Morgan: 59-41

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of Tony Abbott’s Liberal leadership covers the last two weekends of polling, and it fails to replicate the encouraging results for Abbott in Morgan’s two earlier small-sample phone polls. Labor’s primary vote is up two points on Malcolm Turnbull’s last poll to 49 per cent, while the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 58.5-41.5 to 59-41.

Festive preselection action:

• Former Davis Cup tennis player John Alexander has won the Liberal preselection for Bennelong, having earlier tried and failed in Bradfield. Despite predictions of a close contest, the Sydney Morning Herald reported the Left-backed Alexander had an easy first round win over local business executive Mark Chan, scoring 67 votes in the ballot of 120 preselectors. As the Herald tells it, “the right split and the hard right deserted Mr Chan”, although VexNews notes the seat is “not a centre of factional operations for either camp”. The also-rans were businessman Steve Foley and financial services director Melanie Matthewson.

• Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly has withdrawn his nomination for Labor preselection in the Perth northern suburbs federal seat of Cowan, after earlier being considered certain to get the gig. This comes in the wake of a Corruption and Crime Commission finding that Kelly had put himself at “risk” of misconduct through his relationship with Brian Burke. Burke presumably knew what he was doing when he subsequently endorsed Kelly, going on to say he had “sought my help on many occasions and I’ve always been available to assist him”. The West Australian reported the withdrawal was the product of a “mutual” decision reached after “a week of talks with Labor officials”, which included federal campaign committee chairman and Brand MP Gary Gray. Potential replacements named by The West are Dianne Guise and Judy Hughes, who respectively lost their local seats of Wanneroo and Kingsley at the state election last September. The ABC reports a decision is expected in mid-January.

• The Western Australian ALP has also confirmed Tim Hammond, Louise Durack and ECU history lecturer Bill Leadbetter as candidates for Swan, Stirling and Pearce.

• The NSW Liberals have selected incumbents Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Bill Heffernan to head their Senate ticket, reversing the order from 2004. The Coalition agreement reserves the third position for the Nationals – I am not aware of any suggestion their candidate will be anyone other than incumbent Fiona Nash. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Heffernan needed the backing of Tony Abbott to ward off challenges from David Miles, a public relations executive with Pfizer, and George Bilic, a Blacktown councillor.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes Left figurehead Anthony Albanese’s chutzpah in calling for the Macquarie preselection to be determined by rank-and-file party ballot, after the role he played in imposing numerous candidates elsewhere as a member of the party’s national executive. Albanese reportedly believes Left candidate Susan Templeman would win a local ballot, although the earlier mail was that the Right’s Adam Searle had the numbers and it was the Left who wanted national executive intervention.

• Final Liberal two-party margin from the Bradfield by-election: 14.8 per cent. From Higgins: 10.2 per cent. Respective turnouts were 81.51 per cent and 79.00 per cent, compared with 80.12 per cent at the Mayo by-election, 87.41 per cent in Lyne and 89.68 per cent in Gippsland. Question: if the results have been declared, why hasn’t the AEC published preference distributions?

• VexNews reports Saturday’s Liberal preselection for the Victorian state seat of Ripon was a clear win for the unsuccessful candidate from 2006, Vic Dunn, who my records tell me is “the local inspector at Maryborough”. Dunn reportedly scored 53 votes against 26 for Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert and preselection perennial Louise Staley and four for local winery owner John van Beveren. Joe Helper holds the seat for Labor on a maergin of 4.3 per cent.

• The Berwick Star reports that Lorraine Wreford, the newly elected mayor of Casey, refused to confirm or deny reports she lodged a nomination for Liberal preselection in the state seat of Mordialloc last Friday. Janice Munt holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 3.5 per cent.

• The Country Voice SA website reports that one of its regular contributors, former SA Nationals president Wilbur Klein, will be the party’s candidate for Flinders at the March state election. The seats was held by the party prior to 1993, when it was won by its now-retiring Liberal member Liz Penfold.

