Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
the polls are pointing to the beginning of the killing season.
I note that the so-called gentleman’s agreement between Newspoll and Nielson to not release on the same day has been waived. Not entirely surprising but definitely contradicts what was touted as the reason for withholding poll numbers a couple of weeks ago.
An interesting few days ahead. An article in the SMH confirms my suspicion that the Government will find it extremely hard to guillotine debate today and after that… all bets are off.
Ah, yes; thought Newspoll would do an overnighter and would release early if it favoured the contenders. So 2pp is 57/43 and Lib support is lower than a third.
Still can’t see why Dutton, given his electorate – and a fair whack of the Q LNP – are far from being fans. After this, McFarlane, one of the LNP’s senior figures, won’t be in the Dutton Fan Club.
So, whatever happen from now on, the Coalition will go to the next election as Climate Change deniers, heading for a landslide of epic proportions.
In a couple of weeks, we’ll have Copenhagen targets; and they don’t seem likely to reflect the Coalition’s stance.
Dear god, who are the 35-37% of people still voting for the Liberal party??
Looks like the Nats are thinking of leaving the coalition.
[The National Party says public support for its anti-emissions trading scheme stance has gone from a trickle to a torrent.
Brad Henderson is the party’s federal director.
“Particularly in the last fortnight, it has developed into a torrent to the point where we are taking literally thousands of calls on a daily basis in each of our MPs’ and senators’ offices,” he said.
“If we had our time again perhaps we would look at [having candidates in the seats of Bradfield and Higgins].
“We’ll have to sit down now and consider whether we do offer people the choice of supporting the Nationals in other areas.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/30/2756756.htm?section=justin
It just keeps getting better. 🙂
Wow, Ru, pre-selection brawls in the offing! Shades of Joh’s 2-way contests.
Tho I guess if you’re pwned by a Hinze-like King Coal, you’re back to the White shoe brigade, and destroying the Libs might become more of a priority than knocking off the ALP.
Joh’s Ghost for Canberra?
If Hockey runs and wins, you really need to question his political judgement and personal character.
Politically, why would you lead a Party that is heading for a train wreck.
Personally, you will be forever branded as the puppet of the looney Right and John Howard. That photo of him leaving John Howard and with John Howard in the background leeering is enough to condemn him.
Pity we have to wait until February for the next round of QT; tho by then, the government’s front bench will have refined “welchers”, “deal breakers”, “not a man of his word”, “more positions than the Karma Sutra”, “Weather vane”, check watch, ask, “I know what your position was yesterday; but what’s it today?”, “All you need for the Liberals to welch on a deal is for Shock Jocks and Bolt to beat up a scare campaign, and the Deniers spambots go into action. You know the emails. They start, ‘Though I’ve voted Liberal (or ALP, or whatever) all my life, I will never vote for you again'” etc to slogans as funny as they are deadly.
The CPRS now depends on whether enough moderate Libs break ranks and either vote with the government or ignore the division bells (probably the latter). It must be very tempting to the ones who know they won’t get a ministry in the New Order, might not survive a DD election, and will spend the rest of their Parliamentary career on the Opposition benches. In Q, the Nats will want more than one winnable seat; after all, who dominated the LNP!
All this because some Liberals hate Rudd enough to want to spite him at Copenhagen and are prepared to wreck their own party and its electoral chances!
Like a pack of Year 9 scrags!
What’s the bet this thread weill go past 4000 ?
weill = will
[Dear god, who are the 35-37% of people still voting for the Liberal party??]
Having handed out how-to-vote cards at a few elections for two different parties, I would say that around one third of the Australian electorate are psychologicaly or intellectually incapable of chosing a new party. When they are congregated so that they comprise more than 50% of a single seat, that seat is “safe”. There are also a lot more who are too apathetic to change. I would say no more than 30% of voters really think about it and vote accordingly.
[“If I’ve got something to say to my leader, I’ll say it to him directly first. I’m not telegraphing anything through other people, and that is my form.”]
Yet “sources” are saying Hockey has made up his mind and will run. Who are these “sources”?
If Rudd wants to improve his popularity again, he could start by not doing any more things like this:
[Last week, the ALP announced it will extend Howard’s school chaplaincy program, adding $42.8 million to the $165 million already committed by taxpayers.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/believers-45m-atheists-nil-20091127-jw77.html
As one of Australia’s many atheists, I too wish Rudd would stop using my tax money to buy votes from a religeous minority who are fond of talking about values but usually prefer cash.
