Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. Ron

    [well th Greens ar impotant & irelevent]

    If the Greens are irrelevant, it doesn’t matter how they vote. Your following diatribe emphasises that it does matter a lot how the Greens vote.

    The Greens are not irrelevant.

  4. [*does the bat-signal*

    Frank: have you got a link for those Northbridge crime stats you’ve posted a couple of times? I’m tangling with folk elsewhere on the net who reckon there’s ‘kid gangs’ roaming my fair suburb… I wanna throw those police PDF’s at them that show the arrests are about three quarters for drunk and disorderly.]

    None since the New Year, but the december ones are here:

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=Wgn4veJZ%2fRE%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=9hLSlN0lwxE%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=JXrRpw4T4Y0%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=sGF4Dmp6Lco%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=dYguihaw3EU%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=k4p2eTRucZg%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=kBK5qRXDKvU%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=dYguihaw3EU%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=k4p2eTRucZg%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

    http://www.police.wa.gov.au/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=kBK5qRXDKvU%3d&tabid=1489&mid=1983

  6. #169 – zoomster
    [ An email to the Minister might be even better!
    I used to ring the relevant Minister when I couldn’t get through to Centrelink. Worked like a charm. ]

    Do you have the formula for getting instant access to a Minister. Will you share it with us. If the formula is a trade secret, is the formula for sale and how much does it cost?

  7. [Hahaha redneck, 2007 invalidated that. You embarass your redneck self again. I feel bad for you… almost.]

    Actually 2004 VALIDATED it dumbass.

    Just because you win 1 election you think everyone supports all your leftwing policies? Give it a break.

    Boatpeople wasn’t even an issue in the 2007 election, Howard had stopped the flood of boats thanks to the Pacific Solution and as a result the issue wasn’t even on the radar, Workchoices however was.

  8. Cuppa@157:

    [Why use his initial?

    His name is Kevin Rudd, or, if you must, Rudd.

    Why his initial?]

    I think that is how he signs his twitters, KRudd.

    Better to do it yourself than have others make an issue of it.

    He probably copped heaps at school.

  10. Kevs Approval takes a Hit

    http://www.news.com.au/national/support-for-pm-kevin-rudd-softens-as-liberal-
    base-swings-to-tony-abbott/story-e6frfkvr-1225821039900
    [KEVIN Rudd’s personal support has taken a tumble as he confronts an election year with early signs that Tony Abbott is recapturing the traditional Liberal base.

    As the Prime Minister returns from summer holidays to the political frontline, a Newspoll published exclusively today in The Australian reveals Mr Rudd has recorded his second-worst voter satisfaction rating since the 2007 election.

    In a boost to Mr Abbott’s leadership, the first full Newspoll survey since he took over as Opposition Leader in early December reveals he has secured 61 per cent voter satisfaction among Coalition voters, reversing high dissatisfaction levels under Malcolm Turnbull.]

  13. On the poll, I propose the following:

    1. It is logical for the Greens to pick up some former Labor supporters who are disenchanted with the way Labor’s ETS has been put together.

    2. It is logical for some of the Liberal base, those who were disenchanted with Turnbull’s maniacal socialist leanings, to support the Righteous Abbott.

    This leaves Labor exactly where it wants to be: in the middle.

    Does this poll affect if and when Turnbull creates the Truly New Liberal Party?

    On another note, is the increase in the Newspoll ‘don’t knows’ statiscally sufficient to mask shifts in the ostensible numbers of those who have decided?

    And on yet another front, has the IPCC or the UN fired Lal yet? Chap apparently does not understand the need for peer-reviewed science as a pre-requisite for popping something into the IPCC Report. Lal is a free kick to the Minchins of the world. All of a sudden the OO-level ‘debate’ is not about how fast glaciers are disappearing. It is about shoddy science and whether glaciers are disappearing.

  14. Oh, the formula for instant access is:

    Work for the ALP on a voluntary basis for over ten years, never asking for anything for yourself, only for your community.

    Spend countless hours organising policy forums, branch fundraisers, chairing meetings, researching and writing policy, doorknocking, handing out HTVs, selling lottery tickets, etc.

    Start new branches, revitalise old ones, keep struggling ones alive.

    Campaign in seats Labor is never likely to win.

