Westpoll: 54.5-45.5 to federal Coalition in WA

The West Australian has published another small-sample Patterson Market Research-Westpoll survey (401 respondents) to follow on the poll of June 12, which had the federal Coalition with a gaping two-party lead in WA of 62-38. The newer poll paints a much rosier picture for Labor, who are up 8 per cent on the primary vote to 36 per cent and have narrowed the two-party deficit to 54.5-45.5. This would mean a 1.2 per cent swing to the Coalition, which would only threaten Labor in Hasluck and leave them well clear in their other three seats. In contrast to every other poll since the leadership change, this one shows Labor’s gains coming at the expense of the Coalition, who are down seven points on the primary vote to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent, but the result in the earlier poll did not square with last week’s Newspoll quarterly geographic breakdown which had it at 16 per cent. The Nielsen survey of late last week included a sub-sample of 100 Western Australian voters, which had the Coalition on 50 per cent, Labor on 42 per cent and the Greens on 5 per cent.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan throws a curve ball: a phone poll of 600 respondents conducted between Friday and Monday which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party, and 45.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent on the primary vote (with the Greens on 9 per cent). It should be stressed that this is a phone poll as distinct from the weekend face-to-face surveys Morgan usually publishes on Fridays, which are the most Labor-leaning in the business. The results of this poll and the one from Friday should thus not be compared, though the Morgan press release does just that. The last Morgan phone poll was conducted May 26-67, and had Labor at 37.5 per cent on primary, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent, with two-party on 50-50. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. For those confused by this apparently aberrant result, Possum offers the clarification that “exogenous shocks have a large random component to the resultant impulse response function”.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard’s atheism having emerged as an issue, I thought I’d crunch some Australian Election Study survey data on church attendance and voting behaviour, as there have been suggestions Labor will suffer the loss of Christian voters attracted by Kevin Rudd. Defining church attenders as those who go at least once a year and everyone else as non-attenders, 2007 was unusual out of elections going back to 1993 for the narrow gap between the Coalition church attender vote and the total Coalition vote – 2.6 per cent, whereas in other years it had ranged from 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. However, the Labor vote was unexceptional: 1.0 per cent lower for church-attenders than the Labor vote overall, in keeping with an overall range from 3.9 per cent lower to 0.3 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Westpoll: 54.5-45.5 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. [“Surprises.” Faulty keyboard ]

    now you know a workman should never blame his tools

    and thats my excuse also or where you meaning me. wish i had some of those smiley face thingos

    come on tell me what is abbott going to say about the mining tax

    funny really did he really think they would hold off negotiating just so he would have a cause, he doesn’t understand business if thats what he thought

  2. [Time to move on to more important subjects like how to get Abbott back in his box.]

    Maybe it should have been “get on your bike buster”.

    What did people think Abbott was trying to achieve with that ridiculous “burning” of the budgie smugglers stunt?

    I’m at a total loss. The man’s a total nutter!

  3. [If, by ignoring Abbott’s past record, they can fool Dio into swallowing this swill then he is home and hosed.]

    A couple of professors of psychiatry, Mendoza and McGorry (who is also Australian of the Year) seem to have been fooled as well. I think we might actually be right, as opposed to people who know nothing about mental health.

  4. But the details are endless…..it would keep him eternally engrossed

    And probably lead him to make a complete balls up of it. There was another guy who fancied himself as a military genius. He could endlessly recite statistics and facts on ever aspect of his country’s military. Baffled and browbeat the top brass with it all. It ended badly. He should have stuck to paperhanging.

  6. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sachs167/English

    This is worth reading……

    [The Unaccountable G-8
    Jeffrey D. Sachs
    2010-06-30

    NEW YORK – In hosting the 2010 G-8 summit of major economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called for an “accountability summit,” to hold the G-8 responsible for the promises that it made over the years. So let’s make our own account of how the G-8 did. The answer, alas, is a failing grade. The G-8 this year illustrates the difference between photo-ops and serious global governance.

    Of all of the G-8’s promises over the years, the most important was made to the world’s poorest people at the 2005 G-8 Gleneagles Summit in Scotland. The G-8 promised that, by this year, it would increase annual development assistance to the world’s poor by $50 billion relative to 2004. Half of the increase, or $25 billion per year, would go to Africa.