The irony is I think that decisions like this cost Labor more votes than they win. A lot of the religeous fundys are in the 35-37% of voters Dewgong mentioned that always vote Liberal.
[All this because some Liberals hate Rudd enough to want to spite him at Copenhagen and are prepared to wreck their own party ]
Yes, it is now a blind hatred,as well as wrecking their party they are also willing to damage Australia if they feel it denies Rudd any kudos.
Some in labor had a hatred of Howard, but not as blind, widespread or unstable as the libs hatred.
Just listening to RN and Fran K. online up in the UK. Fran K. continues to be a mouth piece for the Liberals.
I don’t think the Libs will cop the full fallout of the ETS until they actually make a decision on who to support and the fate of the ETS. At the moment, both pro-ETS and anti-ETS people can back the Libs in the hope they’ll do what the person hopes. Once they make a decision on the ETS, the Libs could well lose some more support.
As for the polls, I think Labor should take note of the fact that it HASN”T seen a bounce in its favour. The majority of Australians want at ETS. If it is even perceived that Rudd has deferred that to politically wedge his opponents, he will lose popularity. If the coaltion rejects the ETS and he doesn’t hold a DD for tactical reasons, again, Rudd will lose popularity and deservedly so. The ETS and Workchoices were the ONLY major differences in policy that Rudd took to the last election. He is expected to deliver on them in this government.
[the ALP announced it will extend Howard’s school chaplaincy program, adding $42.8 million to the $165 million already committed by taxpayers]
Go figure, yesterday Fergusson was escorted from a public swimming pool full of kiddies. Today the government gives money so that the filth in the church can get closer to kiddies. If parents want their kids to get close to filth they can always take them to church. There is a reason why so few kiddies go to church now.
castle
Recently a friend of mine was killed crossing the road trying to help his daughter, whose car had broken down.
He was a school chaplain, he was universally loved in the community, he would help anyone in need without question.
Your comment is filth. 🙁
Socrates #13
I agree. My son attended a government school (late Joh era) infested by fundies (the big 4 – RC, Anglican, Uniting & Lutheran – were far less aggressive) who had themselves invited as school chaplins. They targeted vulnerable kids trying to cope with home problems like family break-up, alcoholism, domestic violence etc. One successfully convinced a group that the world would end in 1993, so they were wasting their time swotting – something some resented bitterly after 1993.
Last week, the ALP announced it will extend Howard’s school chaplaincy program, adding $42.8 million to the $165 million already committed by taxpayers.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/believers-45m-atheists-nil-20091127-jw77.html
[As one of Australia’s many atheists, I too wish Rudd would stop using my tax money to buy votes from a religeous minority who are fond of talking about values but usually prefer cash.]
Keeping the chaplaincy program going is a cheaper option than taking them all away and then having to replace them with secular school counselors. And it is a gesture to the religious swingers.
[Dear god, who are the 35-37% of people still voting for the Liberal party??]
WorkChoices addicts who stand to directly benefit from ripping off others. Racists, rednecks, CEOs, the senile, etc.
[Hockey set to take on Turnbull]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
Hockey set to turn on Turnbull more like it.
Socrates #17. Newspoll, at least, was taken Friday & Saturday, before her Maj’s speech was well aired on TV. If the Coalition rolls the CPRS before Copenhagen’s full airing … during the Silly Season here, when ‘real news’, as distinct from ‘gossip, crime & accident reports’, is hard to find.
OTOH, Newspoll has the Libs on 30%, Nats on 5%, so I’m guessing the former are primarily GenBluers who don’t like anything new, and the latter … well, the sort whose idea of a fine pollie is Joh-like – a Barnaby or Bob Katter. I think those figures are ‘bedrock’ and will (esp for the Libs) shift only as supporter die.
Sorry …. “when ‘real news’, as distinct from ‘gossip, crime & accident reports’, is hard to find, Copenhagen will get good coverage.
I can’t see the preferred PM figures over at OO. I know Turnbull was 14% but what was Kev?
Ltep, was waiting for this question of O’Shannasey this morning, but alas it wasnt asked. Maybe I’ll try emailing them
Socrates @ 13,
As a rusted-on Labor atheist (ex-RC), Hear! Hear!
Did I hear correctly, Bob Brown will move a motion to allow the Senate to have a day off today?
