Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44

Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.

On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.

Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.

On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.

On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. Now I’ve seen everything! The Libs have gone absolutely stark raving crazy!

    Who would have ever believed just a week ago that the likes of Gerard Henderson would be giving Howard a backhander like this! lol 😉

    [Howard not the man to give advice on changing leaders]
    [It is not clear why either Hockey or Turnbull or any other influential Liberals would seek advice on leadership issues from Howard. In fact, Howard is primarily responsible for the Liberal Party’s present leadership problems. In October 2001, Howard told The Australian’s Paul Kelly that he was critical of the way Labor failed to manage an orderly handover from Bob Hawke to Paul Keating in the late 1980s or early 1990s. Howard specifically praised the way in which the Liberal Party’s founder, Robert Menzies, had handed over the prime ministership to Harold Holt in early 1966.

    In other words, Howard well understood the need for a long-serving prime minister to pass on his or her office. It was Howard’s unwillingness to arrange a leadership succession midway through his fourth term that has left the Liberals all but leaderless today. The former prime minister claims he had intended retiring sometime in 2006, but refrained from doing so lest he seemed to be responding to pressure from Costello and his supporters. In fact, Howard never made an unambiguous decision to leave the top job.]

    [Howard was one of Australia’s most influential post-war prime ministers – along with Menzies, Hawke and Keating. But he should not be regarded as the ”go-to” Liberal when counsel is being sought on leadership matters.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/howard-not-the-man-to-give-advice-on-changing-leaders-20091130-k0zi.html

  2. There’s a good bit of reading for people to start off their morning!

    I’m off to bed. Lets see what the morning brings.

    Today was hard to top, but I reckon the mornings spill and the Senate proceedings should be gold!

  3. What the Liberal Party election rules for a three candidate ballot in the party room tomorrow morning? Preferential. First past the post? Second ballot after one candidate is excluded? (Apologies if this question has been asked before.)

  5. Interesting. On the front page of the OO online:

    “TROGLODYTE: Minchin was a tobacco sceptic ”

    [Simon Chapman, professor of public health at Sydney University, who appeared before the Senate committee, yesterday recalled other witnesses reeling with disbelief at Senator Minchin’s “troglodyte” views.

    “It was like going into a timewarp, because the case against the tobacco industry was so well-established by then,” Professor Chapman said. “Minchin represented the far end of antipathy towards any intervention in the tobacco industry.”]

  7. hockey will turn out to be one of the great liberal leaders. He will lead by following the instruction of the powerful of his Party. A rare gift.

  8. [hockey will turn out to be one of the great liberal leaders. He will lead by following the instruction of the powerful of his Party. A rare gift.]

    And I’m pulling an allnighter as all the fun ad games start at 6am WA time

  10. Gee, these seats are comfortable, aren’t they. Pass the popcorn please!

    Here’s something for us to enjoy while waiting for the main act.

    Bernard Keane – Hockey will lead the Liberal Party to disaster
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/30/hockey-will-lead-the-liberal-party-to-disaster/

    [Hockey will be exactly what Nick Greiner and Malcolm Turnbull said yesterday – a puppet of Nick Minchin and the party’s conservatives. Hockey lacks the intellectual heft and political nous to be anything but a figurehead in what will assuredly be a Minchin Regency.

    …his indiscipline, his inability to master a detailed brief, his tendency to resort to bullying when he doesn’t like what someone says

    … Hockey will lead them to a disaster far worse than Turnbull would have managed.]

  11. [latikambourke

    Joe Hockey finally speaks. (well his office.) He contesteth, but will not vote againt Malcolm. No blood on his hands. #spill 6 minutes ago from Echofon ]

  12. Aussie MSM rating an F- on the lead-up to Copenhagen? OK, here’s The Independent (UK) The teeny part of my brain that constructs conspiracy is wondering if one of the reasons for the current Lib chaos is to mask what’s going on internationally … (Of course, totally hiding Rudd & any truimph he might achieve is already taken for granted).

