Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

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  3. Dee – I am unsure, but whatever the outcome is we can be assured of one thing the Miners and the PM are both tough negotators.

    I suspect there might be some sort of tax developed but one thing the miners will learn quickly and that is Gillard is not easy to out argue.

  4. [Scarpat
    Conspiracy theories???

    We are talking politics here. It’s one big conspiritorial institution.]

    Dee, ain’t it the truth.

  5. Dee.. they’ll do a compromise and put off some of the tax decreases/spending. After all, once they’re safely back in power with the Greens holding the BOP it will be an easy matter to ramp up the rate. Meantime Julia will get away with some rhetoric and suddenly the punters will think its a great idea. Amazing how utterly twisted and fickle humans are. Reminds me of kids from 3rd class.. you’re my bestest friend.. next day.. I hate you!..

  6. [At least that means that it will be at the top of the main page, above the main thread, for a couple of days at least so it will get more posts.]

    Most of them put there mistakenly by people who thought they were on the main thread.

  7. [The Galaxy poll records a dubious reaction to the manner of Rudd’s execution, and a huge preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott. One of these factors is going to to lose salience as the election approaches, and the other is not.]

    One is valid the other not?

    hence
    ‘one of the these things….”

    A sesame street reference (which I know off by heart and am humming as I type- bloody kids) which refers to sets and matching data

  8. Dee@293

    mexicanbeemer
    How do you think the mining issue will pan out?
    I can’t see the miners rolling over for Jules. Although, now she has offered an olive branch any chest beating might put her in good stead to paint them as working against the national interest.

    According to their ABC Perth tonight the MCA (I think) have given Gillard a 2 week deadline re a deal or else the ads are coming back’

  9. ever heard of a honeymoon bounce???

    Worryingly for Labor the Coalition primary is 42 percent, which means Dullard’s hardly made any impact on it. Inevitably the Coalition primary will rise once the public wakes up to its senses and finds that she is the unelectable joke that she is.

    Bring on election!

  11. Frank – That wont bother Gillard for as I say she loves the rough stuff so she will be every bit as blunt as the MCA are

    Two weeks is actually quite a good time frame considering the heated debate and the mining sector now knows that it has the Government potentially on the ropes so two weeks is good

  14. How is it that Brazil and Portugal are playing out a nil-all draw?

    I’m going back to my Google Image Search for the Superfox. At least she kicks arse.

  15. [I can breathe thru my ears

    Good news for Mrs Gus, but watch out that the draught doesn’t upset your brains.]

    MT

    luckily my brains are not part of the transaction

  16. Oh gees guys you really got me.

    I’m so mortally wounded.

    Don’t address the real issue about the anger in the community. Just take a poll among yourselves & you can all go to sleep knowing Labor has a 100% support.

    And incidentally, Glen, I think you spent much too much time chatting with the circle & forgot to take your daily cool aid. You’re even starting to sound like a true Labor supporter. Maybe you can even give your first vote to Labor. Go on, do it for your mates in the circle because not of them has the power to counteract the loss of a primary vote. They’re already part of Labor’s primary vote & they need someone to cross over from “the dark side”.

    And Cud Chewer. I was probably voting Labor before you were born. Have never voted for anyone other than a Labor candidate. But if it makes you feel more secure to believe I’m a Liberal supporter then go ahead. Reality can be a strange land. Better to huddle with your group of 20 & pretend you’re on the moon.

  18. All this talk from Glen regarding Bruce Bilsln reminds of all the talk from the circle jerkers about Bill Shorten. Both men are talentless windbags, not rising stars.

  21. From the article I posted:

    Social researcher Hugh Mackay called the end of Rudd early and believes Gillard has every chance of being endorsed by the people when the election is called. “The great strength of Gillard is that she’s not magic,” Mackay said yesterday.

    “She’s not a figure who inspires a euphoric emotional investment the way Rudd did. She’s much more level, much more feet-on-the-ground: a combination of tough and warm, which he was not. And I presume that she’s an organised, competent manager in a way that he was not.

    “I think in the marginals that voted for Labor last time — where there has been such a collapse and where people had started to doubt that they’d done the right thing — Gillard’s huge contribution will be that those people will say, ‘Now that she’s saying they’re back on track, we didn’t make a mistake after all.’ In the Labor heartland, there will be just a huge sense of relief because this is someone they recognise as one of their own.”

    Rod Cameron, the pollster who worked on more than 50 state and federal Labor campaigns, is more measured. “I’m not one who thought that Rudd was gone, even though his credibility was vastly reduced. I think it would have been a very close-run thing, but has this improved Labor’s chances? Unquestionably.

    “She’s had a dream start, but I guess her problem will be trying minimise the extent to which the way she got the leadership becomes an issue, and deal with the real policy problems. In terms of appeal, leadership and credibility, she is superb.”

     http://www.theage.com.au/national/code-red–were-in-trouble-20100625-z9yx.html 

  22. All this talk from Glen regarding Bruce Bilsln reminds of all the talk from the circle jerkers about Bill Shorten. Both men are talentless windbags, not rising stars.