    The G-8 fell far short of this goal, especially with respect to Africa…..]

  8. [A couple of professors of psychiatry, Mendoza and McGorry (who is also Australian of the Year) seem to have been fooled as well.]

    Not necessarily. They’re just using the announcement by Abbott to lobby the Government for better action. Very sensible.

  9. Itep you just cannot stomach saying Tone has a good policy. I know it is hard to say god knows it was for me. But it’s a good one and you cant deny it.

  10. Diogenes

    One thing out of the Abbott announcement on mental health I predict is that the area will get a lot more promised to it by Gillard/Roxon before the election than originally proposed by the Rudd reform. It won’t be 1.5b, but it won’t all come from elsewhere in the health portfolio either. That would be why the experts are happy with Abbott’s announcement – they know it has to be matched – a win to them.

  12. Any extra money for mental health is good. I don’t believe they money would ever see the light of day though, apart from to be regifted at a future election.

  13. Finns

    I’m having a great time. The weather is very warm here and it gets dark at 10pm so you can see plenty in a day.

    Stonehenge in a couple of days and the sign is ready to go! 👿

    ltep

    True.

    To all

    I’ve only been skimming comments. Why is everyone saying will Gillard go to the polls early in August? Has she said something or is there some tactical reason? I would have though she needed a bit longer to get the public used to her.

  14. It’s the oldest trick in the lobbying book. You only really care about what the Government proposes because they can implement policy. So you use any idea floated by their opponents to force the hand of the Government via public opinion.

    For instance, the Greens apparent support of Abbott’s PPL scheme was really only a way to push for the Government to ‘improve’ their proposed scheme.

  15. Interesting how the Private School Sector is playing off the NSW vs Federal Govt re Funding – in particular at this School:

    STATE BUDGET
    Last Tuesday, State Treasurer Eric Roozendaal, handed down the 2010 State Budget and without commenting on the big ticket items, the one pleasing aspect for the private education sector was the additional $16.6m for our sector.
    A pittance – undoubtedly, but at least it does demonstrate a positive direction on the part of the NSW government (No! I am not engaging in electioneering!).
    Contrast the murky waters at the Federal level where the government established the “Review of Funding for
    Schooling” back in April which will look at current funding arrangements for all schools, government and non-government and will make recommendations regarding future funding arrangements.

    As expected, the Association of Independent Schools (AIS), of which NEGS is a member, is vigorously involved in lobbying all sectors of the education industry seeking clarification of the government’s intention.

    To appraise you of the AIS position I have included below part of their memorandum to Principals, dated 9 June 2010.

    “The Australian Government has advised that it does not intend to comment on possible future funding arrangements, beyond the current funding period (which concludes at the end of 2012), prior to the Review’s conclusion. The Government, therefore, is intending to go to the next election without a clear policy or position on future funding arrangements for non-government schools. This is, in our view, an unacceptable position as it means that parents/members of school communities will be forced to make voting decisions without critical information about future
    funding intentions of the Government, potentially with signi cant consequences for independent schools. This uncertainty covers recurrent (annual per capita) funding as well as funding for capital and targeted programs. For example, the Government has not allowed any forward funding commitments for capital projects to be made by
    Block Grant Authorities beyond 2012, which seriously impacts on future planning by schools. In an environment of continuing enrolment growth across the independent sector this is a serious matter.

    The AIS Board recently established an Independent Schools Funding Review Committee to consider the sectors’ position on future funding in the context of the Review, and to assist the AIS to develop a communication strategy to help independent schools ensure that parents are informed of the key issues around funding. The Committee met for the first time in late April to discuss possible communication strategies and is scheduled to meet via teleconference later in June to further consider these strategies in the context of the upcoming election.

    Key Funding Issues for Independent Schools

    There are a number of key issues or principles that are critical and should form the basis of the sector’s position.

