Morgan phone poll: 53-47

I held off doing a post on yesterday’s unconvincing Morgan phone poll result in the hope they would give us a face-to-face poll this week, but either they’ve gone on Christmas break or are returning to their old pattern of combining results fortnightly. Yesterday’s effort was a phone poll from a sample of just 493 respondents, conducted on the back of a survey about climate change. The results were not unlike those of last week’s similarly dubious poll: Labor up a point to 42 per cent, the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent and the Greens down one to 9.5 per cent, with Labor’s two-party lead steady on 53-47.

Elsewhere:

• Phoebe Stewart of the ABC reports Palmerston deputy mayor Natasha Griggs has been preselected as the Country Liberal Party candidate for Darwin-based Solomon, defeating three other candidates including Darwin City Council alderman Garry Lambert and Tourism Top End head Tony Clementson. Bob Gosford of The Northern Myth further writes that Bess Price, described by the Northern Territory News as an “indigenous domestic violence campaigner”, has nominated for CLP preselection in the territory’s other electorate, Lingiari. Price has the backing of Alison Anderson, Labor-turned-independent member for Macdonnell, and says she has “always voted Labor” in the past.

• VexNews hears the NSW Liberals could dump Chris Spence as candidate for The Entrance early in the New Year. At issue is Spence’s comprehensive resume as a former One Nation activist: research officer to the party’s state upper house MP David Oldfield, federal candidate for Fraser in 1998, state candidate for Barwon in 2003, New South Wales state party secretary, national and state president of the youth wing “Youth Nation”, and ACT branch president and regional council chair.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports possible scenarios for federal intervention into the NSW Labor Party include replacing secretary Matthew Thistlethwaite with an administrator answerable to the federal executive, and stripping Joe Tripodi and Eddie Obeid of their preselection (respectively for Fairfield and the upper house).

• Nick Minchin told ABC Television on Wednesday that it would be “healthy for democracy” if restrictions were placed on television election advertising to reduce the costs of campaigning.

• The Labor national executive has endorsed Rob Mitchell for a second try at McEwen, to be vacated at the next election by retiring Liberal Fran Bailey. The court ruling in Mitchell’s unsuccessful legal challenge against the 2007 result saw his margin of defeat increased from 12 to 27.

• Damien Madigan of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports the the state leadership change has inspired Labor’s national executive to delay its preselection decision for Macquarie, where Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle is expected to be named successor to the retiring Bob Debus.

• Reader Sacha Blumen points me to a Wentworth Courier article from a month ago (see page 22) naming two potential Labor candidates for Wentworth – “Paddington veterinarian Barry Nielsen and Darlinghurst barrister Phillip Boulten” – in addition to Stephen Lewis, described in last week’s edition as a Slater & Gordon lawyer, anti-high rise activist and members of the Jewish Board of Deputies. Former Australian Medical Association president Kerryn Phelps has also been mentioned in the past. This week the Courier reports the Greens have endorsed Matthew Robertson, a Darlinghurst-based legal researcher for the Refugee Advice and Casework Service.

• Antony Green berates those of us who were “examining the entrails of the booth by booth results to try and divine some patterns” from Saturday’s by-elections, arguing such entrails are only interesting for what they tell us about “how Labor voters react to the Greens as a political party”. The conclusion is that “Labor voters in the ritzier parts of Bradfield seem more likely to view the Greens as a left-wing alternative to Labor than Labor voters in less affluent areas”. Antony has since conducted some entrail examination of his own to conclude that the resulting positive relationship between the two-party Liberal vote in 2007 and the Liberal swing at the by-election is unusual for urban electorates. My own post-mortem was published in Crikey on Monday.

• The NSW Nationals have announced the state seat of Tamworth will be the laboratory for its open primary experiment, in which the party’s candidate will be chosen by a vote open to every person enrolled in the electorate. The naturally conservative seat is held by independent Peter Draper, having been in independent hands for all but two years since Tony Windsor (now the federal member for New England) won it in 1991.

• Robert Taylor of The West Australian has written an action-packed column on Labor federal preselection matters in Western Australia. It commences thus:

On the surface, the WA Labor Party’s powerful state administrative committee looks to have a straightforward job next Monday when it meets to approve candidates in crucial seats for next year’s Federal election. In typical Labor fashion, three of the candidates for the most winnable Liberal seats of Swan, Cowan and Canning are unopposed, the backroom deals having already been done between the factional powerbrokers to obviate the need for a vote and all the inherent dangers that accompany them. In Durack, where there’s an outside chance of Labor rolling incumbent Barry Haase in the redrawn Kalgooorlie-based electorate, former State Geraldton Labor MP Shane Hill is also unopposed, but that’s because he was really the only one who wanted it badly enough. In Stirling, where Labor has a second to none chance of rolling incumbent Michael Keenan, something obviously went wrong because two people decided to nominate against the favourite Louise Durack, but an upset is highly unlikely.

