Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
Vera, it is News Ltd, what else did you expect? High quality journalism? 😉
1296
Lowest candidate gets eliminated, I believe.
Why people get personal with each other, unprovoked, is beyond me.
[I guess the Liberals could split into 3 separate parties:
1. The Moderate Liberals
2. The Conservative Liberals
3. The Very Right Wing Liberals/Nutjobs]
The slightly Liberal party
the slightly liberal Liberal party
The liberal Liberal party
the liberally slight Liberals
The liberally liberal Liberals
the liberally liberal Liberal party
or
The liberally silly Liberal party
Is it beyond the realms of possibility that Mesma might offer herself up as a “compromise candidate”? 😀
[Does anybody know how the Liberal Party vote for leader system operates?]
I believe that there is a first round vote, if one candidate gets 50% + 1 vote they are immediately declared the winner. I believe that would require one candidate to get 42 votes in the first round.
If no candidate gets 50%+1, then the candidate with the least votes is excluded, and there is a second round with the last two candidates to determine the winner.
If in the first round the 2nd and 3rd ranked candidates are tied, there is a special round to determine who will go into the second round.
[I lived the end of Franco’s time in Spain – my family was always Republican with no man left after the Civil War.]
Did they meet George Orwell?
BTW Where is Generic Person? Was the ban William put on him permanent?
[before I logg off and after a cyggy…..calling me a Liberal troll is hilarious. You may not see the joke – I do.
I lived the end of Franco’s time in Spain – my family was always Republican with no man left after the Civil War.
Night guys.]
Some are quick on the draw here.
Dont take offence as it is rarely meant personally.
apols from the rest of us
[The slightly Liberal party
the slightly liberal Liberal party
The liberal Liberal party
the liberally slight Liberals
The liberally liberal Liberals
the liberally liberal Liberal party
or
The liberally silly Liberal party]
The raving loony party?
Ania: sorry about that!
Didn’t mean to offend!
I better think next time before I type!
[The raving loony party?]
Isnt that the nats?
I cannot imagine why Hockey would run unless he was convinced that the right would make Turnbull’s leadership untenable and further damage the party. To retain at least some credibility he would have to allow the ETS pass.
But would he run if Abbott does? If he brings about an Abbott victory his name will be dirt on the moderate’s side and of course he is not one of the others either. He becomes mud.
[Isnt that the nats?]
Ah true. Should have known it would already be taken!
that would be wet dirt.
[The liberal Liberal party]
The Liberal Liberal Party.
The Iliberal Liberal Party.
The Liberal Iliberal Party.
[But would he run if Abbott does?]
Abbott is definitely running. And that makes it more likely that Hockey will run and win.
Hockey is probably really worried that if Abbott goes head to head with Turnbull he will win just because of Turnbull’s unpopularity.
[Hockey is probably really worried that if Abbott goes head to head with Turnbull he will win just because of Turnbull’s unpopularity.]
I want to see the Liberal Party collapse with People Skills as leader.
Thanks for the input re liberal voting.
Pursuing the idea that lowest vote drops out then surely that would mean one of the 2 pro ETS types, Turnbull and hockey, would be third as they would be splitting the pro ETS vote and the the third candidate, Abbott, would get all the anti ETS votes which I am led to believe is somewhere in the vicinity of half the party?
1305
If I remember correctly Andrews`s spill motion was 48-35. This adds up to a total of 83 (not including any abstentions or absences) which is an odd number of votes. Half of this is 41.5 and so 42 is 50%+1/2 not 50%+1 and 42 still wins so the rule is in fact 50%+1/2.
[THE NUMBERS: Impossibly tight Turnbull v Abbott contest, cakewalk for Hockey if he runs]
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7516/the-numbers-impossibly-tight-turnbull-v-abbott-contest-cakewalk-for-hockey-if-he-runs/
What is up with Bolt? I always thought he was a rational intelligent person on the ‘right’. He reminds me of those cold call evangelist who sometimes arrive on your door step on a Saturday morning.
Who knows what’s going on inside Hockey’s head?
I doubt even he knows!
Alas he’s allowed himself to be used by Minchin, and perhaps too late he realised that the right weren’t going to offer him a viable deal on climate change that he could sell to the electorate, so that’s why he started embracing the “ETS conscience vote” option”. But Abbott wouldn’t have a bar of that one, so that’s why we’ve got the 3 way contest.
If Hockey’s numbers start drifting to Abbott, Hockey and Turnball will have to pool their resources and decide which of them is the stronger candidate to take on Abbott, because the right taking full control of the Liberals tomorrow spells decades in the electoral wilderness for them.
1314
You forgot the Illiberal Illiberal Party!
[I want to see the Liberal Party collapse with People Skills as leader.]
And with the CPRS passed thanks to some floor crossing. 😀
Turnball stays as leader, the CPRS passes, a whole load of Liberal moderates are promoted to shadow cabinet, Minchin and his acolytes leave and join One Nation.
Ideal scenario if I take off my Labor supporters hat and pretend I’m a non-committed voter!
