Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  2. [And JY was gushing that he had him on the show which is weird because of his leftish hippy views – he did write The Real Thing & Smiley which were anti Veitnamand was saying how Abbott was a brath of fresh air etc.]

    Frank – you’d better enlighten JY to Abbott’s weird ways of opening his mouth and breathing out different stories from one day to the next. I guess that could be called a breath of fresh air!!

  3. Love this bit. It’s why Howard snuck in the important bits after the 2004 election. The sneaky buggers had been bringing in the groundwork for Workchoices piece by piece so as not to scare the horses (electorate) too much beforehand and once it was safely bedded down to slip in Workchoices Mark 2!

    We (the fair minded amongst us) should do everything in our power to make sure that cannot happen.

    [TONY ABBOTT: I’ve always had the view that it’s better to take what you can get and come back for more later]

  5. [According toABC TV news, some bozo is suing the governement because his roof is electrified.]

    That bozo also claimed he was unfairly dismissed from the club he worked for even though he resigned and invoiced the company for his work.

    He is an electrician, who ran his own electrical business. Lets see how this pans out.

  7. Can someone send Lindsay Tanner a tweet or whatever to tell him to not let Barnaby get away with verballing tonight. Tony Jones will give Joyce a really good go, no doubt, because he will make for a supposedly colorful program.

  9. VP,

    [According toABC TV news, some bozo is suing the governement because his roof is electrified.]

    I put insulbatts in my roof cavity 25 years ago. I noticed when I was up there that there were earth wires lying loose everywhere and didn’t seem to be connected to anything.

    I got an electrician mate over to check and he showed me that no earth wires were connected to the ground, earth pole whatever.

    He said that it was as common as dog turds and that there had been some very sloppy installation requirements and no checking of work under the Bjelke-Petersen term of office.

    There could be a million homes like that. I don’t think anyone suing the Gove will be too successful.

  10. Nah, war memorials are nearly always there in part to sanitise wars and cleanse history of truths that people do not want to face.

    There are exceptions that I have seen: The German cemetary not far from Amiens in Normandy. The interps pretty well says, ‘War is stupid. Peace is good. These soldiers died for nothing.’

    The memorial to merchant seamen in Rotterdam is about the most moving memorial I have seen.

    Our role in the Vietnam war was plain and simple immoral. Legitimate memorals would state just that and would commemorate those who tried to stop the war or those who refused to be conscripted. WW1 is not arguable on the German side – the Kaiser wanted war and he got it. Immoral. The Boer War was the British equivalent of WW1 – no moral justification whatsoever.

  12. Caught Abbott almost wall to wall on SBS News tonight in the first 1/2 hr. Loved his comment about Pauline Hanson and that people were entitled to their view.

    Regardless of what I thought of her policies and ideas Abbott can’t sink much lower for being so hypocritical. Naturally he’s got all her voters now – or Barnaby has.

  13. [Our role in the Vietnam war was plain and simple immoral. Legitimate memorals would state just that and would commemorate those who tried to stop the war or those who refused to be conscripted…]

    Geez thats a bit rough. I still have the photo when I marched against the Vietnam War. But we can still honour those who fought a war, however immoral. They did not have the choice – they did what they were asked, told, forced to do.

    Many have deep emotional scars that will never be healed, many have killed themselves.

    Boerwar – as usual you spout simplistic crud and for that you stand condemned. 🙁

  14. BB cf Megalonis

    Yep. Spot on. Megalonis is one of the few islands rising above a sea of journalistic intellectual dishonesty, sloth and incompetence-for-hire.

  15. Miss Chancealot now wants CCTV footage released showing her and Rann walking together in 2005 (?)!

    She’s not taking this lying down.

  17. Useless Trivia alert:

    Actually expanding on the Johnny Young Post, it should be noted that a couple of Julie Bishop’s Staffers are daughters to Program Director/Morning Announcer Brian Lehman ( who was from Melbourne and was once known on 3AK as Barry Mann when as part of the No Wrinklies Fly format) – one of his daughters married Andre Shannon, a one time Liberal Candidate for Cowan.

  18. [Megalonis is one of the few islands rising above a sea of journalistic intellectual dishonesty, sloth and incompetence-for-hire.]

    Crud, he’s a news ltd hack. Who tries to portray himself as a sheep in wolves clothing.

  19. Love this bit of hypocrisy from Abbott back in 2005!

    [BARRIE CASSIDY: In yesterday’s ‘Sydney Morning Herald’ Michelle Grattan wrote that replacing Peter Reith with Tony Abbott is simply replacing one bother boy with another.

