GhostWhoVotes in comments is again first with the poll news: the latest monthly Nielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, is a shocker for the government. The Coalition has opened a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for the Greens. The Herald reports this is Labor’s worst result since just after the September 11 attacks. The sample for the poll is 1400.
UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. The article notes that if preferences were distributed as per the last election rather othan on the basis of and not as indicated by respondents – usually a more reliable method – the two-party result would be 52-48. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago to 41 per cent and his disapproval is up three to 52 per cent – actually better for him than other polls of late – and Tony Abbott approval is down five, also to 41 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 54-38 to 49-39. Only 55 per cent of voters now expect Labor to win the election, down 16 per cent in two months. The government appears to have lost ground in the resource super profits tax, with 41 per cent supporting and 49 per cent opposed comparing with 44 per cent and 47 per cent last month.
Sixty-two per cent, including “more than four in 10” Labor voters, support the Liberals’ promised return of offshore processing of asylum seekers offshore. Interestingly, a “party favoured on asylum seekers” question gets 35 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for Labor and 18 per cent for the Greens. We are also told the Coalition has a remarkable 63-37 lead in Western Australia – which could easily be written off on grounds of a small sample (about 140), if we hadn’t been told something very similar last month.
UPDATE 2: The Australian has published results of a Newspoll survey commissioned by the mining industry targeting nine key seats in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Respondents were only asked, so far as we know, about the resources super profits tax, its likely impact on their vote choice and who they voted for in 2007. I have taken the opportunity to compile all the available data on this subject, of which there is a very great deal, into the table below. Some pollsters only asked respondents if they supported or opposed the tax, while others asked them to specify whether their support or opposition was strong or weak. Variation in wording of the question no doubt explains some of the distinction between pollsters. For example, Morgan asked about “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”, whereas Essential merely spoke of “Higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies”. The numbers shown in brackets are the polls’ sample sizes.
That the Newspoll figures for Queensland are less favourable than Galaxy’s might have something to do with the seats targeted in the former – mining-affected Flynn and Dawson, together with urban Flynn – although the higher undecided result from Newspoll is harder to explain. The 41 per cent strong opposition among Western Australian respondents – from Perth, Brand and Hasluck is a striking figure by any standards. The seats targeted in South Australia were Wakefield, Hindmarsh and Kingston, all located in Adelaide and its outskirts. Among other questions asked of respondents was the effect of the tax on voting intention. Overall 8 per cent said it made them more likely to vote Labor against 31 per cent less likely; from Western Australian respondents, the figures were 6 per cent and 39 per cent.
| SUPPORT | OPPOSE | strong | weak/all | weak/all | strong | |
| Nielsen (1400) | National | Jun 3-6 | 41 | 49 | ||
| Galaxy (800) | Queensland | Jun 2-3 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 32 |
| Newspoll (600) | Qld marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| Newspoll (600) | WA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 41 |
| Newspoll (600) | SA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 21 |
| Morgan (655) | National | May 26-27 | 44 | 48 | ||
| Westpoll (400) | Brand | May 25-26 | 25 | 56 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 19-23 | 12 | 31 | 22 | 14 |
| Morgan (571) | National | May 12-13 | 41 | 52 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 4-9 | 52 | 34 | ||
| Nielsen (1400) | National | May 6-8 | 44 | 47 | ||
| Morgan (669) | National | May 4-5 | 47 | 45 | ||
UPDATE 3: No such calamity for Labor as far as Essential Research is concerned: they have Labor in front 52-48 on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 last week. However, the poll reflects the general trend in having both parties down on the primary vote – Labor two to 37 per cent and the Coalition one to 40 per cent – with the Greens up three to 12 per cent. Also featured are “best leadership team”, with Labor in the clear 47-31, “awareness of asylum seeker intake” (a very even spread across all the available categories), whose mining tax campaign is least unconvincing (the miners’, just), and whether John Howard should be head of the International Cricket Council (50 per cent no opinion, otherwise in Howard’s favour).
Joffaboy@3338
Unfortunately you will have to remain nauseous until I explain, because the facts are that:
1. Labor had a proposed range that just overlapped the greens range.
2. The greens were prepared to negotiate.
2. Labor as originators of that proposal refused to discuss it with the Greens.
3. The reason Labor refused to to discuss their proposal with the greens was that they wished to wedge the Libs.
4. The result in November last year was that 2 Libs crossed the floor without any deal between the govt. and the Greens and the 2 Libs even being attempted -even in the crisis within the Libs over Turnbull.
5. After the change of Lib leadership, Labor was prepared to take up the greens offer to negotiate. The Greens have proven to be flexible as promised, and the governmet behind the scenes seems to have been too – to the extent of adopting the latest Garnaut – much stronger than the CPRS bill last year (the old 25%) , and which will probably be the government’s position soon.