Put my Labor supporters hat back on, and it’s Abbott to win! 😉
Nite all, fun times tomorrow morning! 😀
I thought I better read this before closing the tab and couldn’t believe my eyes!
Shannahan is so far out of the loop it is “loopy”! Tomorrows rant should be good! 😉
[The prime objective of the Liberal Party now is to unify itself and Hockey, Dutton and Abbott have all demonstrated a wish for consensus on personnel and policy.
The Liberals will now be led by a popular leader seen to be a conciliator who has accepted compromise on the ETS to satisfy the party membership and heal the divisions within the parliamentary party. The final result will be that the Liberals, like the Nationals, have decided to try to restore their lost bedrock support by deferring the ETS instead of trying to go after swinging voters who voted for Rudd at the last election.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/after-the-tumult-libs-get-back-on-track/story-e6frg6zo-1225805155391
turnbull has been in the hardnosed end of business.
he faced down KP and had howies measure.
can anyone seriously believe that the pussys that now call themselves liberals can stand up to him.
howard had them whipped like dirty dogs and turnbull is doing the sam though with the added spice of his accumulated business nous.
he would have said stuff it along time ago if he didnt have the powder in his locker.
Plus the pull of filthy lucre would turn many a drifter into a supporter.
mal aint just an MP, he is an institution in the big end of town
minchin and abbott have nowhere near the clout he can pull out
I suspect both are contemplating the repercussions of their actions
On the porcelain bowl, of course
1319
The problem is that the cake is mouldy raw chicken cake that is guaranteed to cause political death in 18 months or less.
Scorpio
I like what Peter Hartcher has to say much better 😉
[The charitable characterisation is Hockey is putting party unity first. The harsher interpretation is he is guilty of an extraordinary abrogation of leadership.
Rather than accepting the leader’s burden of making a judgment on the hard choices, Hockey will advance whatever policy is chosen by the party.
He is willing to put his career and the Opposition’s prospects at the whim of the party room.
Turnbull will go to his political death defending Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme.
Support for Turnbull’s leadership has been hollow since the Godwin Grech fake email affair six months ago. He survived only so long as there was an absence of a challenger.
Now Turnbull seeks to give meaning to his brief term as Opposition Leader. He will go down as a man of principle rather than just another failed politician. The Rudd Government, after tormenting him endlessly, will suddenly adopt him as a great man.
In the event that Abbott or, more likely, Hockey, wins, the Government will start the torments over again.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-to-die-for-honour-20091130-k170.html
nice piece from one of the few journalists left
http://bit.ly/5h8ZJx
I can see by this when the deal with Abbott was stitched up by Mesmer but I wonder what happened when she met with Turnbull & Hockey?
Probably to tell them the good news of her new partnership with the monk and got told in return to get lost! 😉
[Mr Hockey had emerged from his own office just after midday with Senator Minchin, along with Eric Abetz and Andrew Robb, and immediately walked to Mr Turnbull’s office.
As the meeting was taking place Mr Abbott also went into a meeting with deputy leader Julie Bishop.
Mr Abbott later left Ms Bishop’s office, saying that Mr Hockey was “a big boy and he can speak for himself”.
Immediately after Mr Abbott left the deputy Liberal leader’s office Ms Bishop emerged and went into Mr Turnbull’s suite down the corridor for further talks with the leader and Mr Hockey.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-and-joe-hockey-are-heading-to-a-leadership-showdown/story-e6frgczf-1225805445067
[RT @RichardTuffin: @annabelcrabb “any boss that sacks an employee for taking [tomorrow] off (to watch the #spill) is a bastard” #bobhawk …]
What are the main outlets for tomorrow morning’s coverage?
Sorry if this is old but I found this link to the Newspoll data:
[annabelcrabb
1. Joe Hockey’s now gone from being consensus candidate to compromise candidate. A bit trickier for him. Turnbull’s fortunes lift. #spill]
TP
she has been reading pollbludger again
😉
This explains where Julie B has been… on the couch at the Sydney Institute.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/howard-not-the-man-to-give-advice-on-changing-leaders-20091130-k0zi.html
I’m Shannahan I’m Shannahan
I like to eat green eggs and ham
People Spills, ShowsOn.
Just had a quick look at this piece by Steve Lewis and it is clear to me that since the Grech episode, he seems to be somewhat left out of the loop!
The article is just second-hand gossip and guesswork! And very poor guesswork at that!
Serves the beggar right! 😉
[MALCOLM Turnbull is now Liberal Party leader in name only.
Defiant, even arrogant, in his self-belief, Mr Turnbull was last night still not conceding that all was lost.
But he is being delusional. The brutal reality is this: he will be deposed as Liberal leader by tomorrow, either by stepping aside voluntarily or being blasted out.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/its-all-over-for-defiant-leader/story-e6frf7jo-1225805152950
Steve Lewis had very little credibility to begin with. He now has none.
If Hockey is LOTO then Rudd will have to be careful how he approaches attacking him, in fact Rudd would need to leave a lot of it up to others.
