Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes in comments is again first with the poll news: the latest monthly Nielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, is a shocker for the government. The Coalition has opened a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for the Greens. The Herald reports this is Labor’s worst result since just after the September 11 attacks. The sample for the poll is 1400.

UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. The article notes that if preferences were distributed as per the last election rather othan on the basis of and not as indicated by respondents – usually a more reliable method – the two-party result would be 52-48. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago to 41 per cent and his disapproval is up three to 52 per cent – actually better for him than other polls of late – and Tony Abbott approval is down five, also to 41 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 54-38 to 49-39. Only 55 per cent of voters now expect Labor to win the election, down 16 per cent in two months. The government appears to have lost ground in the resource super profits tax, with 41 per cent supporting and 49 per cent opposed comparing with 44 per cent and 47 per cent last month.

Sixty-two per cent, including “more than four in 10” Labor voters, support the Liberals’ promised return of offshore processing of asylum seekers offshore. Interestingly, a “party favoured on asylum seekers” question gets 35 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for Labor and 18 per cent for the Greens. We are also told the Coalition has a remarkable 63-37 lead in Western Australia – which could easily be written off on grounds of a small sample (about 140), if we hadn’t been told something very similar last month.

UPDATE 2: The Australian has published results of a Newspoll survey commissioned by the mining industry targeting nine key seats in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Respondents were only asked, so far as we know, about the resources super profits tax, its likely impact on their vote choice and who they voted for in 2007. I have taken the opportunity to compile all the available data on this subject, of which there is a very great deal, into the table below. Some pollsters only asked respondents if they supported or opposed the tax, while others asked them to specify whether their support or opposition was strong or weak. Variation in wording of the question no doubt explains some of the distinction between pollsters. For example, Morgan asked about “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”, whereas Essential merely spoke of “Higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies”. The numbers shown in brackets are the polls’ sample sizes.

That the Newspoll figures for Queensland are less favourable than Galaxy’s might have something to do with the seats targeted in the former – mining-affected Flynn and Dawson, together with urban Flynn – although the higher undecided result from Newspoll is harder to explain. The 41 per cent strong opposition among Western Australian respondents – from Perth, Brand and Hasluck is a striking figure by any standards. The seats targeted in South Australia were Wakefield, Hindmarsh and Kingston, all located in Adelaide and its outskirts. Among other questions asked of respondents was the effect of the tax on voting intention. Overall 8 per cent said it made them more likely to vote Labor against 31 per cent less likely; from Western Australian respondents, the figures were 6 per cent and 39 per cent.

strong weak/all weak/all strong
Nielsen (1400) National Jun 3-6 41 49
Galaxy (800) Queensland Jun 2-3 16 21 22 32
Newspoll (600) Qld marginals May 31-Jun 3 17 13 19 30
Newspoll (600) WA marginals May 31-Jun 3 11 10 16 41
Newspoll (600) SA marginals May 31-Jun 3 18 14 18 21
Morgan (655) National May 26-27 44 48
Westpoll (400) Brand May 25-26 25 56
Essential (2000) National May 19-23 12 31 22 14
Morgan (571) National May 12-13 41 52
Essential (2000) National May 4-9 52 34
Nielsen (1400) National May 6-8 44 47
Morgan (669) National May 4-5 47 45

UPDATE 3: No such calamity for Labor as far as Essential Research is concerned: they have Labor in front 52-48 on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 last week. However, the poll reflects the general trend in having both parties down on the primary vote – Labor two to 37 per cent and the Coalition one to 40 per cent – with the Greens up three to 12 per cent. Also featured are “best leadership team”, with Labor in the clear 47-31, “awareness of asylum seeker intake” (a very even spread across all the available categories), whose mining tax campaign is least unconvincing (the miners’, just), and whether John Howard should be head of the International Cricket Council (50 per cent no opinion, otherwise in Howard’s favour).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 thoughts on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

  1. Morning BK

    Thanks for latest instalment…interesting that the AG official did not mention Halliburton; it was up to the interviewee to raise that…conspiracy theory 😉

    Interesting to hear him say the US government had the right to stop BP making a dividend. I amno expert of international law, but that would strike me as a bit tricky given BP is a UK company. However, I wonder if this is indicative that there will be effective bankruptcy/confiscation of BP’s assets in the US…I read some musings of a pre-packaged bankruptcy process yesterday (ie separate out US from non-US BP).

