Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
Tomorrow’s OO:
Maybe there is a different yardstick for the miners.
briefly,
You can go on believing that, after all it’s exactly what the people who instigated the event “want” people to believe to justify it. It really is just a “look over there” distraction as justification.
As far as Qld goes, it is just a heap of bunkum! The LNP are absolutely livid that they don’t look likely to pick up Flynn, I’ll back Brunker any day to hold Dawson and the so-called marginal poll is just a pile of shit as I outlined earlier.
Anyway, I’m off to bed. Picking over the bones is pretty useless now anyway but it still pays to be aware of the con job that has being pulled.
Gillard ought to be careful that she doesn’t roll over on her back to entirely placate the mining industry. If what she offers is only a shell and sells out in if full, then the suspicion strengthens that her rise was bought about by them.
I will be hoping that there is still a lot of meat on this, especially since with increased polls she has a little more bargaining power.
I am for productivity and progress.
Actually you mean Gillard and Swan, who were the ones selling this hard to the PM. It was in fact their ineptitude. Or was its Rudd’s ineptitude for paying attention to his senior colleagues?
Again we find it fashionable to diss the ex PM in order to justify the now.
Looks like Gillard might throw Rudd under the bus, along with the ETS and the RSPT. I get the feeling the bus is going to have plenty under it.
The mining and energy industries will be “very” happy with this. It certainly fits well with the my earlier comments.
The Greens won’t be very happy though I expect. They should have sided with the Government in December. They would already have an ETS right now! Not maybe, “never”! 😉
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/gillard-says-she-led-push-for-delay-on-ets/story-e6frg6n6-1225884955922?from=public_rss
Gillard is clearly a denier. Bonus. Can we have Rudd back?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/gillard-says-she-led-push-for-delay-on-ets/story-e6frg6n6-1225884955922
If Gillard doesn’t offer Rudd a position it gives a clue to weakness and lack of self confidence. It will also encourage the Liberals to go deeper into the events that gave her rise.
Hitherto she has been the steel woman, no evidence of any self doubt.
My very first inclination when she took over from Rudd was ‘the king is dead, long live the Queen’. For we all know she is a person of great ability.
But her flaws may be found hidden in the nature of her current rise and how she handles Rudd. I wait to see how this transpires.
Julia almost sounding like Tony Abbott with this! The bubble of hope and enthusiastic support might not hold its gloss for too long at this rate.
If this turns out to be nothing more that an opportunistic grab for power to satisfy the whims of vested interests like it seems increasingly to be, then there could be a lot of embarrassed posters here on PB and elsewhere!
Sorry, but they accused Rudd of spin and not being really committed? This is less than Howard’s effort.
New thread.