    Bugger Shorten, look at this rising star.

  23. On the mining tax. The tone of some of the articles i have read about this today suggests that some of the big miners think that they will be able to push the Govt around on this one. I’d think that they may be misreading the situation.

    The Govt has already, shall we say, filed their log of claim on this issue. Clearly dumping the tax is not going to be an outcome. Julia G has said she will negotiate, but at the end of the day, she can decide to walk away, legislate, and the miners will just have to wear it.

    They may plausibly get some movement on the rate at which the tax cuts in, and the Govt will likely dump the 40% rebate for losses that the miners have said they dont care about as quid pro quo. That’ll be easy.

    But the miners have also said that the 40% rate is a problem. Maybe they will get some minor movement on that but i think thats about as big a win as they can reasonably expect.

    If they try and push their silly “retrospectivity” line i dont think they have any chance. If they push too hard on that i’d really laugh if Julia G comes back to them with something like:

    “Ok, lets just have a special company tax rate that applies to companies in your industry of 36% that wont be affected by any other changes we may make from time to time to the general rate of company tax shall we? Oh, and by the way, as part of our program to reduce carbon emmissions over time and get the budget back into surplus, (which i’m sure we can all agree should be a priority objective of the government??) I’ll jusr duck outside and announce a review by Treasury with a view to a phased withdrawl of some of the fuel subsidies that apply to mining operations to encourage investment in energy efficiency by our resources industry.”

    I think Big Dirt has to be very careful they dont misread this situation and get too uppity.

  25. Having observed Gillard in the last 48 hours, she doesn’t look like Prime Ministerial. Even Rudd had more presence than mincing Dullard. She will do well in dealing skirmishes with Abbott, but I think she is going to lack broad electoral appeal, particularly in QLD and WA.

  27. My apologies Cud Chewer if I misunderstood your post at 265. I read it initially as inferring that I was a Liberal supporter. I now see that you may have been referring to a previous post by another blogger.

  30. [I’ve just watched the Abbott interview on the 7.30 Report special edition.

    What a train wreck!]

    Yes, if you compare that incoherent evasive used-car-salesman mess of a performance with Gillard’s polished way of carefully defusing all the questions while answering about half of them anyway it’s not looking very good for Abbott. But how many people pay attention to that stuff who knows.

    [ Abbott is a disaster. He will drag the Liberal primary vote down by 5 points or more over a Turnbull or Hockey once an election is called. I’m talking about 2PP 56 – 44 territory.]

    Amused as I would be if that happened, I’m sceptical that it will. Gillard has her own liabilities and may turn out to be almost as much to the left of mainstream opinion as Abbott is to the right.

    Just for the heck of it, we bring you here the latest and most reliable scientific research. I just did some google searches for “[leader or potential leader X] is unelectable”

    Abbott is unelectable: 68
    Nelson is unelectable: 12
    Turnbull is unelectable: 17
    Hockey is unelectable: 5
    Howard is unelectable: 5 (excluding Michael Howard – most of the John hits came from … Andrew Bolt!)
    Costello is unelectable: 14

    Beazley is unelectable: 7
    Latham is unelectable: 3
    Rudd is unelectable: 6 (two before he was elected, and one saying he isn’t)
    Gillard is unelectable: 10
    Crean is unelectable: 5

    Naturally these have a bias inflating the value for those for whom the question was raised most recently.

    American comparisons (ha!):
    Obama is unelectable: 313 (silly wallies)
    McCain is unelectable: 100
    Clinton is unelectable/Hillary is unelectable: 134/152
    Palin is unelectable: 103

    Britain:
    Brown is unelectable: 41
    Cameron is unelectable: 23

  36. Gusface @332, even accounting for radioactive decay for old leaders (eg no hits for Keating and the only hits for Hewson were actually about Turnbull) I was amazed there weren’t at least 50 hits for Latham. But perhaps that just shows how few people believed it before it became too evidently true to still need saying.

  42. Frank @317, please re-read my comment. I wasn’t suggesting you voted Liberal. I was suggesting your friends have shit for brains. cheers.

  45. No dispersions may be cast upon the wondrous Greg, thank you Gus. He is a magnificent specimen upon whom I ponder very deeply, very often.

  47. MT

    aspersions dear

    tho being a journo,english comprehension must cause you all manner of problems

    🙂

    Oompa loompa is so much easier for your breed, I am led to believe

    😉

  48. May I be so bold as to suggest the whole Rudd/Julia thing is about people wanting to feel they are with “someone like us”.. In other words, most people are pretty damn unintelligent and feel threatened by someone who is intelligent and hasn’t been conditioned to hide it. You see the same thing happening in the office and in social life in general. The nerd always gets it. Sigh. Humans…

  50. imacca @323, notice the journalists clinging to the narrative of the big tough mining bosses and the nasty tax.. starting to look a bit ridiculous at this point.

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