Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 54-46. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 57 per cent, his second lowest rating since the election. Labor are down three points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, which has gone to the Greens (up one to 12 per cent) and other (up two to 10 per cent) – the Coalition is steady on 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down six points to 52 per cent, disapproval is up two to 34 per cent and uncommitted is up four to 14 per cent. Also featured are Tony Abbott’s first personal ratings from Newspoll: at 40 per cent his approval rating is similar to Turnbull’s pre-Utegate, while his 35 per cent disapproval is slightly lower. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 57-25, down from 60-23 on Abbott’s debut in the final Newspoll last year and exactly where it was in the last poll before Utegate.

This chart shows the number of times Labor has recorded particular two-party results in the 48 Newspolls conducted since the 2007 election, which places the latest poll among Labor’s five weakest results:

newspoll0810

Today has also seen the first Essential Research survey of the new season which has Labor’s lead at 56-44, down from 57-43 on December 21 and at the lower end of Essential’s usual range. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 55 per cent is the lowest yet recorded by Essential, although his 33 per cent disapproval is two points lower than the November 30 survey. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved slightly on his December 14 debut, his approval up three to 37 per cent and disapproval up one to 36 per cent. Further questions find respondents optimistic about economic prospects, though less so than late last year (note the stunning turnaround on this measure from early to late last year).

Note of caution: Possum has observed that “when you look over the history of polls that happen in the Christmas/New Year period going back forever, you find them being more ‘all over the place’ than you tend to find at any other period (with the possible exception of Easter)”. Not sure how late into January this applies.

Also:

• Karen Brown, chief-of-staff to WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful state election candidate for Mount Lawley, has scotched suggestions she will run for the marginal Liberal federal seat of Cowan. The West Australian has reported party state executive member Alex Banzic, who is “understood to work for Melbourne-based EG property group as an investment manager”, is the only nominee so far, although it last week reported staffer Sam Roe as a possible entrant.

• The Northern Star reports Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout has won the local ballot for Liberal preselection in the north coast New South Wales federal seat of Richmond, although there remains the formality of endorsement by the state executive. The Liberals have never held the seat, and have not contested it since 1996, although its increasingly urban character is such that they would be as likely to win it as the Nationals if it returned to the conservative fold. Labor’s Justine Elliot has held the seat since defeating Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004. The Nationals candidate will be Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock.

• The Esperance Express names Ian Bishop, former adviser to state government ministers Kim Chance and John Bowler (the latter now an independent aligned with the Nationals), as Labor’s candidate to run against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor.

• The ABC reports Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro and New South Wales Farmers Association executive councillor Mark Horan have nominated for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which Labor’s Steve Whan retained in 2007 by a margin of 6.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  3. [wuick?]

    err what was I saying about a preview box?

    not much of a change, esp since Rudd has been prettymuch AWOL for a month.

    It’s the pre-season comp – Round One starts Feb 2

  4. Somebody must have tipped William off early tonight.

    I can just see La Triolio and little Joe on ABC tomorrow morning – there’ll be big smiles all round. Their boy is making huge headway!! or that’s how they’ll see it.

  5. i thought peoples could simple skip my posts , and then they hav no issue as i hav never aked anyone to readmy posts , except th doggy “th bitch” so pete can get educatd into our worlds

    now Don , diff subject

    “I have never seen such bad board software, and I’ve been on a lot of boards…There should be a HELP page link close to the comment box.

    i’m it Don , ‘resident help’ Unlike othr sub class auto boards you been on , here you get reel indiv personal help here about computors

  6. [“While Labor would comfortably win an election on that basis with an improved majority, Mr Rudd’s rating as better Prime Minister has also dropped from 60 per cent to 57 per cent.”]
    I’m sure Rudd is shaking in his boots.

  10. It just shows what happens when you go on holidays and leave the field open for the opposition. Even then they’d be done in an election on those figures, poor sods.

  11. [It’s funny how the federal opposition consistently polls better than their attrocious Victorian counterparts.]
    Pat, on those figures Labor would increase its majority. You call that better? I expect the state Libs will cut a small hole in Labor’s majority in Victoria.

  12. Christ it’s excuses galore from the Labor Hacks tonight… Possum and Gary fight for first dibs.

    It’s pretty clear it will be hard to beat Rudd in the first term, heck has there ever been a Prime Minister tossed out after one term?

    But these Labor hackery posts everytime a bad newspoll comes out is making me psychically sick.

