Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
Or as some wit (eye roll) put it: ‘Rudd’ on hands.
I’m not convinced Turnbull appeals to the swinging voter.
He would be my preferred prime minister out of all the liberals, but I’m not going to vote for the current liberals. Most right wing commentators seem to hate him which I guess reflects the grass roots. Turnbull appeals to labor voters only. Maybe this will change in the years ahead. Maybe not.
Although I was convinced the spill was fictional up until it happened so what do I know. Turnbull to challenge tomorrow lol
1598 – You keep missing (avoiding) the point – it is about Turnbull’s lack of judgement. It’s not about Kevin Rudd. Bernie Banton is dead (RIP) but that doesn’t now make Abbott’s comments innocuous.
Trioli will have to curtail her Liberal bias – she’s now editor of Melbourne giveaway and first editorial was wtte we need to talk about Kevin – clearly she wasn’t a fan.
[1571
cupidstunt
turnbull would have to do a gillard on abbott]
Turnbull has little or no support and is unlikely to ever become Liberal leader.
yeah turnbull is just as much a deadwood
[Turnbull has little or no support and is unlikely to ever become Liberal leader.]
He lost by one vote. 😆
liberals are unlikely to turn to turnbull again as he supports a CPRS
I’m not sure the Bernie Banton comment would get much traction nowadays. Libs can focus group test the issue but it doesn’t seem to have done him much harm in his own electorate and I’m not sure people were very focussed on Turnbull first time around because at that time Kevin was still so popular. Also there wasn’t a huge contrast between the two men whereas Turnball is an obvious contrast to Gillard.
In general, swinging voters don’t have a lineal memory of candidates but are very much like goldfish who size up the talent on the day. The politician who does penance and then is ‘redeemed’ by the electorate is legendary – I wouldn’t be writing off a Turnbull reappearance too quickly.
[He lost by one vote. 😆 ]
And that wasn’t including Fran Bailey, Kelly O’Dwyer, Paul Fletcher, and the idiot who wrote “No” instead of a name.
These people would probably all vote for Abbott now, but anything’s possible if coalition polling were to freefall.
i think that was tuckey that voted NO instead of a name
First question I’d be asking Shorten is ‘did you keep your mum-in-law (the GG) in the loop on the plotting to take down a PM and did she think it was pretty ironic that it was you who was one of the plotters’.
Oh Spare Me!
[It’s irony at its best.
The mining companies which helped to topple Kevin Rudd from the country’s top job may very well be lining up to offer him a new position, according to a business expert.]
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/rudd-the-mining-exec-thatd-be-ironic-20100627-zbjy.html
EN
[I’m not sure the Bernie Banton comment would get much traction nowadays. Libs can focus group test the issue but it doesn’t seem to have done him much harm in his own electorate]
Warringah is not really a particularly “median” type seat
Laocoon
I meant the Godwin Grech comment hadn’t done Turnbull much harm in his electorate (messy segue apologies).
EN
Ah gotcha. I am actually in Wentworth; I reckon it did do his credibility in quite a bit (though not enough to lose the seat). It is a relative game I guess and he benefits here by not being Abbott!
[I wouldn’t be writing off a Turnbull reappearance too quickly.]
I’m not. Despite what you might have read into my think I actually believe he’s the best hope they have to avaid annihalation in August.
[I meant the Godwin Grech comment hadn’t done Turnbull much harm in his electorate ]
That hasn’t been tested yet. If Labor think they can win Wentworth I’m sure Utegate will get a run at the local level. If he becomes leader it will get a run in the leader’s debates.
make that
annihilation
An excerpt of a blogger on SMH
The school’s got a new headboy because the kids in the parliamentary playground don’t want to play with Kevin? They think he’s a nerd and a swot and a bossy britches and he doesn’t play footie with them at big lunch? Spare me.
benedict – June 27, 2010, 11:18AM
[An excerpt of a blogger on SMH]
And this is evidence of …?
