Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

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  2. I think L Tingle must believe that Mark Habib is some sort of hypnotic Svengali to get all those Labor Ministers and backbenchers to bend to his evil commands.She should take a Bex and a good lie down.

  5. [I agree with Glen about Bruce Billson, he seems to be one of the few decent ones on their front bench!]

    I watch QT every day and I don;t even know who he is — so he must have heaps of charisma (not)

  6. Aguire/ Mexican BMW

    To be honest, tonight was the first time I found myself wondering whether Our Tone is a bit slow on his feet sometimes.

    I’ll admit I’ve a had few Friday reds, (and its always easy to be critical after a few) but it struck me that Kerry’s questions had some easy responses that Tony just passed up on. For example:

    The libs have changed leaders twice this term, how can you critisise Julia for stabbing rudd in the back:

    Tony did not respond as follows: changing opposition leaders who have not faced a genreal election is a very different thing from changing Prime Minister who was on every poster in every polling booth across the country.

    Anyway, the main question is how much of 52-48 is a honeymoon for Julia?

  10. [I watch QT every day and I don;t even know who he is — so he must have heaps of charisma (not)]

    Jen he’s never given a bloody chance!

  11. I think Kevin would be ideal as foreign minister as soon as he is ready, and that includes next week. As others have said, his trademark has been his love of the wonkish detail of government and I can well imagine he would throw himself into the work with relish. But if he wants time off that is perfectly understandable as well.

    He certainly wouldn’t be a negative for the government or Julia, on board as a minister straight away.

  16. I almost hope we lose a few front benchers (though I hope nationally we close the gap)

    The more people who lose and retire.

    Mesma
    Bronny
    Andrews

    the better chance Bruce has 😀

  17. [those floral arrangements are actually pet triffids]

    Gus – I just knew there was some reason why Bonny frightened me. ‘Triffids’ scared the life out of me when I was a kid and I had nightmares after watching it. Funny how I get the same way after seeing Bronny in QT with the floral arrangement and the large book full of sticky things.

  18. Foreign Affairs will probably need Rudds profile and experience. There are a lot of issues simmering out there at the moment that could blow up into bigger issues over the next 6 months.

  19. [Morgan last weekend before Rudd ousted 53/47 primaries 41/41
    Similar to this Galaxy]
    The one difference though is that Morgan F to F favours Labor, as William pointed out. Galaxy I believe favours the Libs.

  20. [Morgan last weekend before Rudd ousted 53/47 primaries 41/41
    Similar to this Galaxy]

    Yes, although that was Morgan F2F which favours Labor so that 53-47 is probably really more like 50-50 or 51-49.

    All the Galaxy 2PP figure shows is that the switch was neither an immediate disaster nor an immediate stratospheric success.

  21. [Plus he was pretty good, smashing Tone in a Health debate not so long ago. Saw it on tv and I heard a lot about it on PB.]
    I kind of think it would give Foreign Affairs even more stature having it run by a guy who was a P.M.

    I just think it would be wrong for Gillard to do what Abbott has done to Turnbull. Rudd, like Turnbull, is still cabinet minister material, so if he wants to be in cabinet, that’s where he should be.

  22. In all fairness to Geln and the Liberals the attractive Liberal types are best found hanging aroung Higgins, Kooyong, Dunkley and Goldstern than being seen in Canberra.

    Afterall these Liberal girls like two things more than anything. shopping and drinking chardy plus traveling.

  27. [Thought I’d give it one more go. Does anyone know what the greens PV was in the Galaxy poll?]
    It doesn’t say in the article Darn.

  29. To be honest, tonight was the first time I found myself wondering whether Our Tone is a bit slow on his feet sometimes.

    The answer would be yes.

  32. [All the Galaxy 2PP figure shows is that the switch was neither an immediate disaster nor an immediate stratospheric success]

    When your PV has been in the mid thirties and rises back into the forties – a winning position for Labor – that is stratopheric enough for me.

  34. Gillard should offer him Foreign Affairs and see what he says.

    I acutally think no. Offer him something after the election.

    But the time now is not for him.

    They dumped him because he was on the nose, no sense have the smell still stinking up the joint.

  35. [All the Galaxy 2PP figure shows is that the switch was neither an immediate disaster nor an immediate stratospheric success.]
    This, based on one Morgan Poll taken last weekend and one Galaxy Poll?

  38. [They dumped him because he was on the nose, no sense have the smell still stinking up the joint.]
    It’s totally different having him in Foreign Affairs and having him as PM.

    Do you really think people vote based on who will be the Foreign Minister? If that was the case Howard never would’ve won an election with Dolly Downer in that position.

  39. Glen, i like that look!

    I once was fooling around with a girl whose parents had bought her a unit at Milsons Point… I was a young managed funds dude. I used to get her to wear her young libs tee shirt to bed… hehe. i think cos of my work she assumed I was on the same team. hehehe.

  45. I think having Rudd in Foreign Affairs will go some of the way to soften the preception that this was a brutal takeover by the Right.

    I see where Grog is coming from but I am of the view that the ALP need to put their best talent into cabinet rather than do a Liberal Party and lose the likes of Costello and Nelson.

  46. [As the new Prime Minister yesterday spoke with United States President Barack Obama and presided over her first cabinet meeting, the poll of 993 people taken on Thursday and last night shows Labor’s previously languishing primary vote up 14 points to 47 per cent.]
    Now that is an “immediate stratospheric success”.

  47. [well after all it is only one poll

    bows to gary]
    No, it’s another poll showing Labor’s vote has jumped. That makes 3 polls.

  49. they have t-shirts. I’m impressed now we know where they got the idea of workchoices from, that being the want of cheaper t-shirts.

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