  13. [Unlike othr sub class auto boards you been on , here you get reel indiv personal help here about computors]

    Hear, hear Ron.

    Agree, GB – no sleep will be lost tonight by Kev & Co and I’m off too. Night all.

  15. [But these Labor hackery posts everytime a bad newspoll comes out is making me psychically sick.]
    This poll is only bad news for you. AS it don’t rate mate.
    Spew away old son.

  16. TTH

    It’s not a bad Newspoll – it’s just another in in a quite stable (and therefore predictable) series.
    You should spend some time with Possum some day.

  17. [But these Labor hackery posts everytime a bad newspoll comes out is making me psychically sick.]

    Well bugger off then. No one is forcing you to stay.

  19. We had a 57-25 PPM Newspoll in June ’09. The 2PP was 53-47.

    This poll is on the lower end but yet to break any new ground. I await the inevitable 52, 51, and the dreaded 50.

    God how I hate Abbott.

  20. [You should spend some time with Possum some day.]

    Yeah and listen to him tell me how the Tampa arrived in 2002 and other false hoods probably over a latte and a danish.

    I’ll pass thanks. The worst type of “statician” is one with an agenda.

  21. [i’m it Don , ‘resident help’ Unlike othr sub class auto boards you been on , here you get reel indiv personal help here about computors]

    Ron

    even you could not help troothy,PY and assorted ne’er do wells.

    ps as for the knockers and snidesnipers they are just jealous they aint got your lingo

  23. TTH,

    With the notable exception of the last NSW Galaxy poll, which was essentially clogged with leftards frothing at the prospect of a ‘comeback’ for the Keneally / Tripodi / Obeid government, posts on bad ALP polling trypically remain quiet on this blog.

    Possum will most likely ignore it altogether, instead preferring to pontificate on his favourite pet topic – the calculator molestation of Andrew Bolt – with his silly little band of sycophants and fools.

  26. “Ron even you could not help troothy,PY and assorted ne’er do wells.

    ps as for the knockers and snidesnipers they are just jealous they aint got your lingo”

    but but Gus , i will try to help thems , as my mate Poly said i hav warm hart for all

  27. Ron

    [ “Ron even you could not help troothy,PY and assorted ne’er do wells.
    ………
    but but Gus , i will try to help thems……….. ]

    Good luck with that one !
    😆 😆 :devil:

  28. [ Rocket Rocket
    Posted Friday, January 15, 2010 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    I believe Newspoll will do their first Federal poll for the year this weekend.

    My predictions

    Liberal 35, National 4, (Coalition 39) – Labor 41, Green 12, Others 8
    TPP : Coalition 46 – 54 Labor
    Preferred PM : Rudd 57 : Abbott 25

    “The Australian” will love it!]

    No inside info – just a lucky guess!

  29. [TTH,

    With the notable exception of the last NSW Galaxy poll, which was essentially clogged with leftards frothing at the prospect of a ‘comeback’ for the Keneally / Tripodi / Obeid government, posts on bad ALP polling trypically remain quiet on this blog.

    Possum will most likely ignore it altogether, instead preferring to pontificate on his favourite pet topic – the calculator molestation of Andrew Bolt – with his silly little band of sycophants and fools.]

    Post of the Thread Winner.

    I do love the thought pattern of these posters though that some how, because Labor won one election somehow this completely negates everything Howard did for the last 11 years.

    Maybe… just maybe… the punters agreed with most of what Howard did, but he was getting tiring and his last term with Workchoices was a death knell.

    The country hasn’t signed up for the leftwing express just yet fella’s.

  30. oh dear, you cant leave this place for few days and then the Rudd’s honeymoon is truly over and Abbott knocking on the Lodge’s frontdoor. Hara-kiri time fellow hacks.

  31. [The country hasn’t signed up for the leftwing express just yet fella’s.]

    Neither has Kevin Rudd or the Labor party. Which is why he (and they) will win this year and keep on winning.

    It always amuses me that the coalition types continue to think that their battle with labor is a contest to the death against socialism, leftyism, and political correctness. Labor doesn’t touch these things, and hasn’t for years!

    Labor is the ultimate centrist, populist, power-maintaining machine. There is no principle they won’t jettison if they feel it will be to their advantage. The only thing that gets rid of governments like this one is time and spin-fatigue.

    We won’t see another coalition government until next decade, no matter how The Australian tries to spin the newspolls.

