The Advertiser has published a poll of 571 respondents from the South Australian state seat of Chaffey, held by the state’s sole Nationals MP Karlene Maywald. It finds an effective dead heat in two-party terms between Maywald and Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone, with the former on 50.5 per cent. Primary vote figures after distribution of the undecided are 40 per cent for Whetstone, 30 per cent for Maywald, 14 per cent for Labor, 11 per cent for Family First and 3 per cent for the Greens. The result at the election was 53.2 per cent for Maywald and 28.2 per cent for the Liberal candidate, resulting in a 17.2 per cent Nationals-versus-Liberals margin after preferences. The margin of error on the poll is around 4 per cent. The paper appears not to have repeated the mistake of its poll of the electorate in August 2008, when it merely asked respondents which party they would vote for without naming Maywald as an option. When asked who Maywald should support in the event of a minority government, 53 per cent said Liberal and 33 per cent Labor. Maywald has served as a minister in Mike Rann’s government since 2004, currently in the water security and River Murray portfolios. She has nonetheless maintained she would support a “conservative” government in office.
Please feel free to use this thread for general discussion of the South Australian election.
[And as the above shows, Mary-Lou contested it in 2006. So her personal vote was there then too.]
Bob, Mary-Lou contested in 2006, but she was a nobody then (other than being a little-remembered former premier’s daughter). In November 2006 she was elected Mayor of Victor Harbor, which is the position she currently holds. So she is much better known and much better liked now.
Seriously, she is extremely popular here, you can have no idea. The local media gushes all over her. And the liberal MP Pengilly is an absolute dud. Labor is running a big campaign too. I’ve had heaps of Labor stuff in my letterbox and nothing from the liberals. Mary-Lou’s posters outnumber Pengilly’s too.
I think she’ll get a big increase in Labor’s vote. I’m not saying she’ll win but Finniss is definitely one to watch.
Certainly Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates for all seats are posted on the party websites. Haven’t looked at the others but Family First would be a good bet too.
[Bob, Mary-Lou contested in 2006, but she was a nobody then (other than being a little-remembered former premier’s daughter). In November 2006 she was elected Mayor of Victor Harbor, which is the position she currently holds. So she is much better known and much better liked now.
Seriously, she is extremely popular here, you can have no idea. The local media gushes all over her. And the liberal MP Pengilly is an absolute dud. Labor is running a big campaign too. I’ve had heaps of Labor stuff in my letterbox and nothing from the liberals. Mary-Lou’s posters outnumber Pengilly’s too.
I think she’ll get a big increase in Labor’s vote. I’m not saying she’ll win but Finniss is definitely one to watch.]
Is her personal vote greater than the 2006 Rannslide effect?
I highly doubt it.
She’s gonna have to compete for those 9% who 2PP switched from Liberal to Labor at the last election as it is, let alone another 6% (5% after redistrib).
I thought the Tiser was going to run a series of polls from crucial booths like the Chaffey one. Didn’t they say they were going to do five or so?
Better read tomorrow’s Advertiser Diogs … or better still log on to pollbludger !
Did they say they were having a poll? I’ve been busy all day.
[Is her personal vote greater than the 2006 Rannslide effect?]
We’ll have to wait and see. Things are all a bit cloudy because 2006 was an election without a sitting member (Dean Brown had just retired) and there was a big to do about the liberals’ preselection and the Nationals ran a high profile candidate in the form of Alexandrina mayor Kym McHugh.
So it is difficult to see how things will fall out in the changed environment this time. But what I will guarantee you is that regardless of what happens with everyone else and in the rest of the state, Mary-Lou Corcoran will receive more first preference votes this time than she did in 2006. People here worship her as a God. It’s sickening. She’s just “Mary-Lou” – like Cher or Beyonce.
It’s a high-powered election. Friend of mine in Morialta has had only one piece of campaign ‘literature’ so far – a pamphlet from Vini Ciccarello!
[Mary-Lou Corcoran will receive more first preference votes this time than she did in 2006.]
It’s easily possible that the Nat vote will sink, of which a fair chunk i’m sure came from Labor, which could easily go back to Labor.
What counts is the 2PP vote. Let’s see what happens in Finniss. If she gets a 2PP swing toward Labor, i’ll be highly surprised.
I was just phone polled! I don’t know who it was for though, not Newspoll, it could’ve been The Advertiser or maybe it was party polling (I am in Newland, a seat on a 5.2% margin). Here are questions they asked that I can remember:
Do you think S.A. is heading in the right direction or wrong direction?
Which party did you vote for at the 2006 election?
Who do you intend to vote for at the 2010 election?
Which party do you normally support at State and Federal elections?
What chance is there that you will change your vote before election day?
