Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 39
1 37 38 39
  1. 1841

    He chose that one because it evokes thought of not only a flat Earth but a square one. You can`t have Global Warming on a flat Earth. Even better than “Sunrise” on Channel 7 which is only evocative of a flat Earth.

  2. Thomas Paine,

    [Once you sell yourself to corporate interests how does it make you different from the Liberals. And how do you escape being their bitch from then on.

    In the US it is awful and obvious. The sell out to big business by the Senate and House, especially over the past 12 months.

    It would be irony that Rudd lost out because he was too naive and honest to not be aware to what extremes the mining industry would go.]

    With the spread of multi-nationals and globalisation, it was always inevitable that we would follow the same path as the US in this regard.

    Everything else usually spreads here and if it is particularly bad, it seems to take us longer to rectify than it does over there.

    Examples are the various Management styles that have been experimented with here, using redundancies as a quick fix during business downturns and losing valuable corporate knowledge, Enterprise Bargaining that is totally unsuited to Australia’s regulated Award system and a host of other experiments.

    I hope that the US political establishment can divorce itself quickly from the cancer of government by big business so that it doesn’t get any more of a foothold than it already has here. Unfortunately it is an insidious cancer that spreads its roots into every nook and cranny in search of the magic dollar and doesn’t care one bit how its bank balances are fattened or how many casualties it leaves in its wake.

    Iraq, Afghanistan, etc etc etc on and on and bloody on!

  3. [1808

    It’s just a fact of life that we, from the forces of goodness, have to climb back on the horse that we desperately want to come first in the race to the line.

    Although many of us jockeys have a bitter taste in our mouth, knowing that the horse has been knobbled by shady, vested interests, we still have to help that horse over the line.]

    Has the horse been nobbled? In what possible way could this be so? This is just more melodrama, though it is hardly required: the events of this week were dramatic enough in themselves.

  4. No, there was never any risk of a loss, that’s why it was done. The party has given itself new leadership so that they can do a better job. p1796 if anyone wants more detail from me. Dunno why the libs get up in the morning. They have failed their bosses. I would honestly put someone like Malcom back in – at least he didn’t offend me, he also seemed to sense peoples real opinions and focussed on these to form a realistic platform to develop liberal policy. Nothing wrong with that. The libs need an enema, but it is hard if there is no nutrition to follow! Remember Homer’s coyote dream? The pyramid is going up on the libs. Media domination doesn’t work anymore. We feed elsewhere.

  5. TP,

    Although there are countless multiple examples of Corporate power gaining advantage through an unhealthy relationship with governing authorities, one particular one stands out to me and that is the “wonderful” Free Trade Agreement that Howard “negotiated” blindfolded with both hands tied behind his back.

    It seems to be totally forgotten just how badly the Australian people were screwed by US Corporate interests there. Bush’s Deputy Dog got taken for a nice old ride with that one and we are the bunnies!

  6. Rad

    by this admittedly hurtful and distressing move the MSM’s control has been diminished somewhat.

    the whipping boy has gone

    where now the jackals?

  7. [someone like Malcom back in – at least he didn’t offend me]

    Well he offended me. First he conspired with a known mole in the public service. A mole who later confessed to forging documents. Second he called for the resignation of the PM and the Treasurer. (!!) Then, when shown to be in complete and utterly foolish error, he refused to apologise to Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan, and further he refused to step down himself. Very offensive. Very Liberal.

  8. My ‘dream ad’ about the refugee non-issue:
    The Silver Bodgie & the former Squatter (i.e. Hawke and Fraser, for those too young to recognise the references) reminding the community about a previous generation of ‘Boat People’, and how genuinely responsible LEADERS chose to NOt use refugees as a basis to scare voters
    The number of Vietnamese ‘boat people’ (where the term originated) then was far greater than the current arrivals.

  9. [Media domination doesn’t work anymore. We feed elsewhere.]

    Who is we? From where does the majority of the voting population get its political news? From the online political blogs and sites like PB and company or from the flyers outside newsagents and newspapers, from current affairs programmes like CA and TDT, from the nightly TV news? IMO it isn’t from the internet.

  10. [Thomas……..And removal is less legitimate when it was Gillard and Swan that pushed hard for the two decisions that have caused the most damage. Oddly Rudd has suferred for the times when he did listen to others rather than follow his intuition.]

    Yes, Kevin has paid the price. It’s not fair. But his position had become more or less irretrievable, whatever the route by which he arrived there. Politics is brutal. I think Swan should have been dumped too, but that is not to be.

  11. TP,

    [This doesn’t look like a transition because of polls, though that helps the process. I am less than satisfied at this stage. I will wait to see what else is written about this.]

    I think the forces involved would prefer it to be brushed under the carpet and confined to the dustbin of history as quickly as possible.

    There will be no end of distractions floating around to muddy the waters and see that that happens.

    There’s bugger all that anyone much can do about it anyway and they well know it. We just have the sour taste of “Coalition Lemon” left to savour lightened by a sprinkling of Labor victory sugar, we hope.

  12. [1867

    someone like Malcom back in – at least he didn’t offend me

    Well he offended me. First he conspired with a known mole in the public service. A mole who later confessed to forging documents.]