It’s time
[An excerpt of a blogger on SMH
And this is evidence of …?]
This was not posted as evidence of anything. I should have noted that the blogger articulated how I saw the inner workings of the party.
[And this is evidence of …?]
That idiots are easy to find.
[The school’s got a new headboy because the kids in the parliamentary playground don’t want to play with Kevin?]
Except Kev did not kick enough goals, he dropped the ball and lost his tackling technique. He has been given the opportunity to regain his form in the lower grades.
I hope this isn’t a clone:
[ 7:02PM SENATOR Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff is the LNP’s new federal candidate in the seat of Wright in southeast Queensland. ]
BK
[And this is evidence of …?
That idiots are easy to find.]
Oh thanks!
I read it and thought, gee, that’s how I feel about the whole crap going on about Rudd not forming friendships to secure his leadership.
Oh poo,poo.
No offence meant to you Dee
[He has been given the opportunity to regain his form in the lower grades.]
Or do an Israel Folau, apparently.
[The mining companies which helped to topple Kevin Rudd from the country’s top job may very well be lining up to offer him a new position, according to a business expert.]
[The mining companies which helped to topple Kevin Rudd from the country’s top job may very well be lining up to offer him a new position, according to a business expert.]
Don’t tell Costello. He waited for yonks and nobody called. 🙂
Scott Buchholz to stand for the LNP in Wright.
Poor sod. 🙂
[Scott Buchholz to stand for the LNP in Wright.]
Did I hear that he was Barnaby’s speechwriter?
[1606
ruawake
Turnbull has little or no support and is unlikely to ever become Liberal leader.
He lost by one vote. :lol:]
That was then. If he were to try again, I doubt he would raise more than a handful – and then only from those very rare and endangered species – Liberal moderates. He would get no votes from WA or QLD, maybe 1-2 from SA, a couple from Victoria and possible NSW. His leadership almost split the Liberal Party. They will not go there again, to be sure.
briefly@1631
He may get 1 vote from WA in Judi Moylan – Federal Member for Pearce, as she is a Moderate re Asylum Seekers.
According to this document, Galaxy poll have done two polls since Gillard took over. The result of the second poll is the same except that the Greens and Others primary votes were 12/5 in the second poll, while they were 11/6 in the first.
briefly
When Abbott becomes “political road kill” as he aptly stated, what do the Libs do? Move further to the right?
From the ABC…PM Julia Gillard: that has such a good ring to it!
[Prime Minister Julia Gillard says she wants Australia to have a carbon tax and is prepared to fight for it.
Ms Gillard told the Nine Network this morning she had doubts about the emissions trading scheme because there was no lasting and deep community consensus for it.
“I was concerned that if you were going to do something as big to your economy as put a price on carbon, with the economic transfer that implies … you need a lasting and deep community consensus to do it,” she said.
“I don’t believe we had that last and deep community consensus.”
But Ms Gillard says she will work to get a price on carbon.
“I believe in climate change. I believe it’s caused by human activity and I believe we have an obligation to act,” she said.
“I will be making some statements about some further things we can do to address the challenge of climate change as we work to that lasting and deep community consensus.”
Australians want action
Ms Gillard’s comments come on the back of a survey that shows the Government could gain significant support from swinging voters if it does more to address climate change.
The Climate Institute poll, which surveyed 1,000 people and was also conducted on behalf of several other green groups, found that many Australians are wanting to see concrete plans to deal with climate change.
More than half of those surveyed had lost confidence in Labor’s ability to deal with climate change and over two-thirds had lost confidence in either major party to deal with the issue.
At least 36 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for the Government if it did take action before the election.
The Climate Institute’s head, John Connor, says the Government will be rewarded at the next poll if it acts quickly.
“There’s a very strong net benefit there for the Labor Government, for the Prime Minister, if she comes with a strong plan for pollution and climate change,” he said]
[When Abbott becomes “political road kill” as he aptly stated, what do the Libs do? Move further to the right?]