• On Tuesday, The West Australian provided further data from the 400-sample Westpoll survey discussed a few posts ago, this time on attitudes to an emissions trading scheme. Forty per cent wanted it adopted immediately, down from 46 per cent two months ago. However, there was also a fall in the number wanting the government to wait until other countries committed to targets, from 47 per cent to 43 per cent. The remainder “ favoured other options to cut emissions or did not know”.

• Paul Murray of The West Australian offers some interesting electoral history on the occasion of the passing of former Liberal-turned-independent state MP Ian Thompson:

Shortly after the State election in February 1977, allegations began to emerge from both sides of politics about dirty deeds in the seat of Kimberley. Liberal sitting member Alan Ridge beat Labor’s Ernie Bridge on preferences by just 93 votes. The Liberals were the first to strike, claiming Labor was manipulating Aboriginal voters, but the move backfired badly. A subsequent Court of Disputed Returns case turned up scathing evidence of a deliberate Liberal campaign to deny Aboriginals the vote using underhand tactics and the election result was declared void on November 7.

Returning officers in the Kimberley for years had allowed illiterate Aboriginals to use party how-to-vote cards as an indication of their voting intention. What became apparent later was that Labor had put hundreds of Aboriginal voters on the roll and generally mobilised the indigenous community. The Liberals flew a team of young lawyers up from Perth to act as scrutineers at polling booths, with a plan to stop illiterate voters. The Court government pressured the chief electoral officer to instruct returning officers in the Kimberley to challenge illiterate voters and not accept their how-to-vote cards.

The court case turned up a letter of thanks from Mr Ridge to a Liberal Party member, who stood as an independent, saying “a third name on the ballot paper created some confusion among the illiterate voters and there is no doubt in my mind that it played a major part in having me re-elected”. Mr Ridge’s letter said that unless the Electoral Act was changed to make it more difficult for illiterate Aboriginals to cast their votes, the Liberals would not be able to win the seat.

Two days after the court ordered a new election, premier Sir Charles introduced in the Legislative Assembly a Bill to do just that. How-to-vote cards could not be used, nor could an instruction of a vote for just one candidate. Labor went ballistic, saying no illiterate voter would meet the test.

What transpired over nine hours was one of the most bitter debates ever seen in the WA Parliament and the galvanising of a new breed of Labor head kickers – Mr Burke, Mal Bryce, Bob Pearce and Arthur Tonkin, who came to power six years later. On November 10, it became apparent that the government was in trouble when one of the four National Country Party members not in the coalition Cabinet, Hendy Cowan, said he opposed the Bill because it disenfranchised all illiterate voters. When it came to the vote, the four NCP members crossed the floor and the maverick Liberal member for Subiaco, Dr Tom Dadour, abstained. The numbers split 25-25.

From the Speaker’s chair, Ian Thompson calmly noted that the law said when a Court of Disputed Returns ordered a by-election it had to be held under the same conditions as the original poll. If the Government wanted to amend the Electoral Act, it should do so after the by-election.

“Therefore I give my casting vote with the ‘Noes’ and the Bill is defeated,” he said. Hansard unusually recorded applause.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,931 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  2. I got a camppaign email from TetUp that won’t please Rudd. It criticises his bullying of Pacific Island nations into accepting an agreement for 2 degrees of warming, not 1.5 degrees
    http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/StandUpToRudd

    Here is the text
    [What an inglorious day for Australia – thanks to our shameful bullying of our Pacific Island neighbours, Australia has been awarded the (un)prestigious ‘Fossil of the Day’ Award at the Copenhagen conference.

    At a time when Australia should be leading, we’ve been recognised as the worst country in the world for actively seeking a bad outcome. What’s more, we’ve been singled out for trying to bully vulnerable nations into agreeing to targets that would see them literally wiped off the map.

    It’s time we stood up to bullies like this. Kevin Rudd has been phoning Pacific leaders to get them to sign away their very survival. Let’s stand up for our friends and call Kevin Rudd with a message that we support the Pacific nations’ call for a treaty that keeps them on the map:

    http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/StandUpToRudd

    It’s pretty simple: Pacific nations are calling for a treaty that limits global warming to 1.5 degrees, the maximum they can survive. It’s what all the scientists are calling for too. Australia is outrageously trying to strong-arm them into a treaty for a 2 degree rise – which would see them sunk out of existence.