    (The other thing from yesterday that was interesting was why no super-tankers down in the Gulf to collect the oil)

    Stock was down another 7% last night. Still gushing out

    How cheap was that $500k?

  2. [Which side has made the more compelling case in the debate over the resource super-profits tax?

    * The government and Treasury 16.1% (406 votes)
    * Mining companies 83.9% (2115 votes)

    Total votes: 2521]

    Appears the Young Libs were up early this morning ? 😀

  3. [The Prime Minister is hosing down speculation a compromise on the super-profits resource tax is imminent.

    Kevin Rudd said today he thought there was still “weeks and probably months” of consultation with Australia’s big mining companies ahead for the government.

    His comments came after News Ltd business commentator Terry McCrann wrote the government was expected to announce major changes to its resource tax “today or tomorrow”.

    “I think Terry’s pretty wide of the mark on that,” Mr Rudd told Channel Seven.

    “I’ve seen some of the newspapers this morning that say we are on the verge of a deal. The other newspapers are saying there will never be a deal.

    “Reality probably lies somewhere between all that.”

    Mr Rudd said consultation was ongoing.

    “I think we’ve got weeks and probably months of consultation yet with the major mining companies.”]–tax-not-imminent-20100611-y124.html

  4. Cuppa
    Posted Thursday, June 10, 2010 at 8:08 pm | Permalink
    At first I thought my eyes were deceiving me. I blinked, looked again, and … yes, it’s really there! The ABC does its first serious scrutiny of Abbott.

    Unfortunately the site is currently broken (conveniently?) and is not allowing a comments box to open.

    Still, can try again tomorrow.]

  5. [You don’t know what you’re muttering about.]

    So whats his wifes… therefore his own personal wealth worth again?

    $200 Million? $300 Million? $400 Million? Anyone got the lowdown on Ruddies family net worth?

  6. The Kev backflip is all but now certain.

    The only questions remaining is the timing and whether the Labor supporters will admit he stuffed up yet again.

  7. Very interesting that Kloppers surfaced for an interview with Coorey in the SMH today. What are we to make of his “we play the issue and not the man” quote. There are two possibilities:

    1. He’s preparing the ground for a bit of a backdown (in other words, it was all just fun and games – no hard feelings); or
    2. BHP is starting worry about the perception it is interfering in the Australian political process.

    The second possibility is quite interesting because, if true, it puts some pressure on BHP / Rio to stitch up a deal sooner rather than later.

  8. Will some one please direct me to the article re Cuppa and the polital sword

    was there some type of campaign in mind.

  9. klodhoppers and Co would have the latest research from media monitors etc gauging the response to the RSPT

    they were ready to raise the white flag from day one- just a show for the cameras one suspects


  10. The blog, The Political Sword, has an ABC Watch section, which is a repository of information on ABC bias. Blogmaster, Ad Astra writes:

    Your collaboration in keeping track of what OUR ABC is doing may contribute to a change of its policies and improvement in its performance as a national broadcaster.

    I urge you and other concerned Bludgers to submit matters of concern.

  11. Well, Bludgers, off for the long weekend and may the sun it shine every day. Here’s a riddle for you all to contemplate while I’m gone:

    When will a ‘compromise’ become a ‘backflip’?


  12. Gusface – I’ve been wondering if the mining media consultants are monitoring this site for an insight into what “progressive” bloggers (and a few very strange trolls) are saying. Totally wasting their money, of course. But my guess is that they’ve got so much money they’re tracking every fly that moves.

