Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
Is the Liberal party campaign motto gonna be “Win one for Kev?” now? 😆
As for this opinion poll. While it is nice to have a real poll quoted, instead of the plethora of online polls people have been quoting as gospel in the last couple of days, the poll is probably not that accurate.
However, if it is accurate, it is a great one for Labor. While the thing very quickly pointed out is that the 2PP hasn’t moved, it should also be noted that the primary vote has leaped in the air for Labor! This is much better, because it puts us in a better position to win. Also, solidifying your base is the first part to rising in the polls. And that appears to be what this is. When Abbott and the Liberal Right assassinated Turnbull last year, the nly thing that happened in the polls for a short while was the Liberal primary vote solidified. Plenty of Laborites lauhed and said he was preaching to his own base. However, after that, it left them in the position of just having to remove voters from the other side. At the same time, the overconfidence Labor felt, led to it shooting itself in the foot and losing primaries. If this poll is accurate, we have started returning to our strong status again, and will next start bringing back the swing voters.
It may just be a honeymoon bounce, but take heart that it killed Abbott’s honeymoon!
The miners had better take any concession they can get. With Labor now on track for a resounding win they they won’t be getting any handouts after the election.
Where’s your buddy Psephos Frank, I liked talking to him!
The miners have got nothing.
Probably busy offline. His boss’ party just changed leadership.
He’s also probably lying low, as a lot of people on here (unfairly) decided to take their anger out on him over the leadership change.
cheers. Had been thinking about it writing something, but when I saw WIlliam’s link to Bolt’s post on the internal polling it got me going.
Regardless of the newspolls, if you were an MP and you were shown that you were going to get wiped out, you’d be dopey not to act.
Radguy, maybe you should lay off the red bull.
Unfair?
But I like riding the red bull!
I won’t put any faith in any opinion poll for the next 2 weeks. By then the emotion will have gone out of the leadership change (euphoria and betrayal) and people will take a more sober look at the alternatives with the full awareness that we are getting to the pointy end of the electoral cycle.
Should have thought about that before you dumped our leader.
It’s Time 410
Absolutely. Just wanted to analyse a poll for old time’s sake. 😀
I’m procrastinating getting work done – crap, I have a trade show tomorrow so I need to make some stock. I am getting distracted, thanks for being polite to me!
So why are you guys blogging at 9am on a Saturday morning? You’re all very passionate about keeping Jules, but most people don’t agree with you, otherwise the alp blogs wouldn’t have been shut down. Oh, I know why, it’s your job! Lucky you don’t have much budget.
Radguy
That’s cos they are the most easily spambotted!
Most spambotting & organised spamming comes from the hard right. We know that from the “I change my vote if you don’t dump Turnbull” spambotting & SMS spamming that had Abbott elected Liberal leader!
If Bolt is excited, it’s because he know the hard right spammers & bots are at work.
Radguy – the Labor blogs have been shut down because they were being spammed by Liberalbots.
One very interesting thing from those leaked “internal polling” numbers on Bolt’s site. Even though it was predicting a wipeout for the ALP, it still had Dutton losing his seat.
If that isn’t news to warm your heart, then I don’t know what is 🙂
The shoe has now been firmly placed on the other foot, and the whisper has already started in some parts of the commentariat. The news media need only recycle the headlines and script that they have been singing in unison for 3 or 4 months about a leader on the nose and out of touch with the electorate, and substitute the word ‘Abbott’ for the word ‘Rudd.’
The first two reliably conducted polls, by Nielsen and Galaxy, both show a decisive shift in primary votes back to the ALP and away from The Greens, with the Coalition steady, or down a bit. 55% to 45% in Nielsen and 52% to 48% in Galaxy on the TPP scores is now the trend.
The preferred PM metric has shifted dramatically back to the ALP, with Gillard back into major double digit territory over Abbott, although former PM Rudd was always in front of the Opposition leader anyway, albeit with a shrinking margin recently.
The very interesting thing for me in these figures is the 59% to 32% margin in Gillard’s favour on the preferred PM score – this is why the Government can now confidently move forward, as this is the foundation on which a decisive election victory will now be built.
Clear the decks by resolving the RSPT impasse, move forward on some climate change initiatives, and above all, appoint Kevin Rudd as the Foreign Minister, if he accepts the offer. This will bind up the party’s wounds, and give them a positive narrative to assure those voters who respect and like the former PM (a large chunk of the nation, in my view) and want him to remain as an active part of the Government.
