The West Australian has published another small-sample Patterson Market Research-Westpoll survey (401 respondents) to follow on the poll of June 12, which had the federal Coalition with a gaping two-party lead in WA of 62-38. The newer poll paints a much rosier picture for Labor, who are up 8 per cent on the primary vote to 36 per cent and have narrowed the two-party deficit to 54.5-45.5. This would mean a 1.2 per cent swing to the Coalition, which would only threaten Labor in Hasluck and leave them well clear in their other three seats. In contrast to every other poll since the leadership change, this one shows Labor’s gains coming at the expense of the Coalition, who are down seven points on the primary vote to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent, but the result in the earlier poll did not square with last week’s Newspoll quarterly geographic breakdown which had it at 16 per cent. The Nielsen survey of late last week included a sub-sample of 100 Western Australian voters, which had the Coalition on 50 per cent, Labor on 42 per cent and the Greens on 5 per cent.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan throws a curve ball: a phone poll of 600 respondents conducted between Friday and Monday which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party, and 45.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent on the primary vote (with the Greens on 9 per cent). It should be stressed that this is a phone poll as distinct from the weekend face-to-face surveys Morgan usually publishes on Fridays, which are the most Labor-leaning in the business. The results of this poll and the one from Friday should thus not be compared, though the Morgan press release does just that. The last Morgan phone poll was conducted May 26-67, and had Labor at 37.5 per cent on primary, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent, with two-party on 50-50. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. For those confused by this apparently aberrant result, Possum offers the clarification that “exogenous shocks have a large random component to the resultant impulse response function”.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard’s atheism having emerged as an issue, I thought I’d crunch some Australian Election Study survey data on church attendance and voting behaviour, as there have been suggestions Labor will suffer the loss of Christian voters attracted by Kevin Rudd. Defining church attenders as those who go at least once a year and everyone else as non-attenders, 2007 was unusual out of elections going back to 1993 for the narrow gap between the Coalition church attender vote and the total Coalition vote – 2.6 per cent, whereas in other years it had ranged from 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. However, the Labor vote was unexceptional: 1.0 per cent lower for church-attenders than the Labor vote overall, in keeping with an overall range from 3.9 per cent lower to 0.3 per cent higher.
Definately not a Hanson demographic.
Believe me, this man is highly educated, top executive from enemy territory and is definately no bogan.
I’m sure this comment:
[It really blew me away when he said that he and his colleagues found the fact that she is single as very attractive.
He quiped he might have a crack at her.]
was an exercise in male frivolity. But his comments on Gillard were very positive. It is this positive position that took me by surprise.
An echo chamber doesn’t like opposing positions. Possibly as we all probably know PB is mostly a collection of rusted on Labor supporters, and for those not willing to not support their side too hard to placate the indignant crowd. PB is more like comfort food for those with the same opinions.
As with Rudd earlier we now have the cult of Gillard, no wrong will she do, no matter what it is. I have given up this cult business, and prefer to see things as they are.
She has now established the principal that big industry determines the laws of the land, even to the extent of removing a PM. Instead of standing up for the right of government to do what it believes is best for all Australians, she seeing the deposing of a PM because of external pressures, gives in to those same pressures.
We are not surprised to discover this in the Liberal Party, the enemy that they are. But in the party that you support this gives no pause?
Look at the USA where Senate and HOR is basically owned by big business. Look how government in being owned by banks, gave banks full power to do anything without recourse, it destroyed a global economy.
The principal should have been up held, and Gillard should have called them on it the moment the mining industry removed Rudd.
The shame belongs to her and the cultists who wont think, but prefer to enjoy the comfort food and barrack for their football side. Good luck with that. It makes you cowards.
ciao
Does anyone here read Amharic?
http://www.electionethiopia.org/am/2010-06-20-19-17-25/237-????.html
All good points, scorpio. Certainly the fire of an election campaign will see most Labor supporters, however pissed off they may feel, fall in behind Gillard, and Liberal supporters revert to opposing her.
