Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

  1. [Surely Rudd wouldn’t be offered a cabinet position until after the election?]
    Gillard should offer him Foreign Affairs and see what he says.

    Whatever happens, he is a Labor leader and former PM, he deserves respect.

  2. Wow so no change in 2PP…

    Great result after knifing a PM whilst he was on 52-48 aswell!

    Re: 3-4 on Lib front bench worth keeping

    Bruce Billson (should be leader IMHO)
    Ian McFarlane (very experienced old hand who still has alot to give)
    Greg Hunt (actually intelligent despite sounding like a 14 year old)
    Michael Keenan (future up and comer and one of the few MPs from WA not to be a looney!)

    The rest can be thrown in the bin. This includes Tone and Bishop.

  3. [Wow no bounce except for primary lol!

    That really worth knifing a 1st term PM?]
    From the last thread. Glen, wasn’t it you that was telling me Labor couldn’t win with the poor PV they had in the polls? I think this answers your question.

  4. Like a lot of people on here, I doubt the public has entirely absorbed yesterday’s events. I don’t know that I’d read too much into a poll right now…

  5. From the previous thread

    [marktwain – Abbott admitted tonight that he did say ‘famous victory’ but when KO’B
    kept at it he refused to say ‘yes’ again but rambled on ]

    Bullsh1t he rambled on – Abbott made a killing blow when he said that if the libs weren’t on the verge of a famous victory, then what on earth was Labor doing stabbing its own first term leader in the back?

    most of the parliamentary ALP appears to have agreed with Abbott that the Libs were on the verge of a famous victory.

  6. Yes Glen that is about it plus if the Liberal Party were smart I would add the following to your list

    Maris Paynes
    Malcolm Turnbull
    Scott Morrison

    Actually when I think about it most of the best talent floating around the Liberal Party are seen outside of the parliament.

  7. Thanks, Glen.

    Chainsaw is one I have utmost respect for, especially his efforts with Wong on the ETS.

    Can we steal him, along with Mal? You know they want to come to the dark side 😉

  8. LOL! Funniest part!
    [The only measure where Mr Abbott topped the survey was that 52 per cent said he was someone they don’t like much compared with 24 per cent saying that of Ms Gillard.]

  9. [most of the parliamentary ALP appears to have agreed with Abbott that the Libs were on the verge of a famous victory.]
    That was then, this is now.

  10. Turnbull would be good but he’s currently on the front bench because Tone is gutless.

    Could restore a lot of economic cred with Mal in Treasury or Finance.

    I still pray of course for the day that Mal Brough takes the seat of Fisher one day and becomes leader/dep.

    My future dream ticket = (both as leader or deputy)

    Mal Brough (QLD)
    Bruce Billson (VIC)

  11. [yes Turnbull for the ALP in Melbourne. sssh]
    Waleed Aly would be a great candidate in Melbourne, which apparently is what Tanner wants.

  12. Tom – you would now be very confience of winning Melbourne. what if any personal experience have you had of the guy the Greens are running (Adam Brandt)

  13. This 52 is based on 41 primary, rather than 35. Preference allocations are much more reliable. When Greens are 14% and Others 10% the TPP is really a bit of a guess.

  14. Did anyone else see Channel 9’s poll earlier tonight on their news?
    ALP 54
    Coalition 46

    Julia leading Phoney as Preferred PM: 65-35?

    And Glen: Galaxy always has an inbuilt bias towards the Liberals.

  15. Waleed Aly isnt stupid enough to get into politics.

    If you were smart and he wanted to join the ALP then give him a safe seat so he can be a Minister.

  16. Shorten has been talking about a universal insurance system for funding comprehensive disabled support services.

    He sounded quite genuine about pursuing it, and it makes sense as a scheme. The problem is I can’t see the government getting the air time to make the case for it any time soon, which is a great shame.

