Advertiser: 50.5-49.5 to Maywald in Chaffey

The Advertiser has published a poll of 571 respondents from the South Australian state seat of Chaffey, held by the state’s sole Nationals MP Karlene Maywald. It finds an effective dead heat in two-party terms between Maywald and Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone, with the former on 50.5 per cent. Primary vote figures after distribution of the undecided are 40 per cent for Whetstone, 30 per cent for Maywald, 14 per cent for Labor, 11 per cent for Family First and 3 per cent for the Greens. The result at the election was 53.2 per cent for Maywald and 28.2 per cent for the Liberal candidate, resulting in a 17.2 per cent Nationals-versus-Liberals margin after preferences. The margin of error on the poll is around 4 per cent. The paper appears not to have repeated the mistake of its poll of the electorate in August 2008, when it merely asked respondents which party they would vote for without naming Maywald as an option. When asked who Maywald should support in the event of a minority government, 53 per cent said Liberal and 33 per cent Labor. Maywald has served as a minister in Mike Rann’s government since 2004, currently in the water security and River Murray portfolios. She has nonetheless maintained she would support a “conservative” government in office.

Please feel free to use this thread for general discussion of the South Australian election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

619 comments on “Advertiser: 50.5-49.5 to Maywald in Chaffey”

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  1. #499
    [ They’re not helping the cause ]

    NO they are NOT helping the cause.

    They are providing an excuse for apparently homophobic Labor MP’s to use the issue at election time for their own political ends AND in the process whistle up the rednecks – with the possible consequence of more gay hate related crimes being committed by rednecls who were needing a legitimate reason (now provided by a Labor Party member with the increased authority of being an MP) for their vile acts.

  2. [ Do you happen to live anywhere near West Beach Peter?
    ]

    I live in Sydney. Does that alter anything I say. Geez, if their was genuine concern about this issue it could have been solved easily. It did not need the most inappropriate way of handling the situation – a letter to all residents to dob in a beat user – alerting the rednecks to a place where they might go to bash a poof.

    Geez – have you no knowledge of all the work done in other states by the gay community with the police to close down beats and the methodology used.

    Think about it dude – this has to be absolute worst way of going about it. Did this eejit take any advice from knowledgeable people writing this vile letter ?

    Clearly not, because it would not have been advice he would have received from any gay group or any police officer familiar with gay issues.

    It is just an opportunistic letter at election time for crass political purposes.

  3. [Of course I know the history bob – but its now 2010. They’re not helping the cause.]

    SWIM has been to Veale literally once, years ago, but it wasn’t for SWIM. But each to their own. Kids shouldn’t be in parks at night, and gay men don’t go to beats to look for kids, they are not bogey men, despite what people like Tom Koutz would like people to think.

  4. Skysie

    Do you know the demographics of beat users ?

    Perhaps this might give you some idea. A very high percentage are:

    Married men (often with children) who have not come to terms with their sexuality or are bi-sexual. They are not prepared to disclose their sexual preference for various reasons – that is are not out. Thus, they are unable to visit established gay meeting places for meeting other men. They do not identify strongly with the gay community. They may be in a stage of transition – of coming to terms with their sexualty.

    They should not be the objects of hate. See my comments above relating to the appropriate ways and totally inappropriate ways to close down beats.

  5. I’m interested in gaining equal marriage rights for gay partners (amongst other things). Gay men who frequent beats do nothing to further this cause. It just gives the rednecks something to demonise gay men with. In an ideal world I agree that gay men should be able to go into parks at night and frolic if they want to – but it just regresses the cause for gay rights. Its politically foolish to think otherwise.

  6. [I’m interested in gaining equal marriage rights for gay partners (amongst other things). Gay men who frequent beats do nothing to further this cause.]

    What does one have to do with the other?

    [It just gives the rednecks something to demonise gay men with.]

    Tom Koutz letter does, yes. Like rednecks need anything else.

    [In an ideal world I agree that gay men should be able to go into parks at night and frolic if they want to – but it just regresses the cause for gay rights. Its politically foolish to think otherwise.]

    And there’s the toe-the-line Labor Right inside of you.

  7. There’s nothing labor right about me. Men cavorting in a park at night helps convince the general public there is something “weird” about gay men – that’s the reality. Therefore, its hardly a quantum leap to say that their behaviour damages the cause for furthering gay rights.

  8. [ There’s nothing labor right about me. Men cavorting in a park at night helps convince the general public there is something “weird” about gay men – that’s the reality. ]

    I suspect the people who have seen men cavorting in parks at night – are perverts who go there for that purpose.

