Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. It’s not Garrett that the Libs are after at all.

    It’s just a carry over from the beginning of 2007 when the brains trust of the Liberal Party decided that if they disable Rudd, then they cripple Labor and life will suddenly be wonderful again.

    [Rudd became opposition leader in late 2006. It’s a long time for a politician to be impervious.

    Slowly, it is changing.

    There are several reasons why. Some of the journos have stopped behaving like Pussycat Dolls. That’s partly because Abbott has made the opposition competitive; it is safer for the less brave among them to tuck in behind him.

    Secondly, they were shown just what Rudd is capable of — or not — by a group of teens on Q&A.

    Thirdly, the Rudd style, and I use the word loosely, is beginning to bore them silly. RoboRudd (along with RoboWong and all the other programmed ministers) was amusing to begin with. Everybody had fun with his acronyms and bureaucratese, but there’s only so much of that kind of language you can take.

    Plus, the worse the Liberals got, the better Rudd appeared. He looked credible when Howard no longer did. Next to Brendan Nelson, well, even Rudd looked sincere. And towards the end against Malcolm Turnbull, all he thought he had to do was turn up.

    Now, the contrast between Rudd and Abbott is too stark. Abbott offers machismo and Rudd pure Mogadon.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/when-things-go-wrong-kevin-rudd-must-wear-the-blame/story-e6frg6zo-1225830260546

  6. [ She’s not taking this lying down. ]

    There are dozens of ways to take it other than the missionary position e.g. stand and deliver, doggie style….

  7. They really are sad desperate creatures at the OO. They are barely worth my contempt.

    Reading the article above indicates just how much they are all filled with personal hatred of Rudd. That piece is of course no better than high school junk, they are like jealous school boys bugging everybody they meet with stories of how so so so lucky that Kev is.

  8. I wonder which bright spark suddenly decided that they can’t damage Rudd with sleaze alone. No they now need to ensure the electorate is aware that Rudd is boring, he sprukes bureaucratic speech, he is untrustworthy, no-one can be sure where he stands, he can’t keep his promises and on and on it goes.

    We see the same sort of guff spruked by News Ltd hacks daily and anyone else they can fit on their pages that can say similar rubbish, just to give it a bit more credibility and as BB pointed out on numerous occasions they bootstrap it to the networks, the ABC and “journalists” from other publishers.

    As Dio said earlier, the simple minded in the electorate may fall for some of it but in the end, Abbott and the Coalition are going to have to convince the electorate that they “do” have policies and they are a viable alternative to Labors.

    Good luck with that!

  10. Scorpio, to put it simply if people believe Rudd is boring, sprukes bureacratic speech, is untrustworthy etc. etc. he can’t completely blame the media.

    I think he’s some of those things and it’s certainly not because the media told me to think it.

  14. Musrum@571:

    [Ok the new version of cccp will parse for Square Brackets that are probably intended to mark a quote and insert the HTML for you. This has had exactly 1 test, so enjoy the wonderful world of ” more Alpha than the Greek letter”…]

    Thanks Musrum!

    Don

  17. [As Dio said earlier, the simple minded in the electorate may fall for some of it but in the end]

    Curiously, I don’t think the “simple-minded” are the ones falling for it at all. It’s the right-wing intelligentsia who are jerking off while reading denunciations of Rudd on page after page of The Australian. Most of the floating voters, who neither know nor care much about politics, and who never look at a broadsheet newspaper, only know one or two things, but they are very important things:

    * Rudd got rid of WorkChoices
    * Rudd saved Australia from recession and thus saved their jobs

    That’s why Rudd is ahead and will stay ahead, no matter what the anti-Labor commentariat, of right or left, have to say.

  18. Sorry if this has been discussed already, but just watching PM agenda on Sky and the Essential guy talking about why they polled ‘Better PM’ and listed the options they did (Rudd, Gillard etc). He says wtte we felt it was time in the government term to be canvassing alternative government people to Rudd. This is Rudd’s first term! Any precedents of this in previous governments’ first terms?

  21. From wiki:

    Machismo is prominently exhibited or excessive masculinity. As an attitude, machismo ranges from a personal sense of virility to a more extreme male chauvinism.

    The English word “machismo” originates in an identical Spanish and Portuguese word, which however has a somewhat different meaning. Spanish and Portuguese machismo refers exclusively to the belief in the superiority of males over females, that is it means “sexism” or “male chauvinism”

    I guess Niki Savva was referring to the original Spanish, in which case I retract my ???s.

  23. [Now, the contrast between Rudd and Abbott is too stark. Abbott offers machismo and Rudd pure Mogadon.]
    Yeah, sure. Remind me again why Howard was so popular for so long.

  24. [I guess Niki Savva was referring to the original Spanish]

    Niki Savva was referring to whatever the Lib-bot implanted in her brain told her to refer to. We do all realise that she is a former Howard and Costello staffer, do we not?

  26. I would imagine the Newspoll would reflect all the other polls between 52 and 54 I would say.

    51 would not be believable and 56 too high.

    But the real issue will be how much Rudd will be able to get through much of the dishonest MsM during an election campaign. I imagine they will have every sleaze, lie, misinformation and invention you can think of and they will get as sleazy, low and filthy as they think they need to be…just think FoxNews.