If they go too hard or too nasty on Hockey early he will get a sympathy vote and Rudd will get a backlash as being a bit too low. Poor old nice Joe with a new kid and all and all those nasty liberals around and of course they were mates, and he saved Rudd at Kokoda.
It will be a tricky thing to manage. So they should just stick to facts and the policy slip ups that Hockey and co always make. Not to mention the puppeteers behind hte scenes.
TP,
[If they go too hard or too nasty on Hockey early he will get a sympathy vote and Rudd will get a backlash as being a bit too low. Poor old nice Joe with a new kid and all and all those nasty liberals around and of course they were mates, and he saved Rudd at Kokoda.]
They could just ignore Joe! There is so much ammunition that Labor can use against the others that they won’t have enough time before the election to use it all up! 😉
Similar problems, different country.
[A party both united and divided
Opposition to Obama is strong, but Republicans are split on GOP’s direction and leaders
The Republican rank and file is largely in sync with GOP lawmakers in their staunch opposition to efforts by President Obama and Democrats to enact major health-care legislation, but a new Washington Post poll also reveals deep dissatisfaction among GOP voters with the party’s leadership as well as ideological and generational differences that may prove big obstacles to the party’s plans for reclaiming power. ]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/29/AR2009112902935.html
Here’s a really good run-down on the days events as they unfolded as well as all the figures for the different votes that took place, especially the shonky one that Minchin based his attempt to roll the ETS and Turnbull!
Also an indication of just what a hypocritical mongrel Minchin is!
[IN ONE of the more ironic moments in the Liberal leadership saga, Nick Minchin, kingmaker and attack dog of the party’s right wing, addressed Coalition senators yesterday morning.
There Minchin, with blood on the walls after a week’s intense infighting, urged them to keep things civil and to treat each with ”tolerance, kindness and compassion”.
His message for moderate senators contemplating breaking ranks and siding with the Government to guillotine debate and pass the emissions trading scheme was that they should give advance notice and not ambush their colleagues.
Someone interjected, saying it would have been nice had Minchin given Malcolm Turnbull notice of Andrew Robb’s ambush in the party room last week.
That Minchin could offer such advice with a straight face amazed some of the moderates who had watched the Senate leader and his allies rip Turnbull apart in the past week. Shadow cabinet had agreed by 14 to six to do a deal on the scheme once the Government offered $7 billion in concessions.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/minchin-plays-nice-guy-after-the-party-has-soured-20091130-k17f.html
Awesome
[The world’s largest atom smasher on Monday broke the record for proton acceleration previously held by a U.S. lab, sending beams of the particles at 1.18 trillion electron volts around the massive machine.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/30/hadron-collider-big-bang-_n_373542.html
Talk about being out of the loop! This is the latest bit of confected nonsense from Steve Lewis! The work experience kid from high-school could come up with something better than this!
[THEY once shared the love on Seven’s high-rating Sunrise program, trekked Kokoda’s gruelling path in solidarity and called each other “mate”.
But when next year’s federal election comes around, it is likely that Kevin Rudd and Joe Hockey will contest the top job.
For more than five years, Rudd and Hockey were part of the Sunrise “family”, reaching out to a vast early Friday morning audience with their folksy sparring.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-and-joe-hockey-shared-genuine-mateship-on-channel-7s-sunrise/story-e6frf7jo-1225805512013
Talk about classic! The leadership poll on the last HS , Lewis piece, doesn’t even include Malcolm Turnbull!
The poll is closed after only a total of 82 votes and includes Peter Dutton with 0 votes!
Full list is; Abbott, Hockey, Dutton, Andrews, Bishop, Robb, Minchin, Pyne!
Anyone would think that News Ltd has cut Turnbull loose!
I hope he gets up tomorrow, just to spite them! What a mob of wankers!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-and-joe-hockey-shared-genuine-mateship-on-channel-7s-sunrise/story-e6frf7jo-1225805512013
Crikey, another Steve Lewis! This one wants to knock off Turnbull’s Wentworth seat for Labor!
[LABOR is set to run another Jewish lawyer in an attempt to seize Malcolm Turnbull’s marginal seat of Wentworth, but it will be determined not to repeat the disastrous campaign of the human rights lawyer George Newhouse.
Steven Lewis, who heads Slater & Gordon’s commercial litigation team, has put up his hand to become Labor’s candidate in the once blue-ribbon Liberal seat – and he says it is ”very winnable for Labor”.
Mr Lewis and senior Labor figures insist that no candidate has yet been endorsed for the seat, but he is regarded as a strong local candidate, albeit without the high profile of Mr Newhouse, who had been Waverley mayor.
Mr Turnbull has told confidantes that he will not quit and force a byelection, but he is yet to decide whether he will seek another term.
He was the only MP in a Liberal-held seat to increase his margin at the last election – from 2.5 per cent to 3.9 per cent.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/next-race-for-turnbull-starts-in-his-backyard-20091130-k17e.html