself and attempt to “lead” the Government in international affairs. I think it is hazardous. I prefer the understated application of Stephen Smith.

  6. Scorps

    i love the informality of the pub as a place to garner gut feeling

    some surprising responses, as you said when people feel there opinion arent being analysed they rae mprs truthful

  7. [2651
    evan14

    Briefly and Frank: if the move to Gillard has saved the jobs of Gary Gray and maybe even Sharon Jackson in WA, that’s a plus for the ALP. :)]

    Absolutely, evan14. The simple fact that Gillard has shown she will listen to parley with the mining industry has earned her plenty of credit here.

  8. Briefly, I don’t think he would try to attract attention to himself or attempt to lead the government in foreign affairs. Rudd is experienced, talented and perfectly suited in that portfolio.

    It’s like the canetoads playing Cameron Smith at hooker.

  9. [I tend to think that Julia Gillard is the one who has averted disaster.]

    Again, I think it’s too soon to be asserting this.

    The issues which caused a flight in voters from Labor to the Greens are still in play, notably the CPRS delay/deferrment, and asylum seekers. I’ve left out the RSPT, because according to Poss, public polling shows Labor’s vote strengthening since the RSPT announcement.

    Despite the Gillard ascension, climate change and asylum seekers are still unresolved. Indeed, if we are to believe the press, Gillard has signalled a shift to the Right on AS, and as we discussed here, has chosen to delay action on climate change. While initially approving of Gillard according to recent polling, those voters who shifted to the Greens from Labor under Rudd are unlikely to stay with Labor under Gillard if these issues are left unresolved. If Labor try to play in the Liberal pen on AS, then this will push more progressive voters to the Greens. Likewise delay on climate change.

    It is wrong to assert that Gillard has averted disaster, because as yet, we have no evidence for this. Only further polling will tell us whether those voters who shifted to the Greens are prepared to return to the Labor fold under Gillard.

  10. RE: comments by Glen, Psephos, Centre, et al concerning party structures and preselection, etc.

    I’m a long term ALP member and active union delegate. The main problem with all parties in my view is that Australians largely lost interest in belonging to organisations / generally participating in cultural life, at about the same time that TV was introduced. Membership of parties plummeted at about that time.

    If parties had increased membership then their parliamentary members would be more likely to treat the membership as being representative of the population. Also, pre-selection would be harder to ‘rort’.
    One of the advantages for Labor is that union affiliation generates the necessary minimal ‘critical mass’ of interested members.

    By contrast, the fibs are generally a ‘contest’ between a handful of local Chamber of Commerce types and the ‘fur stole brigade’ on one side and nasty ‘land rights for gay whales’ badge-wearing loony right university thugs (I remember Rabbot and Cossie back in the day LOL) on the other.

    This formula is more or less guaranteed to result in the Fibs selecting totally irrelevant candidates in the type of swinging seats that they need to win. The first thing they need to do is to at least insist on stamping out the busing in of uni students, by introducing an electoral residency requirement. (And this is the party that brought in regulations to close the voters rolls on the day the writs are issued, claiming that there is a need for the AEO to be able to check new enrolments to stop rorting. Evidence of judging the voters by their own internal party integrity levels.)

    Wonder how long it will be until the Fibs wake up to this problem?

  11. lol centre. I’d like to think you’re right. On the other hand, Stephen has been very good. Maybe Rudd could be given Defense. That makes a lot of sense to me.

  12. Yes the Green vote may remain strong but with Gillard being to the left of Abbott and standing up to Abbott rather than being wimpy infront of Abbott, the PM will potentially poll a higher amount of preferences from the Greens and she gives the small L Liberals in Mebourne and Melbourne Ports something to like.

  13. evan14,

    [Psephos and Bushfire Bill: gentlemen, don’t fight, I have ultimate respect for both of you, life is too short to engage in these silly spats. 🙂 ]

    Right on Evan. Please gentlemen, how about putting both your prides back in the box, offer a mea culpa (you can’t be both right and wrong at the same time) and lets get on with the task at hand.

    Not too many have a bigger pride than I, and if I can do it, I am sure you both can also.

    We all may be just screen names with a silly Gravatar, but that is not how the majority of relate to each other. We do relate to each other as real live people which may be silly and may not but that’s the way it is.

  14. [It is wrong to assert that Gillard has averted disaster, because as yet, we have no evidence for this. Only further polling will tell us whether those voters who shifted to the Greens are prepared to return to the Labor fold under Gillard.]

    You are of course quite right, confessions. We have to see what happens in coming weeks to know.

  15. Scorpio
    Do you have any view on Denis Cryle’s work on the Murdoch Press and in particular his book on the Australian. Is it worth reading?

  16. Confessions @ 2664, guess what? The Greens are loopy, but they are not even that loopy to give their preferences to Tony Abbott. 😉

  17. [how about putting both your prides back in the box, offer a mea culpa (you can’t be both right and wrong at the same time) and lets get on with the task at hand.]

    To paraphrase Gough Whitlam, talking about John Gorton, if BB agrees to stop telling lies about me, I’ll agree to stop telling the truth about him. But seriously folks… I’m happy to let the matter drop, since everyone knows I’m right and he’s wrong anyway. I won’t make any further comments about it.

  18. [I cannot see what special talents Rudd would bring to the job, which is essentially to represent the country. Rudd would likely turn it into a vehicle to represent himself.]

    We don’t really know this. From what has transpired so far, there is no indication that Rudd has any agenda other than what he committed to in his speech after getting rolled.