  32. Just for the sake of keeping up to date the Illawarra Mercury reports:-
    The Illawarra Connection will start the new year the way it left off the last, with a high-profile guest speaker slotted in for the first dinner meeting.
    Cheryl Kernot will talk to Illawarra’s key business leaders on February 2 about a changing social landscape, from charity to social enterprise.
    The former Democrats leader is now director of Social Enterprise at the University of NSW Centre for Social Impact.

  34. Truthy

    Just for you a letter published in the Illawarra Mercury:-

    Australian taxpayers are to be called on again to fund costs and security for another foreign freeloader with the coming arrival of Prince William of Britain.
    Why should we prop up yet another of the travelling Windsor circus?
    Did not Britain in recent years declare Australia a foreign country?
    Shunt him to Christmas Island and let him join the queue.

    Truthy – now there is a campaign you could get your tooth into.

  35. The Finniss
    #31

    th only genune “left” Party is Labor , and evidense is runs on bords , Laws

    Now how many Laws hav th Greens brought into th HOR since 1996 ? , geeez nil

    Greens ar not a true ‘left’ Party representng workin familes , just a extremist selectiv far left opose anyting Party , that ordinary working people ignore in there milions

  36. Actually this isn’t a great result for the Coalition, considering that Rudd has been off the scene for Christmas/most of January & Abbott has pretty much had the field to himself. Also the MSM are pimping Abbott at every opportunity.
    I was honestly expecting something closer to 51-49.
    54-46 means an increased majority for Labor! Rudd will take that! 🙂

  37. So, this is the best the Liberals can do, with the media endlessly recycling the boat people stuff(meant to be their strength)?
    Truth Hurts: you ought to be worried! 😀

  39. IF abov 54/46 was just before Rudd desides on either a DD or 1/2 Senate electon , then stupid greens & Libs scare attacks in a single issue DD campaign may reduce 2 PPFmargin say anothr 1% ,he’d still win but would leave run risk wise going for a 1/2 Senate poll safer choise so its not single isue poll capaign AND his senate numbers gains likely beter than in a DD in that case

  40. Rudd won’t go to the election until August/September, it can be either a DD or just a normal election.
    The person who should be really worried right now is Obama. It looks like the Republicans will win the special senate election for Ted Kennedy’s old seat.

  41. hope you ar not relyin on Rasmusen Polls but I seen none too be honest , plus republicons only hav 14% rgisterd , need alot of Independants to switch and its been held over 50 years by th Kennedys Thats like takin Kooyong (Costello) seat

  43. Don @ # 701. previous thread

    You appear to think that coal fired power stations could somehow miraculously increase their efficiency to produce more power without a concomitant increase in GHG.
    If that is the case, you’re dreamin’. You better call in Mary McKillop.

    Whatever you are smoking up there in New England it must be pretty good stuff.

    Don, as you seem, shall we say distracted tonight could I suggest that you go back and read all the previous post and stop jumping to conclusions that have no place in this discussion.

    This was a hypothetical. The argument was put that there something essentially wrong with a system where if urban fires were prohibited, industry would take up the emission savings that such an action would produce. I pointed out that really there was no difference hence the made up figure of 12 Mil tonnes of emissions from urban wood fires (which came form another poster) and 100 Mil tonnes from industry making a made up total of 112 Mil tonnes.

    It subsequently turned out that I had misinterpreted the other argument.

    Your contribution from there was to say the least bizarre. As I said it was a hypothetical situation and you seem to rip the crutch out of your undies over assumptions that construed so we could to explain the points of our discussion.

    I am surprised that you have not come across analytical situations where items are held constant knowing quite well that in real life that would never happen. I know that I have encountered it a number of times and I would expect that most people would have as well.

    Just on your point about power stations “somehow miraculously increase their efficiency” could I ask you what would happen if tomorrow it the ETS scheme was starting up and a coal fired power station found that at the end of the reporting period it found that it had exceed it “allowed” emissions.

    Well don you should know that the power station has two (2) options. It can purchase credits on the market or it pays the “carbon tax” to the Government. It is this additional cost that is the incentive at the centre of the ETS so as to encourage industry to reduce their emissions. This is what would apply if we had an ETS scheme working now and clearly (and you should have realised) this is what would happen in the little example we were talking about.

    For you to contemplate such a conclusion as you did suggest that you were really out for a stir or something was amiss with your medication. Maybe a little less or whatever you smoke would not go astray or maybe a nice soothing cuppa would be of help.

  44. Diogenes @ # 708 714 previous thread

    I was saying that if we use wood burnings health concerns as a reason for banning it then we should ban cigs well before then. But we won’t.

