The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.
This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:
Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).
Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.
Also:
• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.
• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.
• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.
• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.
So it’s steady as she goes on the good ship Ruddy 😀
Kev’s been on holls the past few weeks and yet Tone with all the MSM from Gratten to Crabbe to their ABC Lib cheer squad telling us what a great hip ladykilling chap he is can only get a couple of points boost 😛
Even the redneck shockjocks in full voice and the fool up the pole couldn’t help!
There will be egg all over lots of faces just like there was when it was “game on” and Malcolm the great clever saviour was going to make Kev a one term wonder.
These media types never learn, I suppose because their predictions about Malcolm were greatly exaggerated at the best and at the worst downright poppycock, they are smarting that Kev made them all look like the usless fools they are and now they are out for revenge!
They’ll go in twice as hard for Tone with their fingers crossed begging “Please don’t let us down Tone, we have suffered enough humiliation for our bad judgement in the past. Save our reputations Tone and we’ll be yours for life!” 👿
Larvatus Prodeo has an interesting thread running at the moment on ABC bias.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/19/the-abcs-credibility-takes-a-hit-in-poll/
[I use GG’s patented idea of socks,but i just throw em at the screen]
Gusface, me and BH are well stocked up waiting for the fun to start when QT returns 😀
vera, you articulate such fascinating conspiracy theories 😀
zoomster
The Health system is really struggling at the state level already, where do you think the money will come from to pay for the health of people without health insurance.
The people who will leave the system will save K-Rudd his 30% in rebates, but the 70% these people no longer pays will mean 70% of the money will leave the health system
All K Rudd is doing is deferring health cost to a future generation, when the people who opt out of health insurance… suffers a heart attack or develope cancer… instead of the insurance companies paying the cost, the public will pay the cost
It is a short term saving for K Rudd, at the cost of the long term health of the nation and its budget
And don’t forget, Tone, we’d like the billions-worth of gravy train government “advertising” money to run our way again please.
Why use his initial?
His name is Kevin Rudd, or, if you must, Rudd.
Why his initial?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election#Polling – 12% with the last nine all being 10%+, a record that continues to beat itself with each poll, and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_state_election,_2010#Polling – 12% with the last four all being 10%+, a record that continues to beat itself too.
Can someone please tell me why the Green vote seems to keep going up and up and up, not just in the past several polls, or since the 2007 election, or since each election they first contested? The vote never seems to go down!
😀
I remember being told once before by the Libs and Health Insurance funds that people would leave the health insurance funds in droves and the health system would collapse when the govt made changes to the $300 rebate but surprise, surprise, the people joining health funds actually increased.
Alas for the Liberals, the media in Sydney at least are more interested in Prince William’s arrival…..and he’s doing an engagement with the Ruddster tomorrow. 😉
Cuppa – good link for LP. We mouthed exactly the same here at breakfast time. It was woeful reporting. All Joe O’Brien said was that Rudd had taken a dive and was 52 to Abbott’s 51. It sounded as tho Kev was well and truly on the nose.
LP is right about Samantha Maiden. It was an extremely fair piece in the OO and I actually checked the site after watching ABC Breakfast thinking that PB had got it wRONg last night. Even Skynoos was a bit fairer than the ABC.
Vera – have a read of Cuppa’s link of LP. Will do your heart good to see someone else agrees with us. (and yes, the socks are piling up – nearly used some this morning with Trioli and O’Brien)
I asked before but will again – is O’Brien married/partnered. He needs a bit more life experience by the sound of him.
I bet Obama would love to have Rudd’s supposedly “awful” approval ratings. 🙂
G’day Vera and BH!
If it wasn’t for the coverage of the Haiti disaster, I’d avoid that breakfast show on ABC2.
Is Joe O’Brien a Liberal? He’s worse than Virginia, if that’s possible.
If the media is really trying to help the Liberals win the next election (or indeed, any election) they’re going about it exactly the wrong way.