Do you see where and when the goodwill was absent?
Unless your position is that the greens should bloody well have voted for any CPRS bill despite the governments unnecessary intransigence for short-term reasons, that left the greens with nothing? Perhaps the greens could have said to their members last year as they caved in, “We did it for Meg””. And then have no chance of getting the sort of target that is in the wings now? Let alone any membership.
Less nauseous now?
So that’s why Truthy is so quiet.
TTH: “I’m sorry, Mr Abbott, I won’t fail again!”
TA: “I certainly hope so. You know what happens when people fail me…”
TTH: *whimpers*
Poor guy is probably scared out of his mind right now… *evil grin*
TSOP
truthy is mini me
oh the ignominy
😉
No wonder Hopalong Cassidy and La La Trioli savaged the CC:
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-journey-into-lions-den-could-be-a-turning-point-20100610-xxr5.html
Ok so at the moment, Rudd is being accused of being all spin and no substance and yet the the media is reporting that people will vote against the mining tax because the Government hasn’t sold it properly?
Also, people are so angry about Rudd delaying the ETS and the promise for a price on Carbon that they will vote for a bloke who was elected Opposition Leader on the platform of opposing the ETS and overturning his party’s support for the ETS legislation?
Maybe Im missing something
#3351
cool story bro.
Who voted down the CPRS? Labor?
Who is supposed to be for the environment? Climate Change is so important to the greens that they blocked the ETS and it wont be on the agenda for another three years.
But it is all Labors fault. Even when they had a deal with the oppositioon who reneged on it?
Still Labors fault?
I suppose you believe what you like. Goodwill with the Greens – lol. Greens blocked the bill and therefore no cut in emissions until after 2012.
I suppose the politics is more important than their convictions.
Still sick.
What The Papers Say on Delroy the OO has a “Story”, regarding simon Crean’s interview on Perth Radio saying that the Gov’t should’ve consulted with the miners more on the RSPT and suggesting their is a “split in the Govt – and because Crean is in the same Faction as Gliiard that it was designed to stimulate a “Leadership Challenge”
nixon 67@3355
You are missing something. Have a look at Possum’s preference flows analysis. And it has nothing to do with the mining tax. It’s about the ETS and the concept of leadership.
[Also, people are so angry about Rudd delaying the ETS and the promise for a price on Carbon that they will vote for a bloke who was elected Opposition Leader on the platform of opposing the ETS and overturning his party’s support for the ETS legislation?
Maybe Im missing something]
I think the bit you missed is where the govt support is sliding but not to the opposition but to the Greens.
Apparently many people are pissed off with the govt because they didn’t introduce an ETS and are flocking to the Greens, conveniently forgetting that the Greens threw their convictions about Climate Change out the door for the political expediency of voting with the climate change deniers in the coalition.
Interesting hey?
Cuppa,
Thanks for that link. I have a comment to add but I can’t see where to register to log in. Did anyone here the local radio news last night – during Delroy?
The first article reported that 3000 people gave the PM a hostile reception, then they played the voice of the guy who stood up at the Community Cabinet and said wtte, that the CC was a blatant political campaign exercise.
The very next article was a preliminary about how Tony Abbot had pledged to do things differently as a reaction to the complaints by labor backbenches or ministers (can’t remember) that the Rudd Government was being run by a ‘kitchen cabinet of 4. (No reference of their own as to what was claimed to have been said, who had said it, and when.) Then they played almost all of Tony Abbot’s press speech about how it’s unconstitutional to do that and that he won’t be going to do that etc.
Joffaboy@3356
Any factual inaccuracies?
Is the target going to be higher now when the issue is resumed? (Hopefully before the election – and if Rudd wants kudos)
News Ltd have been trying to destroy Julia over the last few months with their relentless negative campaign against the supposed rorts of the BER – do they want her to take over as PM, because they think she’ll be an easier target for Rupert’s man Phoney Tony?
Yeh I accept the Greens getting the slide in Govt vote I just I guess find some of the media reporting kind of funny on both the mining tax and ETS issues.
nixon 67@3363
Yeah, Possum is the best antidote to modern political ‘reporting’.
I just had to chuckle at this post by Boerwar earlier. I suppose he was referring to them being cooked well with a nice sauce and garnished well! 😉
[I assume that there was universal agreement amongst sensible PBs that cats are good in their place, which is inside making people feel happy]-
Evan, if they wanted her to take over as PM because they thought she’d be an easier target for Rupert’s man Phoney Tony, why would they be trying to destroy her with their relentless negative campaign?
Bias works in mysterious ways William.
Grattan has lost it.