Do you think Isobel Redmond is doing a good job as opposition leader?
Do you think Mike Rann is doing a good job as Premier?
Who do you think would be the better Premier, Mike Rann or Isobel Redmond?
Have you seen any television advertisements for the Liberal / Labor Party?
Have the TV advertisements made you more or less likely to support the Labor / Liberal party?
Have any other events of the last week made your more likely to support Labor / Liberal?
What do you consider to be the most important issue in the election campaign?
What is your total household income before tax?
Do you consider yourself under financial pressure?
Have you completed a university degree?
Oh, I was also asked if I am enrolled to vote and my age.
Sounds more like a party poll.
What happens if you ask them who they are polling for?
[What happens if you ask them who they are polling for?]
They say they are just a polling firm and are not allowed to disclose their clients.
[Do you think Isobel Redmond is doing a good job as opposition leader?
Do you think Mike Rann is doing a good job as Premier?]
There’s too many questions IMHO for anything but party polling.
If one can figure out whether they’re using reverse psychology here, you can figure out which party has commissioned this polling 😛
Also, I bet you gave all the answers quickly and upfront. Internal party polling takes more seriously those that hesitate before giving their answers 😛
The curious question for me was this one:
[Have any other events of the last week made your more likely to support Labor / Liberal?]
Were they trying to measure any damage from the dual freeway debacle, when Labor trumped the Liberals?
Or was it Labor polling worried that the insulation issue at the federal level was impacting on their state polling?
Anyway, I answered “no” to that question.
I just spoke to my mum who said Ch7 News was talking about a poll saying Rann was losing votes amongst women who were unhappy about Chanto.
Did anyone see it?
[ I just spoke to my mum who said Ch7 News was talking about a poll saying Rann was losing votes amongst women who were unhappy about Chanto. ]
Wouldn’t need to be a rocket scientist to predict that.
I think it is stupid to say that an increase in female vote for the Liberals would automatically be related to the Chantelois issue. It’s quite possible that some female voters will vote Liberal simply because they want a female Premier.
The voice of reason speaketh.
SO
I didn’t see the segment but mum said the poll specifically asked about Chanto and they said women were unimpressed and were saying it was the reason they changed their vote. Men didn’t.
But as I said, I didn’t see it so I don’t know what they actually said.
It’s certainly not surprising that channel 7 might have run such a poll – after all they will be seeking a bit of revenge after having to stump up for an out-of-court settlement. These sorts of questions are akin to push-polling. Fortunately they aren’t on the ballot papers on election day.
There are about as many fetus photoes hanging on stobie poles as there are proper corflutes. The Guy Sabastians have too much money!
The fetus corflutes seem to be the fav target for vandals.
THM
Guy Sebastian’s lot would be FF wouldn’t they, not AbortSA (I really hate that name). I realise the AbortSA wingnut used to be FF but I assume they turfed him or he thought they weren’t extremist enough.
[I realise the AbortSA wingnut used to be FF but I assume they turfed him or he thought they weren’t extremist enough.]
It’s quite possible that the AbortSA guy is front grouping for Family First. No doubt that is exactly where his LC preferences are headed. Think about it, he can go out and say outrageous things while Family First come of sounding all moderate.
On 9 News a few days ago he refused to say who had donated any money to his campaign in order to print all his propaganda materials.
Is AbortSA a part which recommends aborting SA? Do Victorians get to vote on this?
Psephos
The name just doesn’t fit with an anti-abortion platform.
It does raise an interesting issue though. Given that 66% of Catholics vote Labor (or close), and Labor supports, provides and pays for 75,000 per year, there must be a lot of conflicted Catholics on the issue (and obviously other anti-abortion non-Catholics but they are the most obvious group).
Is abortion not very important to most Catholics or is it something else?
[I just spoke to my mum who said Ch7 News ]
So how is Daphne?
[and Labor supports, provides and pays for 75,000 per year, there must be a lot of conflicted Catholics on the issue]
Catholics are really good at only following Catholic doctrines when it suits them.
SO
I always preferred Velma.
[ I think it is stupid to say that an increase in female vote for the Liberals would automatically be related to the Chantelois issue. It’s quite possible that some female voters will vote Liberal simply because they want a female Premier.
]
Lots of reasons why female voters might switch sides. However, looking at it analytically, the Chantos affair must be a cause of a net loss of votes to Rann.
1. The only issue remaining is did Rann have a sexual relationship with her. He has denied that.
2. Whatever the truth of the assertion that he did,people will assess the assertion on the evidence available to them.
3. Those who assess there wasn’t (and therefore that Chantos was lying) are unlikely to change their vote based on the issue. There is no reason to award Rann for not having a sexual relationship and telling the truth about it.