So the administrative committee had very little to worry about until last Thursday when the Corruption and Crime Commission released its long-awaited report on goings-on at the City of Wanneroo, which handed a couple of misconduct findings to deputy mayor Sam Salpietro and fired a salvo across the bows of Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly. The problem for Labor is that Mr Kelly is the party’s hope in the seat of Cowan, held by the Liberals Luke Simpkins with a thin 2.4 per cent margin. Labor sees a combination of the local mayor and Kevin Rudd as an irresistible combination in Cowan and had all but pencilled in the seat as a win before last week’s report. The CCC made it clear that in its opinion Mr Kelly was prepared to curry favour with former premier-turned-lobbyist Brian Burke in order to further his own political ambitions. Mr Kelly argued both at the commission and since the report came out that he did everything possible to distance himself from Mr Burke, but put bluntly the CCC just didn’t believe him – which must make the ALP’s administrative committee wonder whether the voters of Cowan will either.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has been in touch to point out an error in last week’s Newspoll post, which stated both Newspoll and the Nielsen poll were both conducted on the Friday and Saturday. Newspoll’s surveying in fact continued throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,043 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53-47”

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  3. Shanahan has been in contact to correct an error on polling start and end dates for Newspoll. That’s very, very funny.

  8. Apropos of nothing under discussion, I was thinking about Australia’s commitment to Afghanistan. Joe Bageant (“Deer Hunting with Jesus” fame) claims rather hysterically that foreign troops are merely protecting the route of a potential gas pipeline (avoiding Russia and Iran).

    Does anyone know the politics and the economics of natural gas? Australia reportedly has huge reserves – which apart from being piped into some homes for cooking, heating and HWS and powering a relatively small proportion of motor vehicles, are being sold overseas in extravagant amounts.

    Why are we importing oil to make petrol when we could be using gas? Is the problem technical? Is it transport and delivery? Or to do with monopolies/vested interests? Or other?

    Just asking.

  9. I heard Barnacle Joyce, all-yab-yab-yab about not only US debt defaults but Queensland too and where would we be and oh heaven help us the world economic dynamic would change and why isn’t the world talking about this instead of getting together to talk about climate change and oh what might befall us, wherever will we be!

    He sounded drunk, though I suspect he was in fact sober. He is a danger to himself and all who sail with him. As political comedy/ self-parody, Barnacle is fab.

  10. Even though he earns a lazy $300k from News, you just know Shannas would rather be free wheeling it with us all here at PB.

  11. Barnaby won’t be silenced!
    He’ll just take his hillbilly town hall meetings underground. That’ll show those city slickers trying to boss him about and make him stfu!
    Shhh be very very quiet now and nobody strike a match!

  12. Hi

    William, you mention analysis of Higgins.

    Antony does indeed have some nice graphs on his blog at
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/12/bradfield-and-higgins-another-note-on-the-booths.html#more

    However, if we look at the second graph on that page, we see a fairly neat almost linear relationship between Lib-2CP% and swing to Liberals. Antony does not explain this and leaves us with some vague idea that this is odd but inexplicable.

    As you may have noticed I have proposed a simple explanation for the booth swings observed at Higgins which involves two medium-sized “uniform” flows of voters going in opposite directions.

    I have just put up a graph which shows that my theory explains Antony’s observations very well.

    See http://dr–good.blogspot.com/2009/12/some-example-booth-results-from-higgins.html

    and especially the graph half-way down.

    The theory is simply that about 18% ALP voters switched to Libs rather than Greens and 10.6% of (2007-TCP-Lib) voters switched to the Greens in 2009.
    There are more details on my blog page.

    This simple model explains exactly how the ALP booths were the ones to swing most to the Libs.

  13. A Good Lurk, I do know Australia has absolutely huge gas reserves, and particularly in the coal in places like the La Trobe valley. I don’t know enough about it myself, but reckon a fair bet would be that currently the coal is still cheaper than the gas to extract and exploit when the gas is trapped in the coal.
    I suspect it’s also technical and economic in there having been too few drivers to move to gas for automobiles.

  15. Look I don’t know if poor old world finance wizard Barnyard will last until this Christmas. This is truly hillarious stuff and I reckon Labor’s approach of being calm and measured is precisly the correct resposnse to the increasinly incoherant rantings of Abbott and his cadre.

