The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of Tony Abbott’s Liberal leadership covers the last two weekends of polling, and it fails to replicate the encouraging results for Abbott in Morgan’s two earlier small-sample phone polls. Labor’s primary vote is up two points on Malcolm Turnbull’s last poll to 49 per cent, while the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 58.5-41.5 to 59-41.
Festive preselection action:
• Former Davis Cup tennis player John Alexander has won the Liberal preselection for Bennelong, having earlier tried and failed in Bradfield. Despite predictions of a close contest, the Sydney Morning Herald reported the Left-backed Alexander had an easy first round win over local business executive Mark Chan, scoring 67 votes in the ballot of 120 preselectors. As the Herald tells it, “the right split and the hard right deserted Mr Chan”, although VexNews notes the seat is “not a centre of factional operations for either camp”. The also-rans were businessman Steve Foley and financial services director Melanie Matthewson.
• Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly has withdrawn his nomination for Labor preselection in the Perth northern suburbs federal seat of Cowan, after earlier being considered certain to get the gig. This comes in the wake of a Corruption and Crime Commission finding that Kelly had put himself at “risk” of misconduct through his relationship with Brian Burke. Burke presumably knew what he was doing when he subsequently endorsed Kelly, going on to say he had “sought my help on many occasions and I’ve always been available to assist him”. The West Australian reported the withdrawal was the product of a “mutual” decision reached after “a week of talks with Labor officials”, which included federal campaign committee chairman and Brand MP Gary Gray. Potential replacements named by The West are Dianne Guise and Judy Hughes, who respectively lost their local seats of Wanneroo and Kingsley at the state election last September. The ABC reports a decision is expected in mid-January.
• The Western Australian ALP has also confirmed Tim Hammond, Louise Durack and ECU history lecturer Bill Leadbetter as candidates for Swan, Stirling and Pearce.
• The NSW Liberals have selected incumbents Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Bill Heffernan to head their Senate ticket, reversing the order from 2004. The Coalition agreement reserves the third position for the Nationals – I am not aware of any suggestion their candidate will be anyone other than incumbent Fiona Nash. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Heffernan needed the backing of Tony Abbott to ward off challenges from David Miles, a public relations executive with Pfizer, and George Bilic, a Blacktown councillor.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes Left figurehead Anthony Albanese’s chutzpah in calling for the Macquarie preselection to be determined by rank-and-file party ballot, after the role he played in imposing numerous candidates elsewhere as a member of the party’s national executive. Albanese reportedly believes Left candidate Susan Templeman would win a local ballot, although the earlier mail was that the Right’s Adam Searle had the numbers and it was the Left who wanted national executive intervention.
• Final Liberal two-party margin from the Bradfield by-election: 14.8 per cent. From Higgins: 10.2 per cent. Respective turnouts were 81.51 per cent and 79.00 per cent, compared with 80.12 per cent at the Mayo by-election, 87.41 per cent in Lyne and 89.68 per cent in Gippsland. Question: if the results have been declared, why hasn’t the AEC published preference distributions?
• VexNews reports Saturday’s Liberal preselection for the Victorian state seat of Ripon was a clear win for the unsuccessful candidate from 2006, Vic Dunn, who my records tell me is “the local inspector at Maryborough”. Dunn reportedly scored 53 votes against 26 for Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert and preselection perennial Louise Staley and four for local winery owner John van Beveren. Joe Helper holds the seat for Labor on a maergin of 4.3 per cent.
• The Berwick Star reports that Lorraine Wreford, the newly elected mayor of Casey, refused to confirm or deny reports she lodged a nomination for Liberal preselection in the state seat of Mordialloc last Friday. Janice Munt holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 3.5 per cent.
• The Country Voice SA website reports that one of its regular contributors, former SA Nationals president Wilbur Klein, will be the party’s candidate for Flinders at the March state election. The seats was held by the party prior to 1993, when it was won by its now-retiring Liberal member Liz Penfold.
• On Tuesday, The West Australian provided further data from the 400-sample Westpoll survey discussed a few posts ago, this time on attitudes to an emissions trading scheme. Forty per cent wanted it adopted immediately, down from 46 per cent two months ago. However, there was also a fall in the number wanting the government to wait until other countries committed to targets, from 47 per cent to 43 per cent. The remainder “ favoured other options to cut emissions or did not know”.
