Morgan phone poll: 53-47

I held off doing a post on yesterday’s unconvincing Morgan phone poll result in the hope they would give us a face-to-face poll this week, but either they’ve gone on Christmas break or are returning to their old pattern of combining results fortnightly. Yesterday’s effort was a phone poll from a sample of just 493 respondents, conducted on the back of a survey about climate change. The results were not unlike those of last week’s similarly dubious poll: Labor up a point to 42 per cent, the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent and the Greens down one to 9.5 per cent, with Labor’s two-party lead steady on 53-47.

Elsewhere:

• Phoebe Stewart of the ABC reports Palmerston deputy mayor Natasha Griggs has been preselected as the Country Liberal Party candidate for Darwin-based Solomon, defeating three other candidates including Darwin City Council alderman Garry Lambert and Tourism Top End head Tony Clementson. Bob Gosford of The Northern Myth further writes that Bess Price, described by the Northern Territory News as an “indigenous domestic violence campaigner”, has nominated for CLP preselection in the territory’s other electorate, Lingiari. Price has the backing of Alison Anderson, Labor-turned-independent member for Macdonnell, and says she has “always voted Labor” in the past.

• VexNews hears the NSW Liberals could dump Chris Spence as candidate for The Entrance early in the New Year. At issue is Spence’s comprehensive resume as a former One Nation activist: research officer to the party’s state upper house MP David Oldfield, federal candidate for Fraser in 1998, state candidate for Barwon in 2003, New South Wales state party secretary, national and state president of the youth wing “Youth Nation”, and ACT branch president and regional council chair.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports possible scenarios for federal intervention into the NSW Labor Party include replacing secretary Matthew Thistlethwaite with an administrator answerable to the federal executive, and stripping Joe Tripodi and Eddie Obeid of their preselection (respectively for Fairfield and the upper house).

• Nick Minchin told ABC Television on Wednesday that it would be “healthy for democracy” if restrictions were placed on television election advertising to reduce the costs of campaigning.

• The Labor national executive has endorsed Rob Mitchell for a second try at McEwen, to be vacated at the next election by retiring Liberal Fran Bailey. The court ruling in Mitchell’s unsuccessful legal challenge against the 2007 result saw his margin of defeat increased from 12 to 27.

• Damien Madigan of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports the the state leadership change has inspired Labor’s national executive to delay its preselection decision for Macquarie, where Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle is expected to be named successor to the retiring Bob Debus.

• Reader Sacha Blumen points me to a Wentworth Courier article from a month ago (see page 22) naming two potential Labor candidates for Wentworth – “Paddington veterinarian Barry Nielsen and Darlinghurst barrister Phillip Boulten” – in addition to Stephen Lewis, described in last week’s edition as a Slater & Gordon lawyer, anti-high rise activist and members of the Jewish Board of Deputies. Former Australian Medical Association president Kerryn Phelps has also been mentioned in the past. This week the Courier reports the Greens have endorsed Matthew Robertson, a Darlinghurst-based legal researcher for the Refugee Advice and Casework Service.

• Antony Green berates those of us who were “examining the entrails of the booth by booth results to try and divine some patterns” from Saturday’s by-elections, arguing such entrails are only interesting for what they tell us about “how Labor voters react to the Greens as a political party”. The conclusion is that “Labor voters in the ritzier parts of Bradfield seem more likely to view the Greens as a left-wing alternative to Labor than Labor voters in less affluent areas”. Antony has since conducted some entrail examination of his own to conclude that the resulting positive relationship between the two-party Liberal vote in 2007 and the Liberal swing at the by-election is unusual for urban electorates. My own post-mortem was published in Crikey on Monday.

• The NSW Nationals have announced the state seat of Tamworth will be the laboratory for its open primary experiment, in which the party’s candidate will be chosen by a vote open to every person enrolled in the electorate. The naturally conservative seat is held by independent Peter Draper, having been in independent hands for all but two years since Tony Windsor (now the federal member for New England) won it in 1991.