    TONY ABBOTT: Peter Reith certainly was a very tough minister. He knew what he was doing and he did it well. If I can be like Peter Reith in that respect I’ll be very happy. BARRIE CASSIDY: But you’re conscious, I’m sure, of what the public perceives as parliamentary behaviour. Do you think it’ll be part of your responsibility now, as Leader of Government Business, to try and improve standards in the Parliament?

    TONY ABBOTT: That’s really up to every member of Parliament. It’s not just a function of the Government or the Leader of the House. In the end, the Speaker has got a big role to maintain order in question time and really we’ve got to see less professional barracking from the Opposition and more constructive engagement. ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2001/s425027.htm

  21. rua

    It is an interesting question: ‘Where does individual responsibility for behaviour at war start and finish?’ Not easy, as you point out.

    I would certainly be interested in a war trial of the criminal politicians who took us, and kept us, in that immoral, murderous and immensely destructive war.

  24. [I would certainly be interested in a war trial of the criminal politicians who took us, and kept us, in that immoral, murderous and immensely destructive war.]

    Fair enough, but leave the guys and gals who did what they were told out of it. 🙁

  29. rua

    Several squillion german soldiers did what they were told in WW2. This included shooting at civilian rellies of mine for what must have amounted to just having some fun. It also included executing (as a hostage) a family friend because he was one of the first 20 or so to have passed the spot where a Germand officer had been shot by the underground.

    But the ‘we did what we were told’ defense did not work out too well for some of them at Nuremberg. For very good reasons.

    BTW, Breaker Morant would have felt right at home in Normandy. Quite a few unarmed German prisoners were murdered there.

    I am not condemning the Viet Vets. As I said above, the morality of what individuals did in relation to the Viet War is a matter for their own consciences. It is not up to my judgement. Too hard and not enough information.

    Still, I would like to see a memorial to those, such as yourself, who tried to stop it.

  32. BH@680

    Frank = has the WA paper any less biased since Kerry Stokes bought it?

    Well it is still anti Federal Labor and on some aspects to WA Labor, but they have attacked the WA Libs on the proposed Stop & Search Laws and the Police Minister and the Anti Hoon Laws which have seen innocent people having their vehicles impounded.

    Unfortunately Paul Murray is still Paul Murray – a Douchebag 🙂

  33. Telstra won’t like this! Just when their copper network earnings are headed for the basement and their Mobile share decreasing, in comes more pressure!

    [AAPT launches no limit broadband plan ]
    [AUSTRALIANS have long been the only consumers in the world to submit to internet download quotas but that may be about to change.

    Telecom New Zealand’s Australian arm, AAPT, has started offering unlimited ADSL2+ broadband service to customers who are willing to sign-up for two years for around a $99.95 per month.
    AAPT claims that the service is the first not to impose throttling or give preference to off-peak traffic.
    AAPT chief executive Paul Broad said that the carrier’s offer would prompt its rivals to lift their broadband caps.
    “This is a milestone day for Australia as AAPT’s benchmark decision will force our major competitors to do the same thing. All Australians will benefit from AAPT leading the way with unlimited broadband,” Mr Broad said in a statement released today.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/aapt-launches-no-limit-broadband-plan/story-e6frgakx-1225830479094

  38. In last Friday’s blog entry “Barnaby’s Game”, The Piping Shrike gives a thoughtful analysis of Joyce’s place in and mportance to Abbott’s strateg, concluding that BJ’s “rube” persona is merely a mask for “a very ordinary,opportunistic National politician”.

    http://www.pipingshrike.com – The Piping Shrike

  39. Goldamn Sachs, the Dick Cheney of the banking world.

    [We now learn – from Der Spiegel last week and today’s NYT – that Goldman Sachs has not only helped or encouraged some European governments to hide a large part of their debts, but it also endeavored to do so for Greece as recently as last November. These actions are fundamentally destabilizing to the global financial system, as they undermine: the eurozone area; all attempts to bring greater transparency to government accounting; and the most basic principles that underlie well-functioning markets. When the data are all lies, the outcomes are all bad – see the subprime mortgage crisis for further detail.

    A single rogue trader can bring down a bank – remember the case of Barings. But a single rogue bank can bring down the world’s financial system.

    Goldman will dismiss this as “business as usual” and, to be sure, a few phone calls around Washington will help ensure that Goldman’s primary supervisor – now the Fed – looks the other way.