As for Abbott, he’s toast. But to give credit where due, six months ago no-one in their wildest dreams would have thought he could pressure Rudd to the extent that he did. I don’t see him doing much damage to Gillard, though.
Thomas Paine@2552
don’t let the door hit you on the way out. 🙂
It’s Time: I have Abbott Liberal family members, some of whom in the day flirted with voting One Nation. By contrast, the Fraser Liberal section (faction? 😀 ) of my family were aghast at Hanson and what she represented.
None of my friends that I know of have any time for One Nation, so I don’t believe their attraction to Gillard represents a new Hanson-like fawning. I think dyno is probably right that they are seeing in her a certain authoritativeness much like the Thatcherites ascribed to her. I too will wait to see whether this is represented in future polling.
[As for Abbott, he’s toast. But to give credit where due, six months ago no-one in their wildest dreams would have thought he could pressure Rudd to the extent that he did. ]
Are you suggesting that Abbott caused Rudd’s downward slide in net PM rating and ALP primary votes? If so, what did he do and why can’t he do the same to Gillard?
Wow. So according to that Morgan poll, Wyatt Roy would get into Parliament but Warren Entsch would miss out. So much for age before beauty.
[The samples in the Morgan poll are 200 per electorate, which is too small.]
Yep, suspected as much.
Rudd’s downfall was not caused by pressure from the miners, nor by Abbott. It was caused by Rudd.
[By last week they were ready to elect Swan if Gillard didn’t agree to stand. All the faction conveners did was bring matters to a head by showing Gillard the numbers and persuading her to stand.]
My take on this is basically the faction leaders handed Gillard the gun.
She pulled the trigger.
Caucus merely disposed of the body.
I totally agree with you TP.
i wonder if anyone in the Labor Party have thought why people went to the Greens in the first place on Primaries, i doubt it was the mining tax.
Watch how the money which is now required to make up the budgetary shortfall is now taken from working people instead.
Pseph
Does your maxim apply to every leader?
[By last week they were ready to elect Swan if Gillard didn’t agree to stand. All the faction conveners did was bring matters to a head by showing Gillard the numbers and persuading her to stand.]
If this is the case then I’m glad she stood up for the challenge.
[2523
confessions…….. I do think it’s weird though, that non-Labor voters are responding so favourably towards Gillard.]
I don’t think it’s weird. Gillard comes across as being all class – clear, direct, well-humoured, quick-witted, authoritative, authentic, persuasive – and is the embodiment of hard work, determination and a willingness to act. She appears to be a natural leader – to the relief of most of the country!
ShowsOn,
[It’s going to be pretty funny if the mining industry has come with a deal with the Government it accepts yet the Liberals still say they will repeal the tax!
That would imply the Liberals are planing higher company and personal taxes.]
I don’t really want to bang on about the findings I got yesterday, but with “all” the Liberal supporters I canvassed being in favour of at least “a” type of RSPT, then it really seems as though Abbott & Co didn’t really consider their support base out there and just jumped into line with the mining lobby like a drowning person grasping a straw.
The stance the Libs have been taking in the past couple of days seems more confused than anything and is surely not going down well with the majority of its base supporters.
This has got to be a plus for Labor having the guts to put so much on the line to milk the greedy miners for the benefit of the community as a whole. I hope they push that line hard, as I reckon it’s an election plus!
Psephos@2541
😆
That is a nice fairy tale, but you are talking to me. I do not believe there was ‘gagging for weeks’ in caucus to remove Rudd. If there had been the world would have known. There might have been a lot of anxiety about the polls, but no move to dump Rudd.