• Robert Taylor of The West Australian has written an action-packed column on Labor federal preselection matters in Western Australia. It commences thus:

On the surface, the WA Labor Party’s powerful state administrative committee looks to have a straightforward job next Monday when it meets to approve candidates in crucial seats for next year’s Federal election. In typical Labor fashion, three of the candidates for the most winnable Liberal seats of Swan, Cowan and Canning are unopposed, the backroom deals having already been done between the factional powerbrokers to obviate the need for a vote and all the inherent dangers that accompany them. In Durack, where there’s an outside chance of Labor rolling incumbent Barry Haase in the redrawn Kalgooorlie-based electorate, former State Geraldton Labor MP Shane Hill is also unopposed, but that’s because he was really the only one who wanted it badly enough. In Stirling, where Labor has a second to none chance of rolling incumbent Michael Keenan, something obviously went wrong because two people decided to nominate against the favourite Louise Durack, but an upset is highly unlikely.

So the administrative committee had very little to worry about until last Thursday when the Corruption and Crime Commission released its long-awaited report on goings-on at the City of Wanneroo, which handed a couple of misconduct findings to deputy mayor Sam Salpietro and fired a salvo across the bows of Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly. The problem for Labor is that Mr Kelly is the party’s hope in the seat of Cowan, held by the Liberals Luke Simpkins with a thin 2.4 per cent margin. Labor sees a combination of the local mayor and Kevin Rudd as an irresistible combination in Cowan and had all but pencilled in the seat as a win before last week’s report. The CCC made it clear that in its opinion Mr Kelly was prepared to curry favour with former premier-turned-lobbyist Brian Burke in order to further his own political ambitions. Mr Kelly argued both at the commission and since the report came out that he did everything possible to distance himself from Mr Burke, but put bluntly the CCC just didn’t believe him – which must make the ALP’s administrative committee wonder whether the voters of Cowan will either.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has been in touch to point out an error in last week’s Newspoll post, which stated both Newspoll and the Nielsen poll were both conducted on the Friday and Saturday. Newspoll’s surveying in fact continued throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,043 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53-47”

Comments Page 18 of 21
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  1. [Well, I guess it is a historical thing. The Democratic and Republican parties have almost completely switched ideologies over the last 100 years.]
    I was referring to Obama and some current conservative Democrats.

    Yes, the Republicans fought the Civil War for black emancipation, as well as the other political reasons. But some Democrats today aren’t as liberal as Kennedy or Johnson were.

  3. God, it is so infuriating.

    News Unlimited has clearly launched a full scale attack on Kevin and Labor.

    Promoting Great Big Mouth, Great Big Shadows, Great Big Bullshit.

    Page after page, on the Sunday Murdoch.

    Flick, flick. I tore it up, enraged. Oh. Hurled it into the recycle bin.

    That will not do it though. The same shit will be printed tomorrow. And every day after.

    Can barely concentrate on the turkey recipe.

  4. Any wonder shows wants to change the subject.. .

    It is elements within the Labor movement who are so right wing that are quietly trying to convince everyone by stealth of the merits of nuclear power..
    It is like a drip feed keep pushing and convincing and forgot about the fair dinkum alternatives, of energy which could be free for people and we cannot have that…
    Bit like water must continue to keep people metered up and living on desalination water and not water tanks because we need the money… and taxes it provides..
    And when the opinion polls have changed then they will go for it… At what cost to the taxpayer ?
    Very little concern regarding the consequences and how many died at Chernobyl again.. some 2 million people indirectly and directly.

  5. Some bludgers here seem to have miss the point about that Obama article, it was published by The Rolling Stone, Obama’s supporter, not some right wing media like Foxnews.

    It is obvious that Obama is being crushed slowly by the US political establishments and big business.

  7. [Any wonder shows wants to change the subject..]
    LOL! How the hell is asking you to paste the quote an example of trying to change the subject?

    Your rant about “elements within the Labor movement” is a far better example of trying to change the subject.

  8. [It is elements within the Labor movement who are so right wing that are quietly trying to convince everyone by stealth of the merits of nuclear power..]
    Where? When?

  10. Finns
    [It is obvious that Obama is being crushed slowly by the US political establishments and big business]

    Hilary would’ve crushed them
    and then crushed em again for good measure

    ‘)

  12. [Frank,

    You need to replace all of your old stfu with the new one.