Lazy buggers. 🙂
[But during the weekend, the line between Turnbull and Howard took on a chill. The Age believes Howard’s message to Turnbull was to throw in the towel for the good of the party. Whether he used those words is unknown, but Howard’s former lieutenant, Alexander Downer, delivered the message directly.]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/kingmaker-howard-gives-hockey-his-blessing-20091129-jyw5.html
It is chilling that the dead hands of Howard and Downer are raised yet again. No good can come of no good and I am disappointed that it looks as though the Slopster is going to be the Brutus.
Howard told Turnbull to move on for the good of the party?? Pot. Kettle. Black. So glad we are rid of the horrible man
[Did I hear correctly, Bob Brown will move a motion to allow the Senate to have a day off today?
Lazy buggers]
No. To finish at 10 tonight and start again 10 tomorrow.
He also has stated they won’t support any Coalition moves to refer the bills to a committee inquiry.
ruawake
My sympathy about your chaplain friend. I am an atheist but have nothing against the religeous people who help others based on their faith. I am opposed to using state funds to prop any faith up though; it should be a personal choice. My remarks were more aimed at the evangelists, who I find are often quite manipulative.
entre nous
[Keeping the chaplaincy program going is a cheaper option than taking them all away and then having to replace them with secular school counselors. And it is a gesture to the religious swingers.]
How do you know that? Has there been a corresponding drop in funding of school counsellors?
Do they fulfill the same roles? What about situations like vulnerable teenage girls who probably need advice to get a termination of pregnancy? Will a chaplain tell them that? My understanding of the chaplaincy program was that it was primarily about religeous education. If it was about counselling, what guarantee is there that religeous values won’t be inserted for community values? The two aren’t the same. If they were, we wouldn’t have religeous groups blocking legislation like voluntary euthanasia, which 80% of Australians support, but governments oppose.
Is there any polling of Rudd vs Hockey as PPM? Given the circumstances in which he will come to the leadership, and given his public persona of being amiable, affable but also ineffectual, I’m guessing he will get a reasonably good result on his performance as LOTO, but will have a terrible PPM result. I guess we’ll soon find out!
Castle at 18-to describe all people in the church as “filth” and to infer that school chaplains are all child molesters is ridiculous and disgraceful.
Howard’s real political heir is Abbott. Howard, Abbott and Minchin are setting up Hockey to kill the CPRS, and then to take the fall at the 2010 elections. Abbott will then take the leadership in time for 2013. Hockey appears to be too stupid to see how he is being used.
Did I hear that the ALP is distributing cash to Big Coal rather than taking the bold steps necessary to tackle climate change?
Lazy buggers!
Socrates
Your points are valid. No evidence to back my assertion but a half remembered interview from some time back when the pros and cons of the program were being discussed.
Was it my imagination that Fran Kelly this morning was trying to suggest that today’s polls are bad for Rudd & Labor? Yep, you all are correct, she is a mouthpiece for the Coalition. The sooner she goes on holidays and Geraldine Doogue takes over, the better!
As expected, the polls show a surge for Turnbull among Labor voters but a slump in voting intention overall. Pretty predictable.
As stated above:
[Dear god, who are the 35-37% of people still voting for the Liberal party??]
[Yes, it is now a blind hatred,as well as wrecking their party they are also willing to damage Australia if they feel it denies Rudd any kudos.]
The two go hand in hand.
Labor supporters are not entirely innocent in the latter. I, for one, was pleased when Howard died a death at APEC 2007, as exemplified by the Chaser stunt and Rudd’s Mandarin-speaking episode. I saw Howard trying to pull a stunt, trying to impress the plebs in Voterland with his “mates” from overseas. This was planned years in advance as the high point of the pre-election campaign. I was glad it bombed.
As to being rusted on, I could never conceive myself voting Liberal, not in a pink fit. I try to justify this to myself with rationality, but it’s just because this is the way I was brought up. I araldited in (even if stopping short of being a member of the Labor Party itself).
Having said all this, it is a very bad look for a politician (particularly if prancing around as a “statesman”) to publicly admit to these sentiments. These things should be kept to members offices and private party meetings.
So according to Michelle Gratten and Shanahack, Turnball is just meant to shut up, take his betrayal quietly, go off to the back bench and be a good little foot soldier until the next election!
UGH!