Labor had the same kind of experience – the media constantly touted them as favorites to win the next election, touted their leaders etc until Latham crashed and burned. Then the tune changed to ‘Howard the master politician’ who was unbeatable, who would be able to pull rabbits out of the hat, who had the support of his battlers, who was a safe pair of hands….
While the media is telling the Liberals that 2007 was a mistake, that Abbott is terrific, and that Rudd is a do nothing leader, the Libs will go on with business as usual and be wiped out at the next election.
This will be far worse for them than 2007 was, because they stand to lose so many of the sane and rational and be left with the lazy and the extreme.
People in safe seats are, well, safe. Backbenchers in safe seats have nothing to lose, no matter which party wins or loses.
So after 2010, the Federal Libs will resemble the state Libs. The nervous nellies who listen to their electorates because they will otherwise lose them will not be in the party room. The extremists who only listen to their far right wing constituents will be.
If, however, the media played the game differently, laid all the cards out on the table, and pointed out that the Libs are going to be creamed under Abbott, that they need to try a totally different tack in order to save the furniture, things might work differently.
A Liberal party which agreed with the government on sensible measures, negotiated with them in good faith to improve legislation, came out with policies which were both interesting and different, would still lose seats at the next election, but probably not so many and, more importantly, would create the impression that they were a safe pair of hands, ready and willing to take over from the government when necessary.
A Liberal party which ruthlessly weeded out its extremist elements, replacing them with centrists who look and sound like real human beings, and got rid of any last vestiges of Howardism, would do even better.
Their best hope in recent times was for MT to win the leadership despite the opposition of the extremists. He could then have put them all on the backbench and promoted some of the moderates. (A nice by product of the leadership meltdown in December was that we got to hear from some of the more moderate Liberals, who were able to prove that there were interesting and informed Liberal parliamentarians).
If the media really wanted a competition, not only at the next election but at the one after that, that’s the sort of thing they’d be saying.
N.S.W State news: It looks like our new Premier will dump the Sydney Metro project.
I agree that the bluster about this Newspoll is unfounded, and the Liberal hacks on here know it.
No move on the Lib or Nat primary vote, and Abbott only went up 2% on Preferred PM, and they’re acting like there’s been some massive shift.
Pfft, get over it.
Oh, and Greens at 12%, with a string of nine 10%+’ers! 😀
[Is Joe O’Brien a Liberal?]
Evan14 – I reckon he is – always has a big smile for them. He’s a dead giveaway and that’s why I find him so immature for the ABC.
The Breakfast program is now pretty boring – needs fresh life. I enjoyed the weeks when Michael ? and the Indian/Pakistani(?) woman did the programs while Trioli and O’Brien were away. Both were interesting interviewers and both were very balanced in their analysis. It was a stark contrast to all the others.
Evan – haven’t had time to listen to local morning radio here in past week or so. Is Liebman doing any better than Price. The weeks when 2SM were running the programs were shockers – total League of Rights type stuff. Amazing.
BH,
I’ve found that ringing the ABC and asking to be put through to the relevant department – eg News or Online – is a good way to get your feelings across to them directly. 13 9994 for the cost of a local call. Of course, sending a letter is the more official means, and they really cannot ignore written correspondence because they are obliged to respond to it. Even though the “response” is usually a cut-and-pasted proforma.
An email to the Minister might be even better!
I used to ring the relevant Minister when I couldn’t get through to Centrelink. Worked like a charm.
Oh, here’s a trend rather than an individual poll too – Labor’s primary vote has been 43% or below for the past five Newspolls. This hasn’t happened for Labor under Rudd before.
I called Senator Conroy’s office (about the internet filter) before the Christmas break, and they still haven’t returned my call. They sounded frantically busy when I called, which probably explains their tardiness, which is not surprising, given the controversy that was raging around the filter at that time (and still). However, thanks Zoomster, I won’t give up on them. Will put his office on the list of those to contact about ABC bias
[The State Government has announced South Australia will get 148GL of floodwater for the Lower Lakes.
It is about to hold a press conference announcing details of the allocation to flow down the River Murray, followng negotiations with the New South Wales Government.