    Such a scheme is a prime target for GBNT attacks as well. As I understand it it would be equivalent to the medicare levy. I think the theory is it should actually be fairly efficient and mean that some other insurance would no longer be required like compulsory 3rd party on car rego and probably some medical indemnity insurance, but I might be wrong.

  17. 52/48 while the turmoil was barely complete.

    My impression is that Gillard’s ‘newness’, being a woman, already have a good profile and seen as competent with good personal attributes and her ability to get people to pay attention to politics should see 52 move out a few points more.

    I think it is very useful for Labor that Gillard gets people a little more interested in politics, they may pay a little more attention to the Abbott errors.

  18. jackol

    Agree. It is way too early and there is still a lot of resentment out there in punter land and when it suits the MSM will start to reveal more of the ALP’s dirty laundry.

    Same with Terry McRann being all nice about Rudd. Seriously. Does anyone trust that guy?

  19. Showson @ 21:

    With a name like that (Waleed Aly) , I can just imagine the type of Liberal campaign leaflets in that electorate, if the last election is anything to go by 🙁

  20. Bill Shortwen has actually beren very good in his portfolio, when he was appointed some people took it as an unworthy position for someone of Shorten’s ability but I have seen his work and know he has been very active.

  21. Everyone, a question: Did the Senate pass the government’s changes to the electoral voting act, so the electoral rolls would be kept open for another 7 days after the calling of an election?

  22. [If you were smart and he wanted to join the ALP then give him a safe seat so he can be a Minister.]
    Yeah I think that’s fair enough.

    I hope Kristina Kennearly gets a safe NSW seat when she inevitably loses the election.

  23. And with Galaxy always towards the Libs, that 52-48 is clearly pulled out of thin air. They know that most people will look at the 2PP only.

  24. My future dream ticket = (both as leader or deputy)
    Mal Brough (QLD)

    Glen, get over it, dude. Your lurve for the Bruff is as bad as my hankerings after Julia, but at least she’s still in Parliament. (Plus one.)

  25. [The only measure where Mr Abbott topped the survey was that 52 per cent said he was someone they don’t like much compared with 24 per cent saying that of Ms Gillard.]

    Australia has well and truly twigged that Abbott and the truth are complete strangers.

    They knew this before the Gillard Ascendency and would have behaved accordingly when alone in the polling booth, choosing between Abbott and Rudd.

    We HAVE wasted a perfectly good PM, but we also have a perfectly good one now and there are at least ten more perfectly good ones available to burn through in turn.

    The Pineapple Party have none, no potential, no talent in waiting, no talent in charge, no talent developing, no realisation yet that any perception of any of them having any talent is just an artifact of News Ltd and ABC boosterism and deception.

  26. 22

    I have not met him but he has run for prominent vacancies for the Greens before and I am not aware of him running against the Greens in Melbourne previously so the chances are that he is a good candidate.

    Green victory is not assured but it is more likely with Tanner`s resignation. I was making fun of the idea of Turnbull running for the ALP in Melbourne.

  27. SO,

    [Gillard should offer him Foreign Affairs and see what he says.

    Whatever happens, he is a Labor leader and former PM, he deserves respect.]

    He certainly deserves it because he demonstrated undue respect to those who gave him the chop! I think more than a few are hanging their heads somewhat after this!

    [He also thanked Labor Party members, saying he had been a member for the past 25 years, and would most likely be one for the next 25 years.

    He had kind words for Labor’s federal parliamentary team.

    “Good women and men each one of them, each one of them,” he said, adding they were committed to bringing about a fairer and better Australia.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/rudd-proud-of-achievements-but-not-of-blubbing-20100624-z0tv.html

  28. Notice how the Herald Sun’s online poll has Abbott leading 53% – 47% re “who will you vote for”? The Young Libs hard at work.

  29. hope Kristina Kennearly gets a safe NSW seat when she inevitably loses the election.

    We can do without her, mispellings and all.

  30. [Everyone, a question: Did the Senate pass the government’s changes to the electoral voting act,]
    Pretty sure it passed the Senate last night.

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