Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
squiggles easily pleased
How about Rudd for Education Minister. I recall him saying very soon after he was elected wtte that he wanted his legacy to be associated with education and if he’d improved that outlook he’d be a happy man. At the time it was the last area I expected him to be fanatical about.
William, at the end of the document it says:
As the document contains polling results from both the 24th and 25th of June they should be separate polls.
[My Macbook allows me to crank up the font to HUGE sizes with an outward pincer movement. Would this be help her or is her eyesight beyond even this adjustment to computer script?]
sisphyus
Ta for the suggestion but sadly even that wont help now
the problem is
keeping focus-her good eye keeps going in and out of focus- she has had few falls where she misjudged distance size etc
loss of control of diretcion- her good eye will wander of ts own accord
at best she can manage to read one maybe two sentences
BTW she has a foolscap sized magnifying sheet which she use to read large print books- but even now that is a struggle
she admitted that just holding a book is comforting even if she cant read most of the time- i said it allows her to make up her own endings characters etc
[Julia Gs comments are backed up with real reductions in immigration, even I’d vote for her over Tony]
personally i think thats very sad if that the only policy you would change your vote for
there are many more important policies than that one,
any way, I can remember my father saying when i was young ‘they never should go over the 11 million mark. ‘ well thats an old story now
where do you suggest we put the poor and needy australia is part of the world not some area that has to be exclusive.
I find it interesting that Frank comes back on to the thread and pretty well everyone he served up and threatened last night has bolted.
39 comments in two and a half hours. Numerous people tried to gently warn him that he was going so far over the top with the vitriol he was dishing out to good, concerned posters of long standing here.
The one specifically directed to me was particularly offensive to me personally and as well a total “lie”! The world is far,far, broader then a Branch of the WA ALP.
Frank, if you gave just a modicum of thought to it you would see that your comments which were intended to intimidate and belittle others, would be better observed and acted upon, by your good self.
[How can you atteract people to a party when their are elelments in the party like Scorpio who are prepared to trash it from within and threatening to go away and vote for another party up to and including the Liberal Party (which is what Johnny Button said) just cos they didn’t get their way ?
THAT is what I am trying to get through their thick skulls.]
[As the document contains polling results from both the 24th and 25th of June they should be separate polls.]
Yeah, I read that, but I’m not convinced that’s exactly what they mean. Why would they conduct an 800-sample poll to give themselves a pretty meaningless footnote to a PDF that very few will read?
Gusface,
I am sorry that your Mum’s eyesight has deteriorated to that degree.
On the bright side, she has you as a son who obviously keeps her well informed of all the interesting bits that appears on PB.
all the best to you both.
wheres bushfire today?
[1653 Gusface
Posted ]
gus does your mum have one of those red cross buttons you press if you fall and it goes directly to is it 000 or some other area my mother in law had after she fell pushing the wheelie bin that we told her we would be around to put out
broke her wrist.
any way just a thought not chatting tonight early night i think this week has really got to me. Even the man at the flower nursery ask oh how i was because he and i have lots of chats about kev and labor, so people are thinking of people every where at the moment, my daughter rang to see if i felt better the middle one the older one seems to think its all good ,,, single girl the other married one is very down and well says thats life we just do not want abbott, but o well yes that life hope kev turns up to morrow at gg. i wonder how Therese feels about it.
night all say hi to your mum for me gus god bless, there has been some negative remarks today about kev here i suppose we have to expect that but you will never ever hear that from me and gus’s mum
Scorpio
I enjoy your posts and wonder whether Frank is overcompensating and being a bit more aggressive because he’s shellshocked also but trying to make the best of the situation.
O gus does she listen to handicapped radio for the blind i listen to that they read the papers not that she want to hear that but they also read book its on all day here in tas and its Australia wide there is also the hear a book from the library and they have very big print books
night
Just a little food for thought. There are many people who express concern about what happened a couple of days ago and they are critical to your intense desire for them to get on board the Gillard express.
If they are subjected to similar treatment as many here have been, then all the drama, risk and emotional damage might well be in vain.
If Labor’s vote in Queensland doesn’t revive, then Gillard and the people who put her where she is now, will have a lot of questions to answer.
[But while the public is backing the new leadership, there is some disquiet about how Mr Rudd was treated by Labor, which could cause problems for the government at the next election, particularly in his home state of Queensland.
The Galaxy poll shows two-thirds of people thought he was treated harshly, while 58 per cent believe he should have been allowed to lead Labor to the election.