  29. [ Newspoll just announce will come out at usualt ime – ie 10:15]

    Considering that Labor has been under sustained pressure for the past week, i’d suggest tonight’s Newspoll will be down one, to 51/49.

  31. Last time they were bad but it had no effect and hasn’t had much since. They will probably think they need to go harder and lower. Getting people to make allegation that are later retracted, swift boarding….

    Last time they were in disbelief and waiting for Howard rabbits.

  32. Tomorrrow’s Talking Point revealed:

    latikambourke

    this is a better #bad pun – ‘please listen to 2UE in the morning for the latest to rock Peter Garrett’s ministerial career.’ 8 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  34. [Curiously, I don’t think the “simple-minded” are the ones falling for it at all. It’s the right-wing intelligentsia who are jerking off while reading denunciations of Rudd on page after page of The Australian.]

    Given how few people read The Australian, I can’t see that accounting for Abbott having better net approval ratings than Rudd in Qld, and the polls saying the voters prefer Abbott’s figleaf CC policy.

    Abbott is putting out simple messages for people who like their information simple. He’s treating the voters like morons and they’re loving it.

  35. I can live with a delay to Newspoll…i’m just happy to see the magical numbers in Essential showing 48% normal, fair dinkum, true blue sons and daughters of Australia think 35 million population will be bad for Australia. yay!!

    This is an even stronger result than the Neilson polling on the same question, published in The age towards the end of last year

  38. [Which will be jumped upon by bob1234 with positively orgasmic glee]

    Yes, I want Rudd to lose and Abbott to win.

    Are you for ****ing real? Do you actually believe the dribble you write?

  39. [Essential showing 48% normal, fair dinkum, true blue sons and daughters of Australia think 35 million population will be bad for Australia]

    What do the other 52% think? Are they non fair dinkum, non true blue, sons and daughters of …. Burkina Faso perhaps?

  40. We have had a first term government that has been more than competent and secured first class economic credentials. So much so the Coalition try to distract from that subject.

    The current Opposition team is particularly poor and under skilled and no comparison to the Government’s front bench.

    One wonders if the right wing media were honest and simply spoke to reality how much difference it would make to the Liberal vote.

    If people were to realise just how bad the Coalition team truly are they would be annihilated at the next election.

    Barnyard Joyce in Finance, the man that answers finance question by stamping his hoof once for yes….. It truly demonstrates just how poor in talent they are that a near total idiot can attain that position.

  42. Itep

    “Individual contracts (AWAs) existed before WorkChoices which would mean a reintroduction wouldn’t necessarily mean a return to WC”

    No , New statutory indiv Contracts (AWAs) ar now banned Collective bargain is now restored as th main way of reaching agreementsbetween boss/employees

    So my queston I want thrown to Abbott is still corect

    ie as soon as Abbott says YES , to stat indiv contracts , thats where door IS opened (again) , for all abuses conditions workers HAD to agree to undr threat of sacking A Abbot yes also means colective bargaining thrown out window , again

    dont compare what Keating did re awa’s VS Howards prostriution of it (and effect removal of Unions from th bargain process as well)

  43. [The current Opposition team is particularly poor and under skilled and no comparison to the Government’s front bench.

    If people were to realise just how bad the Coalition team truly are they would be annihilated at the next election.]

    When a Government has to fall back on the ‘we have a better team’ argument that is a sign the end is near. These scare campaigns were run by the ALP in 1996 and the Coalition in 2007 to no effect.

    In fact if you look at comments made by Glen prior to the 2007 election they pretty much echo your exact words.

  45. A quick survey of the headings in today’s ‘The Australian’:

    ‘Garrett misses roof meeting to go bush’
    ‘Rudd may want to snub the premiers’
    ‘Brumby wake-up call in 12pc swing’
    ‘Brumby pledge after byelection swing’
    ‘Seven makes a deal with Rann’
    ‘Labor bosses snub premier’
    ‘Global asylum claims drop as nation’s rises’
    ‘Conroy cold on Stokes meeting’
    ‘Abbott vows hospital quick-fix’
    ‘Garrett to miss roof meeting’
    ‘Climate panel unders strain’
    ‘No more a silent victim’
    ‘An unskilled plan for the unskilled’
    ‘Bligh, Labor on skids as voters turn to LNP’
    ‘ALP waits for further numbers’
    ‘Shocking bungle but Garrett clings on’
    ‘Long way to go to close the gap’
    ‘ALP supremacy challenged’
    ‘Rudd faces dilemma over Garrett’s future’
    ‘Young women don’t need advice on how they treat their bodies, do they?’
    ‘When things go wrong, Rudd must wear the blame’
    ‘The poor logic of a spending spree’

  46. Not sure how to respond to that.

    24% think 35 million population is good/very good.
    5% don’t know.
    23% don’t care either way.

    I think the 24% will be sons and daughters of a county in 2050 I won’t recognise.

  47. [When a Government has to fall back on the ‘we have a better team’ argument that is a sign the end is near.]
    So you think the end is near for the government?

  49. [When a Government has to fall back on the ‘we have a better team’ argument that is a sign the end is near.]

    Labor rusteds are *extremely* insecure people.

Comments are closed.

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