Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens down seven points to 8 per cent and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates not cut for politics. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could understand the needs of Australian mothers.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted at 11am yesterday, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and Liberal on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”
Agree ShowsOn, but little respect has been shown thus far.
At the end of the day, their actions mean they want him out of the picture, so I doubt they’d want him in the public eye during an election campaign.
He’s either a reminder of bad policy if you disliked him, or the very unfair treatment he received if you did like him.
I’d have thought they’d make a private agreement to give him an adequate position after the election & ask him to sit tight for a while while the dust settles?
Gary that Herald Sun poll has narrowed. before it was 54-46 to Abbott
I agree with Glen about Bruce Billson, he seems to be one of the few decent ones on their front bench!
Everyone hush on the Abbott bashing – if the libs work out how dodgy he is they’ll drop him for Malcolm and then there’ll be trouble.
Any thoughts on the RSPT resolution?
One wonders why the miners would negotiate a deal to pay more tax when they can influence elections, install Abbott and not worry.
What happens if they have another dummy spit? Do you reckon Jules will be able to run the bad faith line?
# 41 _ trubbell
We are obviously looking at different articles:
[But, despite the strong numbers for Ms Gillard, the poll also found two-thirds of people believe she shares responsibility for the Rudd Government’s failures and stuff-ups, and there is anger about how Mr Rudd was treated.]
66% of respondants say Gillard shares responsibility for failures and stuff ups.
DO you think the Libs can’t work with this?
Come on bludgers, this is a honeymoon poll for Gillard if ever there was one
I meant Gillard in my previous post. After the last few months who can you trust? Certainly not the media, big business, unions and some members of parliament on both sides of the chamber.
Rudd would definitely be in line for cabinet. This is a man who doesn’t hold a grudge obviously and should be now treated with much respect by all, within and without the party.
[Pretty sure it passed the Senate last night.]
So both Fielding and Xenophon supported it?
Good news – more young people enrol to vote, that’s an advantage for both the ALP and the Greens. 🙂
Gary – I’ve followed a few of the online news polls today – within the first 200 votes or so it is always pretty even, and then by 500 votes it’s always heavily swayed towards Abbott. That’s when you know the Young Libs have been made aware of it.
And Mathias Cormann Belgian Accent doesn’t ?
Evan and the trouble is any one who is even half decent after being in politics long enough is shunted intro crap jobs on the front bench to ensure they never rise high.
FFS politics sucks!
I wish Billson was leader he would be like 100x better than Tone and Mesma and Truss and Hockey put together. But nooooooooooooooooooo…he has to sit all the way down the end of the file during QT with a rubbish portfolio!!!!!!
[Notice how the Herald Sun’s online poll has Abbott leading 53% – 47% re “who will you vote for”? The Young Libs hard at work.]
If that’s the best they can do on a Herald Sun voter poll, they’ve got problems.
Triffid. Today Gillard said she wouldn’t announce the new cabinet until she has had a chance to talk to Rudd. Doesn’t sound like a party trying to punt him.
[Kristina Kennearly’s American accent really shts me Shows. I dunno why but it does]
Glen – I think you’ll find her accent is Canadian – and personally I find it very attractive.
No no Squiggie..same article. It’s just that you’ve got your Shannahan goggles on.
That was a good point. But unfortunately it was Abbott making the point, so it got lost in all his umming and ahhing. It is going to be tough for Labor to make the connection between changing the leader and keeping the policies.
I thought Bowen had a good chance to smack Morrison down and missed it. It would have worked especially well seeing as he was directing all his comments straight to Leigh. Something along the lines of:
The polling was telling us that primary votes were shifting from us to the Greens, which suggests we were getting too close to the Coalition’s toxic policy positions, and dragging ourselves down into their polling territory. We’ll certainly be looking at aligning our policies closer to those of the Greens, where they are compatible with our overall philosophy, and further away from those Scott Morrison’s party are still advocating.
[DO you think the Libs can’t work with this?
Come on bludgers, this is a honeymoon poll for Gillard if ever there was one]
They know both Gillard and Abbott very well already. Certainly there is an element of “honeymoon” but make no mistake Tone is on the nose compared to Gillard.
The eternal refrain of victorians. Honesty with intense bitterness.
Glen, the upside is Julia holds a victorian seat.
Mr Squiggle – I will be your blackboard.
Of course people see Gillard has having been involved for she has stepped forward and become leader. will it hurt her, I do know of one or two people that are unimpressed that on one hand she was saying she was not going to lead ther ALP but is now the leader.
The problem the Liberals have is Abbott has a big problem for his record is open to attack as it is for any long term polly.
I actually like his. Sounds a bit SitAfrican which I think sounds good.