    Is this the Australia we want to be? The bad guy? Place a phonecall to Kevin Rudd, like he’s been doing to our Pacific friends, and tell him it’s not just our island neighbours who stand behind the science – we all want a treaty that delivers a safe climate:

    http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/StandUpToRudd

    If you’d listened to Kevin Rudd’s speech this morning, you’d have thought he actually cares about climate change. He’s saying one thing in public, and then working furiously to undermine efforts for a good treaty behind the scenes. Phone him today before his negotiations wipe Pacific nations off the map.

    Thanks for standing up to bullying,
    The GetUp team ]

  4. ‘Meaningful deal’ reached at Copenhagen climate summit

    Key states in Copenhagen have reached a “meaningful agreement” in climate change talks, a US official says.

    No country was “entirely satisfied” with the deal, but it was a “historic step forward,” the official added.

    The deal was not enough to fully tackle climate change in the future, but was an important first step, he said.

    The two-week summit in the Danish capital had been deadlocked on Friday evening as world leaders tried to hammer out a deal.

  5. Socrates@98:

    [Regarding the poll, I find it hard to believe 59/41. If it is true Labor can thank Barnaby Joyce. But more likley I would have expected a status quo around 56/44 to continue.]

    I agree. Sounds like a rogue poll to me.

    But if it is borne out by subsequent polls, Tony Abbott will not be a happy chappy. Or at least the people who put him there will not be happy.

  6. I consider myself to be an optimistic realist. If there is a deal then I’d expect it to be portrayed like this:

    [No country was “entirely satisfied” with the deal, but it was a “historic step forward,” the official added.

    The deal was not enough to fully tackle climate change in the future, but was an important first step, he said.]

  8. If the “deal” locks in everyone for a real commitment to do something with CC, then it’s a good first step and a progress from Kyoto.

    It will bad news for Abbott politically because CC/ETS will be on agenda all thru 2010 as an important issue that is embraced by the whole world. It will allow Rudd to keep on saying it is a global issue that still requires solution and contribution from Australia.

  9. [It will bad news for Abbott politically because CC/ETS will be on agenda all thru 2010 as an important issue that is embraced by the whole world]

    Especially given that tool is on the record as stating that climate change is “absolute crap”.

  10. Caff break from current realities; just how gullible are Aussies? God is still tops but angels rate well
    Blockquote>The surprising findings from an Age Nielsen poll show Australia is a credulous nation, willing to mix and match religious faith with belief in other phenomena.

    Although we are widely considered a secular and largely atheistic people, nearly half the population believes in psychic powers such as extrasensory perception and 41 per cent believe in astrology.
    And UFOs …. (But, according to a number of on-line polls, not the Internet filter)

    Anyway, it’s certainly not your average Age read. It’s Saturday. Up here, we’re being rained on! HOORAH! The black ants (They were Argentinian, that only baits boron kill. Pity Dr Seuss wasn’t around to versify OH’s Dalek impersonation) are on their way out.

    Merry Christmas to those who are signing out for the Holiday Season, and a New Year to top your wildest dreams! Have fun. Stay safe!

  11. don # 105

    Socrates@98:

    “Regarding the poll, I find it hard to believe 59/41. If it is true Labor can thank Barnaby Joyce. But more likley I would have expected a status quo around 56/44 to continue.”

    I agree. Sounds like a rogue poll to me.

    OTOH, if you take each of Tony’s front bench & list the Aussie voters each has alienated BIGTIME … Andrews, Ruddock (you’ll need a long sheet of paper for them), Bronny Kerosene Baths … all the way to Mr People Skills himself: People Who Hate Welchers, Climate Action supporters, asbestos victims, women, anyone with loved ones or themselves sweating on stem-cell therapy solutions, workers, divorcees, gays & their family and friends, Masons, moderate RCs, moderate Aussies of any type, tolerant Aussies …

    Given what 2010s likely to bring, 59/41 starts to look good.

  12. From The Guardian’s live blog: (times are GMT)

    9.32pm: From our reporter Allegra Stratton with the UK delegation in Copenhagen. A Downing Street official says: “there’s been more movement this evening and we’re hopeful a deal can be done tonight. Final details are still being nailed down but we are now confident we can get the two degree target agreed.”