  16. It would probably take twenty squillion troops to protect a pipeline as long as the entire length of Afghanistan. That, or a well-constructed series of bribes, which would be preferable to everyone and be business-as-usual.

    Alternatively they could try and give the Taliban a fright by putting Joyce on a Afghanistani mountain top and asking him to do some retail politics.

  17. [BH, wouldn’t get too excited about Shanahan reading PB]

    Harry – it struck me as hilarious that he does and I wonder if he was just a trifle hurt by us using ‘Shamaham’ when his reading of the Rudd/Howard polls was so bad. Possum, with his deadly skills, must have hurt him too.

  18. Mr Shanahan must find this place quite disorientating. Almost no-one here respects his opinions because they are so conspicuously and reliably prejudiced. I wonder if he might redeem himself by having a forensic go at Abbot, Joyce, Minchin and their sidekick Greg Hunt (now known to be known as Grunt). These are the most intellectually dishonest and politically opportunistic bunch of wannabes since Federation. Mr S should give up being a cheerleader and take up journalism instead.

  19. We should blame “Liberal Radio”, the shockjocks have promoted Joyce as the honest speaking Aussie bloke who speaks the truth, especially Chris Smith on 2GB.

  21. Does Shana really get $300K?

    And we have been giving away better stuff (OK, some better stuff and some worse stuff, but still stuff) for FREE? William has got a doozie of a business model. William, Uncle Rupe will be seeking your advice. Make sure you charge him at least $301K.

  22. [We should blame “Liberal Radio”, the shockjocks have promoted Joyce as the honest speaking Aussie bloke who speaks the truth,]
    Yes, they are doing the country an excellent service, because no sane person would vote for any party or parties that will have Joyce as a finance minister.

  23. Boerwar,

    They would listen to the unintelligible babble, believe he’s some sort of holy imman because anyone so agitated must know what he’s talking about and then parade him around as if he was some sort of messiah: Just Like the Coalition.

  25. HSO on the previous thread asked
    [Boerwar, I still don’t understand what the term “retail politician” means. What, they sell themselves? I’d have thought there was another term for that.]
    Got me curious too. Found this description over at http://www.centeroncongress.org/radio_commentaries/retail_politics_for_the_rest_of_us.php
    […what’s called “retail politics,” the face-to-face, politician-to-voter encounters that help those running for office understand what is on people’s minds.]

  26. [We should blame “Liberal Radio”, the shockjocks have promoted Joyce as the honest speaking Aussie bloke who speaks the truth, especially Chris Smith on 2GB.]

    We should also blame the Australian and other Lib party cheersquadders: Paul Kelly can’t write a column about the Liberal party without referring constantly to Abbott as a “conviction politician”. Abbott is an opportunist and weather vane. Nothing ‘conviction’ there at all.

  27. Boerwar, now there’s an inspirational thought. Abbott and Abbott’s Army with Colonel Klink and the redoubtable Foghorn Leghorn Joyce despatched Afghanistan immediately. That’d sort out the Taliban.
    And the Opposition.

  29. [ I heard Barnacle Joyce, all-yab-yab-yab about not only US debt defaults but Queensland too and where would we be and oh heaven help us the world economic dynamic would change and why isn’t the world talking about this instead of getting together to talk about climate change and oh what might befall us, wherever will we be!

    He sounded drunk, though I suspect he was in fact sober. He is a danger to himself and all who sail with him. As political comedy/ self-parody, Barnacle is fab.]

    If the mad monk reckoned he was the love political love child of howard and brony bishop, Barnaby has got to be the political offspring of Sir Joh Bejelke. Just close your eyes and the old bloke is back *feeding the chooks* and they are lapping it all up. Well up until today.

    Just look how Joh ended up.

  31. [In Durack, where there’s an outside chance of Labor rolling incumbent Barry Haase in the redrawn Kalgooorlie-based electorate, former State Geraldton Labor MP Shane Hill is also unopposed, but that’s because he was really the only one who wanted it badly enough.]

    ABC interviewed Shane Hill on election night. He seemed rather unimpressive. His constituents obviously thought so too: delivering a big swing against him at an election where other rural Labor MPs held on against the tide.

  32. [I suspect it’s also technical and economic in there having been too few drivers to move to gas for automobiles.]

    The huge gas fields are off the NW coast of WA, where there is obviously no market for gas. To commercialize the gas reserves, it is necessary to turn it into a liquid so it can be shipped to destinations where it can be used – China, India, Japan to name the large markets. This is a highly capital intensive process and is most economically valuable if done on a large scale. Hence, the massive magnitude of the projects.