[The broad attacks now being made against the PM on the tax and many other issues have a whiff of the Whitlam era.]
[why would they be trying to destroy her with their relentless negative campaign?]
Because, as the scorpion said to the frog, it’s in their nature.
3369
Is it in their nature or in their nurture?
JV, if a 25-40% ETS was put to the senate, Fielding would have left half way through his Heartland Institute trip to come home and vote for it I reckon
Sound Familiar ?
And This:
Delroy’s Issue Of The Day – Equal Pay for Women.
Here is that Daniel Emerson Article on The Rally I mentioned earlier.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/7373703/rally-shouts-down-mining-tax/
As mentiomned on What The Papers Say:
[News Ltd have been trying to destroy Julia over the last few months with their relentless negative campaign against the supposed rorts of the BER – do they want her to take over as PM, because they think she’ll be an easier target for Rupert’s man Phoney Tony?]
Because of a decript bile filled old man whose reflection is most accurately shown in his prise possesin Foxnews manadates that any decent person should be reviled.
Sham A Ham:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/can-the-tax-be-fixed-when-rudd-says-its-not-broken/story-e6frg6zo-1225878151061
jaundiced @3551, How many times does it need explaining that even though there may have been policy overlap between the Greens and Labour on climate change policy, that region of overlap is nevertheless well beyond anything that any Liberal Senator would have crossed the floor over.
Every time this BS is brought up here, the poster refused to deal directly with that fact.
Jill Singer calls for “The conservative with a heart” (Malcolm Turnbull) to take the reins as WTTE Rudds a dud and Tonys a right-wing freakshow.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/howard-fall-is-a-lesson-for-abbott/story-e6frfhqf-1225878123771
The thing about the mining tax is that most people in Australia dont actually care about it. It has no direct impact on my life- I dont know a single miner.
I wonder what the politcal battle would be without this tax to fill the hole.
Question: What would Labor’s “issue of choice” be in the lead up to an election?
Tragedy.
Melbourne Captain James McDonald out with a hamstring injury for the Collingwood clash.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-teams-round-12/story-e6frf9jf-1225877517140
That makes our teams average age for this round about 2.5yo.
“Talking about Therese Rein, why does she insist on using her maiden name?
Is she trying to dodge taxes by keeping a seperate last name from her husband?”
What a low life.
I keep thinking that this person can’t get any lower but he keep surprising me by sinking to new depths. He would have no trouble in walking under a snake with a top hat on.
What is undesirable / illegal in a women using here maiden name and how is it going to contribute to tax avoidance.
Ratstar,
If you find anything out about the tax avodiance thing I would greatly appreciate it as my wife uses her maiden name too.
Not that I pay that much tax with my pittance salary anyway.
Today’s BP fix with Mike Papantonio. In it he reels off a string of questions and tactics to nail the perps. Next weeks Congressional (or is it Senate?) hearing will be a cracker.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×473892
[Which raises the question – not of where the ALP would be with Julia Gillard as leader, but of how very well placed the Liberal Party would be if Malcolm Turnbull were still in charge.
Imagine that: a conservative with a heart – the very thing that Rudd promised but failed to deliver to a nation hungry for change.]
Who is this Jill Singer? She seems to have forgotten that:
1. MT fatally wounded himself with the Grech Email affair
2. If MT is still the LOTO the ETS would have passed and Rudd will still be in stratosphere.
So much for credible analysis. Next!
bluegreen@3381:
[Tragedy.
Melbourne Captain James McDonald out with a hamstring injury for the Collingwood clash.]
Please don’t degrade the English language.
It is a tragedy when a child is killed by a hit-run driver.
Equating that to a sportsman with an injury is… words fail me.
Don,
Words fail me…. At your faux outrage.
Don,
Oscar wilde said “tragedy is when i cut my finger, comedy is when you fall down an open manhole cover and die”.
Perhaps I should speak the Queens English. Would that suit you better? Don’t you know the modern use of the word “tragic”?
Perhaps you don’t associate with the “youth of the day” in your nursing home. We don’t all speak “ye olde” anymore.
I think its good that languages evolve. Isn’t it terrific? (What is your definition of terrific- is it good or is is scary?)
Do you know what is wrong with Australia today? It is that old fogies like Don think they have the right to tell everyone the way the world should be. Go back to your nusring home old man.
[Cuppa,
Thanks for that link. I have a comment to add but I can’t see where to register to log in. ]
Hi IMOHO. Sorry I missed your comment earlier.
Differently to the way Crikey operates, you do not need to register in order to post on The Political Sword blog. Simply fill in the “Name” and “Email” fields at the bottom of any thread page, and write your message. When you press the “Save comment” button your message should go onto the blog immediately. In other words, you do not need to submit comments for approval / moderation. They go live onto the website. Ad Astra (blog owner) stops by frequently to welcome new commenters.