    Countdown to Copenhagen: A change in the political climate on emissions

    It hasn’t made massive headlines in Europe; in fact it’s hardly been noticed. But over the last fortnight, three big countries have made major new pledges to cut their emissions of carbon dioxide from industry, transport and deforestation which is causing climate change.

    Since 12 November, Russia, South Korea and Brazil have all announced new targets for cutting CO2, leading to a significant improvement in hopes for the outcome of the Copenhagen climate summit, which is now only two weeks away – and which, it was announced yesterday, at least 65 world leaders will attend ….

    These are very significant straws in the wind ahead of the summit in the Danish capital, indicating that nations on both sides of the world’s wealth divide are coming round to the view that doing nothing is no longer an option for anyone.

    The hope is, of course, that the leaders of the two camps, the USA and China, the world’s biggest CO2 emitters, accounting between them for 40 per cent of the total, will make pledges of their own to cut carbon – otherwise no deal will be possible. So far, they have not.

    Yet it is looking increasingly likely this week that the US will after all put an emissions target on the table, resolving what we characterised here last week as President Barack Obama’s lonely dilemma – can he act ahead of the Senate, where US climate legislation is currently stalled?

    Lots of links to other pertinent articles.

    Here’s The Guardian’s Environment section’s Front Page: Copenhagen summit: Deal or No Deal and a good – and balanced – article on the Carbon Trading market Carbon trading could be worth twice that of oil in next decade Sub header: Market could be worth $3tn a year but enthusiasm to place it at heart of Copenhagen is matched by growing criticism of concept

    And Australia gets a mention (Geez, The bloody Poms stroking Rudd’s ego!! Not wonder the Liberals are revolting!)

    The speed of that growth will depend on whether the Copenhagen summit gives a go-ahead for a low-carbon economy, but Ager says whatever happens schemes such as the ETS will expand around the globe.

    Last week Australia gave its strongest sign yet that it would establish its own trading market, while the US is moving towards a similar scheme in a bid to find market-based ways to accelerate the transition to a lower carbon economy.

    Many political leaders, especially in industrialised countries, are enthusiastic: carbon markets hold the promise of cost-efficient emission cuts without the need for taxpayer funding. But their enthusiasm to place carbon markets at the heart of the Copenhagen treaty is matched by growing criticism of the concept, and not just from environmentalists opposed to free market solutions.

  13. [sunriseon7

    COMING UP: Kochie in Canberra talking to Lib MPs, the press gallery, John Hewson & Julie Gillard. The latest on the #spill as it happens. 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  14. There are two episodes of the biggest loser to be run about this. The first is the adjectival show. It has been won my Julie Bishop and Nick Minchin.

    Followed by the the literal meaning show and it will be Julie Bishop.

    Ah that’s what the small L and big L stands for!!!

    What a bunch of Losers!!!

  17. BTW: A good site for the non-CC Deniers & True believers (inc. the pro-arms control, which OH & I are passionate about)

    Scientists for Global Responsibility

    # promotes ethical science, design and technology, based on the principles of openness, accountability, peace, social justice, and environmental sustainability.
    # is an independent UK-based membership organisation of over a 1000 natural and social scientists, engineers, IT professionals and architects
    # carries out research, education, and lobbying centred around the military, environmental and political aspects of science, design and technology
    # provides a support network for ethically-concerned professionals in these fields

    PS: Sorry for #1360’s glitch. I obviously did something wrong at the end of “No deal” If the link doesn’t work, I’ll do it again & try to get it right.

  18. From a Sunrise “Viewer” –

    [sunriseon7

    THOUGHT: (Dedicated to Turnbull, Hockey & Abbott) An opportunity is like a shooting star, so make a wish before it’s gone.- Natasha, NSW 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  19. THeir ABC TV in the West are on 3 hour dely – GP has started here, same with 7 &9 – one of the most important days in Austraian political history – the media in 1975 managed to show the dismissal live nationally, yet in 2009, networking has reduced Perth to a relay station.

