Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

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  6. No 355

    Too bad Billbowe is in Western Australia. Incidentally I’ll be in Perth for about a week in early July.

  7. What is driving me crazy is the sheer viciousness the media have been spouting for months now – turns out Rudd was just too decent to show up Gillard for the lying slag she really is.

  8. Cud Chewer@342.

    After re-reading your post I realised I might have made a mistake & offered apologies in my post@327.

    Its been a tense few days and my anger at the persecution of one of the too few honest people in Australian politics is still pretty raw. I felt much the same way with how the Liberal Party treated Malcolm Turnbull & I still detest their ongoing treatment of Malcolm Fraser.

    I guess I had a “seniors moment” & lashed out before engaging the brain.

    Sorry again for misreading your post.

  10. I guess if Julia manages to stitch up a deal with the mining companies, Abbott’s chances are shot. Nothing left for him except hysterics and hyperbole about “assassinations” and wotnot.

  11. shepherdmarilyn I’ve said this before many times, under many different handles. Rudd’s problem was the way he handled the media. He just didn’t like them, and they didn’t like him.

  14. Radguy@362

    Hmm. Looks like the alp blogs are still down. I wonder why? Could it be because of this?
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-wastes-a-perfectly-good-pm-20100624-z0nx.html?comments=210#comments

    Might just go visit a mate in Altona on Sunday. Might just cruise past Jule’s office, see if anything is going down. Might put a little extra petrol in the car, could be a bit of traffic on Sunday.

    We want Kev back!

    Get with the program – the Polls are saying Kevin who ?? 🙂

  15. i said it from the first minute. She should, she should.

    [Voters should prepare for an election as early as August, with senior MPs saying Ms Gillard was expected to seek a mandate for leadership as soon as possible.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/julia-gillard-set-for-early-election/story-e6freuzr-1225884460585

    Isnt it interesting how the narrative among the MSM hacks has suddenly shifted to “the problem is now Abbott”. Malcolm, come-on down.

  23. That’s a pretty strong start. At this point, it looks like everybody’s happy with Prime Minister Gillard. She has the ball, all she has to do now is not drop it.

    Unless the Coalitions attacks about the school program and all the hyperbole about the spill actually turn out to have some real cutting power.

  25. Frank and Lamarkian, you are the first people to see my work and not compliment it. I even get compliments from my competition. You don’t like me very much do you?

  26. The unhinged one snuck out his cave last night and got his nose bloodied.
    Pity he can’t go back in because of the Lib conference this weekend.
    He can restock the cave with more supplies but he has to come out again some time.
    Don’t be surprised if his colleagues blow up the entrance while he’s in there this time.

  27. Age/Nielsen: 55-45. The honeymoon has started. Gillard MUST seek the people’s mandate asap

    [In an Age/Nielsen poll taken on Ms Gillard’s first two days as Prime Minister, more than half the voters surveyed said they approved of her ascension.

    The government’s two-party vote has leapt 8 points in three weeks, taking it to a 55-45 per cent lead over the opposition.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/gillard-regains-a-winning-edge-20100625-z9sv.html

  28. Bit obscure BK, don’t know what you are talking about. I don’t trust any media stats at the moment. News didn’t report alp website getting swamped with anger – this is news!

  31. Adam I don’t know if you still bother here, but if you do, I have a favor to ask. Can you get someone to get the end of the world polling to possum. I don’t even care if he mocks it as stupid and tears it apart I’d just like to know it exists. I don’t believe it does. But if it did and someone with year 10 maths could draw the absurd conclusions the power brokers did then maybe I’ll feel a little better that my party is going run by year 10 morons rather than by scum.

  34. Jasmine@381

    Adam I don’t know if you still bother here, but if you do, I have a favor to ask. Can you get someone to get the end of the world polling to possum. I don’t even care if he mocks it as stupid and tears it apart I’d just like to know it exists. I don’t believe it does. But if it did and someone with year 10 maths could draw the absurd conclusions the power brokers did then maybe I’ll feel a little better that my party is going run by year 10 morons rather than by scum.

    No figures as such, but Grog quoted it here, as it was originally posted by Andrew Bolt.

     http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2010/06/half-of-what-i-say-is-meaningless.html 

  36. Bolt on Ch 9 this morning. Reckons we should completely ignore the two official polls so far (which only contain a ‘minor’ swing back to Labor apprently). BUT – we should all focus on the Ninemsn online poll for the real reaction. I haven’t watched a morning talk show for a while – is he really getting that blatantly stupid these days?

  37. [ lying slag ]

    Anything that keeps Abbot out of power can only be a good thing, if there is a slight shift to the left, a big if given the nature of the installation well more the better.

  38. Thanks Frank.
    My fave para in Grog’s post

    Just wait till she goes back to the Adelaide – no doubt she’ll stop by Unley High. I think Chris Pyne will be very worried. Very worried.

  39. You forget that many of the people you upset aren’t that scared of the libs. Not my preference, but I will not vote for the ALP if this treachery isn’t immediately reversed. I like Malcom by the way. He would represent that side far better than Tony, as long as he has our best interests in mind. I believe Australia’s best interests are served when both sides are strong. I like a good fight!

  40. gloryconsequence #386

    Bolt on Ch 9 this morning …. is he really getting that blatantly stupid these days?

    Has been travelling ever farther from the Real World since about 9.30pm 24Nov 2007.

  41. Well time to move on from the coup, though my view of the plotters has not changed. These polls, especially the Nielsen, suggest that the change to Gillard has worked for Labor. They still need to do an ETS/Carbon Tax policy and RSPT deal as well before the election. But once those two are sorted Gillard should probably go to the polls. Labor will improve further after the tax cuts start on July 1 too. We have hardly heard a word about them. I have nothing against Gillard and she has clearly handled events and the media well since taking over. She will become Australia’s first elected female PM.

    Gillard has the potential to remain PM a long time, because she is young and I don’t see anyone more skilled on either side. Suggestions that the schools program could haunt her are silly. There were thousands of succesful projects and only a handful of bad ones; it was no worse than any normal government spending program. As the projects are completed, there will be far more parents and teachers out there with evidence that she did good in front of them, than media beatups she go it wrong.

    That being said, the final Morgan poll shows that Rudd was coming back anyway. I am more certain than ever now that Labor would have won under Rudd. We still haven’t even seen the bounce from the tax cuts on July 1. The whole spill was still a panic, or plotters siezing their window of opportunity, motivated by greed and/or caving in to big mining money.

    Just as Rudd’s ETS backflip harmed Rudd in the long term, the reputation of the plotters (Feeney, Farrell, Shorten and Arbib) has been harmed in the long term. All will remain powerful in the back rooms, but none will ever become PM – if they tried they would be damaged goods. I know Bill Shorten is referred to as the “PM in waiting”, but tell him he’s dreaming. He will be waiting a long time. If he ever tries now, he will be portrayed as another disloyal, thuggish union boss who has never had a real job, and that mud will stick, because it is true.

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