    When you’ve done all that, some of the Ministers will listen to you.

  16. Socrates@195:

    [A bit of a cross post but does anyone know much about Haiti pre-earthquake? ]

    You should read “Collapse” by Jared Diamond, Chapter 11 pp 329-357.

    It explains what is wrong with Haiti and why it is faring so much worse than the Domican Republic just across the line on the map of the island of Hispaniola.

    Part of it is environmental differences, Haiti gets the raw end of the deal with rainfall – the winds bringing rain are from the east, and there are mountains near the border with the result that the rivers flow east to the Dominican Republic instead of Haiti, and Haiti is in a rain shadow.

    The Dominican side has deep soil and wide valleys and plains perfect for agriculture, Haiti is much drier with thin soils, mountainous terrain, and less flat areas, more unproductive limestone terrain, and the soils do not produce much.

    Haiti was a colony of France, the Dominican Republic was a colony of Spain.

    Spain neglected the DR, and France flogged Haiti for all it was worth – they brought in slave labour, and chopped down the forests, giving a short term bonanza, but setting the country up for collapse. Haiti, because of the investment by France, had a population seven times that of Haiti in colonial times, in an area half as big.

    Then there were complicated political differences which I won’t go into here which favoured the DR and disadvantaged Haiti.

    It’s a good read, as is anything by Jared Diamond. If you haven’t read it, “Guns, Germs and Steel” is an even better book by Jared Diamond about why the world developed as it did in the fertile crescent and not elsewhere.

  17. Whoops,

    Haiti, because of the investment by France, had a population seven times that of the Dominican Republic in colonial times, in an area half as big.

  19. 206 , 214

    So long as your enquiry to the Minister’s office has a personal angle and there is potential (or better still realised) media interest, then I am sure the lovely ministerial staff will only be happy to look into your matter with the relevant department…
    (remember, Media Monitors® captures anything from your local bush paper to Seven’s Today Tonight).

    But if you just have a generic rant against a particular political position said Minister has taken, then it’s unlikely you will get assistance, particularly if it falls into the category of “well, we knew it wouldn’t please everyone…” or “heard that one before”

  20. Darren…..#219

    I appreciate a paid political staffer will talk to you, but I thought zoomster was talking about the boss Minister…….

  21. Darren Laver

    can’t speak for Conroy’s guys, but I did a stint in a backbencher’s office for a year or so.

    The rule was to refer every letter we received, even chain mail, to the relevant Minister. In every case, the relevant Minister sent us an answer, which we forwarded on.

    The only ones that got no response were anonymous!!

    You’re more likely to make an impression, however – a different thing – if your letter is sensible, treats the relevant politician as a professional (rather than abusing them or making it sound as if you think they’re stupid or corrupt) and gives them information they haven’t already got.

    In the majority of cases, work on the assumption that the Minister had good reasons for whatever decision it is you’re objecting to, but has perhaps overlooked some of the implications of the policy in reality.

  22. 220

    I see.

    I thought he meant getting the problem resolved – rather than talking to the Minister.

    You see, those two things are often mutually exclusive! 😉

  23. #221 – zoomster

    You nust have worked for a very diligent backbencher with a good procedural policy in place. I am not sure his/her behaviour would necessarily be the “norm”. My experience has been that responses are most likely to be unresponsive, even if lengthy.

  25. The main thing is persistence, and having something relevant to say.

    The vast majority of correspondence received by an MPs office is, I have to say, either requests for money or from loonies.

    The convinction that 95% of the people I dealt with were certifiably crazy was one of the reasons I left the office. I started assuming everyone I spoke to was crazy (it saved time) which was not a good way to go.

    So even if you do sound sane, the person on the other end of the phone/conversation may be treating you with caution.

    My favorites were: the woman who was worried her deer would stop mating because of the nudist colony next door to her farm; the man who said that the IOC had him locked away in a mental asylum (“Do I sound crazy to you? Do I? DO I?”); least favorite – the guy who wrote to us three times a week demanding that crash helmets not be compulsory on bicycles, because they caused head injuries (the Minister stopped answering those ones).

    So you need to have something relevant to say, not sound like you’re wearing a tin foil hat, and not be asking for money.

  29. [Best way to talk to a Minister directly….go to a community cabinet meeting.]

