Morgan: 59-41

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of Tony Abbott’s Liberal leadership covers the last two weekends of polling, and it fails to replicate the encouraging results for Abbott in Morgan’s two earlier small-sample phone polls. Labor’s primary vote is up two points on Malcolm Turnbull’s last poll to 49 per cent, while the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 58.5-41.5 to 59-41.

Festive preselection action:

• Former Davis Cup tennis player John Alexander has won the Liberal preselection for Bennelong, having earlier tried and failed in Bradfield. Despite predictions of a close contest, the Sydney Morning Herald reported the Left-backed Alexander had an easy first round win over local business executive Mark Chan, scoring 67 votes in the ballot of 120 preselectors. As the Herald tells it, “the right split and the hard right deserted Mr Chan”, although VexNews notes the seat is “not a centre of factional operations for either camp”. The also-rans were businessman Steve Foley and financial services director Melanie Matthewson.

• Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly has withdrawn his nomination for Labor preselection in the Perth northern suburbs federal seat of Cowan, after earlier being considered certain to get the gig. This comes in the wake of a Corruption and Crime Commission finding that Kelly had put himself at “risk” of misconduct through his relationship with Brian Burke. Burke presumably knew what he was doing when he subsequently endorsed Kelly, going on to say he had “sought my help on many occasions and I’ve always been available to assist him”. The West Australian reported the withdrawal was the product of a “mutual” decision reached after “a week of talks with Labor officials”, which included federal campaign committee chairman and Brand MP Gary Gray. Potential replacements named by The West are Dianne Guise and Judy Hughes, who respectively lost their local seats of Wanneroo and Kingsley at the state election last September. The ABC reports a decision is expected in mid-January.

• The Western Australian ALP has also confirmed Tim Hammond, Louise Durack and ECU history lecturer Bill Leadbetter as candidates for Swan, Stirling and Pearce.

• The NSW Liberals have selected incumbents Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Bill Heffernan to head their Senate ticket, reversing the order from 2004. The Coalition agreement reserves the third position for the Nationals – I am not aware of any suggestion their candidate will be anyone other than incumbent Fiona Nash. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Heffernan needed the backing of Tony Abbott to ward off challenges from David Miles, a public relations executive with Pfizer, and George Bilic, a Blacktown councillor.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes Left figurehead Anthony Albanese’s chutzpah in calling for the Macquarie preselection to be determined by rank-and-file party ballot, after the role he played in imposing numerous candidates elsewhere as a member of the party’s national executive. Albanese reportedly believes Left candidate Susan Templeman would win a local ballot, although the earlier mail was that the Right’s Adam Searle had the numbers and it was the Left who wanted national executive intervention.

• Final Liberal two-party margin from the Bradfield by-election: 14.8 per cent. From Higgins: 10.2 per cent. Respective turnouts were 81.51 per cent and 79.00 per cent, compared with 80.12 per cent at the Mayo by-election, 87.41 per cent in Lyne and 89.68 per cent in Gippsland. Question: if the results have been declared, why hasn’t the AEC published preference distributions?

VexNews reports Saturday’s Liberal preselection for the Victorian state seat of Ripon was a clear win for the unsuccessful candidate from 2006, Vic Dunn, who my records tell me is “the local inspector at Maryborough”. Dunn reportedly scored 53 votes against 26 for Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert and preselection perennial Louise Staley and four for local winery owner John van Beveren. Joe Helper holds the seat for Labor on a maergin of 4.3 per cent.

• The Berwick Star reports that Lorraine Wreford, the newly elected mayor of Casey, refused to confirm or deny reports she lodged a nomination for Liberal preselection in the state seat of Mordialloc last Friday. Janice Munt holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 3.5 per cent.

• The Country Voice SA website reports that one of its regular contributors, former SA Nationals president Wilbur Klein, will be the party’s candidate for Flinders at the March state election. The seats was held by the party prior to 1993, when it was won by its now-retiring Liberal member Liz Penfold.