If the Libs have already soaked up right wing of politics, how would they attract the middle ground by moving further to the right?
[If the Libs have already soaked up right wing of politics, how would they attract the middle ground by moving further to the right?]
They will not that is why Turnbull is not out of thr question.
What are the odds of Kev visiting the GG tomorrow? Odds on in my view.
ruawake@1638
In relation to this ?
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/gillard-set-to-annouce-new-cabinet/story-e6frg12u-1225884915410
[In relation to this ?]
Yep, Kev to get a front bench gig tomorrow. In contrast to Tone’s teament of Turnbull.
Yes Frank, Judi Moylan is a possible vote for Turnbull. Whatever happened to the Fred Chaneys and Ian Viners of the Liberal Party? They batted for the enemy and, in Viner’s case, had a fairly patrician style, but at least they were not troglodytes.
I can remember hearing a speech by Fred Chaney when he had just been elected for the first time. I must have been in my early teens and he addressed our school one morning. He spoke very convincingly about his motives for entering politics – as he saw it, the good that could be done by reforming Governments when they acted for the common interest. He argued that Governments should not only respect the rights of ordinary people, they should consciously seek to expand and support their rights and to redress injustice. Of course, he had his cautious side, and stressed, like any Liberal would, that the rights of property had to be protected too and that Government’s pwers had to be limited.
But he had a lawyer’s understanding that justice lies in protecting the rights of ordinary people. He was young and energetic and on the up. Charles Court would later on see that his run ended in disappointment. Many years later I heard him again speaking about Native Title at a public meeting together with Ronald Wilson and Pat Dodson. He was full of compassion and humour, though sorry that so much remained to be done in indigenous affairs. He was the kind of Liberal it’s good to have around, in my opinion. I wonder where they are now.
PBs Which position if any do you think rudd will get in the new cabinet?
[1634
ruawake
briefly
When Abbott becomes “political road kill” as he aptly stated, what do the Libs do? Move further to the right?]
That would not be easy, ruawake, considering they are on a conservative trail already. I don’t think the Liberal Party will be electable until they show they have a mature and honest approach to the big issues and until they find some new personnel…..
[1642
cupidstunt
PBs Which position if any do you think rudd will get in the new cabinet?]
I don’t know, but I hope they leave Stephen Smith in Foreign Affairs. He has done a very good job there. Rudd, if he is going to have a job, could do Finance perhaps. He is presumably totally across the minutiae of this role.
[I don’t think the Liberal Party will be electable until they show they have a mature and honest approach to the big issues and until they find some new personnel…..]
If they are to succeed they will need much good new centrist blood.
But they are so far to the right (and will be even more so if they lose seats in the next election) they will have difficulty attractiong them.
Well judging from his weekend media appearances, tiny tony has gone and he is back loud angry and in ya face. Exactly the opposite of what he needs to get more voters in his corner.
He is well on the way to panic with the polls turning against him. Time running out, no policies…..
OK, I’ve just had a barrage of Sunday night family phone calls, and each one of them, to a tee, has praised Julia G on her ‘Sustainable population growth’ comments from this morning.
It almost sounded like a veil had lifted for them and a new era was beginning.
I asked them if that thought that meant an immediate cut in immigration was just around the corner, they said they hoped so.
The ABC in Melbourne ran with it as their main story and expanded on it for a full five minutes.
If Julia Gs comments are backed up with real reductions in immigration, even I’d vote for her over Tony.
You’re right BK. There are ongoing issues in the politics, funding and administration of health services, the education system, climate change and the environment, defense and national security, immigration and population, resources and energy, communications, infrastructure…..so many heavy duty portfolios. The Liberals just don’t have the people to take on these on and will have a lot of difficulty attracting new talent onto the Opposition benches.
I know it was a full moon yesterday squiggle, but I think you are pulling the chain with the above comment.
Particularly with the huge immigration levels of the howard era – it barely raised a murmur then.