    Which Prissy Chrissie Pyne was whinging about because they were always held in “Marginal Seats” – the latest one will be in his own Electorate of Sturt.

  30. [Which Prissy Chrissie Pyne was whinging about because they were always held in “Marginal Seats” – the latest one will be in his own Electorate of Sturt]

    Oh beautiful.

    deep into enemy territory.

    🙂

  31. 222

    Darren..

    getting a problem resolved is even harder. I don’t have any magic formulas for that, although again, persistence.

    Multiple methods of attack is also good. So local member, Senator, Minister, Shadows, letters to the editor, petitions, contacting relevant policy committees within the party structure; phone calls, emails, letters…

    Good campaigns that worked: a group of locals made sure that someone rang in every time Jeff Kennett was on talk back to raise a certain issue; when he found out how few they were, having given them what they wanted, he said that if he’d realised that, he would never have yielded; Joan Kirner, before entering politics, organised a group of mothers so that the same person in a Ministerial department received a phone call on the relevant issue every half hour for several days.

    Much harder for one person, of course.

  32. Actually mine is a state problem……not a swing seat….stubborn minister…..and an MP who will never be in government whatever happens.

  33. PY

    can’t give advice over the net! If you send William an email, he might be good enough to forward it to me, and I’ll give you advice.

    Which state are you in, for starters?

  36. zoomster –
    NSW…..but I have tried another avenue late last week – by writing a letter. No response as yet. If this doesn’t work, then I will come back to you. Thanks for the offer.

  38. Rebecca
    Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at 8:47 pm | Permalink
    Ron “there ar no Senate votes for an alternitive econamicly viable ETS , econamics disqualafies Greens of couse”

    Rebecca “Thanks to Labor, you’re right that the votes aren’t there.”

    no you miss th econamic point i said There is NO alternitive econamicly viable ETS put up by any othr Party !

    Greens 25% policy is econamic , politcal & soisial madness for this country & its peoples

    Rudds 5% ETS is th only viable econamic & sosial ETS one , which we publicly know Turnbulls Libs in Nov were going to pass until Greens spent a week sabitaging/delayin it Because of th Greens we hav no ETS , shame

    Rebecca “if a solution that’s actually capable of doing something isn’t adopted ”

    Why Greens ar irelevent is there polisy will NOT be passed by Labor , unless th World agrees to 25% , so them siting in th Senate with there 7 votes during CC debates pushing a polisy that any sensible econamic person would reject makes them just on th sidelines of CC

    Furthar why th Greens ar also irelevent is they fail to undrsrtand what th soluton is ! , you say “th soluton capable of doing ‘something'” Greens do not undrstand what th ‘someting’ is !

    its caled plant & infrastuture that produces R E , requiring private companies funds totaling bilions , thats what produces CC mitigaton , replasing fossil enegy with R E enegy , but needs bilions of private compayes investment THAT is th only soluton capable of achieving fossils caused CC mitigaton apart

    Onse Greens get that , then you can start learnin numerous th finance project basises used to deside on bilions to invest , but a pre req is an ETS , a subject Greens comersialy do not undrstand

    However Rudds is th only viable econ & sisial ETS & th only one that will be put , which allows such R E investments to start Whethr downstreem tinkering with eithr th cap or th target or R E subsidies to kick things along thats for post an ETS being pased , ulktimately hopefuly if world agrees at 25% Looking at pols it is now going to be hard to get any ets pased

    ps/ ignore partys web sites , i notise Greens rarely public talk of non fosil cause of co2 , being need four more reveggying & re forestatons , but there you go , one liners of 25% of co2 is easier to say on TV popuarwise

  39. “The Green ferals are winning this week!”

    you’ve never one anything Geez How many HOR seats hav you been winning since 1996
    Greens do not adres realistic polisys outcomes

  41. Don

    Thanks; I had read Collapse but had forgotten some of the Haiti bits. At first, I still find the population growth in Haiti post colonialism staggering. But having jsut read up their history I see they had over 500,000 slaves on Haiti in the early 18th century! So the large population/poor agriculture scenario was set up pretty early. Between bloody revolutions, land clearing, over population, French interference and in the 20th century US interference it is a tragic history. How do you begin to rebuild a palce where people have no historic experience of a peaceful stable government?