Up to 800GL of water is predicted to flow into the Menindee Lakes in NSW following widespread flooding across northern NSW.]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26608152-5006301,00.html
G’day back to ya Evan, I wasn’t ignoring you, been having dinner 🙂
Thanks for that number Evan. We pay for them so we have every right to let them know how we feel – provided of course it’s not nitpicking about everything.
But today has been a bit of a loss for the ABC in reporting of that poll. Silly really because when you actually see the figures it just puts the ABC journos in a bad light. Not sure that’s really how they want to be seen in the long run.
Evan = let’s know what you think about the new morning radio when you’ve got a chance.
Off to start dinner before OH expires after doing all the lousy ‘fixing things’ jobs today.
[Labor’s primary vote has been 43% or below for the past five Newspolls. This hasn’t happened for Labor under Rudd before.]
Certainly has, at the last election.
[Certainly has, at the last election.]
43.4%.
But the polling has never been at 43% or below for 5 in a poll. An election result is not a poll. We look at polling trends.
That should be “for 5 in a row”.
[An election result is not a poll.]
Really? It’s the poll that counts.
Don’t be concerned bob, Rudd will win.
[Labor’s primary vote has been 43% or below for the past five reported Newspolls.]
Fixed.
[Don’t be concerned bob]
🙂
[Don’t be concerned bob, Rudd will win.]
He’d better. I refuse to live in a country with Tony Abbott as PM.
Possum has a good post on CC and the CPRS. This graph really stood out for me. The COALition has really mobilised their base against a CPRS. If you look at this, they have gone from moderate approval to strong disapproval. It just goes to show that Lib voters will flip-flop in the winds of change for no apparent reason. CC and the CPRS legislation is the same as it always way.
[It just goes to show that Lib voters will flip-flop in the winds of change for no apparent reason.]
Conservative voters tend to favour authority of fairness as a moral compass.
So they do have a compelling reason: their leader has told them that climate change is “crap”.
[authority over fairness]
Diogenes
“This graph really stood out for me. The COALition has really mobilised their base against a CPRS”
obvously read my posts about latest poll showing colapse of suport for ETS And this before a electon campagn where th scare tax bit will get more publisity
what th Greens hav done trashin th ETS from th far left and th Libs hav done from th ‘right’ is lesen th chanses of us geting an ETS , as politcaly it is getting harder
its easy for Greens to stupidly say one liners its not enuf (like we do trades with th World to get our livin standards) AND its easy for libs to stupidly say one liners it a big tax (like it has to be to discorage emitters via a cost & cap but most indiv voters do actualy get mostly offsets)
fortunate for oz , Rudd is th only Party leeder who cares enuf about CC to actual take th very acton you first need to get CC mitigaton fior oz IF you ar fair dinkum & not a econamic lunatic , being an ETS machinary econamic model
fortunate for oz , Rudd is th only Party leeder who cares enuf about CC to actual take th very acton you first need to get CC mitigaton fior oz IF you ar fair dinkum & not a econamic lunatic , being an ETS machinary econamic model
…besides your terrible grammar and spelling, how can you claim that Rudd “cares enough about CC to take the action to mitigate it” when no one realistically claims that the ETS as it currently stands is going to do a damn thing.
well th Greens ar impotant & irelevent , Libs ar deniers , so obvous its Labor as th oz CC savour
there ar no Senate votes for an alternitive econamicly viable ETS , econamics disqualafies Greens of couse
youse think your stupid 25% ETS will ever get passd without a World agreement , you ar dreaming seeing you ONLY hav 7 votes out of 78
what Greens hav done is stupidly trash suport for any ETS if anyone knowledge looks at th polls
once Greens failed undrstanding econamics (actualy never did learn it come to think of it) & how investment operats in a market econamy , you Greens became insidental to solving CC in oz
anyways off for moment , but dont expect anyting inteligent from Greens on this Site on HOW busines invests hundreds of milions of dollars into replasemnt enegy R E plants without an ETS , an area well beyond Greens commersial comonsense
[Really? It’s the poll that counts.]