4. Of those who assess there was, and that Rann therefore lied about it, some will not care less. Others will be concerned. Of those concerned some will not change their vote from last time. Some will. There are 2 issues they will rely on, dishonesty and trashing a woman’s reputation.
Net result – some who voted for Rann last time will change their vote because of this issue. As to the quantum of the change……..who knows.
The bottom line is Rann gains no votes out of it from women – but loses some. A net loss.
[Net result – some who voted for Rann last time will change their vote because of this issue.]
Um, but isn’t it possible that some males will switch from Liberal to Labor if they think the Premier picks up attractive (yet crazy) blondes in his spare time?
[ Um, but isn’t it possible that some males will switch from Liberal to Labor if they think the Premier picks up attractive (yet crazy) blondes in his spare time?
]
The original quote related to a loss of the female vote and it was to the female vote – I was referring to.
As to the male vote…I must say I don’t profess to have a great knowledge of the way heterosexual men think (not being one myself). I am not sure heterosexuals droll over other men who are studs and pick up the chicks, and therefore admire such men. If anything, I think perhaps they might be envious – but i can’t see them rewarding other blokes for being chick magnets. Might be a bit of a status symbol down the pub…but the pub drinkers are unlikely to elect such person President of the Punters Club just because of that.
Shows
the warnie factor?
Precisely, Gus.
[It’s quite possible that the AbortSA guy is front grouping for Family First. No doubt that is exactly where his LC preferences are headed. Think about it, he can go out and say outrageous things while Family First come of sounding all moderate.]
^ Yep, this.
On that note, I wonder if the Secular Party will be running any LC candidates in this election?
#484
I assume this is a reference to the Shane Warne Factor. I have no idea what it is.
Cricket is a game played by 11 men on one team and 11 men on another team. They hug and kiss each other at appropriate times. Sounds very gay to me.
Got no idea what this is all about, but obviously the locals would know. I see my dear friend Michael Atkinson MP is involved.
[ The state Ombudsman this month launched an investigation into the council’s approval of the deal after upper house independent MP David Winderlich alleged some councillors were offered inducements to support it.
Mr Winderlich told parliament he believed Attorney-General Michael Atkinson had offered one councillor his support for a Labor preselection and another the chairmanship of a committee with a $3000 stipend attached. Mr Atkinson has denied the claims.
St Clair Reserve Ratepayers Association spokeswoman Kirsten Alexander, who is Mr Winderlich’s election running mate, said true separation between local and state governments was needed.
“The land swap is totally unnecessary,” she claimed.
]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/alp-man-urges-end-to-rann-cronyism/story-e6frgczx-1225834509794
An OUTraged friend emailed me this the other day. You know it’s election time when the politicians start sending out letters like this.
Dear …..
As a resident of West Beach, you would no doubt be gravely concerned about the constant stream of lewd activity taking place in Apex Park. As your local member, I share these concerns.
Apex Park is a playground for you and your children to enjoy wildlife and the peaceful, open space. Unfortunately, the actions of a few men have resulted in your park also becoming a “beat” – a meeting ground for homosexual activity.
The men who loiter at this notorious Burbridge Road haunt have no respect for you and your family. ln fact, they often engage publicly in their acts. Much to my disgust, the park has been littered with used condoms, lubricants and soiled tissues.
I can assure you that I am doing my absolute best for you and Apex Park. After all, West Beach is one of Adelaide’s premier seaside locations. I have been working with the Superintendent in Charge of the Sturt Local Service Area to combat this vile behaviour. So far, the actions undertaken include:
The local Superintendent has assured me that the City of West Torrens will trim trees and bushes and investigate increased lighting in the area. Council workers who observe men acting suspiciously are to report the matter to police.
SA Police will increase its presence at the car park both during the day and at night and check the particulars of anyone sitting in vehicles.
SA Police will also be contacting local gay media outlets and advising that there will be an increase in police presence in the area.
SA Police has been liaising with Neighbourhood Watch members – Now you too can help Apex Park.
lf you witness disturbing activity at the park, or if you see drivers cruising suspiciously in the area, I ask that you take down the number plate and description of the vehicle in order to fill in the enclosed form.
Please do not approach these individuals or their vehicles. I am more than willing to act
on your behalf, and pass on this information to the local Superintendent, so you can
remain anonymous.
With your help, I would like Apex Park to be used solely for its intended purpose – a
quiet, neighbourhood friendly space for you and the rest of the community to enjoy.
Yours sincerely,
Tom Koutsantonis
MP JP
Member for west Torrens
Yikes. FF preferences, here he comes.