    9.29pm: UN is saying at an EU press conference will start soon.

  13. Opposition against the government’s planned internet censorship is growing, including:

    Google
    http://google-au.blogspot.com/2009/12/our-views-on-mandatory-isp-filtering.html

    Reporters Without Borders
    http://www.rsf.org/Open-letter-to-Australia-s-Prime.html

    Australian Library and Information Association
    http://www.alia.org.au/media.room/2009-12-16.html

    Former High Court judge, Justice Michael Kirby
    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/net-filters-thin-end-of-the-wedge-kirby-20091217-kyeu.html

    Plus many more prominent individuals and organisations.

    Those here who would otherwise automatically support any Labor policy, I suggest you think very carefully about the potential ramifications of what is a slippery worded proposal.

  15. [I agree. Sounds like a rogue poll to me.

    But if it is borne out by subsequent polls, Tony Abbott will not be a happy chappy. Or at least the people who put him there will not be happy.]

    Spartacus started out small.

  17. [ Spartacus started out small. ]

    It is starting to look like he might get his cross for christmas.

    By Easter at the latest though I reckon.

  18. [A commitment to turning the “Copenhagen Accord” into a legally binding treaty within a year was deleted from a draft of the text leaked last night. The draft also contained only vague language on the key issues of limiting the temperature increase to 2C and cutting global emissions by 50 per cent by 2050.]

    Looks like there won’t be anything legally binding and it will be business as usual with a few feel-good statements which don’t amount to a hill of beans.

  19. Why is everyone saying this is a rogue poll? Abbott is worse than Turnbull, esp his Night of the Living Dead Front Bench. He’s not even remotely credible as a PM. I doubt things will improve for him. The more he opens his mouth, the worse it’s going to get.

  21. Before the skeptics, like Diog, start jumping in and criticize this deal as a sold-out, betray, cowardice etc etc. They key thing is that the G2 is now inside the tent, not outside as previously, plus the other developing countries.

    At the end of the day, it is now recognised by the world CC is real and a global problem. For all its failings, COP15 has been a success. 😛

  23. Yep, it’s all gone to water because Kev didn’t have his ETPS scheme passed in time by the Senate. Weren’t all the international leaders bemoaning this single factor? So now the anti-Green crusader bloggers here can blame the Greens for Copenhagen’s failings. Cue Frank, GG et al.

  25. Finns

    [For all its failings, COP15 has been a success. 😛 ]

    Yes Finns. It was a success if you measure success by Australia not having to anything more about CC than before the conference.

  27. Finns

    We told you Copenahagen would be a flop for months. We said there wouldn’t be a legally binding treaty that Australia would sign up to and reduce our emissions further.

    We were 100% right.

    You are going to have to come to grips with that for a loooong time.

  28. Copenhagen Accord is not legally binding. So Australia goes for the full 5% cut whilst fully knowing that it will totally ineffective in trying to limit warming to 2C?

  32. [They key thing is that the G2 is now inside the tent,]
    Really? But they can’t verify this by peeking or monitor that they remain in the tent. It looks like hot air contributing to further warming.

  33. Finns

    Wang Wang and Funi have special refrigerated rocks. They are completely immune to global warming. They’re the smartest animals on the planet. They didn’t care what happened at COP15.

  35. [Well, you have to hand it to him. Tone sure knows a vote puller when he sees one. ]
    Even the usual right wing comments are lacking in support. Will he survive to Easter?

  36. Gaff@130:

    [Well, you have to hand it to him. Tone sure knows a vote puller when he sees one. LOL]

    This is a sign of things to come in the most unlikely event that People Skills gets up at the next election:

    [BIBLE classes should be compulsory so children have a fundamental understanding of Christianity on leaving school, federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says.]

    This, in what is essentially a secular nation judging on church attendance.

  37. dave #117

    Spartacus started out small.

    It is starting to look like he might get his cross for christmas.

    By Easter at the latest though I reckon.