I know how the factions work, whether in parliament or not. It isn’t a nice democracy where members arrange themselves into the various factions in straight lines, and ‘elect’ a faction leader to ‘represent’ their wishes; and where the faction leaders consult widely with their members building a consensus before putting a proposal for a leadership change to the vote, before taking that view to a joint faction leaders’ meeting, before …
Rather, it is a ruthless process of mutual political support and temporary groupings to gouge positions and influence with the ultimate aim of personal power. Once in a position of power, it is about wielding that power to ensure the position is impregnable.
People down the line from the bosses owe their positions to those further up. They do what they are told in voting, what they do in the party, and who they support. It is a rigid world in which breaking a code of behaviour means political death. In that world, the bosses make the decisions, and the minions follow.
I know it is your stated job to snow people, but please.
Psephos@2560
I do agree with that.
[Does your maxim apply to every leader?]
No. Turnbull was deposed by the climate denialists – it was an issue-based crisis. Minchin and co were determined to block the CPRS and deposing Turnbull was the way to do it. The coup against Rudd was not issue based. It was Rudd based. The majority of the ministry and the Caucus were sick of Rudd, and were convinced he was leading them off a cliff.
Now that the Polls do not look good in Victoria for Brumby will he be dumped?
[I know how the factions work, whether in parliament or not.]
Do you now. Are you an ALP member?
Even if Gillard wins the election I doubt she’ll last another 2 she’ll be knifed just like Rudd.
I wont shed a tear for her when/if it happens.
[Now that the Polls do not look good in Victoria for Brumby will he be dumped?]
If things get really dire, I suppose it’s possible. But I doubt it. Brumby doesn’t behave like Rudd, so he has much more goodwill in his Caucus to fall back on.
Gillard will win the election because of the dill the Liberals have leading them. If Turnbull was leader it may be a different story.
Frank
You want the place to be as TP said do you?:
I’m for diversity of opinion myself.
pseph
so basically policy V personality
Any other reasons/causes?
TP, i think your going a bit over the top. Personally , i dont subscribe to the theory that the miners have somehow installed Gillard. She was always the expected successor to Rudd it just being a question of when. While Rudds handling of the RSPT may have been a factor, i dont think it was the only or even primary reason he was ousted.
Will be interesting to see whats announced tomorrow on the RSPT. Most intersting will be how the issue of “retrospectivity”. Its a furphy, but it looks like the Govt is avoiding calling the miners on that as it would derail negotiations straight away.
Ive seen reported that the miners will be able to roll the present market value of their established mines into the new system? Anyone know what this actually means? I’d think it means they can claim the present “market value” of a mine as a kind of decuction before they have to paty the RSPT??
If that is the way it works then it will only delay revenue that the tax would have generated from existing mines. A bit sad but if it gets the deal done not a breaker for me.
[so basically policy V personality
Any other reasons/causes]
Er, policy vs scant policy
steady personality vs unhinged personality
It’s Time:
[Are you suggesting that Abbott caused Rudd’s downward slide in net PM rating and ALP primary votes?]
I wouldn’t say Abbott “caused” it, but I do think he modestly contributed to it.
[If so, what did he do]
Primarily, articulated simple (perhaps over-simplified) objections to a number of Government policies. His simplicity contrasted favourably with Rudd’s bureaucrat-ese.
[why can’t he do the same to Gillard?]
Because her first language is English, whereas Rudd’s, apparently, isn’t. Also because she’s shiny and new. Also because she’s a woman, and Abbott is tagged (fairly or not) as having “problems with women”, so verbal attacks on her will go down poorly with lots of people who are undecided (or soft Liberal supporters). Also because people relate to Gillard better than they related to Rudd, so it’s harder to make people feel negative towards her.
[2560
Psephos
Rudd’s downfall was not caused by pressure from the miners, nor by Abbott. It was caused by Rudd.]
I completely agree. He was the author of his own misfortunes. The moment when I lost all respect for him came on Wednesday night when he announced a special meeting of the caucus would be held. He said it had become evident that he had lost the support of the factional leaders and that a spill would therefore ensue. I viewed this as an attempt to disqualify his challenger – basically, to damn her with the suggestion that she could not be a legitimate challenger. I thought at the time this was a thoroughly discreditable statement. Sadly, some the mud has stuck. Maybe one day Rudd will show some contrition for his mismanagement and misjudgment.