• Paul Murray of The West Australian offers some interesting electoral history on the occasion of the passing of former Liberal-turned-independent state MP Ian Thompson:
Shortly after the State election in February 1977, allegations began to emerge from both sides of politics about dirty deeds in the seat of Kimberley. Liberal sitting member Alan Ridge beat Labor’s Ernie Bridge on preferences by just 93 votes. The Liberals were the first to strike, claiming Labor was manipulating Aboriginal voters, but the move backfired badly. A subsequent Court of Disputed Returns case turned up scathing evidence of a deliberate Liberal campaign to deny Aboriginals the vote using underhand tactics and the election result was declared void on November 7.
Returning officers in the Kimberley for years had allowed illiterate Aboriginals to use party how-to-vote cards as an indication of their voting intention. What became apparent later was that Labor had put hundreds of Aboriginal voters on the roll and generally mobilised the indigenous community. The Liberals flew a team of young lawyers up from Perth to act as scrutineers at polling booths, with a plan to stop illiterate voters. The Court government pressured the chief electoral officer to instruct returning officers in the Kimberley to challenge illiterate voters and not accept their how-to-vote cards.
The court case turned up a letter of thanks from Mr Ridge to a Liberal Party member, who stood as an independent, saying “a third name on the ballot paper created some confusion among the illiterate voters and there is no doubt in my mind that it played a major part in having me re-elected”. Mr Ridge’s letter said that unless the Electoral Act was changed to make it more difficult for illiterate Aboriginals to cast their votes, the Liberals would not be able to win the seat.
Two days after the court ordered a new election, premier Sir Charles introduced in the Legislative Assembly a Bill to do just that. How-to-vote cards could not be used, nor could an instruction of a vote for just one candidate. Labor went ballistic, saying no illiterate voter would meet the test.
What transpired over nine hours was one of the most bitter debates ever seen in the WA Parliament and the galvanising of a new breed of Labor head kickers – Mr Burke, Mal Bryce, Bob Pearce and Arthur Tonkin, who came to power six years later. On November 10, it became apparent that the government was in trouble when one of the four National Country Party members not in the coalition Cabinet, Hendy Cowan, said he opposed the Bill because it disenfranchised all illiterate voters. When it came to the vote, the four NCP members crossed the floor and the maverick Liberal member for Subiaco, Dr Tom Dadour, abstained. The numbers split 25-25.
From the Speaker’s chair, Ian Thompson calmly noted that the law said when a Court of Disputed Returns ordered a by-election it had to be held under the same conditions as the original poll. If the Government wanted to amend the Electoral Act, it should do so after the by-election.
“Therefore I give my casting vote with the ‘Noes’ and the Bill is defeated,” he said. Hansard unusually recorded applause.
GG
Stop trying to start a flame war!
The petals will not be amused
😉
True GG, good news is massive loss of cred for business as usual carbon apologist centrism. They slink home in shame, to hide from their electorates and constituencies.
Massive global green vote spike in democracies.
It aint over. We’ll push them again in 2010.
Oh, and one bright spot: the REDD deal was actually a good outcome.
The Copenhagen meeting has produced a result – as Obama says, it’s a start. The process of understanding and responding to CC is going to take several hundred years. It is absurd to think that after 20 years of inaction, the whole issue could be dealt with in 15 days at one very badly mismanaged and over-crowded event.
At least we have a start, which is a lot more than Australia has been able to come up with so far. And the pressure is still on.
Obama is a powerhouse. We should all be thankful we have him as POTUS…….
What’s with John the Evangelist’s End of the World, eh, GG?
In Germany, it’s Ragnarök / Ragnarök Götterdämmerung. (Here play Siegfried’s funeral march to get into the mood).
And if you think Oz greens are a tad over-the-top, believe me, they’re moderation personified compared to Deutchland’s!
lefty e,
Like Clive Hamilton in Higgins?
“The people united are usually at the football”.
polyquats
[Diogs, negativity like that must be crippling. How do you cope?]
Actually, it’s not negativity when you are right. It’s called realism. The real world happened at Copenhagen.
First we had Abbott as Spartacus, now Peter van Onselen tells us Joyce is the Barbarian at the gates:
[I was reminded last week by a senior Liberal that Joyce wasn’t exactly part of the Coalition during its dominant days. He was around only (and, arguably, partly responsible) for the decline of Rome, the downfall of the once united Howard government after its stunning 2004 election victory.]