  9. Skysie

    In your campaign for gay marriage I assume you have spoken in favour of the concept at Labor Party conferences, but in accordance with the traditions of a good political party, abide by the convention not to speak out publicly against Rudd’s failure to support it and not to publicly support the Greens for their stance taken in the Senate on the issue.

  10. Anyway – this is really getting away from the issue.

    Whether you like or dislike beats, think beat users are sad people or not, support gay marriage or not :- the real issue is:-

    Was the letter targetted by the MP at constituents in the West Beach area an appropriate way of addressing apparent concerns about people using the area as a beat .

    Included are these questions –
    1. Were there more appropriate ways of addressing the concerns?
    2. Does the letter have the potential to create actual harm, or do more harm than good.?
    3. Was the letter really a dog whistle for base political purposes.

  11. [its hardly a quantum leap to say that their behaviour damages the cause for furthering gay rights.]

    What people don’t know/see doesn’t hurt them. It’s idiots like Koutz who publicise it and make it worse, not better.

  12. I’m happy to say on the public record that I oppose Rudd’s stance on gay marriage, and I will continue to do so. Its a damn shame that I have a UK civil partnership but not one in my own country.

  13. [ Blogsite censorship and gay rights – are these the main issues in this election?
    ]

    Seem to be. Very little discussion about anything else. 😆

  14. [ I’m happy to say on the public record that I oppose Rudd’s stance on gay marriage, and I will continue to do so. ]

    And it would be nice to hear, just for once:-

    I congratulate the Greens for their brave stance in bringing the issue of gay marriage before the Australian parliament and advocating strongly for it

    ;lol:

  15. [I congratulate the Greens for their brave stance in bringing the issue of gay marriage before the Australian parliament and advocating strongly for it ]

    But limiting the debate to 30 minutes. It really was a debacle how much of a rush the debate was, all so that the Greens could put out a press release to say the major parties opposed it.

  16. Toorak Toof,

    Don’t forget corflutes. This blog is seething with all the mainstream issues of concern to the voters of SA.

  17. #508

    [ Gay men who frequent beats do nothing to further this cause. It just gives the rednecks something to demonise gay men with. ]

    This is the same logic as:-

    Women shouldn’t wear short skirts. It just encourages the sicko’s to rape them.

  18. They’re a bunch of lightweights GG. Their main objective seems to be to highlight their own stupidity. If the liberals wanted to have a real debate on this issue theyd have been much better off choosing to fight over the location of the new hospital, how many beds it will have, what will the design be etc … then people might take them more seriously.

  19. [Their main objective seems to be to highlight their own stupidity.]

    That is highly offensive to the people involved, many of whom I work with. The doctors involved are all very intelligent people who have given a lot to the public hospital system. Several have been the head of their respective departments.

    Their sole objective is to stop the RAH from moving.

    They are entitled to voice their opinion in a democracy. The only poll on the subject showed that the majority of the population agreed with them.

  20. Diogs,

    150 at a rally does not look like a majority.

    The Doctors probably held it on a Friday so it would not stuff up their weekends. Passion and committment seems like an optional extra in their campaign.

  21. GG

    [The Doctors probably held it on a Friday so it would not stuff up their weekends. Passion and committment seems like an optional extra in their campaign.]

    It was held on Thursday actually.

    It was an opening of the party, not a rally. And the only poll on the subject showed the majority support rebuilding the RAH.

    And I can assure you that they have passion and commitment. Perhaps too much at times.

  22. [150 at a rally does not look like a majority.]

    By that stupid theory, a majority of Australian supported WorkChoices.

    Care to retract your statement? Oh, wait, I forgot, i’m dealing with GG. Scrub that.

  23. Diogs

    It’s my understanding that a vast majority of the heads of departments at the RAH (both nurses and doctors) support the new RAH plans.

    You can’t govern on the basis of polls, of which the people who have been polled have no expertise or knowledge whatsoever.

    Katsaros’ main “passion and committment” is to the election of the Liberal Party.

  24. Diogs,

    Perhaps they should self prescribe some Mogadon.

    Their just a group of single issue nutters who need to be exposed for playing Liberal preference collector.

  25. Further, is it not admirable, and does it not show the real basis behind the decision, to see that SA Health still wants it on a new site.

    Not because they think it will win votes – but because expert opinion says that that is the best option for the long term viability of our state’s health system.