Are there any gay MP’s in the SA Labor party? (And what’s SA Labor’s policy towards homosexuality – support, oppose, neutral?) I can’t imagine my local (Labor) MP saying this sort of rubbish about the local gay beat. For starters, he’s gay himself…
Labor MLC Ian Hunter is openly gay and has made numerous speeches on gay marriage and rights for same-sex partners both in and out of parliament.
Living in Colton and being openly gay myself I don’t have much time for these gay beats either – they do tend to give gay men a bad name. I find their whole concept quite anachronistic.
[lf you witness disturbing activity at the park, or if you see drivers cruising suspiciously in the area, I ask that you take down the number plate and description of the vehicle in order to fill in the enclosed form.]
He’s got to be kidding. Even Howard wasn’t that despicable. So now the public are recording license plate numbers if you drive slowly past a park.
That has to be the hypocritical thing I’ve ever heard given the outrage from Labor when something similar happened (innocently I am led to believe) to one of their senior MPs.
This guy says what a lot of South Aussies are thinking. Although Rann cronyism would just eventually be replaced by Lib cronyism but it would take a while to happen.
[A LIFELONG ALP member and local councillor has called for a Liberal government in South Australia to clean out the cronyism allegedly flourishing under the Rann government.
In comments that could have him expelled from the party, retired electrical engineer Robert Grant, 64, claimed Rann Labor was too cosy with big business and had deserted working people.
“Sometimes you have to stand up for what’s right, and sometimes the Labor Party gets things wrong,” Mr Grant alleged yesterday.
“They (the Rann government) are just in bed with business people . . . the working class and their children will get a better deal from a Liberal conservative government.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/alp-man-urges-end-to-rann-cronyism/story-e6frgczx-1225834509794
“lf you witness disturbing activity at the park, or if you see drivers cruising suspiciously in the area, I ask that you take down the number plate and description of the vehicle in order to fill in the enclosed form.”
I agree with the general theme of the letter but that paragraph is over the top.
[This guy says what a lot of South Aussies are thinking. Although Rann cronyism would just eventually be replaced by Lib cronyism but it would take a while to happen.]
The Libs will go straight back to their Brown/Olsen/Kerin ways/days if/when they regain government.
As for the theory that Labor needs to lose to get their ranks cleaned out, I was thinking about this last night. Bottom line – it’s too late. Labor Right created and consolidated their stranglehold on the parliamentary party when Labor was left with 10 of 47 seats after the 1993 election. They are too strong to be broken now. Even if they were left with as little as 10 seats again (impossible), there’s no bunch of lefties holding safe seats. They’re held by the right. If Labor lost, they’d go in to opposition, and not much within the party would change.
It’s too late.
The only thing that will make either the state or federal party a bit less regressive/more progressive is when we get another 60s/70s era upon us. Some say we’re overdue for it. Personally I don’t agree.
[Living in Colton and being openly gay myself I don’t have much time for these gay beats either – they do tend to give gay men a bad name. I find their whole concept quite anachronistic.]
This is not at all an endorsement of beats, but do you understand the history behind beats and the LGBT movement generally? I ask this to you as a gay man myself.
[As a resident of West Beach, you would no doubt be gravely concerned about the constant stream of lewd activity taking place in Apex Park. As your local member, I share these concerns.
Apex Park is a playground for you and your children to enjoy wildlife and the peaceful, open space. Unfortunately, the actions of a few men have resulted in your park also becoming a “beat” – a meeting ground for homosexual activity.]
Who is stupid enough to take their kids to a park/playground at night anyway?
[ “lf you witness disturbing activity at the park, or if you see drivers cruising suspiciously in the area, I ask that you take down the number plate and description of the vehicle in order to fill in the enclosed form.”
I agree with the general theme of the letter but that paragraph is over the top. ]
That’s the worst paragraph, but the whole thing’s pretty nasty – homophobia crossed with SA-style authoritarianism (and arrogance, assuming everyone agrees with him in the very first sentence). Somebody in SA oughta start a Facebook group featuring it… yeah, it’s a bit naff, but it’s a good way of spreading the word on small issues like this. Embarrass the MP. He won’t lose his seat, but might just get a thumb in the eye over it.
Of course I know the history bob – but its now 2010. They’re not helping the cause.
#489
Thanks for that letter.
I will refer it to the local gay press in Sydney (I am sure they will already have it but anyway).
That eejit Tom Koutsantonis. MP JP, Member for west Torrens – may help his own re-election chances but unwittingly damaged the Labor label right across Australia – amongst a community that has traditionally been a significant supporter of Labor.
Apologists for Labor who personally don’t like beats and find them disgusting – miss the point. This is a blatant homophobic attack intended to whistle up the rednecks and homophobes.