[Under the accord, he said all countries – including China – would have to submit written plans for curbs in carbon dioxide emissions by January 2010.
He said all countries had signed up for a plan to provide developing nations with $US100 billion a year in aid by 2020.Mr Obama described the document as a step towards drawing up a legally binding treaty.”]
oh goody, we need the ETS passed before Bonn Jun10. The election is Sept, perfect. Abbott Rosary tightens further.
25% swing GG? No, prossibly not quite as much as Clive. Be nice tho! 🙂
OPT,
Just responding to lefty e’s rubbish.
You saying our ratbags are not world class?
lefty e
Oh goody.
When do we need action?
Now!
When are we going to get it?
Only when it meets the requirements of the Greens!
Pushing out a decision six months pushes everything else out six months too. So the start up date will move from 2011 to 2012.
This will allow further prevarication, with opposers of both blue and green colouring saying that, as nothing starts before 2012, let’s take our time and get it right.
I always thought urgent action meant that you had to take action, like, you know, urgently.
Obviously if we can afford to delay it again, it’s not as urgent as I’ve been lead to believe.
Briefly, the usual suspects in the MSM will spin this against Rudd. But he remains in a very strong position on CC. The Greens will say the deal didnt go far enough and the opposition will say there should be no deal…I wait with baited breath for the oppositions response now we have had copenhagen. I’m sure it will be “wait until after the german talks”
BB the intense overrreaction of the usual suspects in the MSM is surely driven by the fact that they know Abbott is a dud and is their form of damage control
Bushfire Bill
Abbott the Hun! Priceless!
PS It is A the H, stealing Hannibal’s long-held title role!
You need us on that wall GG. 🙂
So is it Germany next? Someone said it might be Mexico.
PPS: Barnaby’s only one of The Hun’s mad headkickers. Someone in my aged Senior-moment prone brain (especially thi morning) is just which of A’s nutters.
Diogs,
Rudd said it was Mexico.
Maybe they changed their mind and tried to get it close to Munich just for all the rhetorical flourishes and editorials comparing the last big Munich conference.
Finns
In a political sense it is great that the US and China are finally talking to each other seriously about CC. But that is all – the talk has started. Still no agreement, certainly not a binding one.
This is Nopenhagen. No binding agreement. Not even a non-binding concensus, because everyone is attaching their own strategy to the appendix, not an overall framework. Sorry, if you read back to the oobjectives bjectives of Copenhagen, that is failure.
Lefty e,
“All in all your just another dick on the wall”?
59/41….I continue to be astonished that 41% of voters can favour the chaotic reactionaries of the Liberal/Notional coalition. They are completely untrustworthy and are in an un-winnable position. Abbott’s first statement after election was to promise a fight. This may be the rhetoric his Labor-hating party members want to hear, but it will repel voters, who prefer competent management, reasoned policies, calm talk and consistent, secure and reassuring conduct. 41% – generous to Abbott.
Gosh, Frank…I’ve only just read Conroy’s media release.
You’re right, it does show that a lot of the arguments made against the filter here are based on misinformation.
I’m surprised they would go back to Europe again given that one of the major rifts was between the developed and developing countries. I would have thought Mexico was a better symbolic venue and as GG says, anything near Munich will have a few unfortunate comparisons made.
Gosh, Frank…I’ve only just read Possum’s article.
You’re right, it does show that a lot of the arguments made for the filter here are based on misinformation.
Zoomster
[You’re right, it does show that a lot of the arguments made against the filter here are based on misinformation.]
Like what exactly?
Nup, not going there again. Just surprised by it and a bit cross with myself for not reading it earlier.
z
What do you make of the Copenhagen outcome?
[Actually, it’s not negativity when you are right. It’s called realism. ]
Diog, if you have any bone of realism in you, you will know this kind of thing does not happen in one go.
The Free Trade or Liberalization Talk started some 60 years ago and the latest Doha Round is still going. It has not been perfect and it drags on and on.
In the mean time, trade goes on and mostly underpinned by the spirit of free trade or less protection. and one of the key outcome, Globalisation, everyone agrees that it been good for all countries.