The building blocks of a famous Labor victory at the coming election are now in place, and the Opposition’s plans are in disarray.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the Liberal’s federal council meeting today!
Hopefully we can use the historic precedent (Female PM) of Gillard being PM, to increase voter registration amongst the young.
That is probably wise Its Time. Still, with no obviously adverse reaction from media (who mostly didn’t like Rudd) and no gaffs from Gillard, it looks a good start. As I said, if she makes a compromise with the RSPT and fixes her ETS error she will win. Though if, as Hartcher reported, she was one of those wanting the ETS dumped and Tanner argued in its favour, then my own faith in Gillard is perhaps less than that of the electorate at this point.
Radguy #413
FFS, because we read our morning news – MSM & Blogsphere – online! iPhones, iPads, laptops etc mean we can read it where we used to read print news – in bed, eating breakfast, on the way to work (for public t’port users), at work …
Except, with iGadgets, we can read it from round the world 24/7/52, as it happens (not up to a day later), unfiltered by editors & journos, in places & at times we couldn’t read print news! Wake up in the middle of the night or early morn & can’t get back to sleep? Go on line & read the world’s news & blog debates as they happen. Stuck in a boring situation, use your iPhone apps.
The real difference is that, using iMedia, we can instantly react to the news & take part in the debate, becoming part of both.
Doesn’t everyone who’s iMedia literate?
Also, I noticed the other day in parliament, everyone on the Lib front bench was asking their questions with a lot of stammer and little confidence, except Hockey. He seemed chirpier than usual. Is he excited about the prospect of now toppling Tony after the election and getting the Libs back on track?
Waheed Aly would be too homophobic for Melbourne
These opinion polls are not a surprise, though I am surprised that the Lib vote has held up as well as it did. The polls may very well narrow between now and the election but part of Labor’s new strength will be that they have shored themselves up on the left by detaching that soft Green vote.
Agree with Big Ship that finding a way through the RSPT impasse and detailing a carbon price are the keys to the next few weeks / months respectively. If they are not solved, the polls will come back to where they were except preferred PM as Julia is a much more saleable item than Kevin or Tony.
Pebbles – it’s psephos’ arrogance and hyprocisy that people now dislike him for. Not his “role” in Rudd’s downfall.
To Speak of Pebbles
I’m sure JG (for the gov) & the ALP (for the political party) will. Howard would never have pulled 2007’s stunts to limit pre-election enrolments if he didn’t know most of them were ALP or Green voters (most of whom 2nd preference the ALP).
Yesterday, I had a look at the 2007 election results for Melbourne. Despite the Greens huffing and puffing, I am not sure that they can pull it off for two reasons.
1. Julia Gillard – enough said
2. A large proportion of the residents in Melbourne live in public housing – and the booths that serve these areas had massive (talking 70+%) ALP primaries in 2007.
Effectively, those public housing tenants are a Gibraltar for Labor. There also seems to be some assumption that gentrification is helping the Greens, methink that there may be a lot more rusted on Liberal votes in Melbourne (never a vote winning number) than they care to admit.
Pebbles
My 8 year old daughter is quite chuffed that there is a woman PM. A long way off enrolling but no doubt a positive thing for little girls to aspire to.
If I recall, the 18-24 vote for the left in 2004 and 1996 was pretty good for the Libs, much better than would have been expected.
A fickle group Gen Y….
Believe it or not, I don’t ask this out of partisan interests.
One of my core beliefs is that as many people as possible should be on the role, regardless of whom they intend to vote for.
Obviously the AEC would need to have a neutral “Make your voice heard” campaign, but if the ALP could jump in with their own “Be a part of history” campaign, it’d aid the cause.
“One of my core beliefs is that as many people as possible should be on the role, regardless of whom they intend to vote for”
Nothing to worry about, that just shows a commitmnet to democracy and the process.
blackburnpseph
Anyone old enough to have registered to vote in a March 1996 election is not exactly Gen Y, is s/he!
BTW: It was GenX (the Boomer kids’ with the usual “backlash against parents’ attitudes”) that was fickle, deserting Howard in 2007.
The irony of it all.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/how-abbott-found-an-unexpected-ally-over-climate-change-in-the-gang-of-four-20100625-z9r6.html
“Waheed Aly would be too homophobic for Melbourne”
Are you fishing to see if you get any bites with a blanket statement like that one.
