Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.
UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.
UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.
UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.
Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.
• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.
• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.
• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.
• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.
• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.
• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.
i dont think they have ever said that, they just point out how bad the economic credentials of those opposite is
#738
Bob1234
I thought you were one of Tony Abbott’s secret love childs. But then again you might be Mark Latham’s secret love child. Or perhaps Michael Atkinsons love child. Anything is possible in the land of the conspiracy.
😆
[Labor rusteds are *extremely* insecure people.]
Greens Party Rusted Ons should probably keep to the university campus to save embarassment.
[No , New statutory indiv Contracts (AWAs) ar now banned Collective bargain is now restored as th main way of reaching agreementsbetween boss/employees]
Yes, that is the case. However, AWAs were introduced in 1996, well prior to WorkChoices.
[dont compare what Keating did re awa’s VS Howards prostriution of it (and effect removal of Unions from th bargain process as well)]
I don’t believe Keating had AWAs?
[ Given how few people read The Australian, I can’t see that accounting for Abbott having better net approval ratings than Rudd in Qld, and the polls saying the voters prefer Abbott’s figleaf CC policy. ]
True but its the overarching reach of Limited News throughout the country in print and electronic plus they also virtually infest the abc.
abc radio in its various forms picks up the OO agenda of the day, cassidy has them on insiders, channel 10 have them on Meet the Press.
Not sure if its true but I seem to recall someone posting here that the Daily Telegraph in Sydney has the highest daily circulation of any aussie newspaper. If the circulation number is correct or not it doesn’t matter, its the paper non broadsheet readers buy, you only need to move around Sydney to see this. And scum like ackerman are talking to these people on behalf of murdoch.
This is why american citizen murdoch still reckons he has such a big say in who forms federal government in australia. Another one with a huge sense of entitlement.
Ltep,
[I think he’s some of those things and it’s certainly not because the media told me to think it.]
That just shows that the strategy that has been employed for all of three years now, is working.
If it had “not”been employed you could possibly have an entirely different opinion than you have now.
Who’s to know either way, but I have noticed a gradual move away from the euphoria expressed by quite a number of regulars here over time.
A clear indication that some of it is cutting through and that enough exposure to it can have the desired effect.
A classic example was on the 7.30 report tonight with the Tea Parties. Many of those dills think that Obama is a communist, a Moslem, the Anti-Christ and worse. They didn’t believe anything like that until some ultra smart bugger put the idea into their heads.
Here i am watching Four Corners and seeing carers struggling to get money we have a government handing out money left right and centre to insulation installers
What a joke.
[So you think the end is near for the government?]
No. But I don’t think the Government has or will run a ‘team’ campaign.
[I imagine they will have every sleaze, lie, misinformation and invention you can think of and they will get as sleazy, low and filthy as they think they need to be…just think FoxNews.]
What’s new ThomasP – didn’t they do that from the moment Rudd became Leader.
The Govt. should forget the Oppn and just go and out and spruik the good stuff they’ve done. Don’t bag Joyce or Abbott personally. Kev should rise above it and get his mojo back. And get a darn good advertising agency to do the campaign ads using lots of Kev’s smiles. – and Therese, his secret weapon. She is brilliant.
Machismo!! Abbott!! he’s a right turnoff in that lycra stuff and the cossie. The Savvas women is not getting money from me now either – her book can stay on the shelf. I’m just lucky the bookshop didn’t have one last week when I was going to buy it.
[When a Government has to fall back on the ‘we have a better team’ argument that is a sign the end is near]
Rubbish. They’re made by every Government, every election.
So where’s the poll then, or is my clock fast?
the carers got a big boost last year. You know they get a very good pension i have a friend who looks after her husband and gave up work to do so,
most people would i think watch the winter olympics
We had this anti labor australian story re tas. tonight and now this
whats going on.
Scorpio@701:
[Secondly, they were shown just what Rudd is capable of — or not — by a group of teens on Q&A.]
If they have to be shown what to do by a bunch of teens they are in deep doo-doo.
Which we knew anyhow.
it is back to 10 15 vera prehaps that s a good sign.
But ha lets just take notice of essential
William who runs and owns essential the abc once wrote to me and said something about
/ textor what was that about.
[Greens Party Rusted Ons should probably keep to the university campus to save embarassment.]
Obviously you don’t keep up with me or you’d realise I vote for the progressive third force – be it Democrats or the Greens. The Dems are no longer it so I no longer vote for them.
