Morgan phone poll: 53-47

I held off doing a post on yesterday’s unconvincing Morgan phone poll result in the hope they would give us a face-to-face poll this week, but either they’ve gone on Christmas break or are returning to their old pattern of combining results fortnightly. Yesterday’s effort was a phone poll from a sample of just 493 respondents, conducted on the back of a survey about climate change. The results were not unlike those of last week’s similarly dubious poll: Labor up a point to 42 per cent, the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent and the Greens down one to 9.5 per cent, with Labor’s two-party lead steady on 53-47.

Elsewhere:

Phoebe Stewart of the ABC reports Palmerston deputy mayor Natasha Griggs has been preselected as the Country Liberal Party candidate for Darwin-based Solomon, defeating three other candidates including Darwin City Council alderman Garry Lambert and Tourism Top End head Tony Clementson. Bob Gosford of The Northern Myth further writes that Bess Price, described by the Northern Territory News as an “indigenous domestic violence campaigner”, has nominated for CLP preselection in the territory’s other electorate, Lingiari. Price has the backing of Alison Anderson, Labor-turned-independent member for Macdonnell, and says she has “always voted Labor” in the past.

VexNews hears the NSW Liberals could dump Chris Spence as candidate for The Entrance early in the New Year. At issue is Spence’s comprehensive resume as a former One Nation activist: research officer to the party’s state upper house MP David Oldfield, federal candidate for Fraser in 1998, state candidate for Barwon in 2003, New South Wales state party secretary, national and state president of the youth wing “Youth Nation”, and ACT branch president and regional council chair.

Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports possible scenarios for federal intervention into the NSW Labor Party include replacing secretary Matthew Thistlethwaite with an administrator answerable to the federal executive, and stripping Joe Tripodi and Eddie Obeid of their preselection (respectively for Fairfield and the upper house).

• Nick Minchin told ABC Television on Wednesday that it would be “healthy for democracy” if restrictions were placed on television election advertising to reduce the costs of campaigning.

• The Labor national executive has endorsed Rob Mitchell for a second try at McEwen, to be vacated at the next election by retiring Liberal Fran Bailey. The court ruling in Mitchell’s unsuccessful legal challenge against the 2007 result saw his margin of defeat increased from 12 to 27.

Damien Madigan of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports the the state leadership change has inspired Labor’s national executive to delay its preselection decision for Macquarie, where Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle is expected to be named successor to the retiring Bob Debus.

• Reader Sacha Blumen points me to a Wentworth Courier article from a month ago (see page 22) naming two potential Labor candidates for Wentworth – “Paddington veterinarian Barry Nielsen and Darlinghurst barrister Phillip Boulten” – in addition to Stephen Lewis, described in last week’s edition as a Slater & Gordon lawyer, anti-high rise activist and members of the Jewish Board of Deputies. Former Australian Medical Association president Kerryn Phelps has also been mentioned in the past. This week the Courier reports the Greens have endorsed Matthew Robertson, a Darlinghurst-based legal researcher for the Refugee Advice and Casework Service.

• Antony Green berates those of us who were “examining the entrails of the booth by booth results to try and divine some patterns” from Saturday’s by-elections, arguing such entrails are only interesting for what they tell us about “how Labor voters react to the Greens as a political party”. The conclusion is that “Labor voters in the ritzier parts of Bradfield seem more likely to view the Greens as a left-wing alternative to Labor than Labor voters in less affluent areas”. Antony has since conducted some entrail examination of his own to conclude that the resulting positive relationship between the two-party Liberal vote in 2007 and the Liberal swing at the by-election is unusual for urban electorates. My own post-mortem was published in Crikey on Monday.

• The NSW Nationals have announced the state seat of Tamworth will be the laboratory for its open primary experiment, in which the party’s candidate will be chosen by a vote open to every person enrolled in the electorate. The naturally conservative seat is held by independent Peter Draper, having been in independent hands for all but two years since Tony Windsor (now the federal member for New England) won it in 1991.