  23. Well, if Hockey’s running he is a shoo-in.

    If he has any brains he will immediately make some big statements that differentiate him from Minchin and co. There’d be nothing they could do about it, and it would marginalise them, which is what the party needs.

    I’m not holding my breath, though.

  25. Bernard Keane (of Crikey) just told NewsRadio that Kevin Andrews may also throw his hat into the ring. I’d be hoping HE wins the leadership. 👿

  26. Oz Pol Tragic 1361

    Thanks for the great links on Copenhagen. Your points about the coverage are well made. Brazil and Russia coming on board is very important. That really should increase pressure on the opposition to pass the ETS. One of the arguments against it (competitors will have an advantage) dissappears if Brazil signs up, because they are another big rival mineral exporter.

  28. [Nick Minchin was a sceptic on tobacco]
    [Two Liberal dissenters, Senator Minchin and the former West Australian senator Sue Knowles, opposed many of the recommendations, claiming the tobacco industry was over-regulated.]
    [“Senator Minchin wishes to record his dissent from the committee’s statements that it believes cigarettes are addictive and that passive smoking causes a number of adverse health effects for non-smokers,” the committee’s minority report says. “Senator Minchin believes these claims (the harmful effects of passive smoking) are not yet conclusively proved. . . there is insufficient evidence to link passive smoking with a range of adverse health effects.”]

    That’s outright denial.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/nick-minchin-was-a-sceptic-on-tobacco/story-e6frgczf-1225805535960

  29. ooooohhhhh, according to an anonuymous voter in Bradfield, he won’t be voting Liberal and said there will be a voter backlash because of the implosion. – heard on Newsradio.

  31. Confessions

    Interesting re: Minchin. I often wonder if people can realy be that stupid, even acknowledging Minchin’s appalling bungling of the GST regulations when first introduced. (anyone remember how confusing that was? Nick was in charge.) Does he have a vested interest? For those who can check, does Minchin own any shares in BAT or Phillip Morris? Or coal companies now? It might explain his motives in remaining so much a delusionist.

  33. cud chewer:
    [
    “It should be noted that some falsely reported putative errors in the Mann et al.(1998) proxy data claimed by McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) are an artifact of (a) the use by these latter authors of an incorrect version of the Mann et al. (1998) proxy indicator dataset, and (b) their misunderstanding of the methodology used by Mann et al. (1998) to calculate PC series of proxy networks over progressively longer time intervals.”

    In other words, our dear Senator not only can’t be bothered to avail himself of the research staff at his disposal, he’s talking out his arse.
    ]

    That is all five years old. I think there have been one or two more objections since then. In any case, RealClimate is as much a proponent of AGW as McIntyre is a sceptic. Like politics or a courtroom, each side in an argument is very good at putting a convincing case. If you read ClimateAudit it sounds just as convincing the other way. So, who do you believe?

  36. [Well, if Hockey’s running he is a shoo-in.]

    Not too about that this morning. Turnbull on AM just said he has spoken to Howie and Howie thinks the free vote is a no-no. Also on RN, Bronny said Hockey is a deadmeat with this free vote thing.

    Even Grahame Morris on AM said Turnbull is not yet completely dead,

    I think one thing is clear, Hockey is doomed before he has even started.

  38. Thank godness Sky News is unmetered on Bigpiddle – ABC1 still has GP – hopefully it will go to News Special at 5.30aqm WST.

  39. As I said before, there is no point in debating triton on AGW. If you didn’t know better, you would think someone is paying him to trot out these tired old talking points again and again. Real Climate is a site run by actual climate scientists; McIntyre is a Canadian oil geologist. Listening to him about CC is like asking a Marxist for an opinion on capitalism.

  41. Finnigans,

    The free vote is a no-no. It will simply mean there’s another bloody altercation in the lead-up to the election, as they decide whether to make repealing the CPRS their policy.

    But I can’t agree with you about the outcome today. Hockey will win.