Including the 2001 Federal Election?
The Labor Hacks still haven’t accepted the verdict on that one.
[Bob McMullan is not contesting the next election, making his safe ACT seat of Fraser vacant – for George Williams, perhaps]
George Williams, who’s he, surely the seat is for Psephos. Maybe that is why he has taken a holiday, it is not a holiday at all, but a makeover complete with elocution and civility lessons?
[The Labor Hacks still haven’t accepted the verdict on that one.]
I’m pretty sure they are over it troofie, labor is in power now,but you really need to get over 07, let it all out, go on you know you want to.
[The Labor Hacks still haven’t accepted the verdict on that one.]
More BS. Labor didn’t win the election and moved on. Then won beautifully on ’07.
Is that why they constantly whined about “Children Overboard”.
The Punters gave such a shit about “Children Overboard” that they re-elected Howard again in a landslide in 2004!
Heres an idea… no one cares about Leftie Pet Projects like “Children Overboard”, in fact it probably helped Labor lose the next election.
You keep looking back TTH – strange name that, you wouldn ‘t know what the truth is if it came up and bit you on the bum. I’ll look forward and the next Liberal loss federally.
A bit of a cross post but does anyone know much about Haiti pre-earthquake? I jsut saw the news and I was struck agai by the huge population in sucha small country (10 million in an area smaller than Tasmania) and by how badly the food production system seems to have broken down. This left me to conclude that maybe they weren’t self-sufficient in food before the quake, relied on cash crops and sweat shop labour to make cash to import enough food, and of course were still very poor. So now with not enough local food, and blocked roads preventing distribution of food aid coming in, I fear people will starve. Does anyone know if that is a realistic summation? Is there some other explanation for the lack of food?
Regarding the population, this is an example of where those twisted Bush aid policies where nobody could mention abortion have really backfired. There must be a huge birthrate in Haiti for so many kids to be visible in every shot.
If you should ever need to appeal against the deregistration of a political party by a State Electoral Commission, it may be best to appeal to your state’s Supreme Court, rather than the local Magistrates Court… http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/19/2795866.htm?site=qanda
Looks like another conspiracy by ‘them’ to ‘get’ One Nation.
well th Greens ar impotant & irelevent , Libs ar deniers , so obvous its Labor as th oz CC savour. there ar no Senate votes for an alternitive econamicly viable ETS , econamics disqualafies Greens of couse
Thanks to Labor, you’re right that the votes aren’t there.
However, this doesn’t change the fact that their current strategy is about as helpful in solving climate change as Kevin Rudd walking down to Bondi Beach and peeing in the wind and calling it a solution to climate change. The environment doesn’t give a damn about the spin game; if a solution that’s actually capable of doing something isn’t adopted, we’ll be up the creek without a paddle in my lifetime.
Socrates, there was a very good posting on Larvatus Prodeo 3 days ago called “Haiti: Now what”.
One of the comments was that the US buys excess crops from their farmers and dumps it in Haiti as aid. This makes it impossible for any local farming industry to to compete and survive.
Socrates-
I am unable to comment on the affect, if any, of any US aid policies, (I just don’t know) but agricultural production was certainly already in dire straits, as you deduced.
“Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere with 80% of the population living under the poverty line and 54% in abject poverty. Two-thirds of all Haitians depend on the agricultural sector, mainly small-scale subsistence farming, and remain vulnerable to damage from frequent natural disasters, exacerbated by the country’s widespread deforestation. While the economy has recovered in recent years, registering positive growth since 2005, four tropical storms in 2008 severely damaged the transportation infrastructure and agricultural sector.”
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html
*does the bat-signal*
Frank: have you got a link for those Northbridge crime stats you’ve posted a couple of times? I’m tangling with folk elsewhere on the net who reckon there’s ‘kid gangs’ roaming my fair suburb… I wanna throw those police PDF’s at them that show the arrests are about three quarters for drunk and disorderly. 😉