Tom @ 42:
You may be joking, but I’m betting that Jules could woo the Malster over. She’d only have to coo a “Oh Mal, you’re such a BRAIN!” into his ear and it’d be all over red rover.
We know the effect of our Jules on oppositon leaders. One by one they’ll succumb to her charms. She’s just toying with Tone.
middle man, I’m not suggesting they’d punt him, but might want to keep him out of sight for a few months until after the election.
[Glen, the upside is Julia holds a victorian seat.]
There is always a little bit of good in ALP Prime Ministers Dave. Just a little 🙂
[At the end of the day, their actions mean they want him out of the picture, so I doubt they’d want him in the public eye during an election campaign.]
He won an election, surely part of that was due to his campaigning skills?
Plus, Australians are more sympathetic to politicians AFTER they have finished being Prime Minister!
[66% of respondants say Gillard shares responsibility for failures and stuff ups.
DO you think the Libs can’t work with this? ]
Expect to hear about it over and over and over and over again from now until election day.
american, canadian… who cares. i like it.
[Everyone hush on the Abbott bashing – if the libs work out how dodgy he is they’ll drop him for Malcolm and then there’ll be trouble.]
Barnaby Joyce isn’t going to allow Turnbull to take over after he confirmed on Q&A the only way to go with CC is an ETS. If they drop Tone it will be someone else the RWers will choose. Julia will make mincemeat of them all.
Umm wrong Darn…
“Keneally was born Kristina Marie Kerscher in Las Vegas to an American father and an Australian-born mother. She lived briefly in Colorado but grew up in Toledo, Ohio, where she attended high school at Notre Dame Academy. While at Notre Dame she was twice awarded most valuable player (1985, 1986) in the Academy’s soccer team.”
She is a yank!
Yes Melton and Werribee are now the unoffical capital of Australia.
triffid i think giving Rudd Foreign Affairs would be concilitory, uniting and very well received by the public.
[american, canadian… who cares. i like it.]
Just because she is attractive MM lol!
[Glen – I think you’ll find her accent is Canadian – and personally I find it very attractive.]
She was born in Las Vegas and grew up in Colorado.
I think you’ll find her accent is Canadian
Ohio is in Canada these days? Who knew.
those floral arrangements are actually pet triffids
You have been warned
actually, last night, that goose on late at night on Sky News said the Lodge was in Melb! idiot.
Gus – NSW Labor should have lost the last election – this ‘extra’ term has been incredibly bad, and so damaging to the ALP brand. I confess to having voted Green 1/Lib 2 at the last state election because there seemed no hope of improvement under Iemma, and lo and behold… Governments have a use-by date, and need time out to renew. The current NSW government is proof of that.
[triffid i think giving Rudd Foreign Affairs would be concilitory, uniting and very well received by the public.]
I agree. And foreign affairs was one of the best portfolio areas of his government. Plus his performance as the shadow minister was very good too.
got it in one Glen!
I am sure the PM can make Werribee Mansion the new lodge.
ShowsOn, I agree re sympathy – that’s why I think they’d want to keep him out of sight until after the election.
If the public is continually seeing Rudd & feeling sorry for him, it only serves as a reminder of those who did him over.
For the record, I’m a Rudd supporter (& recall handing out how to vote cards at the same polling booth as you during the last general election) so want to see him treated well.
he was born in Las Vegas and grew up in Colorado.
Ohio. Little place called Toledo. It’s most famous for Klinger and other Spaniards.
I think you forgot an “h” (and probably a space). If it isn`t a typo then it does not look very politically correct.
[If they drop Tone it will be someone else the RWers will choose. Julia will make mincemeat of them all.]
I hope it is Scot Morrison. He just says anything. He is the Liberals equivalent of a the sort of factional hack that gets into politics for no reason other than their own self advancement.
did you hand them out for him in griffith?
Rudd is simplly spending time with his family and closet friends, he is still at the lodge and the focus is on the PM.
Gillard has said in every interview that she will first speak to Kevin before announcing her cabinet.
[got it in one Glen!]
Dont worry I agree with you.
Her and the Melissa Parke MP I think are the most attractive female pollies in the land.
No midde man – we’re in Adelaide in Sturt
No midde man – we’re in Adelaide in Sturt
[ShowsOn, I agree re sympathy – that’s why I think they’d want to keep him out of sight until after the election.]
Making someone Minister for Foreign Affairs means they are out of sight!
How many Australians do you think know who Stephen Smith is? I’d be surprised if it is more than about 15%.
Shows on 75
Plus he was pretty good, smashing Tone in a Health debate not so long ago. Saw it on tv and I heard a lot about it on PB.
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