Robert Taylor of The West Australian has written an action-packed column on Labor federal preselection matters in Western Australia. It commences thus:

On the surface, the WA Labor Party’s powerful state administrative committee looks to have a straightforward job next Monday when it meets to approve candidates in crucial seats for next year’s Federal election. In typical Labor fashion, three of the candidates for the most winnable Liberal seats of Swan, Cowan and Canning are unopposed, the backroom deals having already been done between the factional powerbrokers to obviate the need for a vote and all the inherent dangers that accompany them. In Durack, where there’s an outside chance of Labor rolling incumbent Barry Haase in the redrawn Kalgooorlie-based electorate, former State Geraldton Labor MP Shane Hill is also unopposed, but that’s because he was really the only one who wanted it badly enough. In Stirling, where Labor has a second to none chance of rolling incumbent Michael Keenan, something obviously went wrong because two people decided to nominate against the favourite Louise Durack, but an upset is highly unlikely.

So the administrative committee had very little to worry about until last Thursday when the Corruption and Crime Commission released its long-awaited report on goings-on at the City of Wanneroo, which handed a couple of misconduct findings to deputy mayor Sam Salpietro and fired a salvo across the bows of Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly. The problem for Labor is that Mr Kelly is the party’s hope in the seat of Cowan, held by the Liberals Luke Simpkins with a thin 2.4 per cent margin. Labor sees a combination of the local mayor and Kevin Rudd as an irresistible combination in Cowan and had all but pencilled in the seat as a win before last week’s report. The CCC made it clear that in its opinion Mr Kelly was prepared to curry favour with former premier-turned-lobbyist Brian Burke in order to further his own political ambitions. Mr Kelly argued both at the commission and since the report came out that he did everything possible to distance himself from Mr Burke, but put bluntly the CCC just didn’t believe him – which must make the ALP’s administrative committee wonder whether the voters of Cowan will either.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has been in touch to point out an error in last week’s Newspoll post, which stated both Newspoll and the Nielsen poll were both conducted on the Friday and Saturday. Newspoll’s surveying in fact continued throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,043 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53-47”

Comments Page 17 of 21
1 16 17 18 21
  1. [Which brings us back to the start. They are almost depleted. ]
    This is just nonsense there is 80 – 100 years of Uranium on CURRENT estimates, and those will just increase as more marginal ore bodies are considered economically viable to mine.

  2. [who pays for the small TOWN that would need to be built for all the workers.]

    I would imagine we would do it in exactly the same way we do it when running a desert mine. We are actually pretty good at it now. Fly in; fly out probable won’t survive.

  3. [This is just nonsense there is 80 – 100 years of Uranium on CURRENT estimates, and those will just increase as more marginal ore bodies are considered economically viable to mine.]

    And marginal ore bodies aren’t going to take more energy to mine? If we take real results Australia has already passed peak production. Ranger coming back on line may change that, we will see.

  4. [stfu v2
    … a kinder, gentler stfu!

    Features:
    1. Easily add users to the list. (Finns)
    2. Easily switch between a blacklist and a whitelist. (castle)
    3. Seen, but not heard. (BB)

    The last feature allows a little bit of Bob back into your world, but you need to opt-in to read his wisdom (just click the link).

    Enjoy…]

    How do I add people ?

  5. [And marginal ore bodies aren’t going to take more energy to mine?]
    And energy will be more valuable making it worthwhile…
    [If we take real results Australia has already passed peak production.]
    LOL! This is HILARIOUS, Olympic Dam wants to DOUBLE the size of its mine, and it alone has 40% of the world’s Uranium, and you are saying we have PASSED peak production?

    Add to that the fact there are ore bodies in QLD that can not be mined due to Government policy, which will be overturned whenever the LNP manages to win an election there.

  6. We dont seem to have discussed the poll, albeit a phone Morgan with a small sample. 47% want to vote for Abbott and his rabble?? Unbelievable

  7. [We learn something new every day. Today I learned that a pocket calculator can do a full cycle in a washing machine and then 30 minutes in a tumble drier, and still work. Bravo to the EXP corporation of China.]

    Not surprising, seeing as the circuit boards are washed in an aqueous ultrasonic bath. All the components need to be completely waterproof, including the conductive rubber switches.

    Take it from One Who Knows.

    I suppose now we both know.

  8. Once upon a time, you talked so fine, people believe in you,
    Now you dont talk so loud, or look so proud,
    Having won the Prize in lieu.

    How does it feel, to be chastised by the Rolling Stone,
    Not as if you’re a competely unknown.
    With no direction home.