In Queensland, where Labor faces a tough fight in numerous marginal seats, 78 per cent believe he was treated harshly and 71 per cent believe he should have been allowed to lead the party to the election.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/public-will-understand-pm-change-swan-20100627-zbdg.html
Gus
sorry to hear
my say sisyphus
mum does but never uses it she always puts it in a place for safekeeping
😉
I do tell her what people say on PB and she was really cheered that frank said sorry.
I think we all need to adopt the middle ground on this and politley disagree rather than savaging each other
As frank said the Election is the only game in town
squiggle, I think you are going to enjoy the Gillard years….a planned approach to population growth: what a novel idea….as Costello himself observed, demography is destiny. What a good idea that we should try to exercise some influence over our common destiny, so we can develop some coherent strategies for urban development, transport, resource allocation (land, water, power)….heavens, we could apply this approach to medical services, aged care, education and training, even the economy….some long-range planning to provide high-quality services and public assets for the people: what a good idea….
[enjoy your posts and wonder whether Frank is overcompensating and being a bit more aggressive because he’s shellshocked also but trying to make the best of the situation.]
yes i think so, he has a dear heart he taught me lots of things about the computer and how to join face book and tweet but i gave up the face book as our name is very very noticeable. give him time he has great devotion, and i am sure he feels the same about kevin just does not want swinging voters to get negative,
none of us want that, but if people see how much we love and admire some one no matter what thats of course when they are good people then a visitor may say
well those labor people they stick together just like family. i am of no illusions that things go on in the party we would not like at all but the alternative no never.
now is def. night
talking of names did you all notice back at about 2/3 o’clock to today it was said what joe hockey real name is he is an Armenian and he has shortened his name i found that very fascinating our name is so hard to write i have been spelling it for 43 years
i wonder if he changed it by deed poll or just shortened it.
my say
nice words
[Just a little food for thought. There are many people who express concern about what happened a couple of days ago and they are critical to your intense desire for them to get on board the Gillard express.]
who are you saying this to scop
quicky answer need to go
cupid
ta muchly for your thoughts
[disquiet about how Mr Rudd was treated by Labor, which could cause problems for the government at the next election, particularly in his home state of Queensland]
I’m not sure what to make of that, Scorpio. Haven’t there been polls lately showing a drop in Labor support in Queensland? For one thing, Labor is in some trouble with its State government. Also I suspect the ‘Local Boy’ benefit KR brought to Labor in Queensland might have peaked at the 2007 election. Glad to be proven wrong, however!
[talking of names did you all notice back at about 2/3 o’clock to today it was said what joe hockey real name is he is an Armenian and he has shortened his name i found that very fascinating our name is so hard to write i have been spelling it for 43 years
i wonder if he changed it by deed poll or just shortened it.]
I suspect that Joe’s father changed his surname when he immigrated to Australia.
queenlander will be very hurt.
but the msm tried to tell us the vote was very poor there and that is one of the reasons for the decision
[1662
scorpio
Just a little food for thought. There are many people who express concern about what happened a couple of days ago and they are critical to your intense desire for them to get on board the Gillard express.]
scorpio, I think Galaxy’s results should be taken with a pinch of salt. If you asked just about anyone in the country “Do you agree the Mr Rudd was harshly treated?” you would get a very high number of positive replies. The guy was sacked. No second chances. But if you were to dig deeper and ask “Was this the right thing for the country?” “Will this help the Government regain support?” “Will this make you more or less likely to support Labor?”, I think you would also get positive results. It is not easy to construct questions that will yield useful information on these matters.
Squiggle and the Liberal Party have a lot more to concentrate their attention on than Targeting Kevin Rudd and a heap of Labor marginal seats.
They now have to start worrying about their “own” marginals which are now again under threat if the polls keep moving favourably towards Labor as they seem to have been doing over the past three weeks.
[Labor shifts to attack]
[LABOR will target four Liberal-held seats at the federal election – seats it had written off under Kevin Rudd’s leadership.
ALP sources said its strategic focus shifted from defence to attack in NSW after Julia Gillard’s ascension to the prime ministership on Thursday morning.
Fears had been growing in the party’s Sussex Street HQ that Labor was headed for significant electoral damage in western Sydney and the Hunter, in response to the party’s resource tax, botched spending programs and Mr Rudd’s policy backflips.
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Prior to Mr Rudd’s ousting, the party had been planning to focus campaign resources on defending key Labor-held seats such as Lindsay, Parramatta, Macquarie and Bennelong.
It will now increase efforts to snatch a number of seats from the Liberals, including Hughes in southern Sydney, Greenway in the Blacktown area, Paterson in the Hunter, and Macarthur, which spans Campbelltown to Picton, on Sydney’s southern fringe.