    These include:

    • No school should lose a dollar of funding in real terms
    • Funding must be indexed to keep pace with real increases in the costs of
    schooling
    • There must be security and stability of funding through a four year funding cycle
    • A direct funding relationship between independent schools and the Federal
    Government must be maintained
    • There must be a guaranteed base level of funding for all students, supplemented by
    additional funding based on need, including all students with a disability, special
    needs or of Indigenous background
    • Targeted and capital program funding should be continued under the existing
    arrangements.”

    I encourage you to become proactive in this debate expressing your concerns in the appropriate forums regarding the lack of clarity for the future funding of NEGS.
    IAN DOWNS – PRINCIPAL]

    http://www.negs.nsw.edu.au/pdfs/NEGSNews%2016June.pdf

  16. [Why is everyone saying will Gillard go to the polls early in August? Has she said something or is there some tactical reason? I would have though she needed a bit longer to get the public used to her.]

    It’s just a guess. Most people suggest she wants to go before the Victorian state election and before the football finals. I suppose it’ll depend entirely on what their internal polling shows over the next week or so.

    If she waits too long it could turn into a Gordon Brown-esque missed opportunity.

  19. Any extra money for mental health is good. I don’t believe they money would ever see the light of day though, apart from to be regifted at a future election.

    Yes. The small amount of money that people like McGorry, Mendoza and David Crosbie are asking for would go so far and do so much good. Abbott has been smart on highlighting this, but it will never see the light of day. All Gillard and Roxon have to do is highlight the years in which Abbott was health minister and did fark all. Roxon has been equally smart in saying that to pay for it, Abbott will strip an equal amount from things like after-hours GP clinics and e-health. Anyone with either a mental illness or a chronic illness needs both.

    Still, mental health and aged care are problems. Not that the Libs have any idea of how to solve either.

  20. I didn’t like Rudd – not at all – and I suppose I should prefer Julia Gillard since she’s not a bible thumper and a sad socially retarded android and all of that … but there is just something about what was done to Rudd that I can’t get over.

    People say it was because of Rudd’s attitude and the way he treated colleagues, but the thing is everyone knew who and what Kevin Rudd was when they voted him in as leader in 2006. The general public and the labor rusted-ons here on Poll Bludger were the only ones who didn’t know or acknowledge the truth about him. Everyone in Canberra did. I remember a particularly good Alan Ramsey piece in the SMH on the subject.

    And now in 2010 the caucus/factional bosses vote him out as PM for being exactly what they’d always known he was, the difference being now he’d done the job of getting back into government for them, so was now disposable.

    Sure, Labor was having a rough patch in the polling (like every government does at times), but the idea that Rudd was going to lose in an election against Abbott is ridiculous. The greens were never going to get the 15 and 16% they were polling – those votes were always going to go back to Labor once the election was called, and the coalition’s primary vote was never at sufficient levels for them to be a serious chance of dislodging an incumbent government. Tony Abbott was never and is never going to be Prime Minister of Australia.

    The whole thing stinks to high heaven, especially the way the Labor types have now turned on Rudd and are trying to rewrite history about just what his Prime Ministership was all about. It’s very ugly.

  21. It’s the oldest trick in the lobbying book. You only really care about what the Government proposes because they can implement policy. So you use any idea floated by their opponents to force the hand of the Government via public opinion.

    For instance, the Greens apparent support of Abbott’s PPL scheme was really only a way to push for the Government to ‘improve’ their proposed scheme.

    The mental health and aged care industries are doing this big time. Keep an eye on what the aged care sector is saying, particularly in WA. Today there was a press release from ACSWA “supporting the WA govt on rejecting COAG because is did nothing for aged care”, despite the fact that the COAG talks were about acute and primary care, not aged care. Apparently WA is a special case and far more important than the rest of the country.

    When are you people going to secede?

  22. [The whole thing stinks to high heaven, especially the way the Labor types have now turned on Rudd and are trying to rewrite history about just what his Prime Ministership was all about.]

    I haven’t turned on him. I never liked him to start with. Now he’s gone I’ll have even less hesitation to preference Labor. Couldn’t care less how he was deposed; I’m just glad to not have to be annoyed by him every time he appears on the news.

  23. I can’t believe all Howard’s moaning and groaning and whining. He should be heavily fined and suspended for dissent – even if he was given out by the 3rd umpire before actually getting to the wicket.