    Hey Bob (no not 1234), STFU:

    [Obama’s Big Sellout – The president has packed his economic team with Wall Street insiders intent on turning the bailout into an all-out giveaway

    MATT TAIBBI Posted Dec 09, 2009 2:35 PM

    Barack Obama ran for president as a man of the people, standing up to Wall Street as the global economy melted down in that fateful fall of 2008. He pushed a tax plan to soak the rich, ripped NAFTA for hurting the middle class and tore into John McCain for supporting a bankruptcy bill that sided with wealthy bankers “at the expense of hardworking Americans.” Obama may not have run to the left of Samuel Gompers or Cesar Chavez, but it’s not like you saw him on the campaign trail flanked by bankers from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. What inspired supporters who pushed him to his historic win was the sense that a genuine outsider was finally breaking into an exclusive club, that walls were being torn down, that things were, for lack of a better or more specific term, changing.

    Then he got elected. What’s taken place in the year since Obama won the presidency has turned out to be one of the most dramatic political about-faces in our history.]

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout

    Yes, the silly season has started 😀

  9. [At a cost of 15 billion dollars; real bargain isn’t it.]
    You have a problem with the world’s biggest mining company investing money in an Australian mining operation?
    [ooo.. a nuclear industry astroturfing site.. how exciting]
    LOL! You’re hilarious. It’s written by a Professor of Climate Change at Adelaide University!
    [Professor Barry Brook holds the Foundation Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change and is Director of Climate Science at The Environment Institute, University of Adelaide.

    He has published two books and over 150 peer-reviewed scientific papers, and regularly writes opinion pieces and popular articles for the media. He has received a number of distinguished awards in recognition of his research excellence, which addresses the topics of climate change, computational and statistical modelling and the synergies between human impacts on Earth systems.]
    And in comparison, you’re an engineer who thinks nuclear reactors can’t work.

    But anyway, I note that you couldn’t refute any of his arguments, so I consider it settled that you now realise that solar thermal isn’t the clean energy panacea that you previously pretended it was.
    [Take it from One Who Knows.

    I suppose now we both know.]
    Psephos earlier tonight:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGKhV6WsNrA

  10. Gus

    No facts, no argument, no ideas, poor marking, poor feedback. Too much nothing.

    0/10
    [Cud

    Excellent analysis,good info lots to dwell on

    8/10]
    LOL! Are you INCLUDING the part where he completely dismissed an entire webpage without explaining why?

  11. [This is what David Suzuki thinks of nuclear power]
    Thanks Marky Marky, the Suzuki gambit hadn’t yet been played tonight, but thanks for providing it right on schedule.

  12. Sums it up but sections of the Labor movement are now out their spruiking it when the real alternative is solar power and geothermal.
    At present the Australian government is heaviliy investing in carbon capture and storage and yet a solution in this area is many years away.
    Solar is the go and the Australian government is wasting money on this bulldust.. Why?

  13. shows
    [No facts, no argument, no ideas, poor marking, poor feedback. Too much nothing.]

    0/10

    You remind of my teachers at school
    😉
    [LOL! Are you INCLUDING the part where he completely dismissed an entire webpage without explaining why?]

    Thats why it was only 8/10,now if cud had bothered to shoot down yours and dio’s posterboy then definitely it would have been a 10/10.

    Thanks for pointing that out
    🙂

  14. [Thats why it was only 8/10,now if cud had bothered to shoot down yours and dio’s posterboy then definitely it would have been a 10/10.]
    I would simply like to see him TRY, he just needs to put some EFFORT into his work instead of dismissing things out of hand because he is completely unable to come up with a counter argument.

  15. But instead of thinking about conserving energy and reducing its use we want to continue the lie of economic growth and business at usual…

    And by the way shows it is not only David Suzuki who thinks nuclear emits lots of emissions the IPCC also makes the same comments.

  16. [Solar is the go and the Australian government is wasting money on this bulldust.. Why?]
    In the last budget the federal government put forward $700 million to build a 1 GW solar thermal plant. They estimate they will need another $700 million from the private sector to build it.

  17. [But instead of thinking about conserving energy and reducing its use we want to continue the lie of economic growth and business at usual…]
    The Government’s modeling for the RET factors in 10 – 15% across the board efficiency improvement by 2050, but still by then it is estimated we will need 110 GW of electricity, i.e. nearly double we use now.