I’m glad you’re interested in contributing to the ABC Watch project. The more evidence of bias and poor behaviour we accumulate the stronger the case that can be made for a change / improvement of the ABC’s performance. Keep at it, thanks!
Don,
I take your point about the melodramatic terms that are used in sporting parlance. However, nitpicking pedantry does not make one appear superior, only trivial.
Maybe she’s hoping Centrelink won’t notice?
Crean caught telling Truthies….
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/cabinet-cracks-emerge-on-mining-tax/story-e6frgczf-1225878175580
[LABOR was forced into damage control yesterday after Trade Minister Simon Crean undermined Kevin Rudd’s handling of the proposed mining tax by explicitly criticising government consultations with resource companies.
In the first public sign of disunity within the Rudd cabinet over the resource super-profits tax, Mr Crean said late on Wednesday the government should have consulted business before announcing its scheme and was now acting to “fix” its error.
Mr Crean’s status as one of Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s closest political allies meant his comments sparked questions over whether he was attempting to destabilise the Prime Minister, after the publication of a series of opinion polls showing he could lose government in the approaching election.
However, several senior ministers denied any suggestion of a leadership change, insisting Mr Crean had acted independently.]
Of course he should have bloody consulted with the mining industry BEFORE iron cladding it in the budget… how bloody stupid is Rudd? Seems Labors idea of consultation is:
1. Announce Policy.
2. Iron Clad it in the budget.
3. Consult with industry
The effective NSW state opposition, that is to say, The Sydney Morning Herald, continues its investigations into Ian MacDonald. (The ABC also has him in its sights regarding the financial collapse of an NSW country abbotoir). Despite what is said to be a popular front in KK, the systemic issus of a government too long in the tooth seem evident:
[IAN MACDONALD’S controversial trip to Dubai was organised by a company owned by the country’s ruler, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, shortly after the disgraced former NSW minister made decisions benefiting the sheikh, who breeds racehorses in the Hunter Valley.
However, key details of the trip – including emails between Mr Macdonald’s staff and the sheikh’s company – are being kept secret by the NSW government.
…
Among emails provided to investigators by Mr Gibson are some ”which appear to indicate” Mr Macdonald’s itinerary was organised through an employee of the Darley organisation, Emma Ridley. ”Darley is a global racehorse-breeding operation belonging to {the sheikh},” the report notes. ”It operates horse-stud interests in the Hunter Valley.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/dubai-connection-exposed-but-keneally-blocks-secrets-20100610-y0mi.html?autostart=1
Why do the Labor supporters keep claiming Turnbull is super rich merchant banker, but Rudd’s a poor “battler” doing it tough on a PM’s wage… when we know for a fact he’s married to one of the richest women in Australia?
It’s a bit of a stretch aint it that “Working Families” Kev, isn’t part of the battler crowd, he’s part of the silver spoons… another Turnbull politician of our times.
Truthless,
You’d rather public policy be made by unelected billionaires, fatcat reactionaries and the boardrooms of rapacious multinationals. Process, my bum, you Liberals want to sacrifice our democracy on the altar of banana republicanism.
[he’s part of the silver spoons]
You don’t know what you’re muttering about.
Gary, Grattan makes me think of Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard. “I’m still big, it’s the newspapers that got small”.
She’s obviously pissed off the govt doesn’t treat her like an empress dowager.
Dennis is at it again…
Nixon67 – You’re not missing anything. The press wants to have it every which way. Since when did logic have anything to do with journalism:
The following is BUSHFIRE BILL’s brilliant analysis of political journalism:
If Labor (and its supporters) fight “reasonable”, they are boring.
If they fight “dirty”, they are “extraordinary” and “panic stricken”.
If they don’t fight at all, they are “gutless”, “dodging a showdown”.
If they succeed, it is immaterial, “only doing their job” etc.
If they fail, or stumble, or even hiccup, they are a “debacle”.
If they consult, they are “backflippers” and “weak”.
If they don’t consult, they are “arrogant” and “think they know everything”.
If they want to change Australia, they are “wrecking the economy”.
If they don’t make any changes, they are “all talk and no action”.
If they want to discuss policy in a serious manner, they are “wonks”.
If they use hyperbole, they are “just as bad as the others”.
May as well be hung for a sheep, as a goat.
cud chewer@3378
Assuming for a moment that you are right – and what you speculate could well have been the outcome – then why on earth did the government bother entering into serious negotiations, finally, with the greens around the Garnaut model in January? The people involved in the Senate hadn’t changed. That rather puts a hole in the hypothesis of those who justify the government’s refusal to negotiate before the November vote down to the slim chances of a govt/greens position.