    Save the RAHers are a joke. They are what makes this the town of whingers and heritage loonies, still stuck in the 1940s. Want to stop change that they would probably be dead for anyway.

    This issue seriously makes me sick. I would go to the Lib’s bandaided RAH for a cure – but I might get hit by a crane, or my helicopter would have nowhere to land, or I would get a headache from jackhammering in the morning, or catch golden staph, or breathe in asbestos. There would be nowhere for me to park because the carpark would be a construction site – and I would be stuck in a room with 6 other people for 15 years while its built. All while the Libs are bankrupting the state with their massive under-costings.

    Seriously, the libs are a joke. How dare they put our future health at risk for political gain.

  26. James

    [It’s my understanding that a vast majority of the heads of departments at the RAH (both nurses and doctors) support the new RAH plans.]

    Not surprisingly, your impression is completely wrong. There are a number of administrators who have written letters to that effect after it was suggested to them that they should do so. It would be 2/3 against moving and 1/3 for moving amongst the senior staff.

    This issue highlights the arrogance of Labor. They think everyone who disagrees with them is stupid and should just stfu rather than exercising their democratic right to an opinion.

  27. The SAVE RAH website has a poll running about whether people want the RAH to stay or move. About 80 people have voted with about 1/3 voting for a move. Not sure how long its been up but doesn’t sound like a lot of action. Also apart from some details about where to send money, really no contact details for candidates etc.
    JB – what connection is there between heritage protection and RAH – govt has said it will protect heritage places. Most of the minor parties are also having 2 bob each way on RAH issue.

  28. [Diogs your colleagues are either members of the liberal party, wannabe members or un willing pawns in their game.]

    To start off with that is not true. I know lots of people in the Party who have no interest in politics but think the RAH should not move.

    And even if it did have Lib sympathisers why can’t they form a Party which represents their views.

    Labor has pissed off so many groups in SA that there are about 5 single issue parties running against them. That’s called democracy.

    Don’t you people believe in democracy.

  29. [A LIFELONG ALP member and local councillor has called for a Liberal government in South Australia to clean out the cronyism allegedly flourishing under the Rann government.

    In comments that could have him expelled from the party, retired electrical engineer Robert Grant, 64, claimed Rann Labor was too cosy with big business and had deserted working people.

    “Sometimes you have to stand up for what’s right, and sometimes the Labor Party gets things wrong,” Mr Grant alleged yesterday.

    “They (the Rann government) are just in bed with business people . . . the working class and their children will get a better deal from a Liberal conservative government.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/alp-man-urges-end-to-rann-cronyism/story-e6frgczx-1225834509794

    In general I agree with him, but the last sentence is utter crap.

  30. Diogs of course people can have their say – but whether they like it or not, they are pawns in the liberal party game. You doctors are a conservative lot – I know, I do research with a lot of them.

  31. [You doctors are a conservative lot – I know, I do research with a lot of them.]

    Doctors earn a lot of money, and we all know who the rich end of town tend to vote for 😉

  32. [Water, he believes is a big issue. Piccolo agrees. Jobs? Yes, both candidates nod that jobs are a big issue. Health? Yes, health too. Roads? Oh, yes, they say. They both welcome the new housing developments but say there should be infrastructure – schools, roads and services – to support it. These candidates agree so much they could almost vote for each other.]

    Hahaha, this reminds me of when the two political candidates face off in a political debate in Futurama… 😀

  33. sykesie

    They are definitely not pawns of the Liberal Party. They set up the party as they were so disgusted with how useless the Libs were on the RAH issue. When they worked out that MHS wasn’t going to do anything useful, they went their own way.

    Just because a movement helps one side or the other, it doesn’t follow that they are “pawns” of the party that is helped.

    Is the environmental movement a pawn of the Greens?
    Are the unions pawns of Labor?
    Are the anti-NewRAH, pro-video gamers, St Clare groups pawns of the Libs?

  34. [Is the environmental movement a pawn of the Greens?
    Are the unions pawns of Labor?
    Are the anti-NewRAH, pro-video gamers, St Clare groups (and big business) pawns of the Libs?]

    Yes, to varying extents.

  35. That is the same as saying

    Any organisation that involves Sharan Burrow and Paul Howe are pawns of the Labor party believe you me.

  36. [Any organisation that involves Sharan Burrow and Paul Howe are pawns of the Labor party believe you me.]

    I said to some extent.

    As far as SA Labor goes, scrub unions and replace with the SDA.

    Voila 😀

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