• On Tuesday, The West Australian provided further data from the 400-sample Westpoll survey discussed a few posts ago, this time on attitudes to an emissions trading scheme. Forty per cent wanted it adopted immediately, down from 46 per cent two months ago. However, there was also a fall in the number wanting the government to wait until other countries committed to targets, from 47 per cent to 43 per cent. The remainder “ favoured other options to cut emissions or did not know”.

• Paul Murray of The West Australian offers some interesting electoral history on the occasion of the passing of former Liberal-turned-independent state MP Ian Thompson:

Shortly after the State election in February 1977, allegations began to emerge from both sides of politics about dirty deeds in the seat of Kimberley. Liberal sitting member Alan Ridge beat Labor’s Ernie Bridge on preferences by just 93 votes. The Liberals were the first to strike, claiming Labor was manipulating Aboriginal voters, but the move backfired badly. A subsequent Court of Disputed Returns case turned up scathing evidence of a deliberate Liberal campaign to deny Aboriginals the vote using underhand tactics and the election result was declared void on November 7.

Returning officers in the Kimberley for years had allowed illiterate Aboriginals to use party how-to-vote cards as an indication of their voting intention. What became apparent later was that Labor had put hundreds of Aboriginal voters on the roll and generally mobilised the indigenous community. The Liberals flew a team of young lawyers up from Perth to act as scrutineers at polling booths, with a plan to stop illiterate voters. The Court government pressured the chief electoral officer to instruct returning officers in the Kimberley to challenge illiterate voters and not accept their how-to-vote cards.

The court case turned up a letter of thanks from Mr Ridge to a Liberal Party member, who stood as an independent, saying “a third name on the ballot paper created some confusion among the illiterate voters and there is no doubt in my mind that it played a major part in having me re-elected”. Mr Ridge’s letter said that unless the Electoral Act was changed to make it more difficult for illiterate Aboriginals to cast their votes, the Liberals would not be able to win the seat.

Two days after the court ordered a new election, premier Sir Charles introduced in the Legislative Assembly a Bill to do just that. How-to-vote cards could not be used, nor could an instruction of a vote for just one candidate. Labor went ballistic, saying no illiterate voter would meet the test.

What transpired over nine hours was one of the most bitter debates ever seen in the WA Parliament and the galvanising of a new breed of Labor head kickers – Mr Burke, Mal Bryce, Bob Pearce and Arthur Tonkin, who came to power six years later. On November 10, it became apparent that the government was in trouble when one of the four National Country Party members not in the coalition Cabinet, Hendy Cowan, said he opposed the Bill because it disenfranchised all illiterate voters. When it came to the vote, the four NCP members crossed the floor and the maverick Liberal member for Subiaco, Dr Tom Dadour, abstained. The numbers split 25-25.

From the Speaker’s chair, Ian Thompson calmly noted that the law said when a Court of Disputed Returns ordered a by-election it had to be held under the same conditions as the original poll. If the Government wanted to amend the Electoral Act, it should do so after the by-election.

“Therefore I give my casting vote with the ‘Noes’ and the Bill is defeated,” he said. Hansard unusually recorded applause.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,931 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. | US-China bilateral meeting

    translation from the Chinese
    [According to the White House reported that Obama and Wen Jiabao at the meeting venue for bilateral talks, and “progress.” The meeting lasted 55 minutes and ended at 1.35 pm. White House officials said it was for a constructive discussion, according to Obama in his speech that are listed in three categories – national emission reduction targets, verification mechanisms, and funding. Barack Obama and Wen Jiabao met with each of the subsequent negotiations with their respective teams, as well as representatives from other countries, aimed at reaching a consensus. White House officials said that this is a step forward, and there has been progress. His aim is to reach a consensus was made today.]
    http://adoptanegotiator.org/2009/12/18/%E5%A5%A5%E5%B7%B4%E9%A9%AC%E4%B8%8E%E6%B8%A9%E5%AE%B6%E5%AE%9D%E5%9C%A8%E4%BC%9A%E8%AE%AE%E5%9C%BA%E5%86%85%E4%BD%9C%E5%8F%8C%E8%BE%B9%E4%BC%9A%E8%B0%88-us-china-bilateral-meeting/

  2. TP
    [Looked a lot like Sharon Burrows]

    Yeah, that would be Ms Burrow.( No ‘s’ on the end of her name). She won’t be missed, and having worked with her I can say that with some authority.