  43. It is now 8.40am on Tuesday 19th in Massachusetts. The polls close at 8pm US time (by my calculations thats 12 noon our time). Don’t know how long it will be before the first results start to trickle in. It will be a good test as to how accurate the polls were.

  44. in that articl Frank

    “Tony Abbott wrote to the Prime Minister just before Christmas pledging bipartisan support for emissions reduction targets.”

    So Bob Brown rites to Kevin Rudd just pre xmas , and so does Tone Abbott , both make sure there phony letters get published , neithr sugest anything diferent , sor of like politcal xmas cards , to themselve

  45. Ron – #244

    [ “Tony Abbott wrote to the Prime Minister just before Christmas pledging bipartisan support for emissions reduction targets.” ]

    If Abbott has agreed to Rudds targets – then what are the 2 major party’s fighting about? They both want to introduce an ineffective ETS. So are they fighting about who gets the money, and how much?

  47. Furthar why th Greens ar also irelevent is they fail to undrsrtand what th soluton is ! , you say “th soluton capable of doing ’something’” Greens do not undrstand what th ’someting’ is !

    its caled plant & infrastuture that produces R E , requiring private companies funds totaling bilions , thats what produces CC mitigaton , replasing fossil enegy with R E enegy , but needs bilions of private compayes investment THAT is th only soluton capable of achieving fossils caused CC mitigaton apart

    Onse Greens get that , then you can start learnin numerous th finance project basises used to deside on bilions to invest , but a pre req is an ETS , a subject Greens comersialy do not undrstand

    That’s because the Greens define “something” in regard to climate change as a policy that actually achieves the stated goal of preventing climate change from spiralling out of control, instead of peeing into the wind. The environment just doesn’t give a damn about the economic challenges caused by dealing with climate change; either we do this properly or suffer the drastic consequences. The major parties have gotten so used to being able to spin their way out of anything that they’ve come to believe their own propaganda.

    I’d also suggest that, perhaps if you’re going to be commenting on a scientific subject, it might be helpful to display some English skills at a higher level than that of your average five-year-old, since that might lead some to doubt your ability to comprehend your way around complex issues.

  48. It is now 8.40am on Tuesday 19th in Massachusetts. The polls close at 8pm US time (by my calculations thats 12 noon our time). Don’t know how long it will be before the first results start to trickle in. It will be a good test as to how accurate the polls were.

    I’ve been dreading that result for days. A Brown victory would be utterly devastating for the Democratic agenda, yet it’s such a completely unnecessary own goal to have caused. Martha Coakley should go down as one of the worst high-profile political candidates of modern times.

  49. “That’s because the Greens define “something” in regard to climate change as a policy that actually achieves the stated GOAL of preventing climate change”

    and th “goal” is AXACTLY what i said !

    Ron : “its caled plant & infrastuture that produces R E , requiring private companies funds totaling bilions , thats what produces CC mitigaton , replasing fossil enegy with R E enegy , but needs bilions of private compayes investment THAT is th only soluton capable of achieving fossils caused CC mitigaton”

    thanks for confirmin it If you ar going to run a circalar argument then you will end up in th reel world , finaly ,

    but Greens ar still stuck with repeating th problam & can not address th reel soluton & it involvs replasing as much as posible th enegy souse you ar hitting th key bord with now , with R E , and how that leads to R E plants & infrastucture

  50. That the Libs are even in the same ball park as the Labor clearly shows the average Aussie pays no attention to politics except the the occasional glance. Nobody in their right mind, if they knew the Libs were being controlled by extreme right wingers, would consider voting for them. It is lunacy – these people would be the destroyers of Aussie rights and conditions.

    It is the silence of the Christmas period, everything has gone quiet, a few in the electorate have pushed the political reset button where previous sins have been forgotten. And of course Abbott has been given every sort of free kick imaginable from the right wing media including the disgracefully bias ABC.

    Just as in the USA the media meme is toxic against Obama and the Dems, so much so they are behind in the last poll of Mssch. I mean, what people in the right minds could possibly think of voting back in any Republican given their record before and after the last POTUS election. Are Americans so insane? They will think about voting for a party whose philosophy is basically to have them financially raped over and over by corporate America?

    So many years of Bush and Howard corrupted the media and also the clear and fair thinking of many people.

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