  13. Abbott has been missing in action the last few days. Their abc atypically quiet about him. But I’ve found him! Here is where he is hiding …

  14. Truthy

    You are absolutely right and Crean has pointed out the same thing.

    [how bloody stupid is Rudd? Seems Labors idea of consultation is:
    1. Announce Policy.
    2. Iron Clad it in the budget.
    3. Consult with industry]


    [When will a ‘compromise’ become a ‘backflip’?]

    If the compromise affects the Budget. If it doesn’t affect the Budget bottom line, it won’t be a backflip.

  15. Rosa

    I reckon you might be right


    The mining co’s dont want to start something that they cant finish

    [We the people,United,will never be divided]

    And the mining co’s know that

  16. In May 2008 BRW estimated her wealth at more than $60 million.
    It occurs to me that perhaps you often think things are bigger than they in fact are and that it most probably takes someone else to point it out….I won’t snigger though.
    In any case I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.

  17. [You called him “part of the silver spooners”. I repeat, you don’t know what you’re muttering about.]

    Whats the Ruddies family worth? Give me a rough guesstimate in your view.

    He’s definately a silver spooner.

  18. Boerwar@3418

    Well, Bludgers, off for the long weekend and may the sun it shine every day. Here’s a riddle for you all to contemplate while I’m gone:

    When will a ‘compromise’ become a ‘backflip’?


    Unfortunately for Rudd it doesn’t matter in the current circumstances how many pikes and twists he puts into his routine, any compromise on the tax will be seen as a backflip. Henry has said the tax cannot work if fiddled with. If Rudd caves on this he will be in serious credibility territory, back from which he may not emerge.

    The only way he can come out of the current argy-bargy with honour is to stand firm and win the issue. If his advisers are the same Rhodes Scholars who told him to dump the ETS then I doubt he will.

    And avagoodweekend.

  19. [You called him “part of the silver spooners”. I repeat, you don’t know what you’re muttering about.]

    [Whats the Ruddies family worth? Give me a rough guesstimate in your view.

    He’s definately a silver spooner.]

    What they are “worth” is none of your business or mine.

    You think a “silver spooner” simply means rich person.

    Self-made rich people (for example, the Rudds) are not “silver spooners”.

    Silver spooners are BORN rich. With a silver spoon in their mouths, as the saying goes.

    Kevin Rudd and his wife were not born rich. They had to mortgage their family home to finance her fledgling employment-services business.

    Hence they are not “silver spooners” … but you on the other hand ARE an envious ignoramus.

  20. Jon@3426

    If you backflip, do you not end up facing the same direction? As an expression it makes no sense.

    Flip-flop; U-turn; about-face; capitulation; retreat; rethink; policy adjustment; clearing of the decks; cave in; conversion on the road to Damascus. Take your pick, if Rudd caves on the tax we’ll hear them all many times.

  21. Skybusiness again today a repeat of yesterday, all anti Rudd, he’ll be a one term wonder, won’t consult, unable to relate to the people etc. They are pushing miners argument, now they are bagging Ken Henry as crossing the line and campaigning for the govt! are saying will Henry have to go before the next election! WTF!!!
    Rudd doesn’t know what is happening the real world, is just a bureaucrat etc
    They even slipped up and said “the Coalition Government” talk about counting your chickens
    (hey that might be what Barnaby’s up to? Learning to get his numbers right)

  22. [WTF!!!]

    Amigo, you ferality (??) or feralness is getting worse and worse. we have to something about that soon. A snip or two from Bilbo might do the trick :kiss:

  23. Truthy: enough of the Terese Rein bashing, why not give her some credit for being a successful businesswoman and doing something worthwhile to help the unemployed?
    I guess you prefer Prime Ministerial spouses to be North Shore matrons like Janette Howard.