Hughes and Macarthur are thought to be particularly vulnerable because of the retirement of two high-profile Liberal members: Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.
Ms Vale, who helped former prime minister John Howard win over a generation of suburban ”battlers”, retained the seat of Hughes in 2007 with 52.2 per cent of the vote on a two-party preferred basis.
A recent redistribution has tightened the race and Labor candidate Brent Thomas, who will go up against Liberal Craig Kelly, needs a swing of just 0.9 per cent to take the seat.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-shifts-to-attack-20100626-zatn.html
the thought would never have crossed my in laws mind but on the other hand there may have been very personal reasons who knows not for us to know
its a small thing really
[I enjoy your posts and wonder whether Frank is overcompensating and being a bit more aggressive because he’s shellshocked also but trying to make the best of the situation.]
Frank’s behaving exactly the same way he always behaves, and always will behave. It just might not seem that way to those who have never been in his firing line before.
It’ll be impossible for the Liberals to go to the next election with Turnbull as leader, and they know it. What’s their position on the ETS going to be under him? “We became climate change denialists when Abbott was leader, but we’ve all changed out minds again”? Every one of them will be asked about their inconsistency, and somebody like Hunt or Hockey is frankly going to look ridiculous.
The other issue is that it’s going to have a twofold effect on their campaign – it’s going to take away their line about the Sussex Street Mafia (in fact anything related to Gillard’s ascendancy), and it’s going to make them look nervous and reactive.
They’re stuck with Abbott, so it’ll be smear and fear all the way to election day. It’s the only thing they’re halfway competent at anyway.
My say,
[who are you saying this to scop]
Frank!
Just a comment on Gillard’s remarks about not being in favour of a “big Australia”. This is great politics, it’s exactly what working-class voters in the outer suburbs want to hear. I don’t think many of the posters on this blog from the left understand how working-class white voters feel about immigration. To these people, “big Australia” is a disturbing concept, it gets interpreted as an Australia with fewer white and more yellow and brown faces. John Howard understood this, and callously exploited this fear to harvest the votes of low-income whites, a demographic that normally would be weak for the Liberals. The Liberals seek to do the same again today. By coming out against “big Australia”, and by tweaking policy on asylum seekers, Gillard can difuse this issue, which one of the precious few Abbott has got to run on.
[ How about Rudd for Education Minister. ]
I can’t help but think having KR on the front bench at this point would be a distraction.
My lazy (i.e. perhaps not well thought out) Sunday evening thought. Although in some ways, I would prefer an ideal of a much lower population, current global conditions could present the Australian society with a very rare opportunity.
With the EU, US, Japan in such dire straits, Australia could be well placed to attract a whole cohort of really talented people, who could really make an exceptional contribution to Australia and constitute a real difference to the advancing the world (perhaps much like the opportunity after WWII, or many other examples in the more distant past)
(And the potential sting: there is little doubt that places like China, India, Brazil etc etc, will also have a relatively greater opportunity set as well)
William Bowe@1676
It’s called telling it as I see it 🙂 – which we Italians are known for doing.
1662
scorpio
[Just a little food for thought. There are many people who express concern about what happened a couple of days ago and they are critical to your intense ]
yes probably a loaded question.
give it time its a while off yet i think october but then who knows may be aug/
but really who would want workchoices and tony, its early days to ask that question the medi so not think with empathy just go in { like a bull at a gate}
now how do you all like that tassie saying, the other is a chip off the old block do yu say that over there its a very logging family saying meaning someone is like their father or mother.
night
the media do not think with empapthy
[Frank’s behaving exactly the same way he always behaves, and always will behave. It just might not seem that way to those who have never been in his firing line before.
It’s called telling it as I see it – which we Italians are known for doing.]
and so do the dutch frank
enjoy your evening Dr who was good tonight for you lot over in wa the stories to me have been a bit off latley.
now thats a nice discussion to leave you with.
PC
I think that is a good point re big australia
i am ambivalent but they way you expressed it, gives cause for concern.
by now making Big australia a small target the associated boats meme get less oxygen
Scorpio 1662
I was down on the Gold Coast today for a big party seeing a number of friends and family both Lib and Labor supporters. Feedback is, unanimous disgust with Rudd’s removal, with nearly everyone saying if we voted him in then it should be up to us to keep him or boot him out. They were all unimpressed with the way it was done. Most were also unaware that members of the ALP were leaking info to MSM.