The “straight-talking, authentic” abbott has been exposed yet again as the crooked-talking, unauthentic, shifty bullshitter we always knew him to be. The Liberals have furiously spun his image but people won’t be fooled. Especially women voters, who can see straight through him, and will prefer a dignified, compassionate woman Prime Minister over a knuckle-dragging, right-wing zealot and fundamentalist fruitcake.
OzPol
I should have been more clear. What I was trying to say is that there is a truism that the 18-24 years olds vote heavily for the left (as in 2007 they did). But if I recall, in 1996 and 2004, the vote in this demographic was high for the libs.
I should have Gen Y right out.
Not hard to see why the 18-24 year olds voted for the left in 2007 – Climate Change, John Howard old enough to be their grandfather etc.
I should have … left …Gen Y right out.
“a knuckle-dragging, right-wing zealot and fundamentalist fruitcake”
Cuppa ,I think it was you, that made a similar stament yesterday regarding Tony Abbott.
I asked for a hard evidence to support this statement …conspicuous silence for the at least the few hours.
Please provide a basis for your opinion.
Opinions are subjective. They don’t require “hard evidence”
Tony Abbott is well known to come from the conservative arm of the Liberal party, is known for his reactionary rhetoric and being guided by his own dogmatic catholic beliefs when forming political beliefs.
Are you seeking to imply that he isn’t a right wing zealot, misogynist and fundamentalist fruitcake?
I suppose next you will regurgitate the Liberal slogan that he’s “authentic”, “straight-talking” and “what you see is what you get”?
The travails of the Liberal apologist…
I’ve got the Nielsen results down to a decimal place as well as the change in respondent allocated preferences from the Greens in the Nielsen. Also all the Galaxy questions.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/26/first-gillard-polling/
[Please provide a basis for your opinion.]
His entire time as Minister for Health and Ageing perhaps?
Noone seems to have actually crunched the Newspoll numbers – and if you look at the state by state results, they’re very interesting.
Victoria’s 2PP has risen by a massive 12% but nearly all other states are down for Labor compared to the 2007 election.
(As usual, we don’t know what the Tassie figures are!)
NSW is down nearly 2%; QLD nearly 4%; SA 6%.
WA, strangely enough, is up 1% (possibly couldn’t go down further).
On the 2PP, this means that the only states where Labor has a majority 2PP is Victoria and NSW.
I haven’t done the crunching as to what this means pendulum wise, but doubt that winning virtually every seat in Victoria is going to compensate for losses elsewhere.
Mind you, one poll, sample size, all that good gear….
[The last time we saw polls move up that sharply was when Rudd took over from Beasley – and went on to cream Howard in 2007.
I reckon Tone had better start thinking about what he’d like to do after politics.]
I can’t see Abbott doing anything but politics. At 70 years of age he’ll be on the opposition back benches sitting alongside the stuffed and mounted remains of the member for O’Conner.
Tom 444
At some point he may get one of his big business mates to appoint him to some high salary position, so he can pay off that second mortgage and continue his lavish lifestyle. 😆
For those who missed it yesterday, and because thought it was quite funny.
LOLCATS
The Greek Tragedy of KRudd
http://dailylolz.lolpolz.com/
Political message removed from my site, I prefer not to mix business and politics.
OK, state by state:
Seats lost:
NSW
Robertson Gilmore Macarthur Bennelong 4
QLD
Herbert Dickson Longman Flynn Dawson Forde 6
SA
Kingston Hindmarsh 2
WA – no change
Tas/NT – unknown
total losses: 12
Seats gained:
Vic – McEwen LaTrobe Dunkley Macmillan Aston Casey Gippsland Menzies (no Andrews) Goldstein (please) Higgins (even more amusing) Wannon Flinders (let Hunt complete kinder) Indi (!!!) Kooyong
Gains: 14
Net gain: 2 seats
OK, I can live with that, but it won’t do much to soothe the nerves of those in marginals outside of Victoria.
May be they should just get out there and campaign even harder….
It is clear now that the Libs won’t do any better than about 41%. That’s what they were getting with Rudd as PM and they certainly won’t do any better under Gillard.
I don’t believe for one moment that Labor will get a 47% PV at the election. But they don’t have to – 42% or 43% will provide a good solid victory and at the very least maintain their present majority.
Hindmarsh ain’t budging.
Georganis is popular and managed to stem the tide in 04, and be re-elected by a huge margin in 07. It is a a seat full of immigrants and only was held by the Libs for so long due to the popularity of Chris Gallus
I’d be watching Boothby actually. With the right candidate, that could fall to Labor.