  44. Looking for Hewson’s interview on 7, I found my horoscope:

    Common language will sound like poetry for you today, because the universe is sending you an extra large dose of aesthetic energy. What others hear as typical newscasts, televised chatter or just noisy small talk, you hear as beautiful words and wonderful sounds. Verbal communication is captivating, so it’s an exceptional day for eavesdropping. Go out into the world, find a cozy seat somewhere and open up your ears. You definitely won’t be bored.

    That’s it Folks! Abbott & Dutton lead the Liberals to oblivion!

  45. Meanwhile today’s SMH is speculating about a leadership challenge to NSW Premier Nathan Rees today. It seems Frank Sartor might be drafted by the Tripodli/Obeid camp!

  46. [samanthamaiden

    Liberal senator Judith Troeth says she and 8 other senators will vote for Labor’s ETS – Rudd and Wong only need seven votes #spill less than 20 seconds ago from web ]

  47. [But I can’t agree with you about the outcome today. Hockey will win.]

    He might, but a hollow win it will be. Hockey was seduced by all the sweet talkings about him as a unity candidate and then discover to his horror there is little thing called the CPRS that needs to be resolved. So he came up with this half pregnant solution.

    Give me Abbott anytime, at least you know where he stands. He is the answer to my wet dream in his red cossie. 👿

  48. Measure of this crisis? I enjoyed this Oz (online) editorial:

    Politics is about knowing when to draw a line in the sand

    WHEN Tony Abbott appeared on the front page of this newspaper on July 24, arguing for an emissions trading scheme, he was the image of a modern politician. In a wetsuit, riding the surf at Sydney’s Manly beach, Mr Abbott had a book to promote back then, and took the opportunity to invite the voters to see him as a loyal colleague to Malcolm Turnbull as the Opposition Leader battled the sceptics in his ranks. By November 19, Mr Abbott was on Lateline publicly changing his mind and doing his bit to provoke a leadership contest. That he argues he is listening to the grassroots does not absolve him from the charge of opportunism. By changing his position, Mr Abbott has joined those who seem to have forgotten a golden rule of politics — to fight the battles you can win and minimise the impact of those you can’t

    Liberals need to get back to the fights they can win

  49. Nice cartoon in the Age, commenting on Joe’s and the Lib Trogs’ chances of holding back the worldwide move to Climate Change action.

    We may be seeing the death knell of the notion that Australia is different; that everything already proven has to be re-proven here (tobacco, Climate, asylum seekers etc.).

    First it was the “tyranny of distance” that kept us in the dark, isolated from world events. Then it was our media monopolies who took over. But even that’s breaking down now, as anyone can read and absorb anything, from anywhere in the World, instantly.

    If the ETS fails to pass it’ll be a very short-lived, hollow victory as other nations line up to punish us for our cave-dweller antics. If even the OO has turned against the Liberals, at least on this issue, then the game is up.

    I’m still a little surprised that the media give the Libs even the time of day. As they report each contradictory move po-faced, as if these lies and manipulations of the Liberal Party “rules” meant anything in the wider sense, they’ve done themselves no good in the long run.

    I can see a giant flushing-out, a real “out with the old, in with the new” as the Libs wake up tomorrow morning and realise all this bloodletting has been for nothing. All they’ll have is a weak Joe Hockey, armed with promises from the Deniers in the Party not worth the breath they took to utter, and about as long-lasting. How anyone could believe a word Minchin or Abbott or Abetz have to say is beyond me, yet poor old Joe has believed them.

    By all accounts he’s the last of the half-way plausible candidates from the Left side of the party. In prodding him forward, opouring sweet nothings into his ear so that he will fail, the Right think they’ve cleared the way for one of their own to take over unopposed when Joe craches and burns sometime next year. The only thing Minchin and his mates are good at is bastardry and the voters were already sick of that in 2007. How on Earth – and it’s a big Earth – they believe they can continue to get away with it is beyond me.

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