    Agreed

    As I mentioned in an earlier post the tobacco industry has no redeeming features at all.

    However, I have to admit that if “fags” were banned the illegal market would go gangbusters.

    On the topic of useless industries, I heard Fielding on radio this morning saying that Rudd has the power under the Corporations Act to reduce pokies in clubs and pubs. He said that Rudd has said he is concerned about pokies gambling but has failed to do anything about it.

    I would like to see a report on this from a “legal eagle” before I would support Senators Fielding’s view. You would think that if gambling fell within the preview of the Commonwealth they would be the ones taxing it.

    I have to admit that I don’t have any time for senator Fielding and until I have sighted something supporting his contention I must assume that he is in error as he usually is.

    I would suggest too that if you thought it would be hard to stamp out smoking then you would it much harder to stamp out the pokies.

  45. Don @ # 714 previous thread

    I try to say what I mean and mean what I say. If you are different, that’s your problem.

    The trouble here Don is that you are talking out of an orifice other than your mouth.

    You come in part way through on a discussion and jump straight in making incorrect and irrelevant assumptions.

    You the justify this with this rubbish above as if this somehow absolves you of at least finding out what the hell we were talking about let alone any semblance of good manners.

    This mantra above is nothing but an excuse for being rude and for taking short cuts.

    Before you can say what you mean and mean what you say you had better first find out what you are talking about.

  46. Ratsar
    #43

    I understand what you are saying Replasing urban wood burning wont reduce co2 if coal takes up th slack

    Believe from memory th thread started with a German crowd poorly rating oz , its analasis in many ways of ratng was faulty byth way , it listd all EU Countrys indiv to make th bottom Countrys whoever they were like China , oz , Canada & USA look bad at around 60th plase , PRENDING th EU has no comon ETS and they hav not rated that comon EU ETS !

    thens that mob also weighted there ‘class’ heavily against existin big emiters ,ensuring they always had to well down list without reely looking at what Countrys ar ofering NOW for 2020 against 1990 levels , THAT is what th IPCCC want to get 2 degree stability

    then we found tha tGerman mob EXCLUDED ‘credits’ that may apply eg for oz but not to thems

    and tink thats where th wood burning come up as an EXAMPLE

    that example then went back & forths about oz wood burnng

    then there were so many posts made from then to later tody inbetween , and we ended up about co2 and cool co2 Maybe people lost tracks on th pathways

    but i understod your point as was at start

    which of couse leads to th ETS , urban wood or coal still is co2 , a ETS target and a cap guaranteeing co2 mitigaton , allowin then certainty of investmet by business NOW to pour 000,s of millions in long term risk into R E plans & onstreem enegy power replasement for fossils, and this later point is what Greens do not undrstand why an ETS is pre requisite to that an so not undrstand how vandlistoc to CC mitigaton in oz there ETS rejecton reely is

    and fact per pools both Greens critisism & Abbotts scare Tax has colapsed suport for an ETS , makes ever geting an ETS now much less likely , a further CC sin’ they misundrtand , as thems concentrat on a 25% figure that itself does nothing for CC

  47. #31,

    Get off it. Labor is without a doubt one of the most inept and self-serving major political parties in the western world.

    Rudd pretty much encapsulates everything that is wrong with that sacred party of yours. Vacuous, intellectually unimpressive, void of any sort of philisophical direction and driven with spin.

  48. In the stinking hot west, the Liberal government have sulkily agreed to pay half the cost of propping up the wheatbelt rail network they privatised a decade ago, after the operator went bust. They want the federal govt to come up with the other half, which I imagine comes straight out of that ‘nation building fund’ or whatever the spin phrase for it was.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/18/2795330.htm

  49. Ron #41.

    The spin that the Massachuesetts Senate election is “too close to call” may be just that – a PR exercise to make sure people actually get out there and vote, rather than be apathetic expecting a Democratic win.
    http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/01/election_to_fill_ted_kennedys.html

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6991080.ece

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/15/AR2010011504069.html

  50. BH@4:

    [Somebody must have tipped William off early tonight.]

    My thoughts too – or William is a very fast typist!

    [I can just see La Triolio and little Joe on ABC tomorrow morning – there’ll be big smiles all round. Their boy is making huge headway!! or that’s how they’ll see it.]

    Keep ’em thinking that. They’ll push the envelope even further, and it will embolden Nick Minchin and Barnaby Joyce into further flights of fancy.

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