[ Here i am watching Four Corners and seeing carers struggling to get money we have a government handing out money left right and centre to insulation installers
What a joke. ]
Remind me what the howard government did for carers in the 12 years they controlled things.
Vera – false alarm. 10.15.
[I thought you were one of Tony Abbott’s secret love childs. But then again you might be Mark Latham’s secret love child. Or perhaps Michael Atkinsons love child. Anything is possible in the land of the conspiracy.]
PY it just shows how paranoid all the Labor rusteds are. As if any of them can seriously claim I’d prefer a Liberal over a Labor government.
Just look at the SA election thread…
mr rudd was very policte to the kids on q and a and lets face it young children they where, i thought I new everything then.
well i soon found out by the time i was 18 that I was suddenly a labor voter much to the horror of my parents. who thought menzies was god
[Are you for ****ing real? Do you actually believe the dribble you write?]
Ah, funny you should say that, bob…
Thanks mysay
Hope it’s a good sign,
frank, ABC news WA will still have time to slip it in halfway through 😉
Aguirre
Cheers 🙂
Your joking right? You make up the rule then do the marking.
How about reality being basis of the comment – a near economic idiot is in Finance. You don’t think it is relevant to the public or speaks to the talent pool.
Howard made the assertion and nobody believed him, because they could see in Rudd and co that they were competent. This time around the assertion would be true and relevant also.
dave
That’s true but I was saying it isn’t just the right-wing intelligentsia who read The Australian who are seemingly falling for Abbott’s rubbish. It’s a wider phenomenon.
Mr Squiggle, have you been to the Netherlands? They have a population density of 400 people to the square kilometre. Ours is 3, or less than 1% of theirs. Even leaving out our desert areas, we are ridiculously under-populated compared to most developed countries. Is the Netherlands an overcrowded slum? No, it’s a very pleasant, clean, efficient, healthy, prosperous, liberal-minded, environmentally-conscious democracy, with thriving agriculture and lots of open space. Are they short of land, water, food, clean air, energy? None of the above, because they organise their economy and resources efficiently. I’m not suggesting that we can support 300 times our present population density, but we could certainly double it without any strain if we stopped wasting such prodigious amounts of water, food, land and energy.
The Australian is anti Labor ninety per cent of time, anyone who thinks Murdoch is a Labor person is kidding themselves..
But the Federal Government panders to him.. The ABC had a story about real people tonight and to suggest it was anti Labor is quite simply pathetic.
These people are what we pay our taxes for, the real disadvantaged and they need help now but instead we have Steve Conroy wasting money on a Tendering project- some 17 Million and environmental programs which are overfunded. It is a national shame.
Itep
no words games , enterprise agrements were brought in as an opton t , with Award as th back drop backup Howard then prostituted that principal total
So i repeat soon as abbott says yes to statutory indiv contracts (which IS diff to what Keating had with its protections) it is w/c , seeing all w/c abuses flow directley from that , seeing boss has all th aces in decks
I will assume the non response means there is no PM in Australian history who has faced polling of alternative prime ministers from within government in his first term of government. Anyone who needs further proof that the media is gunning for Abbott Liberals is clearly deluded.
Psephos
[Essential showing 48% normal, fair dinkum, true blue sons and daughters of Australia think 35 million population will be bad for Australia]
Mr Squiggle thinks that after the distribution of “preferences” that the 48% will magically transmit into at least 54 or 55% 2PP! 🙂
[Howard made the assertion and nobody believed him, because they could see in Rudd and co that they were competent. This time around the assertion would be true and relevant also.]
Alternatively it could have been the case that they were so desperate to get rid of Howard that they’d give anyone a go. If the public want to get rid of a Government the other party’s ‘team’ isn’t likely to be considered too harshly by the public.
For instance, I think the NSW Opposition could almost put anyone up and they’d likely win government. The WA Liberal Party has as Minister for Everything, Troy Buswell.
[A classic example was on the 7.30 report tonight with the Tea Parties. Many of those dills think that Obama is a communist, a Moslem, the Anti-Christ and worse. They didn’t believe anything like that until some ultra smart bugger put the idea into their heads.]
Scorpio – now let me see who could be that ‘USB’. Could be RM or GN or SH even BO’R at a push and all chased by a cunning fox.
It stuns me that people are so gullible. SBS showed a woman in shopping centre in Perth (I think) approaching Abbott saying wtte ‘she didn’t want Muslims in her country’. Abbott suggested (with a straight face) that he would take care of border protection. Easily fixed – lock them all in the hold of their boat and make the Navy tow them back into Indonesian waters. What ratbags the Opposition are.