Psephos:
[Rudd’s downfall was not caused by pressure from the miners, nor by Abbott. It was caused by Rudd.]
I’m not an insider, but I do know things are rarely that simple.
BK
Pspeh outlined in kevs case that it was kev himself the problem,In turnbulls case it was more the policy
I was curious as to other causes
Psephos@2571
I’ll take that as a, “Yes, you’re right, but how do you know?” shall I?
Gus
OK – I do agree largely with that proposition. Although Rudd did seem to have Turnbull’s measure.
@marky marky/2574
That may happen, but not till after election, when Liberals are shocked they didn’t win.
I recall much earlier posts in PB about Rudd’s behaviour – in particular on his lack of respect for others. It was there earlier, got worse, then got very much worse, and good riddance.
It is a tragedy that Gillard has promised him a senior ministry.
I thought Rudd went of the rails the moment he stood outside parliament and guareenteed to help those companies over the insulation bungles and then he backed down on such a promise. This i thought was a massive betrayal of trust. That i thought was his big mistake.
He also may have been briefed by Garrett and had conversations with him on dealing with it and quite possibly he hesitated and did not listen to his minister.
These were his mistakes.
Not Naplan and the few education bungles- Gillard, not the mining tax- Swan, whom i cannot work out why they deciced to introduce this in an election year.
Why not straight after?
[It is a tragedy that Gillard has promised him a senior ministry.]
That was last week. September may be a different proposition.
From our favourite Belgian:
[I’ll take that as a, “Yes, you’re right, but how do you know?” shall I?]
You can take it as a question you’ve failed to answer. If the answer is “no”, as I suspect, then my next question is, what is the source of your knowledge on this subject?
[It is a tragedy that Gillard has promised him a senior ministry.]
Veterans’ Affairs would be about right.
Julia is on the verge of a deal with the miners as broken exclusively here on PB last night by Centre at 7.11pm. 😀
The miners will be happy and the government will be happy. The miners have acknowledged that the Australian people are entitled to a greater share of their resourced without disadvantaging the industry in any way.
Message to the LOSER Greens: Do not stop the deal from passing through the Senate like you did with the ETS and deny the people a greater share of their royalties because it is not as much as to your LOONY likings.
[It is a tragedy that Gillard has promised him a senior ministry.]
Who says she has?
marky marky – agree re: start of Rudd’s decline. The whole fiasco out the front of Parliament House was such a blatant PR stunt that he could never promise.
[It is a tragedy that Gillard has promised him a senior ministry.
Who says she has?]
I thought she did so publicly?
Having said that, if she wins, she’ll be able to do whatever she likes.
I’m afraid I have to agree with Marky, much as it pains me. Rudd’s failure to support Garrett was a serious error. The Hawke Report exonerated Garrett, but by failing to support his minister Rudd sold the pass on that issue.
[ It is a tragedy that Gillard has promised him a senior ministry.
Who says she has?
I thought she did so publicly?]
I’d be very surprised.
The subbie might have got it wrong:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/julia-gillard-announces-reshuffle-promises-rudd-a-senior-cabinet-spot-if-labor-is-re-elected/story-e6freon6-1225885216570
Psephos @ 2596
I agree. He should have had the strength and ability to stand by the facts and prosecute the arguments a la Possum. Instead he came out with the damaging mea culpa and hung the innocent Garrett out to dry.
The beginning of the end.
Gee that is first, he finally admits to agree with me.
Another failing which needs to be addressed is Conroys’ net filtering plan. It should be scrapped.
Hopefully after the election Conroy will be scrapped as well, and on saying that as much as annoys me Shorten should perhaps replace him, as he does at
least have more intelligence this guy.