    There are of course people who will feel some level of guilt, resentment and other emotions which could affect working in a co-operative and collaborative way with Rudd as would Rudd have himself.

    Notwithstanding that, I personally believe that Rudd is more than capable of rising to the occasion and the others including Julia should be too.

    Nothing I have seen in Rudd over many years leads me to think of him as a wrecker and destabliser of an institution that he clearly thinks highly of.

    His talents and presence both in the Government and especially in this campaign should be encouraged and not wasted.

    I think the post-mortem of his political corpse and the reasoning for and method of his demise have been given more than enough gravitas on PB now. Time to move on to more important subjects like how to get Abbott back in his box.

  19. Just FYI, at about lunchtime in London trading RIO is flat on the day and BHP is down about a percent.

    Wouldn’t it be funny if the RSPT didn’t actually have any impact on their stock prices 😀

  20. [It would seem Julia is about to do what Rudd couldn’t do: fix up the mining tax mess!]

    I think “wasn’t given the time to do” is more accurate than ‘couldn’t’.

  21. [Hmm, I hadn’t seen that. It’s not exactly a promise, but not far off. It won’t be an easy situation to manage]

    hmm i dont think its a worry, woman have great intuition and she will know what
    suits him best, and where he can have a lot input without a lot inderpendance may be in the case of war or something thing troop matters but i think foreign affairs and whom am i to know not being an expert, but while it just is diplomatic matters i think foreign affairs would be great for Kevin, he can speak many languages and he just has that pleasant way about him in public, i think the Chinese and all nation respect him

    do not see any worries at all and i do not think he is the sort of person to want to go back to being pm well not for a long time.

    Not like turn bull who set up a web site so you could criticize the liberal party, did any of you visit that i did and read so many people even labor people giving him the idea that he should start his own party.
    Look at the difference kev goes out to meet his constituents and tunbulls goes home to sit and may be mope.

    no i think he is way to smart and full of ideas to have him as a back bencher i think thats a bit of an insult actually

  22. [Ms Gillard’s office says she will hold a press conference at 8:30am Friday where it is expected details of the deal will be revealed.]

    From the ABC 30 minutes ago.

  23. what do you all think abbotts reaction will be what will he say.

    mmm he may even read he to get your thoughts ???
    he doesnt have alot to work with now does he?

  24. my say

    [ without a lot inderpendance may be

    that should read with a lot of inderpendance]

    don’t you just hate it when your correction ends up with the very mistake you are trying to correct? 😉

    It happens to me too.

  25. [Notwithstanding that, I personally believe that Rudd is more than capable of rising to the occasion and the others including Julia should be too.

    Nothing I have seen in Rudd over many years leads me to think of him as a wrecker and destabliser of an institution that he clearly thinks highly of.

    His talents and presence both in the Government and especially in this campaign should be encouraged and not wasted.]

    here here

  26. [2686 Tom Hawki]

    o gosh did i o well you know what i mean I hope

    thats the trouble i come in here to turn off the computer and end up saying somethng

  27. johncanb,

    [Scorpio
    Do you have any view on Denis Cryle’s work on the Murdoch Press and in particular his book on the Australian. Is it worth reading?]

    No I haven’t John. One thing I have got from following the well read and informed commenters here on PB, is a long list of books that I will try and get hold of to read. I love to learn from those who are far better read than I.

  28. [Scorpio, I replied to your 2669 in a very conciliatory spirit, but William has put my comment in moderation, for reasons known only to him.]

    i told you Bilbo has taken Rupe’s ten pieces of gold.

  29. Psephos,

    [Scorpio, I replied to your 2669 in a very conciliatory spirit, but William has put my comment in moderation, for reasons known only to him. ]

    One thing I will say about you Adam. You sure are full of surprised. Well done.I hope. 😉

  30. briefly@2666

    Maybe Rudd could be given Defense. That makes a lot of sense to me.

    Depends on whether he’s learned anything from recent events. If he tries micro managing Defence and browbeating it into submission he’d be in for a very unhappy experience. Beasley had the knack, perhaps because he was genuinely interested, did his homework, and listened to the blokes (and now girls) at the coalface and not just the department, but few of his successors have done well.

  31. [organisations / generally participating in cultural life, at about the same time that TV was introduced. Membership of parties plummeted at about that time.]

    my goodness you have hit the nail on the head, e.g we have a fun run here
    quite large 1000 competitors we had a big committee years ago now its 5

    Mums and dad would coach hockey athletics etc now it the same old people doing everything.

    Even down to school tuck shops where you now have to employ some one.
    Even rotary advertise these days. People either are very tired stressed or work to hard or cannot be bothered but as my oh says well someone has to do it.

    and i sometimes say now but why you

  32. [The copper price is still falling….sigh!]

    and of course the Baltic Dry Index is also still falling…more than 2% today….

  33. [his homework, and listened to the blokes (and now girls) at the coalface and not just the department, but few of his successors have done well.]

    thats why i think foreign affairs after all thas his training really diplomatic service and it makes sence as he can speak quite a few languages not just asian ones.

    and let him do the global warming thing i really think people praised what he did when he was there i think the ets thing is really what up set him he seemed to be worn out after that,

  34. [2694
    morewest

    If he tried micro managing Defence and browbeating it into submission he’d be in for a very unhappy experience. Beasley had the knack, perhaps because he was genuinely interested, did his homework, and listened to the blokes (and now girls) at the coalface and not just the department, but few of his successors have done well.]

    But the details are endless…..it would keep him eternally engrossed

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