  24. Glen,

    [Itep you just cannot stomach saying Tone has a good policy. I know it is hard to say god knows it was for me. But it’s a good one and you cant deny it. ]

    The first thing I thought when it first hit the media cycle was that Tone has anticipated that Labor has been keeping a comprehensive Mental Health policy in the locker ready for release as soon as the election is announced.

    As such he has jumped in to gasump it while he has the chance, knowing that it would get good press straight after the resignation and criticism of the Government by Professor Mendoza!

    It was smart politics but could lose much of its impact when Labor releases theirs and puts the blowtorch to Abbott’s costings.

    I think that the Libs are going to be in one hell of a tangle come election time when their stupid “no debt, slash all Labor’s socially beneficial programs” strategy gets the blowtorch applied.

    The people of this country want good social policies and a fair distribution of the nation’s wealth.

    Not be forced to sit back and watch a handful of Scrooge Mc Ducks rolling around in a money bin full of money that is not going to be used for useful social purposes!

  25. Those votes were always going to go back to Labor once the election was called, and the coalition’s primary vote was never at sufficient levels for them to be a serious chance of dislodging an incumbent government.

    Perhaps in latte sipping electorates like mine, but in marginal electorates there may have been a difference. Why risk it?

    /Glad to see the back of Rudd
    //Voted for him and appreciate his work in 2007, but never liked the waffler
    ///Go Jules!

  26. Publius Clodius,

    Agree 100% with your summation but unfortunately that page of history has now been turned and we are into a new chapter now.

    It sure is interesting watching it play out in real time though, especially the tangle the media seem to be in at present not knowing how to portray it.

    There’s a desperate search for new memes! 😉

  27. It sure is interesting watching it play out in real time though, especially the tangle the media seem to be in at present not knowing how to portray it.

    Don’t worry, Scorpio. Rupert is due to call us all tomorrow and tell us what to say.

  29. Publius Clodius@2720

    It is very ugly – I’m in NSW and can see the alien tentacles of our very own right-wing monster reaching out to burrow deep into their new Canberra hosts, along with similar inter-planetary invaders breeding in Victoria and SA. First hollow carcass to be consumed from within, Kevin Rudd. Now the horrible writhing mass may live within Gillard.

    In the movies about parasitic aliens in host humans, you can usually tell from subtle changes in the eyes – we’d better watch Julia’s for the signs.

  30. marktwain,

    My opinion of the media is unfortunately shared by an extremely large segment of the population.

    If the media proprietors and their employees refuse to take note of that then they deserve to go the way of the dinosaurs as they will.

  34. jaundiced view @ 2729

    [It is very ugly – I’m in NSW and can see the alien tentacles of our very own right-wing monster reaching out to burrow deep into their new Canberra hosts]

    When Pigstrotter loses his job as Director-General of Education, will they give him second place on the Senate ticket, or will Julia make him Governor of the Reserve Bank?

  35. My opinion of the media is unfortunately shared by an extremely large segment of the population.

    Oh, absolutely Scorpio. But don’t you know that Rupert has planned it this way? He’s farking with your mind, as we speak!

  36. When Pigstrotter loses his job as Director-General of Education, will they give him second place on the Senate ticket, or will Julia make him Governor of the Reserve Bank?

    He won’t need a job – he’s Tanya Plibersek’s partner. She’s due shortly. He can happily settle in as a house-husband, just like Kev, Latham and Iemma. Who said Labor wasn’t good to women?

  38. [If she waits too long it could turn into a Gordon Brown-esque missed opportunity]

    Or even a Rudd -esque missed opportunity. There’s no doubt in my mind that if he had taken Abbott to a double dissolution early this year he would still be Prime Minister.

  40. [Advertiser poll has Labor 56-44 ahead in Hindmarsh]

    They’re proud as punch to have one of their own recognised for something other than multiple homicide.

  41. The country would like an election: have its say on things…….to either ratify the act of the Labor caucus or reject it. Gillard has told the country that we will have our chance. So it won’t be long. There have been very few August elections, but it makes no real sense to wait……not long now.

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