    Energy efficiency isn’t a panacea either, it is pointless spending more on efficiency than you get back. You reach a point where it would be better spending that money on more clean energy capacity.
    [And by the way shows it is not only David Suzuki who thinks nuclear emits lots of emissions the IPCC also makes the same comments.]
    Provide me with an IPCC reference that states this.

  18. [..has turned out to be one of the most dramatic political about-faces in our history.]

    When somebody says something like this type of hyperbole and also entitles their story ‘the big sell out’ you know that you are reading about the personal disappointment of the reporter and not a balanced realistic analysis.

    Obama is suffering quite a lot from not being God, it disappoints people that he too has to operate in the real murky world and just can’t ignore blue dogs and the Senate. They forget he wasn’t elected to King or Emperor.

  19. Nuclear is not the answer for australia. For countries in Europe where the sun is not a valuable commidity yes… but this does not make me in favor of it.
    Countries in Europe are using various types of energy sources and this is the way for them but not Australia.
    And why are the Labor thinkheads now spruiking it because to marginal seats and unions.. They are frightened of the consequences of fewer union members and a few seats… It is the money from the memberships which props up their campaigns which worries them.. .

  20. [Countries in Europe are using various types of energy sources and this is the way for them but not Australia.]
    Yeah, including coal and gas for example which are great for the environment.

  21. L. Ron Hubbard|Joseph Smith, Jr

    I am always perplexed that people actually fell for the religions these two people obviously invented out of their imaginations. OH yeh and the Mary Baker-Eddy Christian Scientist stuff as well, though I think she stole her idea of some doctor.

  22. [Obama is suffering quite a lot from not being God, it disappoints people that he too has to operate in the real murky world and just can’t ignore blue dogs and the Senate.]
    Perhaps Obama should spend his political capital on supporting moderate Democrat rep and senator in next year’s primaries and elections. Then he might have a more agreeable Reps and Senate which might allow him in the remaining 2 years to get through the type of legislation which he was elected to implement.

  23. [Perhaps Obama should spend his political capital on supporting moderate Democrat rep and senator in next year’s primaries and elections.]
    It wouldn’t be a good look for a President to go to war against part of his political party.

  24. [// Add any extra authors to the list here, seperated by a pipe symbol ‘|’.
    // e.g:
    // const authors = ‘bob1234|L. Ron Hubbard|Joseph Smith, Jr.’; ]

    I tried adding marg and Peter Y, but alas it don’t work, and yes I did follow the instructions and used their username from page source.

  25. [Nuclear is not the answer for australia.] … [And why are the Labor thinkheads now spruiking it because to marginal seats and unions.. They are frightened of the consequences of fewer union members and a few seats]

    Are they spruiking? Where? Federal Labor seems to be rejecting nuclear options automatically and running with fanciful CSS to try and save coal mining jobs and revenues.

  26. What is this Blacklist & Whitelist business?

    Is this the White Australia Policy revisited? Surely, not on PB.

    What about a Brownlist and a Redlist. 👿

  27. [It wouldn’t be a good look for a President to go to war against part of his political party.]
    It is difficult to believe that some of the conservative democrat senators are actually in the same party as Obama. Maybe policy is more important than nominal party affiliation.

  28. The Australian Government has committed 100 million for Global Capture and Storage Institute and 2.4 BILLION , yep BILLION fund to cover a third of the cost of building up to four commerical scale CCS “flagship” projects. The coal industry to date has provided 513 million… YEP the taxpayer helping out industry again…

    The Victorian Government in 2002 unveiled four experimental projects in this area and so far after handing out some licenses nothing has come of these projects, but some people have made lots of money…

  29. [I tried adding marg and Peter Y, but alas it don’t work, and yes I did follow the instructions and used their username from page source.]

    Frank, Mushy was being too cute here. He is not using the username from page source. He is using the display name as we see it, eg: Frank Calabrese or The Finnigans and it is case sensitive.

  30. [It is difficult to believe that some of the conservative democrat senators are actually in the same party as Obama.]
    Well, I guess it is a historical thing. The Democratic and Republican parties have almost completely switched ideologies over the last 100 years.

  31. This is for you shows…

    IPCC source , mitigation contribution of working group iii to the fourth assessment report page 269…

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 17 of 21
1 16 17 18 21