Feedback on voting intentions. Lib people will still vote Lib even though they are not that keen on Tone. With Labor people, a third will still vote JG, half will not vote JG or Lib, and the rest will wait and see how JG performs over the course of the next few weeks. None of the Labor supporters will vote Tone. They all despise him.
i think people in the populated suburbs of australia are feeling like they are overcrowded now and we would just be overwhelmed by traffic jams, health problems, water availability etc under the doubling of the population.
[With Labor people, a third will still vote JG, half will not vote JG or Lib, and the rest will wait and see how JG performs over the course of the next few weeks. None of the Labor supporters will vote Tone. They all despise him.]
But they have to end up making a choice between ALP or LNP as their second last preference. Perhaps the sooner they realise that the better.
Turnbull most certainly can become opposition leader or Hockey. If Turnbull challenges then they may get Hockey to do so also and Hockey would win that I gather.
However the Liberals must now fancy that they are certainly going to lose (to be confirmed by the next few polls) in which case it doesn’t matter who they chose as leader as they wont be there by the time of the following election. They would not be too afraid of chosing Turnbull knowing they can dump him in the next three years.
If the next few polls show 55/45 or above then I reckon it is a certainty they will manage Turnbull into a challenge, as it will be about saving the furniture, if they believe Turnbull is likely to save more of it. And against Gillard I think Turnbull would do much better than Abbott.
The public have short memories. They may remember some naughty business by Turnbull but the last thing they might remember is how Turnbull was dumped after having done a deal with the Govt on the ETS. I think Tunbull’s stakes would have actually improved because of all that.
So not only do I believe Turnbull can come back I reckon it is a good bet if the polls go too far south.
On the other hand if the polls get to around 54/53 they wont risk it probably, thinking they might by able to shave back a 1% or so.
Cuppa,
[I’m not sure what to make of that, Scorpio. Haven’t there been polls lately showing a drop in Labor support in Queensland? For one thing, Labor is in some trouble with its State government. Also I suspect the ‘Local Boy’ benefit KR brought to Labor in Queensland might have peaked at the 2007 election. Glad to be proven wrong, however!]
Those polls were only of about 4 marginals and very small samples. Not worth two bob IMO. If they had done a poll of all Qld marginals, both Labor and LNP, then I believe a totally different picture emerges.
Yes there has been some damage Federally due to State issues but not extensive.
Funnily enough, Bligh’s problems “all” stem from a concerted attack on her Government by the same culprits who were a major player behind Rudd’s demise.
Factionalism and their influence is not strong outside the greater Brisbane area and therefore Labor supporters tend to be more attuned to Labor values and philosophy/policy, hence the strong personal support for Rudd who didn’t highlight “any” factional allegiance.
Gillard on the other hand is well known to be from the left and just happens to be a Victorian. Hence, there is certainly a touch of parochialism involved also which is understandable. Except to Frank of course. 😉
JohnnyB
[and the rest will wait and see how JG performs over the course of the next few weeks.]
To my mind, a very quick timeframe to make an assessment. Perhaps assisted by the fact that Gillard is not an unknown quantity (and perhaps sample is sort of positively disposed, given that they were the labor group).
If this were a widespread phenomanon, and Gillard performs well in the coming weeks, there could indeed an election sooner rather than later
Has anyone ever had 2 goes as opposition leader?
[ALP sources said its strategic focus shifted from defence to attack in NSW]
It’s good to see them going on the offensive for a change. There’s been too much defensiveness lately, on a number of fronts.
scorpio@1691
Don’t try and lecture to me about Parocialism – WA Labor implored that Kim Beazley was reappointed Leader in 2005 so as to help Gallop get re-elected. And if Mesma, perish the thought was elected Liberal Leader the local media would go into hyper-drive to ssupport a “WA Prime Minister”.
It’s time 1689
I forget to add it was quite a large gathering (over a 100 people).Those Labor people who said they would not vote for Labor or Lib were predominantly people over 40, so I suspect the disloyalty thing bugged them. A lot of them talked about the Greens or any of the local identities who might run as Independents. My feeling is that they would preference Labor ahead of Liberals as none of them had a good word to say about him (even some of the Libs).
AS and RSPT seem to be the most important issues. Anti-AS seems to be the prominet view (even amongst the New Aussies – go figure). Surprising, even amongst the Libs most thought Rudd did a good job on the economy.
[ Has anyone ever had 2 goes as opposition leader? ]
Is that tongue in cheek? Try JWH.
flossyflaps,
[Has anyone ever had 2 goes as opposition leader?]
Howard for one! 😉
flossyflaps went (what a nick!)
[Has anyone ever had 2 goes as opposition leader?]
Beazley and before him Howard, in recent times.