  24. Cuppa,
    Thanks for help with ABC bias watch on Political Sword.

    Your last, extremely patient, clarification for Toothy has reminded me of so many conversations I have had recently with people who throw “politics of envy” and “temper tantrums” and “he’s only motivated by anger”, as a dismissal of anything I try to explain.

    So much of what the MSM rails about is on the basis of these ‘givens’ – as if we all agree with their basic premise, and usually the ABC just follows it up without even attempting to analyse the underlying paradigm.

    I simply cannot fathom why envy is something to be derided and discounted as not worthy of any consideration or debate. ‘Haves’ and ‘have-nots’ are the fundamental motivation for more even distribution of rights and opportunities, so why do so many of us allow it to be verbalised without question?

    And it would seem to me that to have a Prime Minister who is driven (whether or not it is true) by anger born of injustice and indignity is to be applauded.

    What do you think? (Apologies if this has already been discussed and I have missed it)

  25. [Shanahan is suffering from premature backflip.]

    Rosa, we tend to get excited very quickly, so we do it all the time 😉

  26. Truthy: their wealth (ie, Terese’s) is somewhere in the range of $40-50 million

    Turnbull’s worth is somewhere in the range of $150-200 million

    Barack Obama’s wealth is somewhere in the hundreds of millions of $US

    None of those people are silver spooners, though. All self-made millionaires from fairly modest backgrounds.

  27. Skybusiness again today a repeat of yesterday, all anti Rudd, he’ll be a one term wonder, won’t consult, unable to relate to the people etc.

    Yes, and even the retailers (or some of them) – whom Rudd bailed out with his Stimulus money (the ungrateful sods) – are putting in the boot.

    Rudd couldn’t sell a fridge let alone a mining tax, fumes Gerry Harvey
    Mr Davis described the failed roof insulation scheme, which cost four lives and $2.45 billion, as an “absolute shemozzle”. And of the resource super profits tax stink, Mr Luscombe said: “I think the great learning from this is about engagement. In the past when major change has happened and engagement has been done up-front, it’s happened more smoothly than it’s happening at the moment.

    “We should learn from this as a country.”

    Mr Luscombe said that until a couple of weeks ago it was clear which side would win the next federal election. “That’s less certain now,” he said.

    Related Coverage

    * Retail hit by shoppers’ jitters The Australian, 9 hours ago
    * Rudd Govt bloody amateurs – Gerry Harvey Daily Telegraph, 14 hours ago
    * You’re all whingers, says Harvey Herald Sun, 16 hours ago
    * Wesfarmers CEO on a winning streak The Australian, 13 Apr 2010
    * Slower growth hits Woolies shares Daily Telegraph, 27 Jan 2010

    Insulation is no longer “botched” or “a debacle”. It’s now (apparently) “a failure”. 1,000,000 homes insulated, with a tiny percentage of problem sites and couple of poor kids killed (but at a much lower rate than previously) and not one householder got any benefit, I guess.

    Funny though, no mention of the Stimulus saving their sorry arses.

    Socialize the losses. Capitalize the profits.

  28. Amigo, you ferality (??) or feralness is getting worse and worse.

    Finns I blame it on the bad blood they gave me when I was in Hospital, who knows who it came from!

  29. [Grattan makes me think of Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard. “I’m still big, it’s the newspapers that got small”.]

    Rosa – poifect description! so tragic.

  30. It is a woman’s free choice whether she wants to be surnamed after her father’s father, or her husband’s father. Either way, she’s named after a man. Its called patrilineal naming. At least women aren’t their husband’s property any more.


    Mad Dog

  31. BB
    They said on Skybuisness that Harvey had backed away from his criticism of Rudd and showed him outside the retailers meeting being a smart ass and jokingly saying wtte OK everything I said inside was wrong.

  32. I notice Hurts is into the prediction business. If that is anything like his other posts then we won’t see compromise to this mining tax in the next decade.

  33. [Finns I blame it on the bad blood they gave me when I was in Hospital, who knows who it came from!]

    Vera, was it blue?

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