    And dissembled every step of the way. He appears to think that personal ambition is a sufficient excuse to ventilate fabricated allegations of corruption…

  13. [1864
    Tom the first and best

    Are people missing my post at 1850 because it is the last on that page?]

    I’ve never missed any of your posts, ttfab, not for a moment.

  14. Most likely a crook then. In this case, he didn’t leave the libs either. Being legitimately deposed is different to being stabbed in the back. If you get stabbed in the back by your party, you leave. This point alone is enough to secure this election.

    Gee, I think the well has run dry for the libs. I can’t describe how I feel about Ruddock here. I do remember kids in detention.

  15. The SMH: Gillard to offer deal to miners

    The Gillard government plans to end the war with the mining industry this week by announcing changes to the resource super profits tax designed to placate big players such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, as well as the smaller operators.

    The Herald understands the changes to the mining tax largely resemble those Mr Rudd was to announce last Friday, the day after he was deposed as prime minister.

    These were designed to address the concerns of the coal-seam gas industry by reshaping the tax to more closely resemble the petroleum rent and resource tax, which applies to offshore oil and gas.

    The rate at which a super profit is defined would increase from 6 per cent to 11 per cent. The government would drop $1 billion in exploration rebates and taxpayer-funded writeoffs for failed ventures, and change the point in the production process at which the tax is levied.

  16. [1882

    The SMH: Gillard to offer deal to miners

    The Gillard government plans to end the war with the mining industry this week by announcing changes to the resource super profits tax designed to placate big players such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, as well as the smaller operators]

    This sounds good to me. I wonder if the 40% rate will hold?

  17. briefly,

    [Has the horse been nobbled? In what possible way could this be so? This is just more melodrama,]

    Have close look a my earlier posts and then a nice quiet think about it.

    If you think that the mining/energy interests and the Unions that represent the employees that work for them as well as media were nothing but casual and unrelated observers of the particular events that have and are unfolding, then I have a lovely bridge to offer you and going ever so cheaply! 😉

  18. Maybe political representation from business is over. I can’t think of anything that would help these guys. A dialogue can be useful, but they don’t have any appeal because they don’t have any personal credibility, whether or not they have a valid point.
    You libs really stuffed it didn’t you!
    Your not going to come near the government until you find someone with credibility.
    Business and innovation are your job to foster. You don’t foster very well, and you are lacking in so many ways. Gee, any wonder Tony had to do some remortgaging, sponsorship deals are a bit few and far between.

  19. Another plus that Rudd would have been able to take into the election. Julia will be able to take advantage of it now. Abbott’s policy to unwind and cancel the NBN is shot down in flames now.

    Rudd stared down Telstra and won where Howard cringed in fear and gave in to their every whim!

    [Telstra chief executive David Thodey says the broadband deal with the Federal Government will drive substantial cultural change in the company.

    Telstra has agreed to give the National Broadband Network access to some of its infrastructure as part of an $11 billion deal.

    Mr Thodey has told Inside Business that as network is rolled out, Telstra will become less of a telephone utility company and more of a retail operation.

    “It’s a great engineering culture, it’s been a great strength for many many years, but we’ve got to become a sales and marketing company,” he said.]

  20. England gets 1 back. But Germany are my bet to win the whole shebang, so the Poms will be crying into their beers this evening.

  21. Oops… England scored again but it wasn’t recongnised by the ref. That ref will be in for a very very bad day if it makes a genuine difference to the game.

  22. I wonder if Troothy was there to see him off. There will certainly be a heap of RWDB’ers celebrating tonight.

    [A large crowd turned up at Sydney airport to farewell Sydney’s most senior Islamic cleric, who has been deported.

    Sheikh Mansour Leghaei, a Shia cleric, was ordered to leave Australia after being declared a security risk.

    Dr Leghaei boarded a flight to Iran tonight and about 200 people from the Islamic Youth Centre at Earlwood turned up to support him.

    He has lived in Australia for 16 years and says his deportation is unjustified.

    Dr Leghaei says he has never been given an explanation as to why ASIO has deemed him a security risk. ]

  23. Fiz

    It is just disgraceful that England’s second goal was disallowed. The ball clearly crossed the line. They’re going nuts over here. They should have instant replay.

  24. I’d like to see the govt stick with 40% as well. It wouldn’t bother me if they raised the profit percentage where it cuts in though – 6% was too low.

  25. scorpio, I think you don’t need to have a consp*racy theory to account for the visceral reaction of voters in WA, parts of QLD or SA to the RSPT. And Kev’s numbers started going sour long before the tax was announced. It is just a very badly thought-out idea. The principal – collecting resource rent – is fine. No-one can argue about that. But the tax needs to be well-crafted and needs to reflect input from the miners.

    Frankly, by his ineptitude, Rudd put his political fortunes – and those of the Government in general – in the hands of Labor’s enemies. It was a gross political miscalculation from which he seemed unable to extract himself.

  26. Agree with you Dio. Fifa’s reasons for not adopting replay technology is pathetic. Too expensive? Yeah right, Mr. Fifa-Moneybags.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 38 of 39
1 37 38 39