I wonder if the Navy would ever be so compliant again.
I’m off to count the numbers. .
[no words games , enterprise agrements were brought in as an opton t , with Award as th back drop backup Howard then prostituted that principal total]
Isn’t this what in essence existed with AWAs and the no disadvantage test?
[That’s true but I was saying it isn’t just the right-wing intelligentsia who read The Australian who are seemingly falling for Abbott’s rubbish. It’s a wider phenomenon.]
It’s heaps of old people too
BH@784
Yep, he’s in Perth unfortunately 🙁
[What moral universe was he in when thinking he was the father of a 19 yr olds baby, he refuses to marry her and leaves when she is 7 months pregnant?
He rates just above Glenn Milne as pond scum.]
RU
This from the party that says
DO AS I SAY,NOT WHAT I DO
Pure unadulterated hypocrisy
[It’s heaps of old people too]
Who just happen to vote Lib anyway…
A question for those who know…
In the time of Whitlam, and later, Hawke/Keating, was the media so concentrated against Labor as it is today?
Its Ok Pseph, I know there are some people who love the idea of 35m and more, (eg Rudd).
There are, thankfully, some serious leaders in their chosen field who are part of the 48% with big doubts over (Bob Carr, Ken Henry etc).
I don’t mind a debate, and I have hopes we can do it properly this time around, but the real tragedy is that there is bi-partian support for the 24% position and neither major party interested in the 48% position (saying no to 35 million).
I’ve never been to the Netherlands, but I have been to me…..
[Who just happen to vote Lib anyway…]
There is always a swinging component in any demographic…
Marky, Australia’s welfare budget is $50 billion a year. Conroy’s allegedly wasted $17 million represents 0.3% of that budget – or is it 0.03%? – my maths is awful. Anyway it’s a piddling amount of money. And which environmental programs are overfunded? That’s not what your end of the political spectrum usually says.
Piers outed for verballing, on MediaWatch – re global warming.
[ For instance, I think the NSW Opposition could almost put anyone up and they’d likely win government. ]
NSW Labor should have been chucked out of office in the last election that Carr stood.
NSW libs keep finding ways to lose elections and seem intent of keeping their record intact. The nonsense with that nutter clarke still has a long way to go.
If labor had been chucked out when they should have, they would have rebuilt and probably back in by now.
[I don’t mind a debate…]
Well good, so why don’t you respond to the point I made rather than just repeating yours as though it were self-evidently correct.
[Marky, Australia’s welfare budget is $50 billion a year. Conroy’s allegedly wasted $17 million represents 0.3% of that budget – or is it 0.03%? – my maths is awful. Anyway it’s a piddling amount of money.]
Maybe this is why some claim Labor mismanage the economy. Here we have a Labor staffer in Psephos going “it’s only $17m, a piddling amount of money”.
$17m here, $17m there, $17m here, $17m there, it’s only money!
😀
[If labor had been chucked out when they should have, they would have rebuilt and probably back in by now.]
People said the same about both SA and Vic Labor in 1987-88. If they’d lost then they wouldn’t have been thrashed so badly in 1992-93. Well, this is easy to say in hindsight. At the time no-one said, “Labor should try to lose this election otherwise in four years time they’ll get really thrashed.” And it’s quite hard to lose an election on purpose.
“Isn’t this what in essence existed with AWAs and the no disadvantage test?”
if you think a boss and an employee ALONE , negotiationg conditions ending WITH a binding Stat indic contract , is not a disadvantage to th employee , then am surprised
If you think colective bargaining (which Julia changed IR act to as primary means to negotiate) does not assist th empployees pre exist disdavant bargain positon , am surprised
BUT these ar what over 60% of oz (incl masses of KLib suporters even polled) objected to with w/c principal , not only open to abuse , it was abused and even Lib parents saw thewre own kids abiused on conditons !
What you may hav missed is Keatings enterprise agreements opton had Awards as th actual backsdrop
[At the time no-one said, “Labor should try to lose this election otherwise in four years time they’ll get really thrashed.”]
SA Labor wouldn’t be so regressive today if they weren’t reduced to 10 MHAs in 1993.
Relative to $50 billion, $17 million is statistically very small amount. You want to argue the contrary, instead of putting words in my mouth?
Lindsay explaining economics to Barnaby. He should charge for his time.
Lib cheer squad out in force.