    Read all about it!
    Spartacus revolt: inspiration for the proletariat
    Arise ye workers from your slumbers

    So Our Tone’s joined the Spartacan league, has he? Here’s the Home Page for his School Net Spartacus Educational
    Yep, Folks! That wide red stripe down the Left doth carry a message!
    The peoples’ flag’s the deepest red
    Tis stained with blood of our martyred dead.
    Hear it & others @ The Red Flag

    OTOH, back in the Right Wing Bunker with Andrews, Barnaby, Bishops, Minchin, Robb and all,
    Was there a man dismay’d ?
    Not tho’ the [Liberals] knew
    Some one had blunder’d:
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do & die,
    Into Election10
    Rode …
    THE CHARGE OF THE LIGHT BRIGADE: THE AFTERMATH

    BTW Love the variation on the helmet!

  39. Diogs, negativity like that must be crippling. How do you cope?

    Fins, I can vaguely remember being on the same side of a debate as Diogs, but it must have been a lifetime ago. Back in the days when we had discussions rather than flame wars…
    I remember coming here because I got sick of the flame wars on Alternet. Oh well.

  40. TP,

    Thanks for the coverage last night. I was noticing. I spent till 4:30 this morning getting my wife’s laptop back up to speed after she had a new hard drive put in after a “no boot sector” crash. Firewall, Antivirus, LAN, Firefox, Eudora, Office, 28 Microsoft updates and various bits and pieces. Still need to get her to talk to our 2 printers.

  41. Yes Gaffhook, after berating Rudd for bringing religion into politics by doing a doorstop outside his church (quite breathtaking hypocrisy for RY486-man), Abbott now preaching that kids should read the bible

  44. Abbott wants to take us back to 1871 i.e. the year before the act that ensured government funded education is free and secular. Blimey, at least Howard was aiming for the 1950s as his preferred future for Australia.

  45. Yes Diogs has morphed into a pale imitation of GP. Copenhagen was always going to be interpreted to suit the bias of the commentator. It will be hailed as a success by some and a failure by others. Getting China and US into the tent as it were it was very important development IMO

  46. “Mr Sarkozy says Germany will host a new conference on climate change in six months in Bonn, to follow up the work of the Copenhagen summit.

    Under the accord, he said all countries – including China – would have to submit written plans for curbs in carbon dioxide emissions by January 2010.

    He said all countries had signed up for a plan to provide developing nations with $US100 billion a year in aid by 2020.Mr Obama described the document as a step towards drawing up a legally binding treaty.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/19/2776502.htm

    And now its on the Germany 2010. Its not as bad a flop as reported half a hour back, but its weak.

    Hey, its your legitimacy funeral, world political leaders. If you think you’ve done anyone a favour, you’re kidding yourselves.

    I predict a massive loss of legitimacy in all regimes, leading to a new global people-people politics. Take it out of the hands of these losers. We start shutting down the polluting sites ourselves through non-violent but immovable occupations.

    Hey carbon whores and apologists parading as our leaders: get knotted. Ultimately we decide, not you.

  47. I once had thoughts similar to TA’s.

    As a first year teacher, with a strong religious background (which I had already broken free from…) I was appalled when I asked my Year 10 class what the connection was between apples and sin in poetry and got a sea of blank looks.

    Impossible to understand that particular poem without at least some grasp of the Garden of Eden story. NONE of them appeared to have it.

    But they apparently all went on to live normal, decent lives (well, it’s a bit of an assumption – two of them have turned up in later life as ALP hacks!) unhampered apparently by their inability to analyse a poem and explain its symbolism.

    And I have to say, a generation of students onwards and it’s much the same.

    An understanding of the Bible might help you appreciate plays and poetry in more depth and may give you a deeper insight as to the development of our laws and culture, which are good things. But whether they’re necessary things is a different question altogether.

  48. Suggest, Dio, you get the latest from UK & Euro papers

    Latest photo of an annotated (?latest) version of the typed deal <a href=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment

  49. [And now its on the Germany 2010.]

    Which will mean that the argument in the Senate will now be that we should wait for Germany.

    How depressment.

  50. lefty e,

    It’s not all bad. At least the Greeny radicals can still shake their fists and continue to scream their meaningless armagheddinist rhetoric.

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