    My line

    const authors = ‘bob1234|marg’;

    works.]
    Got it going 🙂

  13. Many thanks Musrum

    I’m not a programmer, but I fiddle and get there. Had a good afternoon of fiddling with some code 🙂

    Much of the formatting of your code looks very familiar. It looks very much the same as the coding of my sharemarket charting and analysis program, Amibroker.

    You don’t happen to be a AB user do you ?

    [ stfu v2
    … a kinder, gentler stfu!

    Features:
    1. Easily add users to the list. (Finns)
    2. Easily switch between a blacklist and a whitelist. (castle)
    3. Seen, but not heard. (BB)

    The last feature allows a little bit of Bob back into your world, but you need to opt-in to read his wisdom (just click the link).

    Enjoy… ]

  15. Marky

    Dont worry,the inner circle dont even wipe there asses on issues such as nuclear.

    They have real world problems to deal with.

    ps the nuclear bandwagon’s pushers inside the ALP are the old DLP demographic and as such get the attention they deserve.
    nothing!

  16. [Gave the page reference get it and read it… Cannot paste it, did not get online.]
    There’s absolutely nothing on that page that says anything remotely near what you say it does.

    CONGRATULATIONS! You win Poll Bludger’s Ian Plimer award for the most misleading and deceptive use of a reference in order to aid an unsustainable argument!

    Are you going to contest the award next year?

  18. [Dont worry,the inner circle dont even wipe there asses on issues such as nuclear.]
    LOL! Nah, only Martin Ferguson, he’s only… wait for it a cabinet minister.

    Gusface,

    0/10

  20. [Finn, i miss bob]

    Gus, this is your fault, you started this:

    [Why I Miss George W. Bush – Now, those were not the greatest eight years this country has ever seen, I’ll admit that right off the bat. Yet, I can’t help but miss having George in the White House. Here’s why.

    I miss the silence. Seems like every other day Obama is giving a speech or a lecture or tap-dancing in front of the cameras to promote one issue or another. George W. Bush had no need for such antics. It was never “open mike” at the White House. He kept his appearances among the riff-raff to a minimum. The only times the general public was addressed by the President was during the annual State of the Union speech and whenever we attacked another country.

    I miss the honesty. George did not make any promises about getting us out of Afghanistan. He said from the go that we were in this for the long haul. Freedom came at a price, we knew, and each time George asked Congress for another $80 billion, we knew where that money was going – to Iraq and Afghanistan.

    I also miss the patriotism.]

    http://dagblog.com/reader-blogs/why-i-miss-george-w-bush-1085

    I, too, have a confession, I miss Howie 👿

  24. Before Shows has a heart attack the report says this that the total amount of emissions from nuclear power stations is something in the range of 40g CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour during their life cycle and in reading it further it does mention this is much the same as what renewable energy sources provide.
    No difference yes but nuclear has significant risks..

  25. like sands fru the hourglass so are the days of shows links.

    Psephos,from your article that you linked

    [While again insisting Australia has access to so many energy sources that it does not need to use nuclear power, Mr Ferguson writes that other nations are not so fortunate.]

  26. [Oh and thats right mar’n proposed nuclear in cabinet: NO]
    Where did I say he proposed nuclear in cabinet?

    You had a good period, but you’re back to making things up again.

  27. [and in reading it further it does mention this is much the same as what renewable energy sources provide.]
    Great, so you finally admit that you used a quote that says something completely different from what you asserted it said.

    Now that you have admitted that, we can present you with your Ian Plimer award.

  30. [So much is the Labor Party spending on Carbon Capture and Storage again… and how much on Solar.. .]
    CCS is a joke. It is at least 15 years away and is going to cost billions.

  31. I admitted the full facts but their Nuclear comes with the significant risks and this is far out of your mind..
    I wonder if you have some connection with this industry… You see many people on here have a connection with the inner Labor circles and are they objective NO…

  32. [I miss the honesty]

    Dude, if after 8 years you still thought GWB was honest, there’s just no help for that single brain cell you have

  33. It isn’t just recently the right wing media has gone against Rudd and Labor. They have been at it for a long while. Can’t say it hasn’t had any effect as who knows, maybe Rudd Labor would be 65/35 without them acting on behalf of the near non-existent Opposition party. Fortunately for Labor the Opposition has been lame and so as the negative media might stir some people up they have nowhere else to turn.