    [the USA could actually promote GW to reek extra havoc in China.]
    by ‘reek’ you must mean airdropping old unwanted 4711 bottles over the countryside? Yes, the US dumps sub-standard baby formula in Asia too. 🙂

  3. Yep…that is the closest you will see Obama being angry. I think the reason is China’s unwillingness for transparency. And of course you cannot (ever) trust China to self examine and report.

    China, India, South America are the main losers in this I am afraid.

  4. TP
    Looking at the Obama replay -thanks – it seemed he paused when talking about transparency and looked directly at a specific part of the audience. Could that have been the Chinese delegation?
    I would have thought he was a bit strong, but he’s there, and knows the current state of play. As usual it was a superb performance. A very dramatic piece of vision. (Of course, Hillary would have done it better 🙂

  5. OK – anybody who wants to watch Obama’s speech can do so here:

    http://ow.ly/16b2p0

    [Number three, we must have financing that helps developing countries adapt, particularly the least developed and most vulnerable countries to climate change. America will be a part of fast-start funding that will ramp up to $10 billion by 2012. And yesterday, Secretary Hillary Clinton, my Secretary of State, made it clear that we will engage in a global effort to mobilize $100 billion in financing by 2020, if — and only if — it is part of a broader accord that I have just described.

    Mitigation. Transparency. Financing. It’s a clear formula — one that embraces the principle of common but differentiated responses and respective capabilities. And it adds up to a significant accord — one that takes us farther than we have ever gone before as an international community.]

  6. It was one of those speeches that Barry just keeps on giving – with one great new element: he has 100 billion in his pocket and was dead-set working the room on who was going to get it. Incredible stuff. How big is that? Sure beats being secretary of the of the local wildlife rescue service…

  7. If a deal seems too hard to come by and the Chinese too stupid to see their position I think the next phase (whenever it comes) in all this will be to forget international agreements on CC and move to focussing on ways and means to cope with the risks it will bring.

    That means the oil and coal rich countries making hay while the sun shines and govts channelling that money to solutions to dealing with the risks associated with GW.

    That would essentially a move to pessimism and every man for himself. But I would think that phase of giving up is a few years away, one hopes.

  8. What is it with these twitter pages that think they have to update every 30 seconds and stuff up your reading? Damn annoying.

    [DavidCornDC: Obama attending second bit pow-wow meeting this afternoon with world leaders & Chinese envoy at #COP15. Hopin’ or copin’ in #Copenhagen ?]

    [OneClimate: Merkel and Barroso accused by @Oxfam of ‘lack of political courage’ for blocking EU-wide move to cut CO2 emissions by 30% #cop15 #climate]

    [PlanetPositive: RT @greenpeaceuk: The UN has asked world leaders to plan to stay overnight in #Copenhagen. #climate #COP15 ]

  9. People spending all the time arguing about internet filtering whilst the future of the planet was being decided in Copenhagen.

    Here we have a man on the moon type event…and the focus of people was a heated debate over internet porn filtering.

  10. TP
    I hope not.
    [Many delegates had been looking toward China and the U.S. _ the world’s two largest carbon polluters _ to deepen their pledges to cut the emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. But that was not to be.]

    I wouldn’t ever say the Chinese government is stupid, but my view is that the Chinese can appear politically as a little self-focussed – as does the US. So if those two leaders are talking then that’s where the power lies in terms of an agreement.

  11. [Here we have a man on the moon type event…and the focus of people was a heated debate over internet porn filtering.]
    Yep, I agree the filter crap pales into insignificance in the face of Copacabana, and I won’t forget the Obama speech either way.