    But the affair is now out of Ben Bernanke’s hands, and quite far from people who are easily swayed by the White House. It goes immediately to the European Commission, which has jurisdiction over eurozone budget issues. Faced with enormous pressure from those eurozone countries now on the hook for saving Greece, the Commission will surely launch a special audit of Goldman and all its European clients]

    http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/14/goldman-goes-rogue-%E2%80%93-special-european-audit-to-follow/

  40. I’ve never heard Fraser comment on Vietnam. But if you become a lefty on other things you’re forgiven. Don Chipp, for example, was a Vietnam hawk in the 60s, but no-one ever brought it up when he was a Democrat.

  43. Pauline Hanson is leaving Australia to go and live O/S.

    I hope she keeps wearing the Aussie flag while she is there. Otherwise it would have to be, ‘Please explain.’

  44. BB – your take on the commentariat over the past 2 years is highlighted in LP today. It’s becoming more noticeable and what you predicted is coming to pass.

  45. [I am not condemning the Viet Vets. As I said above, the morality of what individuals did in relation to the Viet War is a matter for their own consciences.]

    We can blame Govts, politicians or whatever for wars, we can never blame those who fought the wars.

    Yes that includes WW II, I have only ever met one grandparent, the rest were killed by German bombs. I have uncles who I have never met. My mother was evacuated never to see her mother and father again.

    Vietnam was an abomination, the healing needed is huge. The last thing the many Vietnam Vets need is someone questioning their moral choices. They do it every day.

  47. Looks like Niki Savva spent too long in Abbott’s office. She is starting to sprout similar rubbish herself now.

    I won’t be bothered reading her book now!

    [IF four people had died either directly or indirectly as a result of a Howard government policy, the lynch mob would have been out not for the minister responsible for the program, but for the prime minister himself.

    In the Howard years, if Indian students were being regularly assaulted and sometimes murdered, it would not be a premier forced to make grovelling apologies on an almost daily basis and trying to repair relations with an old friend, it would be the PM. And whether it was true or not, the PM would be blamed for fostering latent racism. If John Howard had been prime minister when the Sri Lankan refugees were holed up for weeks on the customs vessel, Oceanic Viking, churches and humanitarian groups would have launched an all-out war against him.

    On all these issues, Kevin Rudd managed to remain separate and inviolate. Like one of those virgins Tony Abbott was talking about.

    Every time Howard appeared anywhere, he would be held personally responsible for every sneeze, wheeze or catastrophe that befell Australians.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
    Related Coverage

    * Shocking bungle but Garrett clings on The Australian, 19 hours ago
    * Is Rudd a one-term wonder? Adelaide Now, 1 day ago
    * ‘Don’t blame Garrett – yet’ Herald Sun, 1 day ago
    * Winds of change blow on Rudd Daily Telegraph, 1 day ago
    * Where Rudd and Abbott see eye to eye The Australian, 2 days ago

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    Howard’s personality and approach frequently invited it, but more often than not his friends in the media and lobby groups made sure he never escaped an interview without having to answer for or shoulder the blame for whatever had gone wrong.

    Peter Garrett is now being held wholly and solely responsible for the mismanagement of the insulation installation program. He is a soft target, already damaged by compromised principles and failed promise and will pay a price for his apparent neglect.

    But there was a collective decision-making process here, which is being largely ignored. The architects and progenitors of the $42 billion stimulus package that spawned the insulation program were the Prime Minister and Treasurer. Who insisted that it be rolled out in such haste, and before there was certainty it could be properly, safely administered?

    No one is demanding Rudd plead guilty to the deaths, but yesterday in a tepid half-hour television interview he did not pause for even a second to offer sympathy to the families of the four young men or express a scintilla of regret at the tragedy. The teleprompter in his chest that passes for a ticker was beating to its relentless rhythm when he began by rounding on Abbott for attacking Garrett, then pointing out that each year in Australia there are 138,000 industrial accidents involving serious injury, and more than 300 deaths to be investigated. And, by the way, we should wait for the coronial inquiries to finish before pointing fingers.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/when-things-go-wrong-kevin-rudd-must-wear-the-blame/story-e6frg6zo-1225830260546

  50. Bushfire Bill
    [ If nothing else it show the group think going on in the gallery precincts.]

    So you are challenging the orthodoxy that it is a conspiracy .
    You are suggesting it is an osmosis of thought by virtue of the cloistered nature of the press gallery situated in a city far removed from Australian reality.

    I’ll put my $20 on your concept. It beats hands down the conspiracy theory.

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