I bet your beautiful children say to you everyday: “Dad, dont be so negative and a shit-stirrer”. They have more wisdom than you 😛
[now Peter van Onselen tells us Joyce is the Barbarian at the gates:]
The Chinese had and will crush the Barbarian at the gates.
Diog
only know what I’ve read here. And haven’t read enough to make any comment.
PS Just re read possum’s post. It mainly deals with the electoral consequences and quite rightly refers people right at the start to the media release and associated info. It doesn’t mount arguments against the filter, although poss’s views are very clear. So your rebuttal to me above is silliness.
Zoomster
[Nup, not going there again. Just surprised by it and a bit cross with myself for not reading it earlier.]
Ha ha ha, you phoney.
There’s nothing in tht document that conradicts our argument.
Zoomster
[So your rebuttal to me above is silliness.]
There was nothing to rebutt. You didn’t actually have an argument.
Finns
Actually they say “Dad, you were right again.”
This is not “one go”. These talks have been going on since Margaret Thatcher tried to get something done. There have been endless meetings. I’m sure we will eventually get something but I said we would get nothing at Copenhagen, which meant we didn’t need an ETS in place before Copenhagen.
z
Possum has written a few pieces on the Conroy filter.
[And speaking of Computer illiterate parents, I’ve heard a real doozy of a solution from the Freedom Fighters – Install Linux – – your average parent has problems with Windows XP – and you expect Linux to be easier for them ??]
Actually that is the good solution for protecting young kids from Adult content (which the ISP filter will not do):
Ubuntu + Dansguardian + non-privileged accounts.
Linux has come a long way as a user-friendly OS.
You can escalate the hardening of your system as required.
There is the added bonus of getting your kids familiar with the OS that they will be using in their working life…
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 9:51 am | Permalink
An understanding of the Bible might help you appreciate plays and poetry in more depth and may give you a deeper insight as to the development of our laws and culture, which are good things. But whether they’re necessary things is a different question altogether.]
You do need to read the old testament past genesis even it does mean facing the nasty behavior of the god portrayed, and the primitive behavior of the tribes. It is also helpful to have a look the texts from the other great religions.
Diog
[Actually, it’s not negativity when you are right. It’s called realism. The real world happened at Copenhagen.]
That would be a fair enough argument if Copenhagen was the only thing you were being negative about.
But you have been negative about just about everything for quite a while now.
A disappointing if not totally unexpected outcome in Copenhagen.
In the end China couldn’t bring itself to come to the party in the way required (I gather) and I gather after W Clinton’s effort with Kyoto that ‘legally’ binding agreements are anathema to the American Congress.
This will be seen as an historical and important phase in the ‘saving’ of the planet for human habitation only if it leads to something else more concrete and effective or that nations actually do attend to the spirit of the ‘accord’ and together exceed expectations. Its important history will be told in hind site.
But it has been quite important in a number of ways.
That we have China, USA and all other countries in the tent of agreeing something must be done about CC (excluding Canada) surely now most totally marginalise and sideline the CC deniers and skeptics. Their voice as it is will be from here on seen as fringe. Bad luck Bolt and Fielding.
It also for the first time puts all countries now including the USA and China in the tent of recognising this is a critical problem that requires actions and results.
So I guess you could see it as a phase shift, if it turns out that way.
Obama does not have to rely on Congress passing his CC bills though that is obviously the preferred method. As mentioned the other night Obama does have the option of pursuing targets through the EPA.
So we will know how serious he is about this if he is willing to take this path should the Senate block his bills.
As I posted last night.
[Obama has a mechanism to meet any promise made regarding cuts through the EPA. And it appears the GOP cannot block this method without getting majorities in the HOR, Senate and also the POTUS i.e impossible to block Obama.
EPA: Greenhouse Gases Are Danger To Human Health, Must Be Regulated
The EPA said that the scientific evidence surrounding climate change clearly shows that greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of the American people” and that the pollutants – mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels – should be regulated under the Clean Air Act.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/07/epa-greenhouse-gases-are_n_382460.html
[Republicans Work to Block EPA Carbon Rules
Getting the proposal passed will be a heavy lift, since Republicans are a minority in both the House and Senate. The resolution requires the approval of both chambers and President Barack Obama. ]
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/12/17/us/politics/politics-us-climate-epa-republicans.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=epa%20carbon&st=cse
I didn’t say ‘rebutting the argument’. He rebutted my statement. I’m rebutting his rebuttal.