  12. I think the Chinese leadership, so used to total control of most things and living in an echo chamber misunderstand the nature and level of their bargaining power, and over estimate the willingness of the USA to bend to their will. There is a certain arrogance with the Chinese leadership born from decades of total control of all things that they think they can dominate all negotiations to their ends.

    Or if they do have awareness have planned to hold out to the very last second to gain the most that they can. We will see in hindsight.

  13. [China’ s sense of transparency does not meet the expectation of Obama administration.”]
    That confirms Obama’s emphasis in his speech, if the report is correct.

    I feel like Francis Urquart – “You may well say that, but I cannot possibly comment.”
    I shall curb my instinct to impugn a culture according to my personal view of its insular approach to the world. I shall just say that the US and China both have a reputation for insularity, and one of them is currently excelling in that pursuit.

  14. Regarding China and transparency…..on the other hand, at least the Chinese Government has the ability to deliver on any promises it makes, unlike the US, which has to deal with an obstructive Senate, much like Rudd does in our own backyard.

    China and other developing countries are being asked to take an economic and environmental path that the West – already wealthy – is itself very cautious to venture down.

    And $100 billion……this is a sop, imho. Think of it in proportional terms: it is like Rudd offering to come up with $1.5 billion in 10 years time. It is not enough to do the job. And for all their rhetoric, where are the Europeans? Where is their money?

    The west has a near perfect record of reneging on its promises of aid to the developing world and should not be taken at the word. They need to do more.

  15. Apparently Obama has a mechanism to meet any promise made regarding cuts through the EPA. And it appears the GOP cannot block this method without getting majorities in the HOR, Senate and also the POTUS i.e impossible to block Obama.

    [EPA: Greenhouse Gases Are Danger To Human Health, Must Be Regulated
    The EPA said that the scientific evidence surrounding climate change clearly shows that greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of the American people” and that the pollutants – mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels – should be regulated under the Clean Air Act.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/07/epa-greenhouse-gases-are_n_382460.html

    [Republicans Work to Block EPA Carbon Rules
    Getting the proposal passed will be a heavy lift, since Republicans are a minority in both the House and Senate. The resolution requires the approval of both chambers and President Barack Obama.
    ]
    http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/12/17/us/politics/politics-us-climate-epa-republicans.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=epa%20carbon&st=cse

  16. I find it disappointing that many who have every reason to be thankful that Obama (and Rudd) disposed of an odious political regime have so easily and readily jumped on the Foxnews, News Ltd bandwagon of trivialising and carping Obama.

    They have been readily sucked into the meme – either because their favourite HRC got beat or because Obama hasn’t been God and able executed enough blue dog and GOP Senators so that his word could be divine.

    I guess it is easy for the right wing media to take this unthinking path but supposed political bloggers who are, I suppose, meant to have at least a little more forensic look at the reality…

    There is no doubt Obama is doing everything possible in all spheres…including CC and has to battle a minefield of high powered blue dogs, GOP, industry and so forth that would cower any ordinary politician.

    [ jhiskes: Obama’s clearly here to work–There’s no easy cash-in on his negotiators’ work. #cop15 #copenhagn ]

    [ DavidCornDC: This just in. Obama holding 2nd bilateral mtg w/ Premier Wen. (Lock them in the room?). #COP15 #Copenhagen ]

    [ jhiskes: Again? RT @AP_ClimatePool: (BREAKING) #Obama and Chinese Premier Wen to meet one-on-one again at #climate talks in #Copenhagen ]

    [ jhiskes: RT @GreenLeapFwd: [New Post] Has a US-China agreement on transparency been reached? Possibly. http://bit.ly/8t9Xlz #cop15 #copcap ]

  17. [DavidCornDC: Very new draft. Chinese transparency language removed and a space left for US-China determination. #COP15 Copenhagen ]

    [ DavidCornDC: New draft calls for 2016 review to consider 1.5 degrees target. #cop15 #Copenhagen ]

  18. [We know Obama met with Wen Jinbao earlier. Apparently there was another with Vice Minister He. The U.S. supposedly pressed hard for a global emissions reduction goal for 2050. China, predictably, wasn’t too keen.