What ignoring Kyoto has cost us
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Kyoto-Protocols-coal-electricity-climate-change-pd20091130-Y9RRZ?OpenDocument&src=sph
[ We are now reaping the consequences of not taking the Kyoto Protocols seriously enough; 12 years later we still have 85 per cent of our electricity generated by coal, a lot of it brown coal, and coal remains our largest export.
This has allowed the size of the average Australian home to become the largest in the world.
…The climate change sceptics have lost the argument, and so have the carbon taxers: momentum continues to build for a global scheme to create tradeable carbon emissions permits.
It means countries that have been building nuclear power stations, wind farms, solar arrays, hydro power and using more gas over the past 12 years will soon have an advantage over Australia because we haven’t been doing those things
Instead we’ve been sailing along happily with coal and enjoying electricity prices at least 50 per cent below the rest of the world.
Now we are facing not only a huge increase in electricity prices over the next five years with enormous disruption to industries and businesses, but also an extremely dangerous political convulsion.
The conservatives are on the brink of splitting over the proposed emissions trading scheme, which would cause a permanent change to our political structure and entrench Labor in power for decades.
It may be that by putting off the Senate debate on the ETS Joe Hockey can keep the pro- and anti-ETS factions together on the conservative side of politics more successfully than Malcolm Turnbull has been able to.
If the US plus a few more countries come up with emissions trading schemes next year, even Wilson Tuckey and Barnaby Joyce will presumably have to bow to the inevitable.
At which point life in Australia will begin to change. On Inside Business yesterday, Michael Hitchens of the Australian Industry Greenhouse Network told me the government is underestimating the price of carbon permits.
The latest government assumption is $26; Hitchens says it is more likely to be $35-40 – something we can’t control because our permits will be internationally tradeable and Australian emitters will be able to import them.
That means electricity prices will rise by 30 per cent, not 15 per cent. Even a 15 per cent increase in the price of electricity across the board would have a big effect on the structure of the economy; 30 per cent in a hurry would be devastating. And that assumes the coalition is still in one piece.
By ignoring Kyoto, John Howard has a lot to answer for. ]
entre nous # 26 I can’t find Rudd’s PPM rating either. One could bet it didn’t go down, and have a flutter on “too stellar to do anything else but stroke his reputed (by Libs) ego at CHOGM & Copenhagen.
Alan Jones’ Comment’ was gold this morning. Because the article in the Oz about the Libs losing 20 seats didn’t fit his agenda, the Canberra press gallery are all hacks and in Rudd’s pocket.
At least he’s consistent, the article was based of factual polling data involving ‘science’, which as we know from the AGW debate is bunkum.
I am going to join Diog in the wRONg-ness stakes. I reckon the media hacks have got it wrong and Hockey will not challenge.
“My leader” is an odd way to refer to someone you are about to roll.
Good point about the missing PPM figure. Hockey may be preferred by most as Liberal leader because of his ability to stop the unpleasant public feuding. But that is just damage control. It doesn’t mean that people see him as a serious alternative PM, which is a lot harder.
One letter writer in today’s SMH is condeming the talkback radio shockjocks, especially Alan Jones, for their campaign to blast Turnball out of the Liberal leadership.
More of the same from that tool Steve Price this morning, ie. the ETS is evil, Rudd is a fraud, today’s polls can’t be believed, Nick Minchin and his lot are heroes for saving us from an evil tax.
Don’t forget that Price’s wife works for Hockey! 😉
What will be Sloppy Joe’s alternative policy!
Presumably something rubberstamped by Minchin. 😉
ltep 2
[I note that the so-called gentleman’s agreement between Newspoll and Nielson to not release on the same day has been waived. Not entirely surprising but definitely contradicts what was touted as the reason for withholding poll numbers a couple of weeks ago.]
It would be nice if we could interview pollsters! One wonders if we will ever see the vanished 2PP figure. I suspect it will remain forever in the “unreportable news” category as far as News Corp are concerned.
Today’s desk calendar quote:
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.
– Napoleon Bonaparte
How apt.
To offer Rudd a constructive suggestion, a friend on an email group I receive suggested that they should plant a veggie patch at the lodge and/or Kirribilli, similar to what Michelle Obama has done at the White House. It has many advantages – can involve community, is sustainable, healthy, encourages other people to adopt a healthier lifestyle, and is even good in terms of GHG emissions (carbon absorbed, less food miles).
I can’t think of any downside. He could ask Peter Cundle to come up and advise how to lay one out properly.