    A very minor part of the gas has been reserved for the domestic market, and even this was the subject of a protest by the gas companies, possibly because the domestic market price is lower than the world price.

    I think the market for gas as a transport fuel has been limited by the relatively few vehicles fitted with gas-converted engines, and, correspondingly, the limited retail distribution. But I think this could easily change, especially if a gas-friendly emissions trading system came into being.

  33. Does anyone know if and who was the last National or Country Party member to be either Finance or Shadow Finance Minister?

  35. I think it is a bit silly for Obama to have accepted a Nobel Peace Prize right now. It was a bit silly of the committee to offer it to him. Surely there must be somone out there who really has made a significant contribution to world peace?

    He might have increased our hopes about peace a bit but, bugger it all, the US drones are still firing their Hellfire missiles and sending various sets of people, wedding parties and so on included, to their partly random deaths. Little better than murder, IMHO.

  36. Wasn’t Kalgoorlie the electorate that Graham Campbell had for Labor before he joined One Nation. I thought it had been Labor for yonks until Campbell left it.

  37. HSO

    It is not a waste of scotch as long as you manage to get it all down eventually. The oriface of entry is of secondary importance.

  41. [ I think it is a bit silly for Obama to have accepted a Nobel Peace Prize right now. ]

    Me thinks you haven’t given your post much thought.

    You wanted him to throw it back in their faces ? Shove it ?

    Please get real. Direct your comment at those who made the award.

  42. *goes to bed, thinking, ‘why wasn’t I given a Nobel Peace Prize when I have made many significant contributions to reducing hostilities between Green and Labor Bludgers on many occasions… well, tried to… well, maybe not. Maybe Obama was better choice, but only just’*

  43. dave

    They would have discreetly sounded him out before offering it to him. If had just as discreetly said to them, honoured but would like some more runs on the board before accepting they would have understood.

  44. [Graham Campbell and Kalgoorlie sounds right to me.]

    Can’t understand then how Labor would put a dud candidate in there now. They should be going for as many seats as possible in WA.

    Thought Troy Buswell was pretty good today in his comment about the new Shadow Finance character. Good to see that some Libs are embarrassed about him.

  46. polyquats, thanks for that. Sounds like the community cabinet meetings are the sort of thing you’d do. Also sounds like the sort of thing you’s do if you wanted to survive as a politician. Then it would also depend on how widely you exposed yourself to the whole demoraphic. On that, I’d bet the community cabinets would be gathering a wider group versus Barnaby’s community hall meetings of 100 60+ white blokes and their wives up around St George.

  47. [Can’t understand then how Labor would put a dud candidate in there now. They should be going for as many seats as possible in WA.]
    Graham Campbell was a dud candidate. Keating expelled him from the party for being a racist.

  48. Dr Good, I did explain it, but in the post that William pointed to. The relationship is between the change in Liberal 2CP, swing if you like, and Labor primary vote in 2007. (The 2007 Labor primary vote is by definition the same as the change in Labor primary vote at the by-election though different in sign.) The different 2CP ‘swing’ from booth to booth is overwhelmingly related to the different rate at which Labor voters switched to the Greens at the booths. A primary vote change.

    The Liberal primary vote in in 2007, the Labor primary vote in 2007, and the Liberal 2PP in 2007 are all correlated. Off the three, the variation in Labor primary vote explains more of the variation in Liberal 2CP swing than either 2007 Liberal primary vote or Liberal 2PP vote. That is the explanation of the swing. My post that you point to plots swing vs Liberal 2CP, but more of the variation is explained by the Labor primary vote than the 2CP. In Higgins, the relationship is even stronger.

    What you have done in your blog post is explain a relationship between Liberal 2PP by booth in 2007 with Liberal 2CP by booth at the by-election. The two will always be massivley correlated. Your model has come up with numbers that match the data very well, but your data was well correlated in the first place. Your model explains why the two percentages are correlated, but it doesn’t explain why the differences between the percentages are also correlated. Your model matches the data but it doesn’t explain the data. As I said in the previous post, there is not a uniform of rate of Labor voters switching to the Greens. Your analysis relies upon something called a Labor TCP voter and a Green TCP, but given the primary vote explains more about the swing than the 2CP, why bother.

  49. [ *thinks, ‘Should I have told Dave about being sounded out?…* ]

    *Thinks, BW is sort of ok. Nowhere near as bad as bob1234, but still living in cloud Cuckoo land*

    *thinks – someone has got to tell BW somewhere along the line*

  50. [Keating expelled him from the party for being a racist.]

    ShowsOn – that brought it all back to me.

    Antony – you blinded me with those beaut graphs and thanks for your super dissection of the by-elections.

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