    Now Obama is supposed to speak w/ Chinese President Hu Jintao who’s in Beijing (on the phone, I assume), and then going to meet again with the Danish presidency (Prime Minister Rasmussen) and someone from China all together later this evening.]

  19. As i have always maintained it will come down to the G2.

    And before anybody starts pointing to China as the bad guy or the G2 and the USA as the good guy, let me remind you of:

    1. USA did not ratify Kyoto and still has not.
    2. USA has 5% world population but consumes 25% of world resources
    3. There are still 500m Chinese who live on the poverty line of US$1 per day.
    4. Whatever the Chinese have agreed to, they can deliver but you cannot say the same about USA.

    If Cop15 failed, the G2 is to blame for not providing the right and timely leadership, both are to blame equally.

  20. A very good summary of the 11th hour of COP15:

    [Then at 7pm the White House announced that Obama and Wen – the two giants on this stage – had gone into a second face-to-face meeting. Brown, meanwhile, was exploring the possibility of sending Brazil’s Lula as an emissary to broker an agreement between industrialised economies and the developing world.

    “I am not sure if such an angel or wise man will come down to this plenary and put in our minds the intelligence that we lacked,” he said. “I believe in God. I believe in miracles.”

    The summit needed one.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-race-for-a-deal

  21. I agree with Finns. China and USA have to do a deal both think is fair. Kyoto architects never thought through the reasonableness of getting countries with already low CO2 per capita (like China) to agree to emission cuts. Copenhagen was doomed by design.

    Now some countries will act unilatterally, and it will still help if we pass an ETS. But there will be no solution before another year is wasted.

  22. Regarding the poll, I find it hard to believe 59/41. If it is true Labor can thank Barnaby Joyce. But more likley I would have expected a status quo around 56/44 to continue.

  23. [But, in the long story of humankind, it is normal that resource-rich societies end up failures. Paradoxically, the apparent blessings of nature usually turn out to be a curse. Not just most of the time, but virtually all the time. Resource wealth usually comes with high inflation, extreme indebtedness, corruption and civil war.

    Professor Paul Stevens, from the University of Dundee in Scotland, surveyed 52 resource-rich developing countries and found that only four had managed to extract a real national benefit from nature’s bounty: Chile, Malaysia, Indonesia and Botswana. That is a dismal record.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/enough-porkies-its-time-for-a-few-home-truths-20091218-l5na.html

    Am I missing something here about this Professor? What has he been smoking or drinking, 200 years old scotch? For the resource-rich Indonesia, it has been a curse. It has spawned endless and ongoing corruption. It sent Pertamina, one of the world biggest oil producers into bankruptcy. In 1998, it almost sent Indonesia into bankruptcy during the Asian Financial Crisis.

    [According to the most comprehensive measure, the United Nations annual index of human development that ranks 182 countries, Australia is second only to Norway in enjoying the best living conditions available to the human species. This index includes life expectancy, education and purchasing power. If it incorporated climate, of course, Norway would have to vacate the dais.

    And Australia is not just one of the very richest, but also one of the very fairest. The Paris-based club of 30 rich democracies, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, reports that in the past few years the level of income inequality in Australia fell below that of the OECD average for the first time.

    It turns out that John Howard and Peter Costello delivered the closest thing to a socialist paradise that Australia has seen. Who knew?]

    The Chinese have always maintained that Australia is their kind of “egalitarian, communist” (not in the political sense) society that CCP aspires to build and have said so.

    [If there is a sweet spot in human existence, Australia, you’re in it. Peter Hartcher is the political editor.]

    Hear, hear, and Peter, a very happy Xmas and New year to you too. To you too Soc.

  24. Thanks Finns. Have a happy splash about the sea over the holidays yourself. I always enjoy your thoughts (they are not a guilty pleasure) 🙂

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