Astro, given the number of times you have told me that you refuse to engage with me, why can’t you accept that sometimes I really can’t be bothered engaging with you? Don’t be so precious.
As I said before, I wanted to get my head around the issue and the arguments around that. I’ve done that to my satisfaction (sorry if it isn’t yours). I’ve reached a position where I know all that I need to and have tested the arguments I need to test.
It wasn’t an issue that interested me more than academically to begin with.
polyquats
I’m sure I was realistic about them too.
Andrew, the spinners in the MSM can’t avoid the reality: the process of intensely managing the global response to CC has begun. Bonn in 6 months, somewhere else 6 months later,,,and so on. It is going to be like herding cats, but it will not stop and will be the ongoing big news. It is a nightmare for the Minchinovs and no amount of spin will change the agenda. Precisely because the sceptics have taken control of the coalition, Labor will be perceived to be the only party making practical efforts to tackle CC. The coalition have retreated into Isolationism, and will be seen that way by the voters.
Zoomster
[Don’t be so precious.]
Ha ha… Oh I know, I am soooo precious…
[I’ve done that to my satisfaction (sorry if it isn’t yours).]
Yes, it’s clear you want a false sense of security… Which you said was a good thing. Bravo.
Diog
so which one were you referring to? I was referring to the one about Conroy wanting to filter the net.
Also, I’m not at all clear about Copenhagen. Everything I’ve read (and I’ve had a quick glance at a few sites) talks about draft agreements, and make it obvious there are several.
Has there been some kind of outcome or is it all just deferred? If there is an outcome, do we know exactly what Australia has agreed to?
[That we have China, USA and all other countries in the tent of agreeing something must be done about CC (excluding Canada) surely now most totally marginalise and sideline the CC deniers and skeptics. Their voice as it is will be from here on seen as fringe. Bad luck Bolt and Fielding.]
TP, you add Diog to that. He feels more comfortable outside the tent so he can leave his shits around anytime and anywhere.
TP
[That we have China, USA and all other countries in the tent of agreeing something must be done about CC (excluding Canada) ]
Is Canada going the Denialist route?
Astro
I don’t want anything, I’ve made it clear that I don’t personally give a toss whether there’s a filter or not. It’s totally irrelevant to me.
Once again, you take me out of context. Which is one of the reasons why you’re so frustrating to try and talk to.
But I persevere.
And he is not yet toilet trained 😛 😛 😛
z
Poss had two articles with supporting links. This one was very good.
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/163063,commentary-why-we-dont-need-a-filter.aspx
[his will be seen as an historical and important phase in the ’saving’ of the planet for human habitation only if it leads to something else more concrete and effective or that nations actually do attend to the spirit of the ‘accord’ and together exceed expectations. Its important history will be told in hind site.]
So Australia will sign up for 5% reduction and maybe even exceed this commitment. Does Rudd really think this will satisfy the majority of voters?
Greensborough Growler #106
GG, when this occurred I was en route to Europe – actually read it on the flight:
and spent time in Germany, mainly in the west & south. I went back for a conference etc, when the subsequent fallout of it & the 1983 election (Helmet Kohl won) was still Big News.
Source: A history of Germany’s postwar elections
To put the 1983 trip in perspective, I’d only been arrived London a few days earlier, suitcases, T-shirts – everything, in fact – plastered with Let the Franklin Run Free when the B&B host came pounding up the stairs yelling “Come on down! It’s on the wireless! You’ve won! You’ve won.” What a day to be in London! To go to the Aussie pub in Theatre District (CharingX Rd? Long Acre? Forget the street, remember the pub – as Aussies do!) and drink Fosters! It was news of the day! T-shrts were an invitation to almost overwhelming congratulations, handshakes, back-slapping – even from the Bowler Hat brigade!
The conference (several weeks later) also had a major Left (antiNuke, anti-war, “Green” antiwar, Liberation Theology, anti-Pinochet etc) component (inc from some very old ladies who remembered Lenin & Mussolini when they lived in London) so you can imagine how interested the Aussie delegation was in German Green’s election results.
Even Christine Milne is a pussy cat … OOps! Am I going to be caught by The Filter?