    One good thing is murdoch won’t live forever and his papers have an uncertain future as well. His stable of reporters are not much good for anything except maybe washing the floors at the ABC so their futures would be grim as well.

  34. [Sorry showy

    you have been hoisted on your own petard

    enjoy the breeze]
    Gusface

    0/10

    No ideas, no argument, no thought, no understanding, no explanation, no hope.

  36. [I admitted the full facts but their Nuclear comes with the significant risks and this is far out of your mind..]
    And continuing to use coal and gas doesn’t have risks?

    What about the risks to energy supply if we bet everything on renewables? Are you willing to sit through power failures in summer just because it isn’t windy enough?
    [I wonder if you have some connection with this industry…]
    LOL! You’re as bad as Gusface! Assume a conspiracy theory, then hunt for facts later.
    [You see many people on here have a connection with the inner Labor circles and are they objective NO…]
    You must be referring to Gusface who is obviously right in the MIDDLE of that circle.

  38. [So CCS is years away and Nuclear isn’t and it is going to cost how much.. Nuclear is going to cost us what nothing.. .]
    What are you smoking?

  39. Showy

    read em and weep

    [Psephos,from your article that you linked

    While again insisting Australia has access to so many energy sources that it does not need to use nuclear power, Mr Ferguson writes that other nations are not so fortunate.]

    Now what were you saying about Mar’n supporting Nuclear in australia?

    *crickets*

  40. [His stable of reporters are not much good for anything except maybe washing the floors at the ABC so their futures would be grim as well]

    With Janet on the way out, in time they may not be welcome there. One can only hope.

  41. [So CCS is years away and Nuclear isn’t and it is going to cost how much.. Nuclear is going to cost us what nothing.. .]
    Sure nuclear will cost more than CCS (remember, CCS is going to cost a few billion per plant), but at least nuclear WORKS NOW.

    As that page you misreferenced in the IPCC report says, nuclear has HIGH upfront costs (i.e. to build the reactor) but after that the operating costs are low.

  42. [Now what were you saying about Mar’n supporting Nuclear in australia?

    *crickets*]
    0/10

    He personally supports nuclear power. In that quote he is simply stating the government’s position. I know it is hard for you to understand, but he is PART of the government he isn’t THE government.

  43. Nuclears risks are far greater, and we have one electricity source called the sun.. and this government should be investing in researching solar plants and plants which capture energy and store it. A far safer and cleaner alternative.. Within five years i think this will be the option and a reliable one..
    Nuclear is not…
    i never said you had a connection with nuclear industry i asked… time for bed have a bex shows and a good lie down…

  44. I really don’t see why this has to be posed as a good v evil debate. The fact is that all three options (carbon, nuclear, renewables) come with advantages and disadvantages, and these vary from country to country depending on what resources they have to start with. We happen to have lots of coal, lots of uranium and lots of sunshine, so we have the luxury of choice, unlike other countries. Also we are wealthy enough to able to afford any or all of the options. If our overriding priority is to stop emitting GHGs very soon, then nuclear has obvious advantages, despite its risks. But we also have a huge existing investment in coal, so if there is a way to use coal cleanly (CCS), then we should try to find it. At the same time, we should be investing in renewables. Surely we are smart enough, flexible enough and rich enough not to have to make an irrevocable either/or choice among these options.

  45. Ohhh
    [He personally supports nuclear power]

    So suddenly you switch the argument from an official position to a personal one.

    Still swinging in the breeze showy

    ps and getting a tad whiffy too
    🙂

  48. [Within five years i think this will be the option and a reliable one..]
    I think we will be lucky if the first 1 GW solar thermal plant will be finished in 5 years time. And remember, the tax payer contribution to that plant is 50% of the cost – $700 million so it bloody better work else there will be a heap of pissed of voters wondering where their money went.

  50. The problem is they are frightened about marginal seats and they need the union memberships to help with the campaigns it is not about renewables but money and unions simple…

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